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“Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of.” —Anthony Muh,
head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management
“If you don’t like change, you’re going to like
irrelevance even less.” —General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff,
U. S. Army
“September 11 amounts to World War III—the third
great totalitarian challenge to open societies in the last
100 years.” —Thomas Friedman/NYT/01.08.2004
1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of
Total Global Growth in 2002.
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
397,000,000 fixed phone
lines = 90X since 1989.
Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
2003: China-Hong Kong leading producer in 8 of 12 key consumer electronic product areas (>50%: DVDs, digital cameras; >33.33%:
DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; >25% mobile phones, color TVs,
PDAs, car stereos).Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes
Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003
“14 MILLION service jobs are in
danger of being shipped overseas” —
The Dobbs Report/USN&WR/11.03/re new UCB
study
--79% of U.S. jobs in “structurally changed professions” (“permanently eliminated jobs”)(40K of 160K U.S. IBM)
--“As we trade we release more labor from the service sector because our highly skilled and highly paid workers lose their competitive advantage. So we go to the next big thing. We specialize in innovation. We develop new products and start new industries.” (Erica Groshen, labor economist, Fed of NY)
Source: CNN/Money/01.07.2004
“One Singaporean worker costs as much as …
3 … in Malaysia 8 … in Thailand 13 … in China 18 … in India.”
Source: The Straits Times/08.18.03
Solution: Re-brand Singapore … from the “place that works” to
the “place that’s cool” (and works, too)
“A California biotechnology company has put the entire
sequence of the human genome on a single chip, allowing
researchers to readily conduct single experiments on the
complex relationships between the 30,000 genes that make up a
human being in.” —Page 1, Financial Times/10.03.2003
“There will be more
confusion in the business world in the next decade than in any decade in history. And the current pace of
change will only accelerate.”Steve Case
Forbes100 from 1917 to 1987: 39 members of the Class of ’17 were alive
in ’87; 18 in ’87 F100; 18 F100 “survivors” underperformed the market
by 20%; just 2 (2%), GE & Kodak, outperformed the market 1917 to 1987.
S&P 500 from 1957 to 1997: 74 members of the Class of ’57 were
alive in ’97; 12 (2.4%) of 500 outperformed the market from 1957 to 1997.
Source: Dick Foster & Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market
“Good management was the most powerful reason [leading firms] failed to stay atop their industries. Precisely because these firms
listened to their customers, invested aggressively in technologies that would provide their customers more
and better products of the sort they wanted, and because they carefully studied market trends and
systematically allocated investment capital to innovations that promised the best returns, they lost
their positions of leadership.”
Clayton Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma
“Far from being a source of comfort,
bigness became a code for inflexibility.” —John
Micklethwait & Adrian Wooldridge, The Company
Forget>“Learn”
“The problem is never how to get new, innovative
thoughts into your mind,
but how to get the old ones out.”
Dee Hock
Just Say No …
“I don’t intend to be known as the ‘King of
the Tinkerers.’ ”CEO, large financial services company
Steel: 75 million tons in ’82 to 102 million tons in ’02.
289,000 steelworkers in ’82 to 74,000 steelworkers in ’02.
Source: Fortune/11.24.03
E.g. …
Jeff Immelt: 75% of “admin, back room, finance” “digitalized” in
3 years.
Source: BW (01.28.02)
“Organizations will still be critically important in the world,
but as ‘organizers,’ not ‘employers’!” — Charles Handy
Ford: “Vehicle brand owner” (“design, engineer, and
market, but not actually make”)
Source: The Company, John Micklethwait & Adrian Wooldridge
“Our entire facility is digital. No paper, no film, no medical records. Nothing. And it’s all integrated—from the lab to X-ray to records to physician order entry. Patients don’t have to wait for anything. The information from the physician’s office is
in registration and vice versa. The referring physician is immediately sent an email telling him his patient has shown up. … It’s wireless in-house. We have 800 notebook computers that are wireless. Physicians can walk around with a computer that’s
pre-programmed. If the physician wants, we’ll go out and wire their house so they can sit on the couch and connect to the
network. They can review a chart from 100 miles away.” —David Veillette, CEO, Indiana Heart Hospital (HealthLeaders/12.2002)
“Dawn Meyerreicks, CTO of the Defense Information Systems Agency, made one of the most fateful military calls of the 21st century. After 9/11 … her office
quickly leased all the available transponders covering Central Asia. The implications should change everything about U.S. military thinking in the
years ahead.
