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Home > Documents > THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’ David Picton, President, Picton Mahoney Asset Management 1.

THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’ David Picton, President, Picton Mahoney Asset Management 1.

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THE TIMES THEY ARE A- CHANGIN’ 1
Transcript
  • THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN*

  • INTRODUCTION TO PICTON MAHONEYPortfolio management boutique managing $7.0 billion in assets for investors through three lines of businessAuthentic hedge fund strategiesSub-advisory servicesInstitutional long-only mandates

    We remain committed to our founding principles:AuthenticityTransparencyCapacity

  • THERE IS A REASON THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN SO CHALLENGING OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARSHistory shows that big bull markets are usually followed by big consolidation phasesThese great reckoning phases are never pleasant and usually squeeze excesses from the system, setting the stage for the next bull market

  • PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IN TODAYS ENVIRONMENTConsider how lacking the traditional tools are for savers today

    (Not to mention, the general aversion to risk many investors have post the 2008 collapse)

  • INCOME INVESTORS HAVE BENEFITTED DISPROPORTIONATELY FROM FALLING INTEREST RATESWe are very concerned that conservative investors are not prepared for potential volatility/losses that these types of investments could face once interest rates normalize

    Source: Corporate Reports, National Bureau of Economic Research, Empirical Research Partners Analysis

  • A CAUTIONARY TALE FOR INCOME INVESTORSRate Risk 1994: The great bond massacreToday if rates increase 1%, 5-year Government bonds should lose $5 and 10-year Government bonds should lose $9Source: Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

  • WE BELIEVE THAT MOST INVESTOR PORTFOLIOS, (ESPECIALLY IN CANADA), ARE POORLY CONSTRUCTEDToo much cash that has no chance of upside or inflation protection

    Concentrated in interest rate related vehicles that are trading at excessive valuations

    Lack foreign content (especially U.S. growth stocks)

    Disproportionately exposed to resource stocks and banks given that makeup of the Canadian benchmarks

    Potential problems with portfolios

  • WHAT IF QUESTIONS INVESTORS NEED TO ASK THEMSELVES REGARDING THEIR PORTFOLIOWhat if stock markets continue to rally?

    What if interest rates continue to rise/normalize?

    What if stock/sector leadership change continues?

    If you dont like the answers you are getting to these questions then it is time to reconsider your positioning and/or the investment tools you are using to build your portfolio

  • The times they are a-changin

  • THE CASE FOR ECONOMIC ACCELERATION IN 2014Many former headwinds are becoming (or should soon become) tailwinds to the economy

    STRENGTHSTABILITYWEAKNESSU.S.Wealth effectHousingCredit cycleCorporate CAPEX/ manufacturing renaissanceFiscal dragJAPANEUROPEBRICS??

  • U.S. OUTLOOK IS IMPROVINGRise in home prices and stock have added almost $9 trillion of wealth

    Source: J.P Morgan Chase

  • HOUSING IS STRONG AND AN INTEREST RATE SPIKE RISK IS OVERSTATEDSource: NAR, MBA, Zelman & Associates analysis

  • JOBS STILL TO COME FROM HOUSINGEach 250,000 Of U.S. Housing Starts adds one million new jobs and $4 to S&P 500 EPS

    Source: Bloomberg

  • CAPEX STILL LANGUISHES THE $2 TRILLION CASH HOARDA lack of faith in politicians and more specifically, the fiscal circus in the U.S., may be the only thing that stands between the deployment of cash and a CapEx Supercycle

    Source: Credit Suisse, ISI Group

  • U.S. FISCAL DRAG IS PEAKINGSource: Goldman Sachs

  • EUROPE IS PULLING OUT OF RECESSIONEurope is coming out of the recession led by Germany and France. The fiscal drag from the austerity measures (-1.6% of GDP in 2012, -1% in 2013, and a projected 0.6% in 2014) are diminishingSource: Eurostat, national statistics office, JP Morgan

