THE RENEWABLES REPORT issue · 2020-02-12 · EARTH, WIND & FIRE Wind and solar are two areas where...

under the radar report

99% of all financial news relates to the 40 to 50 biggestcompanies. So what about the rest? They’re Under the Radar.

Published by Under the Radar Report Pty Ltd 45 Evans Street, Balmain NSW 2041Telephone +61 2 9106 2167 Email [email protected]

Editor Richard Hemming Publisher Caroline MarkABN: 65147404662. AFSL: 409518.

www.undertheradarreport.com.au

SMALL CAPS ISSUE 382 13 FEBRUARY 2020

We kick off our renewables focus with analysis of electric vehicles and batteries and their key inputs: lithium, copper, nickel and cobalt; then we move to wind and finally, hydrogen.

It’s only been two months since our last lithium update, but the battery powered sector is never boring and is endlessly complex, providing opportunities for investors. Since our last Spec Buy recommendation on Orocobre (ORE) its stock has rocketed 47% and has been higher than that. We look at what’s going on and what to do now.

We look in depth at the demand and supply dynamics, as well as the regulatory environment.

Currently less than 1% of the world’s vehicles are EV and about 2% of the annual 86 million new vehicles sales. EVs are estimated to represent 12-14% of new vehicle sales by 2025 and 35% in 2035.

There is nowhere near enough of those commodities listed above to provide for that capacity, but there are also short-term issues, which we discuss.

Because capital markets are so liquid, unlike in times gone by, you don’t need to buy a conglomerate to diversify your portfolio. Small Caps provide investors with access to investments in specialised sectors such as renewables that are unavailable at the big end of town and have the potential to transform your returns.

Reporting season has kicked off! We cover stocks that include proven performers and ones that we hope will be proven performers. They include the niche airline Alliance Aviation (AQZ) and the profitable cannabis stock Ecofibre (EOF).

Come Under the Radar and get high, in more ways than one. n

THE RENEWABLES REPORT the

issueRENEWABLES REPORT 02

It is estimated that cars and trucks account for nearly one fifth of air pollution in the US alone and it is a fact that battery production for EVs continues to grow, most of it emanating out of China.Orocobre (ORE) HoldPilbara Mins (PLS) SellInfigen Energy (IFN) Spec BuyHazer (HZR) Spec Buy

RESEARCH TIP UPDATES 02

Reporting season kicks off. Get in depth analysis and profit making opportunities and clear Buy, Sell, Hold recommendations from Under the Radar.Nick Scali (NCK) Take $$$Ecofibre (EOF) Spec BuyEnero (EGG) HoldAlliance Aviation (AQZ) HoldPraemium (PPS) Spec Buy

“Tesla spiked on news that the automaker’s

battery manufacturing JV with Panasonic generated

its first ever quarterly profit… a sign that the big battery factories around

the world are on the verge of being profitable.”

UNDER THE RADAR REPORT

Small TalkRichard Hemming Editor


13 FEBRUARY 2020RENEWABLES COMMENT

BUY SMALL CAPS TO GET YOUR RENEWABLES FIX We kick off our renewables focus with an update on lithium; then we move to wind and finally hydrogen. Because capital markets are so liquid, unlike in times gone by, you don’t need to buy a conglomerate to diversify your portfolio. Small Caps provide investors with access to investments that are unavailable at the big end of town and have the potential to transform your returns.

LITHIUM UPDATE

It’s only been two months since our last lithium update, but the battery powered sector is never boring and is endlessly complex, providing opportunities for investors. Since our last Spec Buy recommendation on Orocobre (ORE) the stock has rocketed 47%, and has been even higher than that. What’s going on and what to do now are the questions we address.

DEMAND FOR BATTERIES IS THE KEY

It is estimated that cars and trucks account for nearly one fifth of air pollution in the US alone and it is a fact that battery production for those vehicles continues to grow, most of it emanating out of China.

