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Institute of Certified Management Consultants of Saskatchewan In Cooperation with the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy Think BIG! Saskatchewan Growth is the new Normal
Institute of Certified Management Consultants of Saskatchewan In Cooperation with the Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy
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Think BIG! Saskatchewan
Growth is the new Normal
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Ground Breaking!
The World’s PremierManagement Consulting Certification"
Contributing Firms & Consultants b-creative Group Conroy Ross Partners Deloitte Mandate Consulting Ltd McNair Business Development Stand Sure Business Innovation Ltd Paradigm Consulting Group Inc Perspect Management Consulting Praxis Analytics Ltd Saskatchewan CMC Institute Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy
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Let’s consider Saskatchewan’s next four years.
How do you expect Saskatchewan’s
economy will perform?
How are People Feeling?
Residents think their future is bright….
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+ = 85%
…and are largely Pro-Business
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Economic Conditions Shape Attitudes
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PIONEERS
Land of Opportunity
Outward Looking and Confident
Immigration is welcome
Population Growth
POST – GREAT DEPRESSION
Opportunity is elsewhere
Inward Looking, Better Next Year
Out migration
Shrinking and Stagnating
ENTRAPRENEURS
Global Opportunities within our reach
World needs what we have
International Immigration
Population growth Prosperous Future
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What is contributing to these positive attitudes?
But, why?
Population Gains relate to Global Commodity Super Cycles
800000
850000
900000
950000
1000000
1050000
1100000
1150000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006 2011 2013
Population vs. Commodity Super Cycles
Sask Population
Commodity Super Cycles
UN Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs
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Buoyant Economic Conditions = Optimism
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Canada
Saskatchewan is Doing Well
Population Growth, 2007 to 2012 Employment Growth, 2007 to 2012 GDP Growth, 2007 to 2011
average annual increase
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Income Levels Have Also Grown
$30 $50 $70 $90 $110
Estevan CA
Regina CMA
Saskatoon CMA
Swift Current CA
Prince Albert CA
Yorkton CA
North Battleford CA
Moose Jaw CA
Rural and smaller urban
Saskatchewan
thousands
Average Household Income ($2010)
2000
2010
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Economic Growth is Driving Employment Growth
0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Saskatoon CMA
Edmonton CMA
Regina CMA
Calgary CMA
Winnipeg CMA
average annual increase
Interprovincial Comparison of Employment Growth, 2006 to 2011
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What is driving Economic Growth?
Exports!
150% increase from 2003.
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Exports of Goods 2012 (%)
Food
Oil, Gas, Mininng
Manufactured Goods
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80 % of Population Growth is in Sask Cities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Rural and Smaller Urban Eight Largest Urban Centres
Shares of Population and Population Growth
Share of Population in 2011
Share of Population Growth, 2006 to 2011
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All of the Job Growth Also in the Cities
-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Saskatoon CMA
North Battleford CA
Regina CMA
Estevan CA
Moose Jaw CA
Swift Current CA
Yorkton CA
Prince Albert CA
Rural and smaller urban
average annual increase
Employment Growth from 2006 to 2011
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Because Employment Intensive Industries are Urban Based
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Health care, social assistance Retail Trade
Public administration Education services Business services
Construction Accommodation, food services Finance, insurance, real estate
Manufacturing Personal, household services
Arts, entertainment, recreation, Transportation, warehousing
Wholesale Trade Mining, Oil/Gas
Agriculture, forestry Utilities
Employment by Industry Group, Saskatchewan, 2011
Rural and Smaller Urban Eight Large Urban Centres
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The Benefit is Split Between Urban and Rural
Saskatchewan’s recent success is supported by the rural economy Exports originate in rural Saskatchewan Rural Saskatchewan contributes 44% of GDP Extensive employment in agriculture, forestry based on the
resource sector – exports for primary resources are strong
However, cities are vital to continued rural growth Support services are based in urban centres Top eight cities achieved 80% of population growth and 100% of
the employment growth Significant population increase, international immigration is
attracted to large urban centres where more professional services and cultural options exist
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What can we do in Saskatchewan to ensure the growth continues?
Now What?
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In the magazine Washington Monthly (Dec 2012) there is the following story about a prayer in the oil patch: Dear Lord, just give us one more boom and we promise not to piss it away like all the others.
What contributes to Growth?
Higher Value Added Needed
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Canada
Saskatchewan is Doing Well
Population Growth, 2007 to 2012 Employment Growth, 2007 to 2012 GDP Growth, 2007 to 2011
average annual increase
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Value Add! Strathcona County Population – 95,000 2012 GDP: $47B All of Saskatchewan $70B
Sports fields, green spaces, parks, housing
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What can we do in Saskatchewan to ensure the growth continues?
What is the Answer?
Economic Regions Have the Ability to Become Globally Competitive at 500,000
Regions of 500,000 or more have avoided outmigration
Regions of 500,000 become self sustaining as regional and national ‘engines of growth’ as they attract economic activity.
Sustaining Saskatchewan’s growth requires larger regional partnerships. This will require innovation and choices.
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Saskatchewan
A single economic unit Rural and Urban synergies Abundance Mentality
The rising tide floats all boats
The Challenges Business leaders see four major challenges
Increasing access to skilled labour and professionals Improving growth enabling infrastructure Addressing the rising cost of living and doing business Continuing to improve and evolve the policy environment
Addressing these challenges is largely an urban based agenda because of the role of cities in: Attracting skilled trades persons and professionals to Saskatchewan Providing infrastructure and services to support business growth Creating local economies with sufficient scale to support growing
business.
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189
159 160
158
Today’s Population 300,000 500,000 Growth in Towns Add in RM Growth
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343
344
345
314
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Today’s Population 300,000 500,000 Growth in Towns Add in RM Growth
Swift Current CA
Swift Current
Swift Current No. 137
The Swift Current metropolitan area includes the city proper and the surrounding RM. It does not include residents of Waldeck. 2011 Census 17,535 Includes surrounding area What would 40,000 look like?
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Regional Partnerships will allow for metropolitan areas to flourish. Some possibilities:
Saskatoon – Prince Albert corridor Yellowhead Highway…Yorkton to Lloydminster Regina-Saskatoon corridor Regina-Swift Current corridor #1 Highway, MB to AB, corridor Weyburn-Estevan corridor
Regional Partnerships
Take Advantage of our advantage
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Call to action is now! Proactive - dealing from a position of strength vs Reactive - from a position of weakness
Number one in Natural Resources Low ranking in our ability to produce and export
value added services Government policy is in our favour Action Items…
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Learn from other successes
Mobilize Leaders and Communities
Create a Sense of Urgency
Think Big
Action Items
Questions