“The U.S. Air Force had kicked off its fight against the Taliban with an ineffective bombing campaign, and Washington was anguishing over whether to send in a few Army divisions. Donald Rumsfeld told Gen. Tommy Franks to
give the initiative to 250 Special Forces already on the ground. They used satellite phones, Predator surveillance drones, and GPS- and laser-based
targeting systems to make the air strikes brutally effective.
“In effect, they ‘Napsterized’ the battlefield by cutting out the middlemen (much of the military’s command and control) and working directly with the
real players. … The data came in so fast that HQ revised operating procedures to allow intelligence analysts and attack planners to work directly
together. Their favorite tool, incidentally, was instant messaging over a secure network.”—Ned Desmond/“Broadband’s New Killer App”/Business
2.0/ OCT2002
“The mechanical speed of combat vehicles has not
increased since Rommel’s day, so the difference is all in the
operational speed, faster communications and faster
decisions.” —Edward Luttwak, on the unprecedented pace of the move toward Baghdad
“Ebusiness is about rebuilding the organization from the
ground up. Most companies today are not built to exploit the Internet.
Their business processes, their approvals, their hierarchies, the
number of people they employ … all of that is wrong for running an
ebusiness.”
Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins
“While everything may
be better, it is also increasingly the same.”
Paul Goldberger on retail, “The Sameness of Things,” The New York Times
“The ‘surplus society’ has a surplus of
similar companies, employing
similar people, with similar educational backgrounds, coming up
with similar ideas, producing
similar things, with similar prices
and similar quality.”
Kjell Nordström and Jonas Ridderstråle, Funky Business
“Companies have defined so much ‘best practice’
that they are now more or less identical.”
Jesper Kunde, Unique Now ... or Never
“We make over three new product announcements a
day. Can you remember
them? Our customers can’t!”Carly Fiorina
“These days, building the best server isn’t enough. That’s the
price of entry.”Ann Livermore, Hewlett-Packard
Gerstner’s IBM: Systems Integrator of
choice. Global Services:
$35B. Pledge/’99: Business Partner Charter. 72 strategic partners,
aim for 200. Drop many in-house
programs/products. (BW/12.01).
“You are headed for commodity
hell if you don’t have services.” —
Lou Gerstner, on IBM’s coming revolution (1997)
“Customer Satisfaction” to “Customer Success”
“We’re getting better at [Six Sigma] every day. But we really
need to think about the customer’s profitability. Are customers’
bottom lines really benefiting from what we provide them?”
Bob Nardelli, GE Power Systems
Nardelli’s goal ($50B to $100B by 2005):
“… move Home Depot beyond selling ‘goods’ to selling ‘home services.’ …
He wants to capture home improvement dollars wherever and
however they are spent.” E.g.: “house calls” (At-Home Service: $10B by ’05?) … “pros shops” (Pro Set) … “home project management”
(Project Management System … “a deeper selling relationship”).
Source: USA Today/06.14.2002
“UPS wants to take over the sweet spot in the endless loop
of goods, information and capital that all the packages
[it moves] represent.”ecompany.com/06.01 (E.g., UPS Logistics
manages the logistics of 4.5M Ford vehicles, from 21 mfg. sites to 6,000 NA dealers)
“UPS used to be a trucking company with technology. Now it’s a technology company
with trucks.” —Forbes, upon naming UPS
“Company of the Year” in Y2000
And the Winners Are …
Televisions –12%Cable TV service +5%
Toys -10%Child care +5%
Photo equipment -7%Photographer’s fees +3%
Sports Equipment -2%Admission to sporting event +3%
New car -2%Car repair +3%
Dishes & flatware -1%Eating out +2%
Gardening supplies -0.1%Gardening services +2%
Source: WSJ/05.16.03
IBM/Q3/10.15.03/Rev: +5%
Services/Consulting: +11%Software: +5%Hardware: -5%
PCs: -2%Technology/Chips: -33%
“Experiences are as distinct from services as services are from
goods.”Joseph Pine & James Gilmore, The Experience Economy:
Work Is Theatre & Every Business a Stage
“Club Med is more than just a ‘resort’; it’s a means of rediscovering oneself, of inventing an
entirely new ‘me.’ ”
Source: Jean-Marie Dru, Disruption
“The [Starbucks] Fix” Is on …
“We have identified a ‘third place.’ And I really believe that sets us apart. The third place is
that place that’s not work or home. It’s the place our
customers come for refuge.”Nancy Orsolini, District Manager
Experience: “Rebel Lifestyle!”