  • JAPAN WHERE INFLATION IS WELCOMED!Japan has finally decided to tackle its decade long deflationary recession problem Japans new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has embarked on a massive fiscal & monetary stimulus plan, dubbed AbenomicsThe monetary aspect is aimed at reducing real interest rates and weakening the YenJapanese stocks tend to outperform when the Yen depreciatesSource: Bloomberg

  • JAPANESE EQUITIES: EARNINGS ARE IMPROVING AND VALUATIONS REMAIN ATTRACTIVEThe weaker Yen has translated into better earnings expectations for Japanese companiesDespite the rally, Japanese equity still has lots of room to run

  • CHINA IS A WILDCARDSource: Bloomberg, PMAM Research

  • CHINAS GROWTH OVER NEXT DECADE(S) LIKELY TO BE LED BY CONSUMPTIONA 1% Increase in Chinas consumption to GDP is equivalent to $73 billion (USD) of incremental spending

    Source: Bloomberg

  • CHINA: GROWTH COMPANIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUGHT AFTER IN A LOW GROWTH ENVIRONMENTSource: Bloomberg, MSCIDespite the negatively regarding China/EM, Chinese small/mid cap stocks (as represented by ChiNext) has massively outperformed this year. Investors are buying the new growth companies focused on the consumer rather than the large cap growth companies of the past (predominately state owned materials/energy/financials/industrials)

  • STOCKS REMAIN ATTRACTIVE: EQUITY YIELDS ARE SUPERIOR TO BOND YIELDSource: Bloomberg

  • SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET WEAKNESS WOULD BE TYPICAL, AND SHOULD BE BOUGHTSource: Bloomberg / PMAM Research

  • CORPORATE CASH SHOULD LEAD A BOOM IN M&ACurrent M&A activity rests at more than half of 10 year averages. This suggests that the markets may be in the very early stages of a market rise with a good deal of potential going forward

    Source: Bloomberg

  • INFLATION RISKS MAY BE OVERSTATED, WHICH COULD BE GOOD FOR DEVELOPING ECONOMIES AND P/E RATIOSLower inflation has paved the way for better economic dataDecoupling from China allows for the return of non-inflationary growth

  • SLEEPLESS NIGHTSThere are numerous questions that keep us up at night including: Are we underestimating the tail risks on BOTH sides?Has Fed policy so distorted the market pricing mechanism that it is fostering risk seeking behaviour reminiscent of the pre-crisis period?Do investors understand that they take inordinate amount of risk in the bond market and not enough in the equity market?Will politicians keep watching financing costs fall while doing nothing to get to the heart of the issues?Will a healthy balance between monetary and fiscal/political policy be struck in time?

  • ARE YOUR PORTFOLIOS READY?Source: Bloomberg

  • ARE YOUR PORTFOLIOS READY?Source: Bloomberg

  • PMAMS PORTFOLIO STRUCTURE

  • SYNERGY CANADIAN CORPORATE CLASS SECTOR EXPOSURE: AS AT AUGUST 30, 2013

    6109

    Performance Attribution - Summary

    6109all Daily (Total Return) vs. MSCI World Daily (Total Return)

    11 Groups of GICS Sector - as at 08/30/2013

    Base Currency : Dollar($) - Canada

    6109msworld index

    Group31-Aug-1331-Aug-13

    WeightWeight

    Financials23.6520.77

    Information Technology13.1811.81

    Consumer Discretionary13.0912.06

    Industrials11.8811.09

    Health Care9.8711.30

    Energy8.389.84

    Consumer Staples6.5110.34

    Materials4.865.78

    Telecom Services3.223.70

    Utilities2.703.31

    Other Assets2.670.00

    Total100.00100.00

    GICS sectorSynergy GlobalMSCI World $CDifference

    Financials23.6%20.8%2.9%

    Information Technology13.2%11.8%1.4%

    Consumer Discretionary13.1%12.1%1.0%

    Industrials11.9%11.1%0.8%

    Health Care9.9%11.3%-1.4%

    Energy8.4%9.8%-1.5%

    Consumer Staples6.5%10.3%-3.8%

    Materials4.9%5.8%-0.9%

    Telecom Services3.2%3.7%-0.5%

    Utilities2.7%3.3%-0.6%

    Other Assets2.7%0.0%2.7%

    Total100.0%100.0%

    &A

    Page &P

    6103

    Performance Attribution - Summary

    Synergy Cdn Corp Cl Daily (Total Return) vs. S&P TSX Composite Index Daily (Total Return)

