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This is one of the most common graphs we see today; it depicts world population growth over the past...

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Global Environmental Chang Gayl D. Ness UM Department of Sociology FAX 734 763 6887 email: [email protected] Human Population and
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GlobalEnvironmental Change

Gayl D. NessUM Department of Sociology

FAX 734 763 6887email: [email protected]

Human Populationand

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This is one of the most common graphs we see today; it depicts world population growth over the past 1000 years;it could go back 200,000 and not look much different.

Two major Green House Gasses, carbon dioxide and methane, have risen along with population. This looks like population is causing global warming…..BUT

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Total Pop % Urban

Form of Energy

Animal Sail Fossil Fuels

If we look at a larger picture, it is clear that population growth was accompanied by major changes in energy technology and in social organization, that is by the rise of urban industrial society. Thus….

How did this major transformation happen?

Why did population grow rapidly?

Did the change occur at the same time in all part of the world?

Will population continue to grow?

What are some of the major implications for current problems?

To address these questions we must first turn to a universal pattern of the modern world:

The Demographic Transition

This is the transition from high to low birth and death rates. There have been TWO major demographic transitions:

Past and Present

Past Demographic TransitionEngland and Wales

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CBR

CDR

The Past Demographic Transitionoccurred more gradually fromlower original levels, bringingslower rates of population growth

The Present Demographic Transitonoccurs more rapidly, from higheroriginal levels, bringing higher ratesof population growth.

Past and Present

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The Demographic Transition is the movement of a population from high to low birth and death rates

Two Demographic Transitions

The past “epidemiological transition” moved slowly from high, variable, death rates and infectious diseases to low, stable, death rates and degenerative diseases.

Here is Sweden’s crude death rate from 1750 to 2000

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Sweden

China

Today, death rates can be reduced more rapidly. China’s CDR fell more in 40 years than Sweden’s did in 200 years

A more telling figure is the fall in the Infant Mortality Rate. China’s IMR fell in 40 years as much as Sweden’s fell in 200 years

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There are two major reasons for the increased speed of the new transitions:

New medical technology to attack infectious diseases;

New Global organizations to spread that technology rapidly.

The UN World Health Organization has played a major role here. This has brought new hope for better health to millions of the world’s population.The same holds for the fertility transition, with another twist

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Sweden CBR and CDR

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Let me remind you of Sweden’s Birth and Death Rates, its demographic transition.

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China’s birth rate fell as much in 40 years as Sweden’s fell in 200 years.

Total Fertility RateThe number of children a woman has in her child-bearing years.

China and Thailand

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actual projected

Thailand

China

Latin American and East Africa

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Latin America

Declined rapidly in China andThailand, due to effective primaryeducation, primary health care, andfamily planning programming

Has declined only moderately in Latin America, and remains high in Africa. Weak government health, education and family planning programs are main causes.

Here is another picture, showing how rapidly fertility can decline in the modern world.

Again the reason for the greater speed of change lies in a new medical technology: the vast array of modern contraceptives available since about 1965.

There was also a major policy change: the ANTINATALIST POLICY REVOLUTION, led by India, starting in 1952. Good family planning programs speed the transition and improve health.

In addition, the United Nations, especially the Population Fund, helped move that new technology throughout the world rapidly. UNFPA has supported family planning programs throughout the world

The result has been a vast improvement in reproductive health, especially in the health of poor women and children

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Short birth intervals bring higher infant mortality

Source: PRB 1997

Fertility reduction improves health in a number of ways:

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Higher total fertility implies higher maternal mortality in all regions

Africa Asia L. America/Car.

(But obviously more is involved than just fertility)

Fertility reduction also reduces maternal mortality

Babies tending babies: the picture of high fertility.

Poor children beside the Irrawaddy in Mandalay, Burma

Successful family planning.

A young Thai mother with her daughter, Nong Khai, Thailand

Family planning programs have been described as some of the most cost-effective development and health programs we have. But there is a more important point to be made.

Successful family planning programs provide immediate improvements in the health of women and children. These are usually the people who benefit last and least from other types of development programs.

In effect, they provide health improvements to those who usually get them last.

But there is another problem as well…..

Rapid population growth:

reduces health and welfare

AND

produces a rapidly growing young population.

Young males (15-19 years old) are a highly energetic, inexperienced, and volatile population.

They can be led to acts of heroism, making them attractive to infantry sergeants;

They can be led to acts of great altruism;

And they can also be led to acts of terrible violence, as we

saw, for example, in the Tutsi-Hutu genocide

Much depends on the leadership and social infrastructure that

gives them some hope for the future.

But demographics also show their numbers will increase rapidly.

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Source: UN Age and Sex Distributions 1994

Actual Projected

One example: reduced fertility means fewer young males

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Least Developed Regions

North America

Young Males (15-19 years) inLeast Developed Regions and North America

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The growth of young males will be greatest in those regions least able to provide them with schools, jobs, or hope.

Much depends on what governments are willing and able to do.

Where health and education are given high priority, the future can look very promising.

As in Thailand…..

Young men are all in schools, sports and scouts, with reasonable chances for jobs. And their numbers are declining! There were 3.1 million in 1985 and 2.8 million in 2000.

In Pakistan the scenario if far less hopeful.

Government expenditures are heavily weighted to the military.

Education and health receive far lower priorities.

There is also extensive female seclusion.

There are currently some 8 million young males in Pakistan. Their numbers will certainly grow to about 12 million over the next 20 years.

With no schools or jobs for most, where will they go? What will they do?

The potential for instability within Pakistan, between Pakistan and India (two nuclear powers), and in the rest of South Asia is substantial.

The Pakistani government is currently unable to provide good educational and health services to its population. People have given up on government; private services of all kinds are growing rapidly. More seriously….

This observation has special relevance today

Islam and religious terrorism today:

“Moderate Islamic scholars say that deliberate pursuit of death is proscribed by Islamic law. But in planning a holy war, the theological point carries little weight against the advantage that men like Osama bin Laden and Sheik Yassin see in martyrdom. For them, the great ally is the anger and despair of those they recruit to their cause, commonly young men raised in poverty, and in the Palestinians’ case, in the destitution and institutionalized anger of refugee camps. In Afghanistan, Yemen or Gaza [GDN or Pakistan], the hard fact is that many of those who ready themselves to die have little on earth to cherish.”

John F. Burns: “The Promise of Paradise That Slays Peace,” NYT, Sunday, April 1, 2001.

See also Bruce Hoffman, 1998, Inside Terrorism, New York: Columbia University Press.


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