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The Rise of Us The Dynamics of Smartmobs kevin lim Cyberculturalist university at buffalo Fall 2008
The Rise of UsThe Dynamics of Smartmobs
kevin limCyberculturalist
university at buffaloFall 2008
Wisdom of Crowds?
“Under the right
circumstances,
groups are remarkably
intelligent, and are
often smarter than the
smartest people in
them” - Surowiecki
Wisdom of Crowds?
Conditions for wisdom:
1.Diversity of Opinion
2.Independence
3.Decentralization
4.Aggregation
The Social ContractDirect democracy
Individual mistakes in
either direction would
cancel each other out
Accurate “general will”
Rousseau (1968)
Collective Intelligence
A CI pioneer, George Pór, defined the collective intelligencephenomenon as “the capacity of a human community to evolvetoward higher order complexity thought, problem-solving andintegration through collaboration and innovation.”
Popular Examplesof collective intelligence
Wikipedia vs. Britannica
Among 42 entries tested in both encyclopedias,the difference in accuracy was not great(Nature, 15th Dec 2005)
On science: Wikipedia had 4 inaccuracies;Britannica had 3.
Citizen Journalismas collective intelligence
Commercializationof collective intelligence
“And, in just 30 seconds,Amazon sold out of all 1,000 units
of the Xbox at $100.”- Patti Freeman Evans (Jupiter Research)
CyberWarfareand collective intelligence
Before
After
Ogleearth.com, 16th April 2006
New satellite imagery ofIran's nuclear sites - nowon Google Earth
Guardian: Gazan rocket launches planned with Google EarthThursday, October 25, 200
Types of Usersand collective intelligence
Types of Digg Users1. Readers: Alex guesstimates that "ten to twenty percent ofthose ever click ‘digg’".
2. Diggers: 10-20% says Alex. He also says these are the leastimportant members of the system
3.. Hardcore Diggers: "people who sit in the queue ofsubmitted stories and watch for breaking news that shouldmake its way up to the front page, or report stories as beingspam or irrelevant."
4. Submitters: people who submit stories. It’s highlycompetitive and difficult to be the first to post a successfulstory (one that makes the front page).
5. Publishers: "often bloggers who want to get readership fortheir content.”
- Alex Bosworth, Dec 2005
User MotivationsReciprocityPerhaps the most anticipated factor that motivates people to give.
ReputationThe willingness to help others can all work to increase one's prestigein a community.
Sense of EfficacyThe feeling an individual has that makes them feel that they havesome effect on the environment around them.
NeedOne may produce and contribute a public good for the simple reasonthat a person or the groups as a whole has a need for it.
AttachmentThe commitment one has to the group, one’s utility.
Side-effectPrivate behavior makes cost of sharing near zero.
AGAINST Wisdom of Crowds
The central thesis of this book is
that the amateurism introduced
by blogs (Blogger, Wordpress
and Movable Type), videos
(YouTube) and wikis (Wikipedia)
has eroded our culture towards a
dangerous world where the
distinction between expert and
amateur is being obscured and
only the loudest and the extreme
dominate in the digital world.
FOR Wisdom of Crowds
theory.isthereason.com
Questionsand hopefully answers