    11 Groups of GICS Sector 08/30/2013 - 09/16/2013

    Base Currency : Dollar($) - Canada

    6103sptsx index

    Group31-Aug-1331-Aug-13

    WeightWeight

    Financials28.4734.37

    Energy16.8024.90

    Materials7.8213.80

    Industrials9.496.92

    Consumer Discretionary11.235.47

    Telecom Services2.734.98

    Consumer Staples4.643.17

    Health Care5.983.02

    Utilities1.271.80

    Information Technology7.931.59

    Other Assets3.650.00

    Total100.00100.00

    GICS sectorSynergy GlobalMSCI World $CDifference

    Financials28.5%34.4%-5.9%

    Energy16.8%24.9%-8.1%

    Materials7.8%13.8%-6.0%

    Industrials9.5%6.9%2.6%

    Consumer Discretionary11.2%5.5%5.8%

    Telecom Services2.7%5.0%-2.2%

    Consumer Staples4.6%3.2%1.5%

    Health Care6.0%3.0%3.0%

    Utilities1.3%1.8%-0.5%

    Information Technology7.9%1.6%6.3%

    Cash & other3.6%0.0%3.6%

    Total100.0%100.0%

    &A

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  • SYNERGY GLOBAL CORPORATE CLASS SECTOR EXPOSURE: AS AT AUGUST 30, 2013

    6109

    Performance Attribution - Summary

    6109all Daily (Total Return) vs. MSCI World Daily (Total Return)

    11 Groups of GICS Sector - as at 08/30/2013

    Base Currency : Dollar($) - Canada

    6109msworld index

    Group31-Aug-1331-Aug-13

    WeightWeight

    Financials23.6520.77

    Information Technology13.1811.81

    Consumer Discretionary13.0912.06

    Industrials11.8811.09

    Health Care9.8711.30

    Energy8.389.84

    Consumer Staples6.5110.34

    Materials4.865.78

    Telecom Services3.223.70

    Utilities2.703.31

    Other Assets2.670.00

    Total100.00100.00

    GICS sectorSynergy GlobalMSCI World $CDifference

    Financials23.6%20.8%2.9%

    Information Technology13.2%11.8%1.4%

    Consumer Discretionary13.1%12.1%1.0%

    Industrials11.9%11.1%0.8%

    Health Care9.9%11.3%-1.4%

    Energy8.4%9.8%-1.5%

    Consumer Staples6.5%10.3%-3.8%

    Materials4.9%5.8%-0.9%

    Telecom Services3.2%3.7%-0.5%

    Utilities2.7%3.3%-0.6%

    Cash & other2.7%0.0%2.7%

    Total100.0%100.0%

    &A

    Page &P

    6103

    Performance Attribution - Summary

    Synergy Cdn Corp Cl Daily (Total Return) vs. S&P TSX Composite Index Daily (Total Return)

    11 Groups of GICS Sector 08/30/2013 - 09/16/2013

    Base Currency : Dollar($) - Canada

    6103sptsx index

    Group31-Aug-1331-Aug-13

    WeightWeight

    Financials28.4734.37

    Energy16.8024.90

    Consumer Discretionary11.235.47

    Industrials9.496.92

    Information Technology7.931.59

    Materials7.8213.80

    Health Care5.983.02

    Consumer Staples4.643.17

    Other Assets3.650.00

    Telecom Services2.734.98

    Utilities1.271.80

    Total100.00100.00

    &A

    Page &P

  • Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

    CI Investments, the CI Investments design, Synergy Mutual Funds, are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc.Thank You FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY

    *


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