CASE STUDY: Responding to a Natural Disaster 1 The Worst in Nature - The Best in Us Responding to a Natural Disaster AAP Breaking News 2007, June 09, 01: 52 am NSW Premier declares natural disaster: NSW Premier Morris Iemma has declared a "natural disaster" for the Hunter and Central Coast regions after severe storms over the past 24 hours caused widespread damage. Mr Iemma said the declaration of a natural disaster area triggered a range of assistance for individual residents, business owners and councils whose properties have been damaged by the strong winds, rain and flooding …… Plate 1: Flash flooding, Newcastle West (ABC, Janek ) Plate 2: SES taking people to safety, Wyong (SES) Plate 3: Flooding of residential areas Chittaway (SES) CENTRAL COAST NSW, JUNE 2007. Where were you on Friday 8 th June 2007? Were you caught in the gale force winds and torrential rainfall that struck coastal New South Wales on that Friday afternoon? When did you first become aware that the storm damage and floods were of such intensity that only the formal declaration of a “natural disaster” would be adequate to deal with the consequences of this surprise weather event? CASE STUDY In this Case Study of a Natural Disaster we seek to answer the following questions: How do we as a community research natural disasters? How do we plan for them? How do we respond to them? We will mainly be concerned with analysing the events of June 2007 as an example of a relatively extreme, damaging weather event, related to the mechanisms of the global water cycle, and requiring both immediate short term responses as well as long-term planning.
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CASE STUDY: Responding to a Natural Disaster
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The Worst in Nature - The Best in Us Responding to a Natural Disaster
AAP Breaking News 2007, June 09, 01: 52 am
NSW Premier declares natural disaster: NSW Premier Morris Iemma has declared a "natural disaster" for the Hunter and Central Coast regions after severe storms over the past 24 hours caused widespread damage. Mr Iemma said the declaration of a natural disaster area triggered a range of assistance for individual residents, business owners and councils whose properties have been damaged by the strong winds, rain and flooding ……
Plate 1: Flash flooding, Newcastle West (ABC, Janek )
Plate 2: SES taking people to safety, Wyong (SES)
Plate 3: Flooding of residential areas Chittaway (SES)
CENTRAL COAST NSW, JUNE 2007. Where were you on Friday 8th June 2007? Were you caught in the gale force winds and torrential rainfall that struck coastal New South Wales on that Friday afternoon? When did you first become aware that the storm damage and floods were of such intensity that only the formal declaration of a “natural disaster” would be adequate to deal with the consequences of this surprise weather event?
CASE STUDY In this Case Study of a Natural Disaster we seek to answer the following questions:
� How do we as a community research natural disasters? � How do we plan for them? � How do we respond to them?
We will mainly be concerned with analysing the events of June 2007 as an example of a relatively extreme, damaging weather event, related to the mechanisms of the global water cycle, and requiring both immediate short term responses as well as long-term planning.
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1. Constructing a local Time Line of famous “East Coast Lows”
What is an “East Coast Low”?
� East Coast Lows (ECL) are intense low-pressure weather systems which occur on average several times each year off the eastern coast of Australia, in particular southern Queensland, NSW and eastern Victoria.
� Gales and heavy rain occur on and near the coast south of the low centre, while to the north of the low there can be clear skies.
� ECLs will often intensify rapidly overnight making them one of the more dangerous weather systems to affect the NSW coast.
� The challenge for weather forecasters is to accurately predict the location and movement of the centre of the low. Source: Bureau of Meteorology
ACTIVITY: The Table below carries a list of dates in the left hand column and in the right hand column a scrambled set of images and/or descriptions of recent infamous historical events associated with weather events known as “East Coast Lows”. Try to match the events to the listed dates. (You may choose to use the template in Appendix 1, and paste photocopies of the events in the appropriate blank cells of the Table.)
Date Scrambled historical events associated with East Coast Lows August 1857
The "Sygna" storm: the wreck of the Sygna, driven onshore during the storm, still lies on Stockton Beach, near Newcastle.
May 1898
The Hunter River floods: Maitland Railway Station in the floods from which about 15,000 people had to be evacuated.
April 1927
The Georges River floods: wind reached 40 knots at Norah Head, and Observatory Hill in Sydney had its highest daily rainfall total on record - 328mm.
February 1955
The "Dunbar" storm: James Johnson was sole survivor of the Dunbar, a sailing ship carrying 122 people, wrecked off South Head while trying to seek shelter in Sydney Harbour.