Lithium is crucial in electrification due to its use in the batteries used by electric vehicles (EVs). There is no substitute for lithium and it’s expected to remain the foundation of EV battery chemistry for the foreseeable future. Other key commodities heavily used in EV production include copper, nickel and cobalt.

Currently less than 1% of the world’s vehicles are EV and about 2% of annual 86m new vehicles sales. EVs are estimated to represent 12-14% of new vehicle sales by 2025 and 35% in 2035.*

There is nowhere near enough supply of those commodities listed above to provide for that capacity.

NEAR-TERM PRICE ACTION

In 2019 global lithium supply reached 363k tonnes a year. For the 2025 EV sales estimate to be reached, you would need 871k tonnes/year, leaving a huge shortfall, unless over 500k per annum of new supply comes online between now and then.

The current situation, however, is that the lithium market is oversupplied at about 363k of supply versus 300k of demand. This is the key reason the price of lithium has fallen 50% from its peak in 2016/17 and producers are reducing their supply, which we talked about in Issue 373 in early December 2019. As we said:

Right now we seem to be at the stage of capitulation, which was underlined by mothballing of one of Australia’s biggest lithium mines, Wodgina, in WA’s Pilbara. The project was started by

Mineral Resources (MIN) who sold a controlling stake to US based Albermarle for US$1.3bn (A$1.89bn) and then promptly put the entire project into care and maintenance!

But we also said:

In our opinion, once this happens, opportunities to profit come about. Unlike the hype involved in the sector only two years ago, there is now excessive gloom. This is what contrarian investors like. If a company like Orocobre is profitable now, it just shows how it can escalate returns when the industry turns. For believers in the battery revolution, it’s a buying opportunity.

WHY OUR CONTRARIAN CALL WORKED

Two big things happened that improved sentiment and proves that contrarian investing can quickly pay off handsomely.

In Issue 373 we discussed the dramatic change in sentiment for lithium following the faster than anticipated removal of Chinese government subsidies for EV and other clean technology vehicles, first implemented in 2016. Last month, there was a big rebound in big lithium producers’ stock after China’s government reversed its position, to some extent, indicating its subsidies for buyers would not be further reduced.

Close on the heels of this, shares in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) spiked on news that the automaker’s battery manufacturing joint venture with Panasonic had generated its first ever quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of 2019. Investors saw this as a sign that the big battery factories around the world are on the verge of being profitable, sending shares in major lithium producers like Orocobre up by 10% and more.

WHAT NOW?

EV battery production is growing at close to 20% a year, which is good by any standards, the majority of which is coming out of China.

There is no doubt that the coronavirus will have a short-term impact, as will the current excess supply. The lithium market is not forecast to balance until 2022, when all lithium product is forecast to be converted into batteries.

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Crucially, the long-term the trend is bullish and is what investors will continue to have an eye on, when provides for buying opportunities. This is for increasing battery production, which contributes to a stronger-for-longer lithium price. Adding to this is the correction that is currently occurring in supply. Virtually all the majors have dialled back production in the face of current short-falls; plus, it is highly unlikely that any new production will come on stream in the next two years. As a consequence, if there is a price spike, the major players can respond relatively easily.

These developments underline our proposition that the low cost brine producers from South America are in a much better place than the Australian hard rock producers. Orocobre is a part owner of a brine operation in Argentina, whereas Pilbara Minerals (PLS) owns a hard rock lithium-tantalum project in Western Australia. Since early December Orocobre’s price has rocketed 47%, having initially climbed over 60%, while Pilbara Minerals’ shares have climbed 15%.

EARTH, WIND & FIRE

Wind and solar are two areas where Australia has a competitive edge for obvious reasons. This has been dulled by the lack of government energy policy certainty. Over time we believe renewable energy will become an increasing part of Australia’s energy supply, but there are many complicating factors, which includes the decline in Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGC). These currently provide just under half of the income of Australia’s largest owner of wind turbines, Infigen Energy (IFN). These certificates are generated by accredited renewable energy producers. One LGC is equal to 1MW hour of electricity power and are like carbon credits. They can be sold in the spot or futures market to companies that need to meet their obligations under the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000.

