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12 Presentation Title1 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOKA region in transition
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12 Presentation Title2 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
GLOBAL TRENDS
Geopolitical Economic1. Global terrorism 1. Global Growth2. US-JCPOA 2. US interest rates3. US 3. Dollar fluctuations
Global Growth is Improving
Interest Rate Convergence
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2018-global-economic-outlook
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2018-global-economic-outlook
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2018-global-economic-outlook
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12 Presentation Title3 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
OIL TRENDS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
16Fe
b-16
Mar
-16
Apr
-16
May
-16
Jun-
16Ju
l-16
Aug
-16
Sep-
16O
ct-1
6N
ov-1
6D
ec-1
6Ja
n-17
Feb-
17M
ar-1
7A
pr-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
n-17
Jul-1
7A
ug-1
7Se
p-17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
Last
…WTI Brent
Rising Oil prices Government Finances
Source: EIASource: IMF
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12 Presentation Title4 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
MENA TRENDS
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2017 2018 2019
MENA GDP Growth 2017-2020
MENA GDP growth2006 - 2016 growth averageWorld Average -2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Algeria
S. Arab
ia
Bahrai
n
Leban
on
Jordan
Tunisia
Morocco
Qatar
Turkey
UAEOman Ira
n
KuwaitEgyp
t
MENA GDP Growth 2017 vs 2018
Source: IMF
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12 Presentation Title5 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
MENA TRENDS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MENA Inflation 2015-2020
MENA 2006-2016 World average MENA
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Morocc
o
Bahra
in
Jord
an
Leban
onQat
arUAE
Saudi A
rabia
Tunisia
Oman
Kuwait
Alger
ia
Turkey Ira
nEgyp
t
MENA Inflation 2017 vs 2018
2017 2018Source: IMF Source: IMF
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12 Presentation Title6 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
KSA TRENDS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDPInflationBrent
KSA 2018 Outlook
Source: IMF
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12 Presentation Title7 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
KSA TRENDS
0.250.5
-0.58
0.59 0.57
1.6
2.7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q1-201
6
Q2-201
6
Q3-201
6
Q4-201
6
Q1-201
7
Q2-201
7
Q3-201
7
KSA Non-oil Growth
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Jan
-16
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-16
Ma
y-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Fe
b-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ap
r-17
Ma
y-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
KSA Business Activity
KSA
Source: MarkitSource: Central Department of Statistics & Information
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12 Presentation Title8 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
KSA TRENDS
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017
KSA: Consumer confidence
10.8
14.1
16.315.7
18.2 17.9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tourist Arrivals (millions)
Source: Nielsen
Source: SESRIC
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12 Presentation Title9 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
UAE ECONOMY
As we leave 2017…
1. Increase in input costs
2. Decline in output prices d
3. UAE growth relative to GCC
... and look forward to 2018
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Jan-1
6
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-1
7
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-1
7
Sep-17
Nov-17
Business Activity
Dubai Economy Tracker UAE
1. Stronger public sector spending
2. Government revenue diversification
3. Pick up in credit growth
Source: Emirates NBD Research
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12 Presentation Title10 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
UAE TOURISM
Source of consumption?Total contribution of travel and tourism to the economy
Source: World Travel & Tourism Council, Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017, United Arab Emirates
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12 Presentation Title11 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
GCC TRENDS
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Kenya
Pakist
an
Nigeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Jordan
Egypt
South…
Libya
Algeria
Iraq
Iran
Leban
on
Turkey
Oman
Bahrai
nSau
di…UAE
KuwaitQata
r
GDP Per Capita 2017 ($USD)
Source: IMF
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12 Presentation Title12 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
GCC TRENDS
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GCC Growth 2017 vs 2018
GDP growth Private consumption
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
KSA
Bahrai
nQata
rUAE
Oman
Kuwait
GCC Ave
rage 2
004-2
014
GCC Growth 2017 vs 2018
2017 2018
Source: World Bank
Source: IMF
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12 Presentation Title13 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
QATAR TRENDS
1.7
2.5
0.3
1.9
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017
Qatar Quarterly Growth
Source: Qatar Statistics Authority
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12 Presentation Title14 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
OMAN TRENDS
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Oman Unemployment (%)
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2015 2016 2017 2018
Oman GDP growth
Source: NCSI Source: Central Bank Oman
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12 Presentation Title15 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
OMAN TOURISM
Oman Inbound Tourism
GCC India UK Germany Pakistan0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17
Oman Tourist Arrivals
Source: NCSI Source: NCSI
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12 Presentation Title16 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
EGYPT ECONOMY
Societal challenges
Weak government financesHigh inflation
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12 Presentation Title17 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
EGYPT ECONOMY
40424446485052
Jan-
16
Mar-16
May-1
6Ju
l-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-
17
Mar-17
May-1
7Ju
l-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Business Activity
11.411.611.812.012.212.412.612.8
Q3-2017Q2-2017Q1-2017Q4-2016Q3-2016
Unemployement (%)
21.9
32.95 28.1
101520253035
Dec-20
17
Nov-20
17
Oct-20
17
Sep-20
17
Aug-20
17
Jul-2
017
Jun-
2017
May-2
017
Apr-20
17
Mar-20
17
Feb-20
17
Jan-
2017
Inflation % (y-o-y increase)37,020.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
Jan-
2017
Feb-20
17
Mar-20
17
Apr-20
17
May-2
017
Jun-
2017
Jul-2
017
Aug-20
17
Sep-20
17
Oct-20
17
Nov-20
17
Foreign Exchange Reserves USD (in million)
Source: Central Bank of EgyptSource: Central Bank of Egypt
Source: Markit Source: CAPMAS, Egypt
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12 Presentation Title18 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
EGYPT TOURISM
Source of consumption?Total contribution of travel and tourism to the economy
Source: World Travel & Tourism Council, Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017, Egypt
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12 Presentation Title19 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
KEY TAKEAWAYS
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12 Presentation Title20 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK
EMIR - Emerging Markets Intelligence & Research@EMIRresearch
EMIR | Emerging Markets Intelligence & Research
@EMIRresearch@SamirSM_EMIR @Trevor_EMIR @Gary_EMIR
EMIR | Emerging Markets Intelligence & Research
STAY CONNECTED
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12 Presentation Title21 MENA BUSINESS OUTLOOK