May 1974
The “Pasha Bulker” storm: aground on Nobbys Beach, Newcastle.
August 1986
The “Maitland” storm: the site where the wreck of the steamer Maitland finally came to rest after it ran into a major storm north of Sydney, with the loss of 24 lives.
June 2007
The Wyong River flood: the waters poured over the railway line between Wyong and Tuggerah.
TESTABLE HYPOTHESIS: “East Coast Lows” of significant magnitude to cause “Natural Disasters” on the Central Coast of NSW occur mainly in the months from May to August.
OPEN-ENDED QUESTION: Think about what sources of evidence there might be concerning major East Coast Low events in pre-European times. Suggest some possible methods for researching local weather conditions over say the last 2000 years that might be used to test this hypothesis and discuss the likely effectiveness of such methods.
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2. Tracking the Intensity and Movement of ‘East Coast Lows’
ACTIVITY: Examine the following weather maps produced by the Bureau of Meteorology for selected days and times in June 2007:
Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure (MSLP, hPa) isobars for Australian Region, June 2007
Figure 1: 10 am, Wed 06 June 2007 Figure 2: 4 am, Fri 08 June 2007
Figure 3: 10 am, Sun 10 June 2007 Figure 4: 10 am, Mon 18 June 2007
Figure 5: 10 pm, Tue 19 June 2007 Figure 6: 4 pm, Wed 20 June 2007
Based on your understanding of weather maps of this kind, answer the following questions for the days in June listed in the above maps:
1. On which days, would you have expected the weather on the Central Coast of NSW to be relatively fine?......................................
2. On which of these days might you have expected bad weather?.......................
3. Is there any particular day when you might have expected very severe storm conditions on the Central Coast of NSW? ……………………… Why?
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3. Predicting the Likelihood of a disastrous “East Coast Low”
On the 7th June the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released the following Media Alert:
Thursday, 07 June 2007 BOM media release
Severe weather alert for eastern NSW at end of the week
A developing weather system will bring severe weather to eastern NSW - including Sydney - during the next 48 hours…..A low pressure system off the Mid North Coast of NSW is expected to deepen and move southwards….. The low will bring very heavy rain to a wide area leading to possible flooding…..It's too early to predict the precise location of the heaviest rainfall and strongest wind, as this will depend on the eventual position and movement of the centre of the low….
As things turned out, the BOM’s Media Alert predicted quite accurately the weather events that led to the severe flooding of the Central Coast and Hunter River the following weekend. Ten days later, on the 19 June 2007, ten days, the Bureau issued this further alert:
Tuesday, 19 June 2007 BOM media release
More severe weather on the way…
An intense low is expected to develop rapidly off Sydney overnight Tuesday with southerly winds reaching storm force in NSW south coastal waters Tuesday evening, extending through Sydney and Hunter waters to the Mid North Coast on Wednesday morning….. Damaging winds with gusts to 100km/h are expected along the coastal strip…..This will be the third intense weather system to affect the NSW coast in the past fortnight….
On this occasion, the intense low pressure system detected on the 19 June (see Map 5 on the previous page) moved rapidly away from the coast out to sea (see map 6). Thankfully, the potential damaging winds forecast by the BOM did not eventuate.
THE INSTRUMENTS OF THE WEATHER FORECASTER Weather prediction is an “exact science” applied to a highly complex, changeable, natural phenomenon. The latest technology and theoretical models are employed in the continually evolving effort to better forecast the weather events that so affect our daily lives.
ACTIVITY: Using secondary sources of information (encyclopaedias, library books, the Internet), construct a Table that records the following devices (Device) used by weather monitors; a brief description of how each one works (How It Works), together with what each one is used to monitor (Use).
The details of our day-to-day experience of the weather are quickly forgotten as we go about the business of our lives. On the other hand, Meteorologists (those scientists who study the weather) make it their responsibility to maintain a long-term memory of these details. The daily weather data that they collect from a wide geographic area and from a wide variety of sources is recorded and stored systematically (in computer data bases) year after year. The reason meteorologists do this, is that when such data is processed to give a long-term history of the weather, it reveals patterns and trends which can be vitally important in assisting the weather forecaster to improve the reliability of predictions made about future weather events. This helps us to plan for the events.
