Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
What is the role of social sciences and humanities (SSH)
in Futures Research?
This presentation is based on the Mapping Foresight (Popper, 2009) research carried out for the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN)
now transformed into the EFP (2009-2012)
Rafael [email protected]
A research question inspiring the work of theiKNOW project (www.iknowfutures .eu)
and the Mapping activities of the European Foresight Platform (EFP)
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Outline
1. Is futures research a fashion?
• How to map interdisciplinarity in futures research?
• What is the role of SSH in futures research?
• Final remarks and recommendations for the future of SSH?
• References and further reading
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Section 1: Is futures research
(foresight)a fashion?
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
About futures research& foresight
“The future’s not what it used to be”
As argued in Miles (2005, 2008) and Miles and Keenan (2002) , Foresight is a set of approaches to bringing longer-term considerations into decision-making, with the process of engaging informed stakeholders in analysis and dialogue being important alongside the formal products that can be codified and disseminated.
• Policy-making approaches adopt a longer-term perspective in the form of strategic planning, allowing flexibility and preparedness to deal with uncertainty, disruptive events and innovations.
• Participative approaches involve interaction of wider ranges of stakeholders and experts in envisioning the future.
• Prospective (forward-looking) approaches involve traditional forecasting efforts, using systematic methods to explore future dynamics, enabling development of coping strategies.
Policy-making
Participative ProspectiveFORESIGHT
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Key features (phases & elements) of a systematic foresight process
Popper (2008)
Today’s futures research is increasingly becominga key and systematicinstrument
for the development
and implementation of research and innovation policy
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Key features of foresight methods:The Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008)
R. Popper (2008)R. Popper (2008)
SSH’s role
WhatCreativity ?
WhatEvidence ?
WhatExpertise ?
WhatInteraction ?
SSH’s role
CONTEXTUALISATION
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Evolution of national (technology) foresight programmes
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Since
1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi
Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991
USA Critical Technologies Others
New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992
Germany BMFT, T 21 Others
South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993
Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi
UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994
France Technology Delphi Delphi
1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others
Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi
Austria Delphi Austria Delphi
Japan 6th STA survey Delphi 1996
Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others
Spain ANEP Delphi + Others
Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others
Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997
Finland SITRA Foresight Others
South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others
Germany Delphi ’98 Delphi
Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998
New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others
UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others
Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others
Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi
South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi
Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others
1999
China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)
Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi
Brazil Prospectar Delphi
Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others
France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others
2000
Portugal ET2000 Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others
Chile TFP Chile Delphi
Germany FUTUR Others 2001
Czech Republic TF Exercise Others
Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others
UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others
Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others
Denmark National TF Denmark Others
2002
USA NIH Roadmap USA Others
China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others
Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others
Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others 2003
Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others
Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others
South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others
Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others
France FuturRIS Others
France AGORA Others
Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others
2004
Russia Key Technologies Others
Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others
Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others
Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others
Finland Finnsight Others
Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others
2005
USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others
Finland SITRA Foresight Others 2006
Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others
Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.
Futures research
(foresight) is not
a mere fashion!
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Mapping Foresight (Popper, 2009)
• EFMN Mapping has produced a vast amount of information on foresight unprecedented in the world
• It has been useful to understand foresight practicesin Europe and other regions of the world
2005 2006 2007 20082004
437 cases L2> 800
L0 & L1
767 cases L2> 1400 L0 & L1
100 cases
846 cases L2> 1600L0 & L1
2008
> 1000 cases L2> 2000 cases in
Levels 0 & 1
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Section 2: How to map
interdisciplinarityin futures research?
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Step 1: mapping foresight practiceslinking practices to Frascati research areas
Step 2: identifying key areas‘knowledge hubs’‘knowledge junctions’
Step 3: recognising key sub-areas ‘knowledge maps’
Step 4: mapping foresight outputs(e.g. recommendations, wild cards, weak signals, roadmaps, scenarios, etc)
linking outputs to EC FP7 research areas & GCs
Step 5: recognising emerging and interdisciplinary issues
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
mapping linkages to research areas using the FRASCATI taxonomy
79
213
117
370
62
75
92
25
335
117
13
11
17
26
25
17
270
213
140
79
132
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Agricultural sciences
Medical sciences
Natural Sciences
Humanities
Social sciences
Engineering and technology
Engineering and technology Social sciences Humanities Natural Sciences Medical sciences Agricultural sciences
2526Humanities
• In total, we mapped 841 cases against the Frascati taxonomy
• The results show that Engineering and Technology (44%), Social Sciences (40%), and Natural Sciences (32%) are by far the most popular categories characterising our foresight sample.
• These results reveal the existence of uneven or asymmetric interconnectionsbetween research areas at an aggregated level.
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Identifying key research areas‘knowledge hubs’
The figure shows very strong linkages between:
• Engineering & Tech. ,• Natural Sciences , and• Social Sciences.
