THORPEXA World Weather Research Programme
IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
David Rogers, ChairWMO Expert Group for THORPEX
International Research Implementation Plan
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Overview of THORPEX Planning Organisation
WMOCommission for
Atmospheric Sciences
International Scientific
Steering Committee
Expert Group -THORPEXImplementation
World Weather Research Programme
THORPEX International Core Steering
Committee
THORPEX SCIENCE PLANIMPLEMENTATION PLAN
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Expert GroupDr David Rogers Chairman, Chief Executive, Met Office, UK
Dr Michel Béland Chairman ICSC, Director General of Atmospheric and Climate Science for the Meteorological Service of Canada
Dr Philippe Bougeault
Head of Research Department European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Dr Jim Caughey EUMETNET/EUCOS Programme Manager, Met Office, UK
Dr Philippe Courtier Chairman SSC/WWRP, Directeur, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées (ENPC), France
Dr Chen Dehui Co-Chair Asian Regional Committee, Deputy Director, Research Center for Numerical Meteorological Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, China
Dr Tetsuo Nakazawa
Chair Asian Regional Committee, Head, 2nd Laboratory, Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
Dr David Parsons Co-Chair North American Regional Committee, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, USA
Dr Kamal Puri Ex-Chair JSC/CAS WGNE, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Australia
Dr Jim Purdom Chairman CBS Open Programme Area Group on Integrated Observing Systems, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, USA
Dr David Richardson
Co-Chair European Regional Committee, Met Office, UK
Dr Mel Shapiro Co-Chair ISSC, NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality, USA
Prof. Alan Thorpe Co-Chair ISSC, Director, NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science, Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
Dr Zoltan Toth National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Weather Service, USA
Dr Martin Miller Chairman CAS/JSC WGNE, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Ken Mylne Chairman CBS Open Programme Area Group on Data processing and Forecasting Systems, expert team on ensemble prediction systems. Ensemble Forecasting Research Manager, Met Office, UK
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WMO Secretariat
Dr Katsuhiro Abe Ocean Affairs (OCA) Division, APP Department
Dr David Carson Director, World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Department
Dr Peter Dexter Chief, Ocean Affairs (OCA) Division, APP Department
Dr Wolfgang Grabs Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (HWR) Department, Chief Water Management Division
Dr Don Hinsman Head, WMO Space Programme
Dr Dusan Hrcek Regional Activities and Technical Cooperation Programme (RCD) Department
Dr Georgi Kortchev Director, Applications Programme (APP) Department
Ms Haleh Kootval Chief, PWS Division, APP Department
Ms Teruko Manabe Ocean Affairs (OCA) Division, APP Department
Dr Elena Manaenkova
Director Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP) Department
Mr Joel Martellet World Weather Watch Programme (WWW) Department
Dr Buruhani Nyenzi World Climate Programme (WCP) Department
Dr Leslie Malone World Climate Programme (WCP) Department
Dr EduardSarukhanian
Special Advisor to the WMO Secretary-General on the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008
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Development of TIP• EG-TIP1 London (UK), 23-27 February, 2004
• EG-TIP2 Geneva (Switzerland), 21-23 April, 2004
• EG-TIP3 Beijing (China), 13-15 September, 2004
• EG-TIP4 Boulder (USA), 18 October, 2004
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Purpose of Implementation Plan
• The Implementation Plan (TIP) will guide the execution of THORPEX during the course of the programme.
• The TIP:– Defines THORPEX deliverables based on research scientific
opportunities, the expectations of the operational meteorological community, and the availability of resources;
– Coordinates academic and government research programmes and projects;
– Follows the THORPEX International Science Plan and the Regional Science Plans for Asia, Europe, North America and other regions or nations whenever their contribution to THORPEX is defined;
– Defines milestones and deliverables from each of the THORPEX participants;
– Identifies opportunities for collaboration between THORPEX and other programmes;
– Defines decision points and the necessary steps to carry out THORPEX research and development;
– Facilitates the transition of results to operations within the Members’ organizations.
• The TIP is dynamic, evolving as the science opportunities change.
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TIP Structure1. Introduction2. General Approach to Programme Design3. Core Research Objectives4. Predictability and Dynamical Processes Tasks5. Observing System Tasks6. Data Assimilation Tasks7. Social and Economic Applications Tasks8. A Global Interactive Forecasting System9. Intersection with Climate Prediction10. THORPEX Observing System Tests11. THORPEX Regional Campaigns (TReCs)12. THORPEX Demonstration Projects13. Major Campaigns14. Programme Management15. Financial Plan16. Draft Announcements of Opportunity17. Programme Implementation Schedule18. Contributing Institutions and Organizations19. References20. AbbreviationsANNEX I - TIP Terms of Reference ANNEX II - THORPEX IPO and Management Support Cost ANNEX III - WMO Bodies ANNEX IV – TIP Revision Tables
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THORPEX Goals
• To provide the research underpinning the WMO strategy to reduce by 50 per cent over the decade 2010-2019 the number of fatalities caused by meteorological, hydrological and climaterelated natural disasters compared with the ten-year average fatalities of 1995-2004.