Below is our latest update on Infigen, but if you haven’t read our initiation of coverage on the stock in Issue 371 on 21 November 2019, we highly recommend that you do.

WHAT ABOUT HYDROGEN?

The hydrogen revolution isn’t happening in the future, it’s happening now, as Australia’s chief scientist Alan Finkel has been saying to anyone who’ll listen. Japan has declared its intention to use hydrogen as a mainstream fuel. Underlining this point, its ambition is to have the 2020 Tokyo Olympics run on hydrogen (a goal set a number of years ago). With the exception of wars, Japan generally gets things done.

The share prices of hydrogen producers ITM Power (ITM.L), Sweden’s PowerCell (PCELL.ST) and Ballard Power Systems (BLDP.NASDAQ) have been rocketing due to increasing demand for the gaseous element.

Hydrogen was touted in the late 1990s as the solution to a more

sustainable and clearer planet but fell out of favour as carmakers turned to lithium-ion battery technology due to reducing costs. Today, hydrogen accounts for about 2% of primary energy use globally.

Investors have grown more bullish over the past 12 months as corporates invest in hydrogen fuel cell producers as costs start to fall. Last month, car parts maker Bosch said it would increase its shareholding in UK-listed Ceres Power, a developer of solid oxide fuel cell technology. China is continuing to subsidise hydrogen fuel cell technology.

Also last month, the Hydrogen Council, a global industry body, said that the cost of producing hydrogen could be halved by 2030, making it affordable for applications including trains and other heavy-duty transport such as trucks and coaches. Hydrogen continues to remain well behind lithium-ion in affordability, however.

Find out where Hazer Group (HZR) fits in below and read our initiation report in Issue 365 on 10 October 2019.

*according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie and UBS.

3



OROCOBRELithium producer

Orocobre’s 47% share price increase in two months highlights how this 66.5% owner of the Olaroz lithium brine operation in Argentina is on the right place on the cost curve to benefit from any future increase in lithium prices. Moreover, the company has positive operating cash flow at a time when contract prices are being wound back. Despite a 19% hit to revenue, the company is maintaining production, which has only been wound back 5%. Plus, the group is continuing on its expansion plans, which will increase its profitability by some margin.

Last week the lithium producer released its December quarter result, which showed production of 3.6k tonnes, down 5% on the same period a year earlier, while sales revenues were down 19%. The construction of stage 2 is at 25% completion and at 31 December the company had available cash of US$161m (A$240m) and net cash of US$115.5m (A$172m).

Management has impressed, but the concern remains that stage 1 is yet to deliver expected production rates. Its 13.2k tonne guidance for FY20 is well below nameplate capacity of 17.5k tonnes a year. Stage 2 expansion is underway. We think that expansion to 42.5k tonnes per annum is a stretch based on historic results, but we also believe that the lithium market will turn and Orocobre will be the primary stock that benefits.n

RADAR RATING: A key to the short-term will be the company’s expectations for the lithium price it receives, to be delivered at its upcoming half-year result. The stock is having a good run and we are downgrading to HOLD.

RADAR RATING HOLD (DOWNGRADE FROM SPEC BUY)

ASX CODE ORE

CURRENT PRICE $3.44

MARKET CAP $901M

NET CASH US$115M

DIVIDEND YIELD 0%*

TIP DATE 24 JAN 2018

TIP PRICE $4.65

*FY20 Forecast

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PPS - Share PricePLS - Share Price

ORE - Share PriceNCK - Share Price

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PILBARA MINERALSAustralian hard rock lithium developer

While Orocobre has dialled back production by only 5%, the same cannot be said for Pilbara Minerals, the owner of the Pilgangoora hard rock lithium-tantalum project, 120km south of Port Hedland in Western Australia. During the December quarter, the company produced 14.7k dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate, 31% below the previous September quarter. The company is also dialling back its stage 2 expansion plans, having raised $111.5m at 30 cents a share in share capital during the quarter. Its cash balance was $105.5m as at 31 December, which included $70m from the capital raise.