“What we sell is the ability for a 43-year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride
through small towns and have people be afraid of him.”
Harley exec, quoted in Results-Based Leadership
1940: Cake from flour, sugar (raw materials economy): $1.00
1955: Cake from Cake mix (goods economy): $2.00
1970: Bakery-made cake (service economy): $10.00
1990: Party @ Chuck E. Cheese (experience economy) $100.00
1940: Cake from flour, sugar (raw materials economy): $1.00
1955: Cake from Cake mix (goods economy): $2.00
1970: Bakery-made cake (service
economy): $10.001990: Party @ Chuck E. Cheese
(experience economy) $100.00
Bob Lutz: “I see us as being in the art business. Art,
entertainment and mobile sculpture, which,
coincidentally, also happens to provide transportation.”
Source: NYT 10.19.01
It’s All About EXPERIENCES: “Trapper” to “Wildlife Damage-control Professional”
Trapper: <$20 per beaver pelt.
WDCP: $150/“problem beaver”; $750-$1,000 for flood-control
piping … so that beavers can stay.
Source: WSJ/05.21.2002
Duet … Whirlpool … “washing machine” to “fabric care system” … white goods: “a sea of
undifferentiated boxes” … $400 to $1,300 … “the Ferrari of washing machines” …
consumer: “They are our little mechanical buddies. They have personality. When they are
running efficiently, our lives are running efficiently. They are part of my family.” …
“machine as aesthetic showpiece” … “laundry room” to “family studio” / “designer laundry
room” (complements Sub-Zero refrigerator and home-theater center)
Source: New York Times Magazine/01.11.2004
“We are in the twilight of a society based on data. As information and intelligence become the domain of computers, society will place more value on the one human ability that cannot be automated: emotion.
Imagination, myth, ritual - the language of emotion - will affect everything from our purchasing decisions
to how we work with others. Companies will thrive on the basis of their stories and myths. Companies will need to understand
that their products are less important than their stories.”
Rolf Jensen, Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies
“A great company is defined by the
fact that it is not compared
to its peers.”Phil Purcell, Morgan Stanley
“When land was the scarce resource, nations battled
over it. The same is happening now for talented people.”
Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer, futureWEALTH
Age of AgricultureIndustrial Age
Age of Information IntensificationAge of Creation Intensification
Source: Murikami Teruyasu, Nomura Research Institute
“The leaders of Great Groups love talent and know where to find it. They revel in
the talent of others.”Warren Bennis & Patricia Ward Biederman,
Organizing Genius
From “1, 2 or you’re out” [JW] to …
“Best Talent in each industry segment to build
best proprietary intangibles” [EM]
Source: Ed Michaels, War for Talent
The Cracked Ones Let in the Light
“Our business needs a massive transfusion of talent, and talent, I believe, is most likely to be found
among non-conformists, dissenters and rebels.”
David Ogilvy
“AS LEADERS, WOMEN RULE: New Studies find that female managers
outshine their male counterparts in almost
every measure”Title, Special Report, BusinessWeek, 11.20.00
“TAKE THIS QUICK QUIZ: Who manages more things at once? Who puts more effort into their appearance? Who usually takes care of the details? Who finds it
easier to meet new people? Who asks more questions in a conversation? Who is a better
listener? Who has more interest in communication skills? Who is more inclined to get involved?
Who encourages harmony and agreement? Who has better intuition? Who works with a longer ‘to do’ list? Who enjoys a recap to the day’s events? Who is
better at keeping in touch with others?”
Source: Selling Is a Woman’s Game: 15 Powerful Reasons Why Women Can Outsell Men, Nicki Joy & Susan Kane-Benson
Our Mission
To develop and manage talent;to apply that talent,
throughout the world, for the benefit of clients;to do so in partnership;
to do so with profit.