• To increase the effectiveness of advanced warnings of high impact weather globally.
• To enable governments, societies and economic sectors to realise fully the benefit of weather and climate related information in critical decision-making.
• To demonstrate ways to increase cooperation and collaboration between National Meteorological Services to deliver the benefitsof new global earth observations, advanced communications, and new global forecasting systems to all societies.
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THORPEX Will…
• Extend the range of skilful weather forecasts to time scales of value in decision-making (up to 14 days) using probabilistic ensemble forecast techniques;
• Develop accurate and timely weather warnings in a form that can be readily used in decision-making support tools;
• Assess the impact of weather forecasts and associated outcomes on the development of mitigation strategies to minimise the impact of natural hazards.
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By…
• Advancing our knowledge of global-to-regional influences on the initiation, evolution, and predictability of high-impact weather;
• Designing the strategy for interactive forecasting and targeted observations thus contributing to the process of evolving the WMO Global Observing System (GOS) which is recognized as a core component of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS);
• Creating and evaluating systems for the assimilation of targetedobservations from satellites and in-situ measurements;
• Accelerating improvements in the accuracy weather forecasts;
• Testing and demonstrating the utility of a multinational multi-model multi-analysis global ensemble forecasting system;
• Improving and demonstrating decision support tools, which utiliseadvanced forecasting products to benefit directly social and economic sectors.
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Research will focus on…
• Predictability and Dynamical Processes• Observing Systems• Data Assimilation• Societal and Economic Applications• Developing and testing a Global Interactive Forecasting System
(GIFS)– THORPEX Interactive Global Grand Ensemble– Prototype operational GIFS
• Developing unified weather and climate prediction (with WCRP)• Developing of a new very high resolution global model• Demonstrating the benefits of the end-to-end forecast system
particularly with partners in Developing Countries • Providing a weather focus for other major programmes, such as
the International Polar Year• Regional campaigns
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Predictability and Dynamical Processes
Time Scale (Years)Goals
Projects 2 6 10
Effect of dynamical and physical processes on forecast skill
Determine required skill of forecast systems to predict Rossby Wave amplitudes
Influence of flow regimes on the climatology of forecast skill
Identify geographical regions where improved observations will lead to improved forecastsDetermine relationship between macro-states of the atmosphere and predictability
Predictive skill at all forecast ranges
Determine what limits predictability Quantify the limits of predictability for all forecast ranges
Role of model errors in forecasting
Quantify and attribute sources of forecast error to initial conditions and model uncertainty
Effect of initial condition uncertainty on forecasts
Develop initial perturbation schemes for EPS
Continue development of perturbation schemes for EPS
Develop improved ensemble prediction systems
Study resolution versus increased number of ensemble members
Incorporate new initial perturbation schemes
Incorporate NWP model perturbation schemes
Adaptive methods in ensemble generation
Develop optimum configuration of ensemble schemes
Multi Centre ensemble research
Create THORPEX data archive, access and verification tools for all THORPEX participants. Hosted at 2-4 centres worldwide
Inform development of TIGGE research system
Inform Operational Global Interactive Forecasting System
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Observing System tasks
Time Scale (Years)Goals
Projects 2 6 10
New Delivery Systems Assess current observing system strategy
Examine, develop and test new delivery platforms for targeting
Assess viability of observing system with new global NWP strategy
Deliver new operational observing system
Inform future satellite sensing systems and operational strategy
Field campaigns Complete Observing System Tests
Complete forecast impact studies
Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components
Complete Observing System Tests
Complete forecast impact studies
Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components
Complete Observing System Tests
Complete forecast impact studies
Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components
Refine Targeting and adaptive observing Strategies
Determine targeting and adaptive observing strategies using OSEs and OSSEs
Evaluate impact of strategies on forecast error
Determine role of targeting and adaptive observing in Redesign of the Global Observing Network
Generalise existing strategies Develop a generalised observing strategy for flow regimes dominated by physical processes
Test and evaluate observing strategies in TReCs
Design Observational networks Develop techniques for the optimal design of observing networks
Test and evaluate network design
Redesign of the Global Observing Network
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Data Assimilation TasksTime Scale (Years)Goals
Projects 2 6 10Quantify Observing System Errors
Develop generic representation of observation error
Utilise high volume datasets
Develop techniques to assimilate high resolution observations
Develop techniques to exploit hyper spectral sounders
Use of Satellite Observations
Develop techniques to use satellite data over land and in cloudy regions
Assimilation of physical processes
Develop new methods for assimilation of active sensor data
Background error covariance
Test and evaluate flow dependent models of background error in 3DVar and 4DVar
Methods for cycling flow-dependent background errors
Develop and test Kalman-filter and other ensemble-based data assimilation schemes
Quality Control Develop and test adaptive quality control algorithms