It’s noticeable that it is still in a net debt position with A$142.7m in long-term debt and is losing money at a rapid rate. In the December quarter it generated operating cash outflow of $14.3m, while for the six months to 31 December $43.1m flew out of the coffers. This is before its investment spending, which for the six months totalled $18.4m. n

RADAR RATING: If it can stay alive there will be money to be made. But it’s a big risk, even for a group so heavily cashed up. We maintain our SELL.

RADAR RATING SELL

ASX CODE PLS

CURRENT PRICE $0.32

MARKET CAP $712M

NET DEBT $37M

DIVIDEND YIELD 0%*

TIP DATE 2 NOV 2017

TIP PRICE $0.75 JU

N 19

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4



INFIGEN ENERGYRenewable energy generator

We initiated coverage on Infigen in late November and subsequently the stock reached a one-year high of $0.81 in early February. But the shares have retreated below $0.71 following media reports asset manager Brookfield was selling 86m shares (9% stake) at $0.71 per share. What does this mean?

It does remove a potential bidder for the Infigen, though it is worth noting that at the time of the purchase of the stake in April 2018 for $0.59 per share, Brookfield indicated it had no intention of making a bid. Regardless, Infigen remains an attractive takeover target for an energy company looking to bulk up its renewable energy generation portfolio – it’s easier to buy than build. Infigen is also be an attractive investment for an asset manager to slot into its alternative energy fund, given the increasing interest in ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) investing.

Infigen is a profitable renewable energy producer that is paying distributions. Its strategy of sourcing renewable power from third parties and investing in firm assets (gas fired power generation and battery capabilities) should allow it to grow revenues and help offset the expected decline in receipts from its Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGC), which expire in 2030. These capabilities should also improve its ability to meet power supply commitments, given wind power generation is inherently intermittent.

In the December quarter update Infigen reiterated prior FY20 outlook commentary, including higher renewable power generation. 1H20 net revenues increased 13% on the same period a year ago, to $119m on a 17% increase in energy sold. As previously advised, FY20 revenues will be weighted to the first half because of higher LGCs prices; seasonality in power generation; and expected decline in wholesale electricity prices. In contrast, cash flow will be weighed to the second half due to cash settlement of LGC contracts. A 1 cent unfranked interim distribution (most likely 100% tax deferred) will be paid for the half. We expect a 1 cent final as well. n

RADAR RATING: The pull back in the share price provides an opportunity to get into this well-established and profitable renewable energy play at a lower entry point. SPEC BUY.

HAZER GROUPClean energy technology

Hazer’s 1H20 cashflow statement showed a slight acceleration in operational cash burn in the second quarter to $2.3m, but this was offset by an equity capital raise. The renewable technology company raised almost $6m at 38 cents a share in November. The company is still very small, so subscribers should place strict limits on the price you pay if you are interested.

Hazer is at the speculative end of Under the Radar’s risk spectrum. The company’s intellectual property relates to the processing of biogas from water waste treatment plants, turning methane into hydrogen and graphite. Methane’s chemical structure is comprised of one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms. Hazer’s process teases each out to make hydrogen for use as a low emission source of energy, as well as synthetic graphite (carbon), which has industrial uses in electric vehicles through powerplants and batteries. The potential is enormous, but the chance of successful widespread profitable implementation over the long-term is low!

