46
The Role of Solar in Clean Energy Transition IEEE PES Meeting
The Role of Solar in Clean Energy Transition
IEEE PES Meeting
2
Solar in Clean Energy Transformation
• Global Electricity Supply “is being rapidly
transformed by the rise of renewables”
• Increased Complexities in providing reliable,
resilient, secure & affordable electricity
• Need to address many technical challenges to
transform our entire energy system
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
3
PV Started as a Vision
• Images from: Lucent / Bell Labs
…of abundant, clean, affordable electricity.
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
4
The Vision Is Reality. We Now Live In A World Where…
• Electricity can be supplied
at large scale by safe,
clean, carbon-free, and
affordable PV sources.
• The cost challenge has
been resolved
• System Flexibility is the
next challenge to high
penetration
Solar is Competitive Today
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
6
Solar Journey | Economics
…Unsubsidized Solar at
~30-40 Cents per Kilowatt-Hour
in US
— GTM Data, 2008
Uneconomical
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
7
Solar Journey | Economics
Uneconomical
Grid Parity
…Cheapest Solar Ever?
Austin Energy Buys PV at
5 Cents per Kilowatt-
Hour
— GTM, March 2014
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
8
Solar Journey | Economics
Uneconomical
Grid Parity
Lowest Cost
New Generation
Source: Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis, Version 12.0
3.6-4.4c/kWhUnsubsidized
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
9
PV Experience Curve
• “Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Trajectories and challenges”, Haegel et al, , Science Mag, 14 APRIL 2017, VOL 356 ISSUE 6334
2019$0.30/W
~640 GWdc
~3 TW by ’30?
~22% Learning Curve
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
10
Solar Journey | Economics/LCOE Reduction
BOS,
24%
Modules,
31%
Opex,
5%
Cost of
Capital,
40%
1998
BOS,
28%
Modules,
27%
Opex,
6%
Cost of
Capital
39%
2008
BOS,
32%
Modules,
18%
Opex,
17%
Cost of
Capital,
33%
2018
Key Focus on
Reducing High
Module Cost
Significant Module &
Some BOS Cost
Reduction• Source: First Solar Analysis
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
11
Challenge: Reduce LCOE 50% By the Next Decade
• Source: First Solar Analysis
2030
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
12
Solar Journey | Economics
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Note: Coal and Gas benchmark from IHS Markit Global scenarios
© 2018 IHS Markit
$/
MW
h (r
eal Onshore Wind
LCOE
Solar PV
LCOE
Coal – Marginal Cost
Gas – Marginal
Cost
Uneconomical
Grid Parity
Below Marginal
Cost of CoalLowest Cost
New Generation
Solar Market is Growing
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
14
Solar Journey | Key Driver: Climate Change
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Global Surface Air Temperature Anomaly
22 out of the last 26 years 3 STD Dev from the mean … including 2018
Climate Change
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
15
Solar Journey | Market
… FERC: 20GW of coal
capacity headed for
retirement by 2020
— Utility Dive, January 2018
Climate Change
Traditional Fuel
Replacements
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
16
Solar Journey | Market
Climate Change
Traditional Fuel
Replacements
Electrification
Bloomberg New Energy Finance – New Energy Outlook 2018
• Electricity sector only~ 20% of the emission
• Transportation & heating the vast majority
• Plan by ‘30 … 80% carbon free energy
• 30 GWs renewables … 10GWs storage
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
17
IEA: Global Electricity Supply “is being transformed by the rise of renewables”
64%
renewables
48% solar
& wind
Climate Change
Traditional Fuel
Replacements
Generation
Mix ShiftElectrification
Bloomberg New Energy Finance – New Energy Outlook 2018
29% fossil
fuels
by 20500%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historical world power generation mix NEO2018 power generation mix
Coal
Gas
Oi l
Hydro
Nuclear Wind
Solar
Other
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
18
Solar PV is Growing Rapidly Globally
Sources: GTM and BNEF Data
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
10 X
Growth in
a decade
>1TW
~100 GW
~120 GWdc installed in ’19
~510 GW
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Insta
lla
tio
n in
GW
dc
~630 GW
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
19
US Cumulative Solar PV Installations
• Cumulative Solar Installations. Source: PV Installation - GTM PV Pulse February 2018. Solar PV LCOE from Lazard LCOE 11.0 Analysis
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
GWdc
$/MWh
~75 GW
~114 GW
$46/MWh
US Installations
$339/MWh
Utility Solar PV LCOE (Unsubsidized)Reduced 85%
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
20
SunShot 2030: More than Double the Solar in US w 3c/kWh in 2030
20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
% o
f U
.S. E
lectr
icity f
rom
Sola
r
SunShot 2030
Goal (3¢/kWh)
Business As Usual
Source: W. Cole et al., NREL. Low cost storage scenario has battery capital costs
declining to $100/kWh in 2040 for an 8 hour battery (W. Cole, et al., IEEE 2016).