WPP
Saviors-in-Waiting
Disgruntled CustomersOff-the-Scope Competitors
Rogue EmployeesFringe Suppliers
Wayne Burkan, Wide Angle Vision: Beat the Competition by Focusing on Fringe Competitors, Lost Customers, and Rogue Employees
CUSTOMERS: “Future-defining customers may
account for only 2% to 3% of your total, but they represent a crucial
window on the future.”Adrian Slywotzky, Mercer Consultants
“Generally, disruptive technologies underperform established
established products in mainstream markets. But they have
other features that a few fringe (and generally new) customers
value.”
Clayton Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma
Primary Obstacles to “Marketing-driven Change”
1. Fear of “cannibalism.”2. “Excessive cult of the consumer”/ “customer driven”/ “slavery to demographics, market research and focus groups.”3.Creating “sustainable advantage.” Source: John-Marie Dru, Disruption
“Chivalry is dead. The new code of conduct is an active strategy of disrupting the status quo
to create an unsustainable series of competitive advantages. This is not an age of defensive
castles, moats and armor. It is rather an age of cunning, speed and surprise. It may be hard for some to hang up the chain mail of ‘sustainable
advantage’ after so many battles. But hypercompetition, a state in which sustainable advantages are no longer possible, is now the
only level of competition.”
Rich D’Aveni, Hypercompetition: Managing the Dynamics of Strategic Maneuvering
COMPETITORS: “The best swordsman in the world doesn’t need to fear
the second best swordsman in the world; no, the person for him to be afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who has never had a
sword in his hand before; he doesn’t do the thing he ought to do, and so the expert isn’t
prepared for him; he does the thing he ought not to do and often it catches the expert out and
ends him on the spot.”
Mark Twain
“To grow, companies need to break out of a vicious
cycle of competitive benchmarking, imitation and
pursuit.” —W. Chan Kim & Renee Mauborgne,
“”Think for Yourself —Stop Copying a Rival,” Financial Times/08.11.03
Employees: “Are there enough weird
people in the lab these days?”
V. Chmn., pharmaceutical house, to a lab director (06.01)
“Ninety percent of what we call ‘management’ consists of making it
difficult for people to get things done.” – P.D.
The Kotler Doctrine:
1965-1980: R.A.F.(Ready.Aim.Fire.)
1980-1995: R.F.A.(Ready.Fire!Aim.)
1995-????: F.F.F.(Fire!Fire!Fire!)
“If Microsoft is good at anything, it’s avoiding the trap of worrying about criticism. Microsoft fails constantly.
They’re eviscerated in public for lousy
products. Yet they persist, through version after version, until they get
something good enough. Then they leverage the power they’ve gained in
other markets to enforce their standard.”Seth Godin, Zooming
“Reward excellent
failures. Punish mediocre successes.”
Phil Daniels, Sydney exec (and, de facto, Jack)
Audie Murphy was the most decorated soldier in WW2.
He won every medal we had to offer, plus 5 presented by Belgium and France. There was one common medal he
never won …
“You can’t behave in a calm, rational manner.
You’ve got to be out there on the lunatic fringe.” — Jack
Welch, on GE’s quality program
“In Tom’s world it’s always better to try a swan dive and deliver a colossal belly flop than to step timidly off the board while holding your
nose.”—Fast Company /October2003
Successful Businesses’ Dozen Truths: TP’s 30-Year Perspective
1. Insanely Great & Quirky Talent.2. Disrespect for Tradition.3. Totally Passionate (to the Point of Irrationality) Belief in What We Are Here to Do.4. Utter Disbelief at the Bullshit that Marks “Normal Industry Behavior.”5. A Maniacal Bias for Execution … and Utter Contempt for Those Who Don’t “Get It.”6. Speed Demons.7. Up or Out. (Meritocracy Is Thy Name. Sycophancy Is Thy Scourge.)8. Passionate Hatred of Bureaucracy.9. Willingness to Lead the Customer … and Take the Heat Associated Therewith. (Mantra: Satan Invented Focus Groups to Derail True Believers.)10. “Reward Excellent Failures. Punish Mediocre Successes.” 11. Courage to Stand Alone on One’s Record of Accomplishment Against All the Forces of Conventional Wisdom.12. A Crystal Clear Understanding of Brand Power.