RADAR RATING SPEC BUY

ASX CODE IFN

CURRENT PRICE $0.69

MARKET CAP $664M

NET DEBT $535M

DIVIDEND YIELD 2.9%*

TIP DATE 21 NOV 2019

TIP PRICE $0.635


ASX CODE HZR

CURRENT PRICE $0.44

MARKET CAP $50M

NET CASH $10M

DIVIDEND YIELD 0%*

TIP DATE 10 OCT 2019

TIP PRICE $0.41

*FY20 Forecast

*FY20 Forecast

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In addition to its equity raising, the next phase of the project should be funded by a $9.4m grant from the Australian renewable energy authority (ARENA), Hazer announced it had won in early September. The funding is conditional on various steps, including funding the entirety of the commercial demonstration plant, which can be expected to cost up to $20m. Depending on timing, Hazer therefore may need a few million dollars to complete the demonstration plant financing and build schedule. If completed successfully, the plant will deliver 100 tonnes of hydrogen per annum and up to 400 tonnes of synthetic graphite. The plant is intended to demonstrate the system’s efficacy and potential for possible customers. Hazer has entered into hydrogen offtake agreements with a leading industrial player, and into partnership agreements with a key party in Japan.

Hazer’s business strategy in a nutshell is to develop a low emission source of hydrogen from processing existing waste water (feedstock). Its technology can then be implemented locally, at the source of the feedstock; selling the hydrogen to public transport operators and the graphite to renewable vehicle producers. n

RADAR RATING: While we are excited about the possibilities for Hazer’s process, and we are impressed with its management, but there are high capital requirements, not to mention risks. A very small position allows adding to if the company’s delivery justifies it. SPEC BUY.

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RESEARCH TIP UPDATES 13 FEBRUARY 2020

NICK SCALIFurniture retailer

Nick Scali’s interim profit was greeted by investors, maintaining the dividend at 25 cents, although was noticeably light on detail on the outlook for the second half with management reluctant to give guidance.

1H20 underlying NPAT of $20.3m was above of guidance of $17m-$19m but was 5% below the same period a year ago. The furniture retailer has been experiencing difficult trading conditions with like-for-like store sales down 7.5% due to significantly lower store traffic. Sales from new stores were not able to make up for the shortfall with total sales 2.5% lower. The gross margin contracted 60 basis points but remains impressive at 62.2%. Operating cash flow fell 7% to $16.6m, counterbalanced by the group’s net cash.

The half could be described as a tale of two quarters. The first was very weak with store traffic down 10%-15% and written orders were 8.5% lower. A written order is a lead indicator of sales and occurs are when a customer pays a deposit and orders a product. It is recorded as a sale once the product is delivered to the customer. The second quarter saw an improvement in trading conditions with written orders up 3.5% due primarily to the recovery in house prices and improved sales training. Some the 2Q20 orders will flow through as sales in 2H20.

There is great uncertainty highlighted by anaemic sales results. January is the biggest trading month of the year and written orders fell 1.7% with store traffic down 6%. The company pointed to low consumer confidence being exacerbated by the bushfires and coronavirus. Speaking of which, Nick Scali sources around 40% of its products from China and expects deliveries to be delayed by one to two weeks due to factory shutdowns. If the situation deteriorates the delays will be longer. Offsetting this, the retailer can source some products from other countries such and Vietnam and Malaysia.

In hindsight we started taking profits too early, but the reasons for doing so remains: our cautious view on the outlook for discretionary retail spending. The trading environment is tough with heavy discounting by some competitors. Consumer confidence was already fragile even before the shocks of the bushfires and coronavirus. The January 2020 Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Confidence based on a survey over 13-17 January declined 1.8% on December and 6.2% on a year ago to a reading of 93.4 index points due to the bushfires, which more than offset likely positives from higher equity markets and house prices. (A reading below 100 indicates more people are negative than positive). The February reading will be interesting because it factors in the coronavirus. n

RADAR RATING: Nick Scali is a well managed company. We like its vertically integrated business model, which removes the risks of distressed inventory. But risks to already weak consumer confidence have increased and outweigh the positives from an improving housing market. At a PE around 16 times it is not cheap. Use the share price strength to realise some gains if you haven’t already done so. TAKE PROFITS.

RADAR RATING TAKE $$$

ASX CODE NCK

CURRENT PRICE $7.95

MARKET CAP $644M

NET CASH $10M


TIP DATE 18 OCT 2012

TIP PRICE $1.40

*FY20 Forecast

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ECOFIBREHemp products

We maintain our positive view on Ecofibre’s prospects following its interim result release, which highlighted strong revenue growth, gross margin expansion and cost control. The only real disappointment was the lack of full year guidance.