These three areas can be considered as the main‘knowledge hubs’ of futures research.
These results simply confirm the interdisciplinary nature of foresight.
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Identifying key research areas‘knowledge junctions’
A Natural sciencesA06 Biological Science
B Engineering & TechnologyB09 Environmental EngineeringB13 Communications Technologies
C Medical sciencesC12 Public Health and Health Services
D Agricultural sciencesD01 Crop and Pasture Production
E Social sciencesE04 Policy and Political Science
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Policy and Political Scienceplays a significant role in SSH Futures
7%
8%
8%
9%
21%
22%
26%
32%
34%
66%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Sociology
Demography
Law, justice and law enforcement
Political Science
Policy and Administration
Education
Commerce, management, tourism and services
Economics
Studies in human society
Policy and Political Science
Top 10 linkages between futures research & social sciences(335 cases)
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Recognising ‘key sub-areas’in the ‘foresight knowledge maps’
A Natural sciencesA04 Chemical Science (key broker)A06 Biological Science
B Engineering & TechnologyB02 Industrial Biotechnology & Food SciencesB04 Manufacturing EngineeringB09 Environmental Engineering (key broker)B10 Materials EngineeringB11 Biomedical EngineeringB12 Electrical and Electronic EngineeringB13 Communications Technologies (key broker)
C Medical sciencesC01 Medicine GeneralC05 Pharmacology & Pharmaceutical Sciences C12 Public Health & Health Services (key broker)
D Agricultural sciencesD01 Crop and Pasture Production (key broker)
E Social sciencesE01 EducationE02 EconomicsE03 Commerce, management, tourism & servicesE04 Policy and Political Science (key broker)E05 Studies in human society
In a way, Social Sciences functions as the ‘binder’ of research topics in foresight studies. This is quite the opposite with Humanities.
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Linking outputs to EC FP7 research areasand Grand Challenges (GCs)
2009 2010
blogs
social networks
interviewsinterviews Etc.
journals
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities researchprototype
iKNOW Oracleinterconnecting knowledge
(convergence-interdisciplinary)
new research questions
impact on Grand Challenges
identification of problems
identification of solutions
relevance to FP7 research
pattern recognition
emerging issues
informing policy
possible futures
sense-making
recognising emerging and interdisciplinary issues
www.iknowfutures.eu
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Section 3: What is the role of SSHin futures research?
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
The role of SS&H in Futures Research / Foresight
E Social sciencesE01 EducationE02 EconomicsE03 Commerce, management, tourism & servicesE04 Policy and Political ScienceE05 Studies in human societyE06 Behavioural and cognitive sciencesE07 Law, justice and law enforcement
F HumanitiesF01 Journalism and curatorial studiesF02 The artsF03 Language and cultureF04 History and archaeologyF05 Philosophy and religion
B Engineering & Technology
Areas with more than 100 interconnections
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
The role of SS&H in Futures Research / Foresight
B Engineering & TechnologyA Natural sciencesC Medical sciences
E Social sciencesE01 EducationE02 EconomicsE03 Commerce, management, tourism & servicesE04 Policy and Political ScienceE05 Studies in human societyE06 Behavioural and cognitive sciencesE07 Law, justice and law enforcement
F HumanitiesF01 Journalism and curatorial studiesF02 The artsF03 Language and cultureF04 History and archaeologyF05 Philosophy and religion
Areas with more than 75 interconnections
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
The role of SS&H in Futures Research / Foresight
B Engineering & TechnologyA Natural sciencesC Medical sciencesD Agricultural sciences
E Social sciencesE01 EducationE02 EconomicsE03 Commerce, management, tourism & servicesE04 Policy and Political ScienceE05 Studies in human societyE06 Behavioural and cognitive sciencesE07 Law, justice and law enforcement
F HumanitiesF01 Journalism and curatorial studiesF02 The artsF03 Language and cultureF04 History and archaeologyF05 Philosophy and religion
Areas with more than 50 interconnections
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
The role of SS&H in Futures Research / Foresight
E Social sciencesE01 EducationE02 EconomicsE03 Commerce, management, tourism & servicesE04 Policy and Political ScienceE05 Studies in human societyE06 Behavioural and cognitive sciencesE07 Law, justice and law enforcement
F HumanitiesF01 Journalism and curatorial studiesF02 The artsF03 Language and cultureF04 History and archaeologyF05 Philosophy and religion B Engineering & Technology
A Natural sciencesC Medical sciencesD Agricultural sciencesF Humanities
Areas with more than 25 interconnections
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
The role of SSH in Foresightis not only
an European phenomenon.
In particular,Latin America has much in common with
Europe,and the role of
SSH is one of those
commonalities.
