Joint GCAM Community Modeling Meeting and GTSP Technical Workshop Joint Global Change Research Institute College Park, Maryland, USA
The SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and Scenarios JAE EDMONDS, RICHARD MOSS AND JIYONG EOM
19 September 2012
Scenarios
! There is no limit to the number of scenarios that could potentially be used as a point of reference for IAV research. ! SRES (2000)
Scenarios
! There is no limit to the number of scenarios that could potentially be used as a point of reference for IAV research. ! SRES (2000)
! The design of the research program for the next generation of assessments included both the RCPs and a “parallel process.”
Motivation for the Parallel Process ! Better climate assessment; and better assessment in general. ! One that added a new dimension to link IAM, IAV and CM. ! New storylines and scenarios to provide a set of potentially usable
points of common references for analysis.
Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability
Research
Climate Modeling
Integrated Assessment
Modeling New Storylines and Scenarios
The SSPs
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
! Narrative Storylines, ! Quantitative scenarios (demographics, economics, technology), and ! Other socieoeconomic indicators. Narra$ve Storyline: The storyline is a verbal descrip6on of the state of the world. All non-‐quan6ta6ve aspects of the scenario are included in the storyline.
IAM Quan$ta$ve Variables that define IAM reference “no-‐climate-‐policy” scenario inputs. E.g. reference scenario popula6on by region by year. GDP, Technology Availability.
Non-‐IAM Quan$ta$ve Variables that define reference “no-‐climate-‐policy” scenario, but which are not IAM drivers. E.g. governance index or ecosystem produc6vity and sensi6vity.
h;ps://www.isp.ucar.edu/narra$ves-‐ssps-‐working-‐group
! Narrative Storylines are on the web and OPEN FOR COMMENT through the end of September.
h;ps://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-‐apps/ene/SspDb/
! Preliminary demographic and economic assumptions are on the web and OPEN FOR COMMENT.
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) ! SSPs are being used to develop NEW SCENARIOS to explore a
range of future societal circumstances that exhibit a wide range of ! Challenges to adaptation, and ! Challenges to mitigation.
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
! SSPs are designed to provide a link between the RCPs and the CMIP5 climate ensembles.
SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP4 SSP5
Reference X X X X X
RCP Replica6on
8.5 Wm-‐2 X
6.0 Wm-‐2 X X X X X
4.5 Wm-‐2 X X X X X
2.6 Wm-‐2 X X X
SPAs
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) ! Storylines, ! Quantitative scenarios (demographics, economics, technology), and ! Other socieoeconomic indicators.
! SSPs are being used to develop NEW SCENARIOS to explore a range of future societal circumstances that exhibit a wide range of ! Challenges to adaptation, and ! Challenges to mitigation.
! SSPs are designed to provide a link between the RCPs and the CMIP5 climate ensembles.
! The FRAMEWORK paper http://www.isp.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/Scenario_FrameworkPaper_15aug11_0.pdf
PRELIMINARY ASSUMPTIONS FOR SSPS: POPULATION & GDP
IIASA Populations by SSP and GCAM Region
OECD’s total GDP and Per Capita GDP by SSP and GCAM Region
GCAM DRAFT SSP Input Assumptions
SSP1 Sustainability
SSP2 Middle of the
Road
SSP3 Fragmenta$on
SSP4 Inequality
SSP5 Development
First
2100 Popula$on [billion] (IIASA) 7.2 (5th) 9.8 (3rd) 14.1 (1st) 11.8 (2nd) 7.7 (4th)
2100 GDP [trillion 2005 USD, PPP] (OECD) 770 (2nd) 684 (3rd) 355 (5th) 461 (4th) 1,205 (1st)
Energy Service Demands Low Medium High Medium High
End-‐Use Technology High Medium Low Low / High Medium
Nuclear / CCS Low Medium Medium Mixed Medium
Renewable Technology High Medium Low High Medium
Fossil Fuel Extrac$on Low Medium High Medium High
Crop Yield Improvement High Medium Low Low / Medium High
Accession to Carbon Market All Instantaneous Delayed Delayed Delayed Delayed
Coverage of Carbon Tax UCT UCT FFICT FFICT UCT SP
As
NE
W S
SP
Pop
& G
DP
Te
chno
logy
GCAM SSP SCENARIOS
End-of-the-Century Radiative Forcing in Reference Scenarios (relative to RCPs)
2005
RCP 2.6 475ppm CO2equiv
RCP 4.5 630ppm CO2equiv
RCP 6.0 800ppm CO2equiv
RCP 8.5 1313ppm CO2equiv
We feel that it is important to have at least one scenario with
RF > 8.5 Wm-‐2
End-of-the-Century Radiative Forcing in Reference Scenarios (relative to RCPs)
2005
RCP 2.6 475ppm CO2equiv
RCP 4.5 630ppm CO2equiv
RCP 6.0 800ppm CO2equiv
RCP 8.5 1313ppm CO2equiv
We would prefer to have some scenarios with RF < 6.0
Wm-‐2
Preliminary assump6ons for popula6on and GDP
Bas van Ruijven
is sponsored by the Na6onal Science Founda6on
SSP Quan6fica6on
• Country level projec6ons for: – Popula6on
• IIASA – Urbaniza6on
• NCAR – Economy
• OECD • IIASA • PIK
Global popula6on for five SSPs