The 1H20 result met guidance of reported NPAT exceeding the $6m achieved in FY19. NPAT came in at $7.1m, reflecting a surge in revenues, which more than doubled from $13m to $29m driven by continued momentum in the core Ananda Health business (97% of revenue). Ecofibre’s presence in US independent pharmacies has continued to expand, being bolstered by increasing distributors and buying groups.

The company is maturing nicely from a start-up into a business with legs. Operating expenses grew only 49% on tight cost management and the operating leverage in the business, with the majority of these costs being fixed. The gross profit margin expanded to 81% (65% in 1H19 and 77% in 2H19) as a result of improved efficiencies. The EBITDA/sales margin also widened to 32% (1H19: 3%; 2H19: 24%).

No specific guidance for FY20 was given though commentary was generally positive. Ananda Health is seeing more competition from new entrants but there is also greater emphasis on quality by customers and increasing scrutiny by regulators (FDA), all of which serve as barriers to entry for established players like Ecofibre. We expect pricing discipline to be maintained and that the company won’t chase market share at the expense of profit margins.

Steady sales growth is expected for Ananda Foods and the segment expected to be breakeven in 2H20 (1H20 PBT: $0.8m). Hemp Black continues to progress well with product development with early commercial activity expected in 4Q20. n

RADAR RATING: Ecofibre has quickly established a leading position as a quality company in a slightly edgy sector, with professional management focussed on capturing key elements of the hemp value chain, which is newly legal through much of the US. It is profitable and delivering strong growth. If this continues there is a substantial opportunity, but competitive threats could become more of a factor. Keep positions small and be aware that the stock is highly illiquid. SPEC BUY.


ASX CODE EOF

CURRENT PRICE $2.90

MARKET CAP $914M

NET CASH $23M

DIVIDEND YIELD 0%*

TIP DATE 17 JUL 2019

TIP PRICE $2.93

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ENEROMarketing services

The advertising and marketing group’s 1H20 result confused many investors. Upon its release last week, EGG initially sold off almost 10% on news earnings were down 7%, but then rallied upon consideration of management’s remarks and the company’s US revenue growth. We have been lucky with some of our earlier calls, most recently with a Spec Buy upgrade at $1. As you’ll see, the result included complicating factors.

Certainly, from our perspective there was much to like. Operating cashflow was strong at $12.9m, as was operating EBITDA, which increased by 10% to $11m on a revenue increase of 6.8% to $68m. Net cash of $12.5m reflects contingent consideration of $24.5m payable through 2021-22, indicating that $37m gross cash is available for use.

Contingent consideration usually reflects the additional amount Enero must pay for acquisitions if performance hurdles are met. You must also bear in mind that these acquired businesses will contribute to the cash available for payment.

Enero’s EPS was down due to higher tax expense and lower earnings. The impact of AASB16 was also negative. This involves the recognition of property leases as Right-To-Use assets and lease liabilities as borrowings. For 1H20 it added $19m in lease debt and $14m in lease assets onto the balance sheet, with the difference adjusted through reserves.

This is a Small Cap with a global business, where international was 52% of total revenue and 59% of EBITDA. Revenue and EBITDA were down in UK and Europe, but were sharply higher in the US, which is now almost the same size in revenue, and twice as profitable, as the UK and Europe. It also contributed the same as Australia at the EBITDA line.

It is also a well-diversified business with over 400 clients. Enero’s largest client represented 11% of revenue, and the top 10 represent 38% of total revenue.

The stock is down over 20% from our brief take profits recommendation, but we think it is not the time to increase holdings even though we like the company and the valuation is not demanding. Since a new CEO has yet to be appointed, an appropriate level of caution is warranted while we wait for the new appointment to be announced. n

RADAR RATING: We have been fans of Enero for some years, and have captured trading profits a few times for subscribers and once for the portfolio. The share price doubled since our last recommendation, and we briefly took profits again at $2.23. Existing holdings should be retained for further longer-term earnings and dividend growth. HOLD.