33% with 971 GW2050
~2% with 52 GW2017
17% with 405 GW
2030
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
21
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
+ Low Cost Storage
($100/kWh in 2040)
Low Cost Storage Enables Significantly More Solar
21
% o
f U
.S. E
lectr
icity fro
m S
ola
r
Source: W. Cole et al., NREL. Low cost storage scenario has battery capital costs
declining to $100/kWh in 2040 for an 8 hour battery (W. Cole, et al., IEEE 2016).
SunShot 2030
Goal (3¢/kWh)
55% with 1,618 GW
2050
Developments Addressing Grid Integration Challenges
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
23
Geographic Dispersion Attenuates Short-Term Intermittency
~20 minutes
Large Plant Size Attenuates Impact
of Cloud Passages on Power Output
Intermittency
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
24
Source: Energy Transition: The German Energiwende, July 2016
So
larS
ola
r Wind
Nuclear
Coal and Gas Hydro
Conventional
Pumped Storage
Bio Mass
Wind
Hydro
Need flexible, dispatchable power generators that can
ramp up and down every day within just a few hoursIntermittency
A week in May 2012 A week in May 2020
Renewables Driving Significant Change in Operations
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
25
Utility-Scale Solar Supports Grid Reliability & Stability
Intermittency
Sources: (1) NERC: 2012 Special Assessment Interconnection Requirements for Variable Generation (2) M. Morjaria, D. Anichkov, V. Chadliev, and S. Soni. “A Grid-Friendly Plant.” IEEE Power and Energy Magazine May/June (2014)
Utility-Scale PV Plants Provide Grid Friendly Features Required by NERC:
Voltage regulation
Real power control, ramping, and curtailment
Primary frequency regulation
Frequency droop response
Short circuit duty control
Fault ride through
Grid Reliability &
Stability
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
26
Plant Control System Enables Grid Friendly Features
Patent No. 8,774,974. Real-time photovoltaic power plant control system
POWER GRIDSUBSTATION
DC
•••
Sunlight to DC Power DC Power to AC Power AC Power to Grid
SWITCHGEAR
AC
SOLAR ARRAYS COMBINERBOX
DC
POWER CONVERSION STATION
Typical DC Voltage 1kV or 1.5kV Typical AC Collection Voltage 34.5kV
(Alternatives 4.16kV to 27.6kV)
69 to 765kV
(AC)
• Checks grid’s actual conditions and required set points
• Sends individual instructions to each inverter based on location, losses, and performance
• Controls quality of power coming out of the PV plant
Closed-loop controls at 100 milliseconds!
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
27
Intermittency
Grid Reliability &
Stability• http://www.caiso.com/Documents/TestsShowRenewableP
lantsCanBalanceLow-CarbonGrid.pdf
Solar Can Provide Reliability Services
NERC identified essential reliability services to integrate
higher levels of renewable resources, including:
• Frequency Control
• Ramping capability or flexible capacity
Reduces need for conventional generation
• Goes beyond simple PV energy value
• Enables additional solar
• Reduces need for expensive storage
2018 Intersolar Outstanding
Project Winner
2017 NARUC Award WinnerUtility Industry Innovative Pilots or
Demonstration Projects
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
28
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
RELATIVE TIME (sec)
Available MW Min allowed MW Commanded MW Measured MW
Solar Plant Follows Grid Operator Commands (AGC) Very Accurately
• Source: http://www.caiso.com/Documents/TestsShowRenewablePlantsCanBalanceLow-CarbonGrid.pdf.AGC: Automated Generator Control
PO
WE
R (M
W)
MORNING
30MW Headroom
Available MW
Measured Power
CommandedPower (4 s)
Regulation is ~27 %points more accurate than best
conventional generation
10min
20min
300 MW PV Plant
Intermittency
Grid Reliability &
Stability
Solar Contributes to System Flexibility
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
30
Solar Provides Flexibility
Solar Provides No Regulation Reserves Flexible Solar: Provides regulation reserves.
“Inflexible” Solar Flexible Solar
Source: E3,TECO, First Solar Report “Investigating the Economic Value of
Flexible Solar Power Plant Operation”, https://www.ethree.com/wp-
content/uploads/2018/10/Investigating-the-Economic-Value-of-Flexible-Solar-
Power-Plant-Operation.pdf
.