Research areas Internat. Europe Latin A. North A. Asia Oceania
935 cases mapped 56 599 101 92 75 13
Philosophy and religionHistory and archaeology
Language and cultureThe arts
Journalism and curatorial studiesHumanities
Law, justice and law enforcementBehavioural and cognitive sciences
Studies in human societyPolicy and Political Science
Commerce, management, tourism and servicesEconomicsEducation
Social sciencesOther Agricultural, Veterinary and Env. Sciences
Land, Parks and Agriculture ManagementFisheries SciencesForestry Sciences
Veterinary SciencesAnimal Production
HorticultureCrop and Pasture Production
Agricultural sciencesOther Medical and Health Sciences
Human Movement and Sports ScienceComplementary/alternative Medicine
Public Health and Health ServicesNursing
Clinical SciencesOptometry
DentistryNeurosciences
Medical PhysiologyPharmacology and Pharmaceutical Sciences
Medical MicrobiologyMedical Biochemistry and Clinical Chemistry
ImmunologyMedicine generalMedical sciences
Other Engineering and TechnologyInterdisciplinary Engineering
Communications TechnologiesElectrical and Electronic Engineering
Biomedical EngineeringMaterials Engineering
Environmental EngineeringGeomatic Engineering
Civil EngineeringResources Engineering
Chemical EngineeringManufacturing Engineering
Aerospace EngineeringIndustrial Biotechnology and Food Sciences
Architecture, urban and buildingEngineering and technology
Biological SciencesEarth Sciences
Chemical SciencePhysical science
Information, computing and comm. scienceMathematical science
Natural Sciences
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Section 4: Final remarks and
recommendations for the future of SSH
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Research Areas A B C D E F
A Natural Sciences 79% 26% 27% 34% 6%
B Engineering & Technology 58% 21% 20% 32% 5%
C Medical Sciences 50% 56% 27% 54% 8%
D Agricultural Sciences 55% 56% 29% 47% 10%
E Social Sciences 27% 35% 22% 19% 7%
F Humanities 65% 65% 42% 50% 96%
Final remarks (1/2)
• Social Sciences plays a vital role in futures research on Humanities (96%), an important role in foresight on Medical (54%) and Agricultural (47%) sciences, and a moderate role in foresight on Natural Sciences (34%) and Engineering and Technology (32%)
Research Areas A B C D E F
A Natural Sciences 79% 26% 27% 34% 6%
B Engineering & Technology 58% 21% 20% 32% 5%
C Medical Sciences 50% 56% 27% 54% 8%
D Agricultural Sciences 55% 56% 29% 47% 10%
E Social Sciences 27% 35% 22% 19% 7%
F Humanities 65% 65% 42% 50% 96%
Social Sciences Humanities
• Engineering and technology plays a moderate role in futures research on Social Sciences (35%)
• All research areas play an important role in futures research on Humanities (from 42% to 96%)
• Humanities seems to play an insignificant (!) role in futures research on Social Sciences (7%)
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Final remarks (2/2)
• Social Sciences is the ‘binder’ of most research top ics in foresight– Except for…
– Behavioural and Cognitive Sciences and
– Law, Justice and Law Enforcement,most SS topics are highly interconnected with other areas of the Frascati taxonomy.
• The results highlight the cohesive role of foresight on sub-areas of the SS– This is mainly because foresight projects are designed in such a way that, at some
time in the process, linkages are established with the policy dimension or (using the Frascati terminology) with sub-area Policy and Political Science.
• This is quite the opposite with research within Hum anities , which have the least salient links to other research topics.
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
Recommendations
These findings suggest the need:
1. To promote futures research on Social Sciences area s, such as:– behavioural and cognitive sciences and law, justice and law enforcement;
and Humanities areas , such as:– journalism, religion or history, for example.
2. To involve SSH researchers in activities aimed at i nforming and shaping foresight practices , for example:
– By challenging and enriching the relevance of research methods
– By continuously contextualising research processes and products
3. To inform SSH researchers, policy-makers and busin ess communities about the role of SSH in futures research , such recognition could:
– increase the profile of SSH;
– increase the interdisciplinary nature of research, networking and co-operation; and
– help identify more coherent and bottom-up Grand Challenges by interconnecting knowledge from a wide range of domains.
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
References andfurther reading
Popper (2009) socio-economic sciences and humanities research
References & further reading
The Handbook of Technology Foresight (2008)Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Michael Keenan, Ian Miles and Rafael Popper (Eds)
Foresight, Volume 10, Number 6, 2008Editors’ introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring NetworkMaurits Butter, Felix Brandes, Michael Keenan and Rafael PopperComparing foresight “style” in six world regionsMichael Keenan and Rafael PopperHow are foresight methods selected?Rafael Popper
Mapping Foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future (2009)Rafael Popper
EFP