RADAR RATING HOLD

ASX CODE EGG

CURRENT PRICE $1.85

MARKET CAP $159M

NET CASH $13M


TIP DATE 13 JUL 2012

TIP PRICE $0.60

*FY20 Forecast

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ALLIANCE AVIATIONContract aviation services

Alliance reported record 1H20 revenue and profit before tax up 10% at $151m and $15.5m respectively. The company’s workforce flew record flying hours, although only a marginal increase over the same period a year ago, which means that improved yields were responsible for most of the revenue increase. An interim dividend of 7.3 cents maintains a healthy payout, which is affordable and response to the acquisitive interest of Qantas (QAN), which took a 20% stake almost exactly one year ago.

There was a notable change in revenue mix, with 34% lower wet lease revenue of $17.5m, offset by higher contract, aviation services and charter revenue. A wet lease involves the provision of crew and aircraft by the lessor to the lessee.

The company’s fleet size increased through the delivery of further aircraft, which enabled Alliance to offer some ad hoc charters and short-term contracts. Alliance also undertook a heavy load of base maintenance work on its aircraft in the first half to position the company for further growth. From 30 aircraft a few years ago, the current fleet of 40-42 aircraft is optimal for its current market position.

Alliance maintained a positive outlook for the rest of the financial year, pointing out that the mining industry remains strong, with planned schedule increases expected to deliver revenue growth, while higher profit margin wet lease revenues remain stable. Business may be marginally affected by lower inbound tourism, but diverse revenue streams are an important source of stability in an uncertain market.

Total capital expenditure of $28m included growth expenditure on four new aircraft of $6.6m, while the balance was spent on the accelerated maintenance programs. Capex will reduce by 50% in 2H20, which should translate to strong free cashflow (operating cashflow minus investment spending). The balance sheet remained relatively strong with net debt of $64m. n

RADAR RATING: Management has successfully transformed Alliance into a broadly based aviation services group that can produce consistent earnings from a variety of sources. We think the company will continue to pay healthy dividends. HOLD.

RADAR RATING HOLD

ASX CODE AQZ

CURRENT PRICE $2.66

MARKET CAP $339M

NET DEBT $64M


TIP DATE 14 SEP 2016

TIP PRICE $0.83

*FY20 Forecast

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PRAEMIUMWealth management servicesThe financial planning tools provider delivered a strong 1H20 result as we had anticipated. Underlying EBITDA increased 24% on 1H19 to a record $7.0m on net revenue (revenue after commissions) growth of 12%. NPAT came in at $1.4m versus $0.5m. The strong performance was underpinned by 30% growth in total funds under administration (FUA) to $20.3bn, which itself reflects investment in its technology, product offering, sales and marketing. As expected Praemium did not declare a dividend and we do expect it to do so in 2H20.

The Australian business was the key driver of group performance with EBITDA up 31% to $8.5m on 13% revenue growth. The profit margin at EBITDA/sales expanded from 44% to 49%. International remains loss making, with the EBITDA loss decreasing slightly to $1.0m (Asia; $0.4m and UK $0.6m) although net revenues rose 7%, ahead of 6% cost growth.

Management outlook commentary was positive. Praemium expects to continue to invest heavily in its business, although noticeably the group didn’t provide FY20 earnings guidance. We are most interested in when the international business is expected to breakeven and was no doubt a big factor in the shares closing weaker on the day of the result

Overall, the fundamentals look strong. Operating cash flow was up from $2.0m to $3.8m. The group has no debt and cash of $14.7m, well above regulatory cash requirement of $5m. n

RADAR RATING: The underlying business has good momentum and the offshore strategy is delivering FUA growth. The challenge for management is to convert this growth into meaningful and sustainable results at the bottom line. Operating leverage will help but FUA growth needs to be maintained. If it can, earnings and the share price should follow. Being linked to investment market performance makes the stock speculative. SPEC BUY.