60% Lower
curtailment
Reduced
Thermal Gen
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
31
Load
“Dispatchable or Grid Flexible” Solar Contributes to Reserves
Thermal
Gen
PMin
Headroom
from
Curtailed
Solar
Thermal
Gen
Reduced
High Solar PenetrationA:Thermal
Generation OnlyO
pe
rab
le
the
rma
l ra
nge
PMin
Thermal
Gen
Ava
ila
ble
Ra
nge
Un
ava
ila
ble
Ra
nge
MW
0
Footroom
Headroom
Required
Headroom and
Footroom fit within
generation fleet
available range
Solar
Thermal
Gen
PMin
Load
Solar increases
balancing needs
Footroom
Headroom
Non-Dispatchable
Solar
Feasible:
Solar does not
contribute to headroom
and footroom range
Dispatchable Solar
Optimal:
Solar contributes to
footroom to headroom
range
Load
Footroom
Headroom
SolarCurtailed
Solar
Solar
Op
era
ble
the
rma
l ra
ng
e
Must-Run Solar
Infeasible:
Minimum thermal
dispatch (PMin) above
footroom -- no feasible
range available
Op
era
ble
the
rma
l ra
ng
e
So
lar
ran
ge
Th
erm
al
Thermal
Gen
PMinSo
lar
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
32
Source: E3,TECO, First Solar Report “Dispatchable Solar: The Key to Unlocking the Clean Energy Grid of the Future”, under review. Dispatchable or Grid Flexible Solar: operating solar plants at an optimal point which may be lower than available resource and providing regulation reserves. Non-dispatacbablesolar refers to where solar plant is only used to avoid oversupply and not provide any reserves.
Non-Dispatchable Solar Fully Flexible Solar
Comparison of Dispatch Profiles Over The Year — Animated
00
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
33
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
An
nu
al
Pro
du
cti
on
Co
st
Re
du
cti
on
(%
)
Annual Solar Penetration Potential (%)
Curtailable
Fully Flexible
Flexible Solar Reduces Production Costs
Assumes Solar $0 Variable Cost
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
34
PV can start up in seconds
(when solar resource is available)
< 1 sec 20 min 1-4 hrs 1-2 days
PV
CT
ST
CC
PV follows AGC (4-sec)
signal with high accuracy
PV CT STCC
Re
gu
lati
on
Err
or
Utility-scale PV is more flexible and responsive than today’s fossil fleet:
Combustion TurbineCT CC Combined Cycle ST Steam Turbine
Flexibility = Key Resource Attribute of the Future Grid
PV can operate flexibly from
0 to available power (Pavail)
PV
CT
Pmin
CC
Pmin
ST
Pmin
Pavail
Solar Provides Firm Capacity
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
36
Solar + Storage Provide Clean Dispatchable Generation
Intermittency
Grid Reliability &
Stability
Dispatchable
GenerationFlexible
Generation
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
37Source: BNEF
DRIVERS OF ENERGY STORAGE
- Benefits of Energy Storage on the
Utility Grid
- Flexible generation resource
performing multiple
applications
- Simpler siting and permitting
vs. fossil generation
- Beneficiary of continued cost
improvement from EV market
drivers
Transportation electrification demand is driving Li-Ion price declines
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
39
Can Solar Provide Firm Capacity?
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
40
Solar and Storage Provide Firm Capacity
Hour of the Day1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
25%No
Storage
Summer Evening Peak Period
Hour of the Day1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
48%1 hr
Storage
Summer Evening Peak Period
Hour of the Day1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
72%2 hr
Storage
Summer Evening Peak Period
Hour of the Day1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
98%4 hr
Storage
Summer Evening Peak Period
+
Game Changer: Clean Energy PlantMore Cost-effective Than Conventional Generation
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
41
Storage Enhances Grid Capability of PV Plant
Power RegulationRamp Control
dP
dt
Voltage Support
P
Q
Grid Capabilities Enhanced with Storage
• AGC
• Up-Regulation
• Down-Regulation
• Frequency Regulation
FlexibilityCapacity Firming Energy Shifting
+
Grid Reliability ServicesBase Capability
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
42
Solar Journey
Climate Change
Traditional Fuel
Replacements
Generation
Mix ShiftElectrification
UneconomicalGrid Parity
Below Marginal
Cost of CoalLowest Cost
New Generation
Intermittency
Grid Reliability
& Stability
Dispatchable
GenerationFlexible
Generation SOLAR23,000 MWy
per year
Progress Towards Making Solar a Strategic Resource
Technical Challenges Ahead
© C
op
yri
gh
t F
irs
t S
ola
r, I
nc
. 1
6 J
an
ua
ry 2
02
0
44Graphics Source: Guohui Yuan, Future System Impact of DOE Solar Integration Activities, DOE Sunshot Program
Technical Challenges Of An Evolving Electric Grid
3D: De-Carbonization, Distributed, Digitization
Increased Complexity of Ensuring Reliable, Resilient, Secure and Affordable Electricity
Electro-mechanical => Digital Power Electronics Based System
Limited Operation and Control => Complex Operation with VREs
Coupling with other Energy Sectors
45
Flexible & Dispatchable Solar … Key to Market Expansion & Value Retention
Better Integration And Scale Through Flexibility
Solar Energy
• Solar is part of mid-day load
offsets peak or near-peak
demand
• Energy-Only Value
Grid Flexible Solar
• Adds Grid Reliability Services
& Flexibility Value
Fully Dispatchable Solar
• Storage (hours, not days) time-
shifts solar – fully dispatchable
• Adds Firm Generation Capacity
Value
46
Solar in Clean Energy Transformation
• Global Electricity Supply “is being rapidly
transformed by the rise of renewables”
• Increased Complexities in providing reliable,
resilient, secure & affordable electricity
• Need to address many technical challenges to
transform our entire energy system