Definitions:
“Climate” and “Weather“
� Climate is the sum or synthesis of all the weather recorded over a long period of time. It tells us the average or most common conditions, or extremes, or counts of events, or frequencies.
� Weather is a description of conditions over a short period of time - a "snap shot" of the atmosphere at a particular time.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
ACTIVITY: Consider these two “tags” used by the Bureau of Meteorology to describe the difference between weather and climate: Climate is what you expect; Weather is what you get. If weather is the watch then climate is the calendar.
Now see if you can come up with a memorable “jingle”, “short poem”, “song” or “cartoon” that illustrates the difference between the concepts of weather and climate.
OPEN-ENDED QUESTION: The series of weather maps which you looked at before, on Page 3, were selected from a long sequence of weather maps published by the Bureau of Meteorology. They were selected to highlight particular moments in the development of the weather in June 2007. Examine the maps carefully and consider this question: Why would this particular selection of maps be considered an unscientific sample of June 2007’s weather, if these maps were being used to develop a long term picture of the Australian climate?
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5. Responding to a Natural Disaster (i) Organisations involved in the response
What is a Natural Disaster?
� Disasters are unfortunate, often sudden events that result in large-scale environmental damage and loss of life.
� Natural disasters differ from man-made disasters in that the primary causal factor(s) are largely outside the direct influence of human activity. For this reason, they have traditionally been called “Acts of God” by the insurance industry. They include such catastrophes as major earthquakes, cyclones and bushfires.
Natural disasters can be planned for, by learning from the long-term history of such events; nevertheless, the timing and scale of their occurrence are predicable only in very general terms. This means that the plans we put in place for our immediate response to such events must be flexible enough to allow us to react effectively to unexpected outcomes, no matter how damaging and disorienting these may be.
ACTIVITY: The Table below, record just some of the variety of organisations - governmental and non-governmental - who participated in the Central Coast/Hunter disaster response of June 2007. Images and Titles have been given. It is your job, using secondary information sources, to describe the particular function of each organisation in the response to a Natural.
Organisation Responsibility in a Disaster Response Effort
State Emergency Service
NSW Police Force
Ambulance Service of NSW
NSW Department of Community Services
NGO Welfare Agency (e.g. “Red Cross”)
Electricity (e.g. “Energy Australia”)
Insurance Assessor (e.g. “NRMA”)
Emergency Management Australia
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5. Responding to a Natural Disaster (ii) The role of local government in recovery
Unless we personally experience the effects of a natural disaster it is hard to imagine the extent of the disruption and the huge effort required to respond and to clean up afterwards.
In the days immediately following the June storms, a Disaster Recovery Centre for the Central Coast was established in the Civic Centre next to the council chambers in Wyong. The Centre operated seven days a week for over three weeks. In its early stages it was open 24 hours a day providing assistance with everything from emergency accommodation and food parcels through to advice on insurance matters and financial counselling. Representatives from Community Services, Fair Trading, Red Cross, Samaritans and Insurance providers were just some of the personnel involved. In their official capacity and as volunteers, staff from Gosford and Wyong Councils contributed substantially to the response.
Plate 4: Food parcels (Wyong Shire Council)
Plate 5: Coordination (Wyong Shire Council)
Plate 6: Cleaning up (Wyong Shire Council)
ACTIVITY: The Table below lists some of the needs that had to be responded to in the aftermath of the storms and floods. In the second column, place a tick against those activities which you think would have involved local government staff from Gosford City and/or Wyong Councils. In the third column, write down the name of any other organisations who may have been involved.
Organisations involved in the response Storm/flood response activities Local government? Other organisations?
Issuing flood response information Towing away flooded vehicles Child care for flooded households Financial counselling to flood victims Distributing food parcels Removing fallen trees from roadways Clearing stormwater channels Repairing flood damaged roadways Building inspection for house repairs Removal of storm damage plant refuse Restoring damaged water supply pipelines Maintaining records of flood-affected households Pumping out storm damaged septic tanks Erecting traffic redirection signs Garbage collection Repairing damaged public park facilities
You may be surprised to learn that either directly or indirectly, local government personnel took part in every one of the above activities.
OPEN-ENDED QUESTION: Consider those terrible Natural Disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, involving large scale loss of life and massive devastation. What kinds of activities might be needed to add to the above list to respond to such catastrophes?
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6. Learning from a Natural Disaster (i) Analysing the broad effects of the June 2007 storms.