ASX CODE PPS

CURRENT PRICE $0.47

MARKET CAP $192M

NET CASH $15M

DIVIDEND YIELD 0%*

TIP DATE 5 JUN 2019

TIP PRICE $0.33

*FY20 Forecast

JUN

19

JUN

19

JUN

19

JUN

19

JUN

19

JUN

19

JUN

19

JUN

19

JUL

19

JUL

19

JUL

19

JUL

19

JUL

19

JUL

19

JUL

19

JUL

19

AUG

19

AUG

19

AUG

19

AUG

19

AUG

19

AUG

19

AUG

19

AUG

19

SEP

19

SEP

19

SEP

19

SEP

19

SEP

19

SEP

19

SEP

19

SEP

19

OCT

19

OCT

19

OCT

19

OCT

19

OCT

19

OCT

19

OCT

19

OCT

19

NOV

19

NOV

19

NOV

19

NOV

19

NOV

19

NOV

19

NOV

19

NOV

19

DEC

19

DEC

19

DEC

19

DEC

19

DEC

19

DEC

19

DEC

19

DEC

19

JAN

20

JAN

20

JAN

20

JAN

20

JAN

20

JAN

20

JAN

20

JAN

20

FEB

20

FEB

20

FEB

20

FEB

20

FEB

20

FEB

20

FEB

20

FEB

20

MAR

19

MAR

19

MAR

19

MAR

19

MAR

19

MAR

19

MAR

19

APR

19

APR

19

APR

19

APR

19

APR

19

APR

19

APR

19

APR

19

MAY

19

MAY

19

MAY

19

MAY

19

MAY

19

MAY

19

MAY

19

MAY

19





SOUR

CE: A

SX

SOUR

CE: A

SX

SOUR

CE: A

SX

SOUR

CE: A

SX

SOUR

CE: A

SX

SOUR

CE: A

SX

SOUR

CE: A

SX

SOUR

CE: A

SX

$$

$$

$$

$$

0.700

0.600

0.500

0.400

0.800

3.750

3.250

2.750

2.250

8.000

0.800

0.700

0.600

0.500

0.500

3.500

3.000

2.500

2.000

1.500

3.000

2.800

2.600

2.400

0.700

7.500

0.450

0.600

7.000

0.400

0.500

6.500

0.350

0.400

6.000

0.300

0.300

5.500

0.250

0.3000.200

5.000

0.4000.200

1.0002.200

11


13 FEBRUARY 2020

WARNING: This publication is general information only, which means it does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider whether a particular recommendation is appropriate for your needs before acting on it, and we recommend seeking advice from a financial adviser or stockbroker before making a decision.

DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared from a wide variety of sources, which Under the Radar Report Pty Ltd (UTRR), to the best of its knowledge and belief, considers accurate. You should make your own enquiries about the investments and we strongly suggest you seek advice before acting upon any recommendation. All information displayed in this publication is subject to change without notice. UTRR does not give any representation or warranty regarding the quality, accuracy, completeness or merchantability of the information or that it is fit for any purpose. The content in this publication has been published for information purposes only and any use of or reliance on the information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. To the maximum extent permitted by law, UTRR will not be liable to any party in contract, tort (including for negligence) or otherwise for any loss or damage arising either directly or indirectly as a result of any act or omission in reliance on, use of or inability to use any information displayed in this publication. Where liability cannot be excluded by law then, to the extent permissible by law, liability is limited to the resupply of the information or the reasonable cost of having the information resupplied. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any manner, and no further dissemination of this publication is permitted without the express written permission of Under the Radar Pty Ltd.

Published by Under the Radar Report Pty Ltd 45 Evans Street, Balmain NSW 2041Telephone +61 2 9106 2167 Email [email protected]

Editor Richard Hemming Publisher Caroline MarkABN: 65147404662. AFSL: 409518.

Website www.undertheradarreport.com.au

99% of all financial news relates to the 40 to 50 biggestcompanies. So what about the rest? They're Under the Radar.

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