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Population in Billions
ssp1
ssp2
ssp3
ssp4
ssp5
China-‐ Propor6on Aged 65+ for five SSPs
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Proportion Aged 65+
ssp1
ssp2
ssp3
ssp4
ssp5
World-‐ Propor6on At least Secondary for popula6on aged 20-‐39 for five SSPs
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Proportion Sec+
ssp1
ssp2
ssp3
ssp4
ssp5
Urbaniza6on Projec6on Results
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
% urban
pop
ula$
on
Year
Western Europe
La6n America
China
Eastern Africa
SSP1 Fast
SSP2 Central
SSP3 Slow
SSP4 Fast/Central
SSP5 Fast
0
2E+14
4E+14
6E+14
8E+14
1E+15
1.2E+15
1.4E+15
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
GDP: World (OECD projection)
SSP1new SSP2new SSP3new SSP4new SSP5new
Global GDP levels by scenario SSP5>SSP1>SSP2>SSP4>SSP3; range wider in per capita terms
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
GDP per capita: World (OECD projection)
SSP1new SSP2new SSP3new SSP4new SSP5new
3 fold increase
5 fold increase
18fold increase
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP1 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP1 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP1 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP3 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP3 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP3 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP4 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP4 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP4 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)
SSP5 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP5 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP5 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World
Global GDP levels by scenario Often: IIASA start high, end low; PIK start low, end high; OECD in between. But not always!
Popula6on (Indonesia)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Million Pe
rson
s
History
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
SSP1 and SSP5 have high urbaniza$on SSP5: Jakarta becomes Indonesia’s single megacity (e.g. Singapore) SSP1: Mul6ple medium scale ci6es around the country
Urbaniza6on (Indonesia)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Urban pop
ulaatio
n History
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
GDP per capita (Indonesia)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Int $
per ca
pita (PP
P) History
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
IAV indicators Working Group
• Addi6onal indicators for IAV research – Income distribu6on (mul6-‐model process) – Governance (Earth System Governance) – Health (mul6-‐model process) – Spa6al popula6on projec6ons – Conflicts
DISCUSSION
BACKUP SLIDES
SSPs have three elements
Narra$ve Storyline: The narra6ve storyline is a verbal descrip6on of the state of the world. All non-‐quan6ta6ve aspects of the scenario are included in the storyline.
IAM Quan$ta$ve Variables that define IAM reference “no-‐climate-‐policy” scenario inputs. E.g. reference scenario popula6on by region by year. GDP, Technology Availability.
Non-‐IAM Quan$ta$ve Variables that define reference “no-‐climate-‐policy” scenario, but which are not IAM drivers. E.g. governance index or ecosystem produc6vity and sensi6vity.
GCAM Technology Building Blocks
31
High Tech Med Tech Low Tech Lower Tech
Nuclear Power Lower capital recovery factor with capital and O&M costs declining at
0.3% per year
Base capital recovery factor with capital and O&M costs declining at 0.1% per year
Higher capital recovery factor with fixed capital and O&M costs
No new nuclear power plant
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Lower-‐cost non-‐tradable regional land-‐based storage with larger capacity, expensive global-‐access offshore
storage
Non-‐tradable regional land-‐based storage combined with expensive global-‐access
offshore storage
Total available resource to 5% of the medium case. Cost scales up rapidly
without offshore storage No deployment
Fossil Fuel Extrac$on Extrac6on costs of coal, oil, and gas resource drop by 0.75% per year
Extrac6on costs of coal, oil, and gas resource drop by 0.5% per year
Extrac6on costs of coal, oil, and gas resource drop by 0.25% per year NA
Advanced Grid for Renewable Tech
1:1 backup required when renewables supply 50% of capacity
1:1 backup required when renewables (central PV, CSP, rooqop PV, wind) supply
25% of capacity
1:1 backup required when renewables supply 15% of capacity NA
Solar Tech Capital and O&M costs decline at a faster rate (double) Capital and O&M costs decline Capital and O&M costs decline at a
slower rate (50%) NA
Wind Tech Capital and O&M costs drop at 0.5% per year
Capital and O&M costs drop at 0.25% per year Capital and O&M costs do not drop NA
Geothermal Tech Faster improvement in hydrothermal / EGS available with the improvement