ACTIVITY: Examine the following sequence of images taken from a helicopter by the State Emergency Services during June 2007. Then answer the questions below.
Plate 7: Wetlands of Porters Creek, a tributary of Wyong River – 10 June. (SES)
Plate 8: Wyong River at the railway bridge – 9 June. (SES)
Plate 9: Wyong River estuary where it enters Tuggerah Lakes – 10 June (SES)
Plate 10: Long Jetty, Tuggerah Lakes – 10 June (Wyong Shire Council)
Plate 11: Tuggerah Lakes close to the entrance – 10 June (SES)
Plate 12: Tuggerah Lakes entrance– 21 June (SES)
1. For each of the above images, list one risk to property and one risk to human life posed by the storms of June 2007. 2. For each particular image, suggest one possible step that you think could be taken to reduce the potential risk to life and property posed by even larger storms than the ones of June 2007.
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6. Learning from a Natural Disaster (ii) Evaluating specific works designed to prepare for the effects of flooding events ACTIVITY: Examine the sequence of images listed below and then answer the questions.
Plate 13: Wyong weir pump station
- mid-flood 9 June (Wyong Shire Council) Plate 14: Pump station
– 5 July (Wyong Shire Council)
Plate 15: Wyong weir embankment
construction - 5 July (Wyong Shire Council)
Plate 16: View up river from pump station – 5 July (Wyong Shire Council)
1. Comparing these four images, list three specific steps that planners have taken to try to reduce the damage to property posed by floods of the kind experienced in June 2007.
Plate 17: Ourimbah Creek Weir fish ladder- 5 July (Wyong Shire
Council)
Plate 18: Tumbi Creek exit floating boom - 9 July (Wyong Shire
Council)
Plate 19: Wyong river with Mardi dam in background - 9 July (Wyong Shire
Council) 2. For each of these three images, describe how one particular “engineering work” carried out by Local Government provides a benefit.
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7. The difference between “Responding to” and “Planning for” a Natural Disaster
In Section 4 of this Case Study, we looked at the difference between the meteorologist’s concept of “weather” and “climate”. In a similar way, we now look at the difference between our immediate response to a disastrous event cause by highly variable natural processes and the way we learn from such experiences over the course of history to better prepare ourselves for such events.
Plate 20: People carefully negotiate a damaged bridge in Maitland after the February 1955 flood. (SES)
Plate 21: Bringing supplies to isolated people at Hinton in the Hunter valley in the June 2007 flood (SES)
ACTIVITY: Research secondary sources of information relating to the infamous Hunter River floods of 1955 and the recent Hunter floods of June 2007. Gather and process this information to construct a Table which compares the two floods under the following headings: Prevailing Weather Conditions; Extent of the Flooding; Loss of Life; Damage to Property; Prior Flood Mitigation Measures; Organisation of the Response to the Floods; The Technology of the Response
Hazards and Disaster Mitigation
� Hazard: a potentially damaging event or activity, which may cause loss of life, injury, property damage, social and economic disruption and/or environmental degradation. A hazard might lead to a disaster. A disaster is an impact of a hazard on a community or area that overwhelms the usual capacity to cope.
� Disaster mitigation: the measures taken in advance of a hazardous event which are aimed at decreasing or eliminating its impact on society and environment
OPEN ENDED QUESTIONS: Baden Powell’s famous maxim was “Be Prepared”. A related saying is “Learn from your Mistakes”. 1. What have we learned since the time of the 1955 Maitland Floods that has helped us be better prepared as a community to respond to the Natural Hazard of “East Coast Lows”. In answering this question you might like to consider Emergency Management Australia’s checklists - Specific Disaster Mitigation Measures (http://www.ema.gov.au/agd/ema/emaInternet.nsf/Page/RWP0ACB42930E19FCEFCA256C4800062B66?OpenDocument#Measures ) 2. How do weather forecasters learn from their “mistakes”?
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8. POSTSCRIPT: The sign of times to come?
Tewkesbury Abbey, Gloucestershire, UK, July 2007
Photograph: Daniel Berehulak/Getty
Plate 22: Tewksbury Abbey, Gloucestershire, UK, July 2007 (Daniel Berehulak/Getty)
“STREETS FULL OF WATER PLEASE ADVISE” Robert Benchley’s telegram home from Venice.
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APPENDIX 1: Blank template for the Time Line of “East Coast Lows” (see page2).
Date Scrambled historical events associated with East Coast Lows August 1857