Model Uncertainty Develop method to incorporate model uncertainty into assimilation algorithms
Design Observational Networks
Develop techniques for the optimal design of observing networks
Test and evaluate network design Redesign of the global observing network
Refine targeting and adaptive observing strategies
Determine targeting and adaptive observing strategies using OSEs and OSSEs
Evaluate impact of strategies on forecast error
Determine role of targeting and adaptive observing in redesign of the global observing network
Generalise existing strategies
Develop a generalized observing strategy for flow regimes dominated by physical processes
Test and evaluate observing strategies in TReCs
Complete Design of Data Assimilation System
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Social and Economic Applications
Time Scale (Years)GoalsProjects 2 6 10High Impact Weather Forecasts
Develop and maintain a database of high impact forecasts
Maintain database
Advanced Forecast Verification Methods
Develop user specific verification methods
Provide a suite of verification measures for specific forecast applications
Cost and Benefits of Improved Forecasts
Determine which forecast improvements will have the greatest value to societies
Determine the marginal value of high-impact forecasts
Preliminary estimate of the cost and benefit of proposed THORPEX forecast improvements
Quantitative measure of value sufficient to inform government policies and business re-engineering
Quantify benefits of improved forecasting systemGeneralise application to societies and economies worldwide
Generalise application to societies and economies worldwide
User Specific Weather Products
Expand use of current forecast products in social and economic sectorsBeta-test new products
Suite of new decision support and consequence assessment tools
Full utilisation of probabilistic information in decision-making
Global Education and Capacity Building
Refine WMO training programmes Facilitate transfer of techniques and skills to forecast centresthroughout the world
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Global Interactive Forecast System
Time Scale (Years)GoalsProjects 2 6 10
Global Interactive Forecasting System (GIFS)
Use research conducted in TIGGE to inform the development of operational forecast systems
THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
Complete a prototype global multi-model ensemble system consisting of at least 3 models
Provide access to TIGGE database for general THORPEX research (including predictability and societal and economic impacts
Complete evaluation of multi-model ensemble system and use results to optimise the GIFS through a series of quasi-operational demonstration projects
Start to use system in real-time to drive regional ensembles in a series of demonstration projects
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Intersection with Climate Prediction
Time Scale (Years)Goals
Projects 2 6 10Coordinate development of observing systems for weather and climate prediction
Compare observing needs of weather and climate forecasting
Develop synergistic observing practices for weather and climate forecasting
Optimize observing networks for weather and climate forecasting
Development of unified weather-climate data assimilation and prediction system
Study coupled ocean-land-atmosphere model initialization and model drift problems
Demonstrated improvement in forecast skill in critical range through use of atmosphere, land and oceanic initial conditions
Convergence of weather and climate forecasts: Coupled ocean-atmosphere-land forecast model application on scales of 1-70 days
Develop tools for seamless socio-economic applications of weather and climate forecast
Compare weather and climate forecast applications
Develop application tools suitable with both weather and climate forecasting
Demonstrate value of seamless weather-climate forecast applications
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Initial THORPEX Projects
• THORPEX Observing System Tests– AMMA 2006– Cosmic data assimilation 2006+
• THORPEX Regional Campaigns– Atlantic (EUCOS ongoing)– Sahara Dust (impact on cyclogenesis)– Sand and Dust Storm 2005-2015 (participant)
• Demonstration Projects– Beijing 2008 Multi-model Global Ensemble/Mesoscale
Ensemble 2006-2008– ACMAD
• Major Campaigns– International Polar Year 2007/2008
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Demonstration Projects• Demonstrate social and
economic benefits that would result from the operational implementation of new forecasting tools and techniques– Disaster mitigation and
reduction in developing and least developed countries (e.g., Flood response)
– Economic efficiency (e.g. Energy generation)
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THORPEX Management Structure agreed at ICSC-4
Other TCs
Management Group
CBS
TAB SAB
ShAP Regional Committees
InternationalProgramme
Office
Data Policyand Management
WG
Global InteractiveForecasting System
WG
PredictabilityDynamical Processes
WG
ObservingSystem
WG
Data AssimilationObserving Strategies
WG
Societal&EconomicApplications
WG
Executive Board
THORPEX ICSC
SSC/WWRP
CAS
WGNE
JSC WCRP RAs
Executive Council ICSU EB IOC EC
Congress
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Current & Next Steps
• ICSC-4 has approved TIP• Next…
– Establish Executive Board• Recruit Executive Director
– Establishing Science Advisory Board• Select Co-chairs
– Establish Technical Advisory Board• Select Co-chairs with WMO/CBS
– Initial focus on• Greater involvement of Academic Community• TIGGE
– Workshop in March 2005• IPY
– National and Individual Plans in place by Jan 2005• Demonstration projects
– B08• TOSTs
– AMMA• TReCs
– Atlantic (EUCOS lead)
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Thanks to…
Overview of THORPEX Planning OrganisationExpert GroupWMO SecretariatDevelopment of TIPPurpose of Implementation PlanTIP StructureTHORPEX GoalsTHORPEX Will…By…Research will focus on…Predictability and Dynamical ProcessesObserving System tasksData Assimilation TasksSocial and Economic ApplicationsGlobal Interactive Forecast SystemIntersection with Climate PredictionInitial THORPEX ProjectsDemonstration ProjectsTHORPEX Management Structure agreed at ICSC-4Current & Next StepsThanks to…