rate of 0.5% per year or more
Base improvement in hydrothermal / EGS available only aqer the exhaus6on of
hydrothermal resource / EGS improves at 0.25% per year or more
No improvement in hydrothermal / EGS not available NA
Building Tech Faster improvements in end-‐use efficiencies Base improvements in end-‐use efficiencies Slower improvements in end-‐use
efficiencies NA
Transporta$on Tech Faster declines in fuel intensi6es in all modes Base declines in fuel intensi6es in all modes Slower declines in fuel intensi6es in all
modes NA
Industry Tech Faster improvements in end-‐use efficiencies Base improvements in end-‐use efficiencies Slower improvements in end-‐use
efficiencies NA
Crop Produc$on Crop yield improvements converging to 0.5% per year by 2050
Crop yield improvements converging to 0.25% per year by 2050
Crop yield improvements converging to 0% per year by 2050 NA
Global Total Primary Energy
IPC
C S
RES
(200
0) R
ange
0
500
1000
1500
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
[EJ/
yr]
Global Primary Energy (-2050)
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
2055
2065
2075
2085
2095
[EJ/
yr]
Global Primary Energy (-2095)
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
0
10
20
30
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
[EJ/
yr]
Global CO2 Emissions (-2050)
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Global Total CO2 Emissions
IPC
C S
RES
(200
0) R
ange
2010 Actual (CDIAC)
0
10
20
30
40
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
2055
2065
2075
2085
2095
[EJ/
yr]
Global CO2 Emissions (-2095)
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Land Use Change Emissions
THE MATRIX
Into the Matrix where SSPs spawn RCP Replications
SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP4 SSP5
Reference X X X X X
RCP Replica6on
8.5 Wm-‐2 X
6.0 Wm-‐2 X X X X X
4.5 Wm-‐2 X X X X X
2.6 Wm-‐2 X X X
SPAs
SSPs The Movie: The Matrix Architects
Global Carbon Tax from 2015:
All global regions
GCAM SPAs: Accession to Global Carbon Market
! In delayed accession scenario, Former Soviet Union and Middle East Never Join the global carbon market.
37
Joins in 2070: global price by 2085
Joins in 2050: global price by 2065
Joins in 2030: global price by 2045
Global Carbon Tax from 2015
• Africa
• India / La6n America / Southeast Asia
• USA / China / Canada / Australia / NZ / Korea
• Western Europe / Eastern Europe / Japan
Delayed Accession Scenario Instantaneous Accession Scenario
Global Primary Energy by Fuel: SPA 4.5 Scenarios All Instantaneous / UCT
Delayed Accession / UCT
Delayed Accession / FFICT
Land Use Change Emissions
Urbaniza6on assump6ons SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5
Country Income Groupings
SSP Element Fast
Central
Slow
Fast / Central
Fast Urbaniza$on
Feature environmentally friendly living arrangement, resource-‐efficient compact ci$es
extension of current trend
una;rac$ve ci$es, limited mobility
Privileged ci$es, amenity for elite, poor facility for the rest
a;rac$ve ci$es in an aged society
man-‐made environment with comfort, accommodate smaller popula$on in the sprawled urban
Common interpreta6on of the SSPs
41
Fron$er TFP growth Speed of convergence
SSP1: Sustainability Medium high High
SSP2: Middle of the road Medium Medium
SSP3: Fragmenta6on Low Low
SSP4: Inequality Medium Low Income: Low
Middle Income: Low High Income: Medium
SSP5: Conven6onal development High High
N.B. Quan6ta6ve interpreta6ons and methodology differ between models, illustra6ng the uncertain6es in making economic projec6ons
Educa6on Scenarios
• The fast track (FT) scenario is extremely ambi6ous; it assumes that all countries expand their school systems at the fastest possible rate, which would be comparable with best performers in the past such as Singapore and South Korea .
• The global educa5on trend (GET) scenario is more moderately op6mis6c and assumes that countries will follow the average path of school expansion that other countries already somewhat further advanced in this process have experienced.
• The constant enrollment rate (CER) scenario assumes that countries only keep the propor6ons of cohorts avending school constant at current levels.
• The most pessimis6c scenario, constant enrollment numbers (CEN), assumes that no more schools at all are being built and that the absolute number of students is kept constant, which under condi6ons of popula6on growth means declining enrollment rates.
Country Groupings
• For defining these scenarios we dis6nguish among three groups of countries:
• High Fer5lity Countries (HiFert): Countries with current level of fer6lity less than 2.9 children per woman (2005-‐2010).
• Low Fer5lity Countries (LoFert) Countries with current level of fer6lity less than or equal to 2.9 not belonging to Rich OECD countries (see below)
• High Income-‐OECD Countries (Rich-‐OECD) As per the defini6on of World Bank.
Defini6on of assump6ons
