Top 10 Global Trends

8/12/2019 Top 10 Global Trends

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TOP10GLOBAL TRENDS

Affecting DowntownsAND HOW TO Respond

at Home

Brad Segal, Progressive Urban Management Associateswww.pumaworldhq.com



“As we look deeper into the 21 st century, the name of the game has changed

Instead of isolation, we are faced with the pressing reality of a single, rapidly

evolving, global and multiethnic culture. Connections and relationships

cannot be ignored, because what happens in one part of the world, whether

economic, political, cultural or environmental, affects all other parts.”

Loheed& Brooks“New Places for a New Age”Urban Land

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS Affecting Downtowns

Demographics

1. Changing Demographics

2. Immigration Trends

3. Changes Within the

“ Creative Class”

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009




Lifestyles

4. Traffic Congestion & Value of Time

5. Trends in Health Care, Wellness

& Recreation

6. Growth of Tourism

7. America’s (and Australia’s)

Growing Debt Burden

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009




Global Competition & Change

8. Emergence of China, India &a Planetary Middle Class

9. Continued Advances in

Technology

10. Environmentalism,

Sustainabili ty &Climate Change

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



1. Changing American Demographics

“Baby Boom” 77 million born 1946 to 1964

Sheer numbers support labor markets,

entitlements College education rates increase 5x

Shaped by suburbia, Cold War & Civil

Rights era

Living longer, healthier

Unprecedented wealth, to shift to next

generation

Empty nest market looking to downsize,

urbanize?GLOBAL TRENDS 2009




“Generation X” 44 million born 1961 to 1981

Cynical about the future, bitter toward

baby boomers

Shaped by information age –

ability to multi-task & transfer skills

enhances marketability in job market Value lifestyle over company loyalty

Discretionary spenders, homebuyersat earlier age

Majority now have children

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009




“Millennials” 70 million born 1977 to 2003 Growing up with technology –

multi-taskers

More optimistic, tolerant andopen-minded

Multi-cultural – in majority of 100

largest U.S. cities, more than half under age 15 are racial and ethnic

minorities

Spirit of volunteerism and passionto foster change

Millennials voted 2:1 for Obama

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



2. Immigration Trends

U.S. & Australia only major growing industrial countries,due mostly to immigration

Only 5 countries welcome immigrantsas permanent residents: U.S., Canada,

Australia, New Zealand & Israel

85% of U.S. immigrants from Latin America or Asia

25% of Australians were born overseas

U.S. shift away from traditional urbangateways to suburbs & rural areas

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



3. Changes Within the “ Creative Class”

Richard Florida’s “creatives” attracted to diverse, tolerant,innovative and vibrant environments…

Sydney & Melbourne rank 4th on Florida’s

scale, comparable to Boston & Seattle Millennials to replenish creative class

Growing importance of well-educated

young women-60% of US college enrollment by 2013

-Majority of US workforce by 2010

Women as agents of geopolitical change

-Greater importance on health care, the

environment and economic development

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



4. Traffic Congestion and the Value of Time

Auto dependency increasingly costly in time and money

Worsening traffic congestion cost Americans $87 billion in 2007,

36 hours in average annual delays

In Australia, $9.4 billion in 2005

Additional road capacity doing little

to stem congestion

U.S. transit growth has exceeded driving

growth since 1996

Avoiding congestion a motivation forurban living?

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



5. Trends in Healthcare and Wellness

Demand for services increasing, supply decreasing… Declining hospital use and stays for cost containment

Nearly 50 million U.S. uninsured adding to cost burden

13.7% U.S. GDP vs. 8.5% Australia GDP

More reliance on outpatient, “retail”

and e-medicine Shortage of doctors and nurses

projected in U.S., but Australia, N.Z.

and Canada lead recruitment Urban form and health –more obesity

in suburbs, majority of Americans

would like to walk and bike moreGLOBAL TRENDS 2009



6. Growth of Tourism

An international growth market…

Tourism is world’s largest employer – 200 million jobs

Australia ranked #8, N.Z. #36, as international tourism destinations by $$

Expanding global middle class will

increase tourism

Cultural heritage tourism growing.Visitors stay longer, spend more

Convention center space

increasing, demand limited by

industry consolidations, e-business

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



7. America’s (and Australia’s) Growing Debt Burden

Debt looms as a dark economic cloud…

US national debt $38+K, Mortgage debt $40K & Consumer debt $8.5K per capita

Australia national debt nearing $9K per capita Debt to GDP rankings: U.K., U.S., Australia

Nearly 33% of Americans live pay check to pay check

vs. 7% of consumers in China, India and Mexico In 1950, 16 workers for each social security recipient;

By 2030, 2 workers for each eligible recipient

Pre-recession economic expansion saw savings ratesdecline from 7.5% of income to below zero, now about 4.0%

Nearly half of U.S. national debt held by foreign countries

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



8. The Emergence of China, India and a Planetary

Middle Class

“We are at the dawn of the post-U.S. century”.

Edward M. Casal, Urban Land, August 2008

The World’s Largest Economies 1850 to 2050

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009

1850 1950 2009 2050

China United States United States China

India United Kingdom Japan United States

United Kingdom Germany China India



8. The Emergence of China, India and a PlanetaryMiddle Class

In 2007 China consumed 34% ofglobal steel and 50% of cement

2006 construction in Shanghai =

Existing NYC office market

Billionaires in China –15 in 2006,

106 in 2007

Country with largest number ofEnglish speakers by 2010? India

Growing global middle class creates

markets for U.S. goods “Innovation trumps brawn”

Income disparities continue tocreate instability, foster terrorism

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



9. Continued Advances in Technology

Areas where technology will have the largest impact:

Health, biotechnology (genomics,

bioinformatics, augmentation)

Alternative sources of energy

Nanotechnology (engineering on

a molecular scale)

Quality of life enhancements –

accessing information andentertainment through e-portals

New channels for doing business

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



9. Continued Advances in Technology

Technology and business… “World is Flat” = globalization to be driven

by individuals

Nearly 1.5 billion now online, 2.0 billionexpected by 2011

“Uploading” –Bottom-up creation

of culture, knowledge & innovation

E-commerce increasing, but less than

3% of total retail sales

Cities compete with increasing personal

mobility and living options

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



10. Environmentalism and Sustainabil ity

A rapidly urbanizing world… Majority of planet now lives in cities

Today 3 billion –6 billion by 2050

Autos in China…

1 million in 1995

125 million today

Exceed US by 2030

At recent growth rates, number of vehicles

and global energy consumption could more

than double by 2030

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



10. Environmentalism and Sustainabil ity

A rapidly urbanizing world… U.S. transportation system 97%

dependent on petroleum fuels

U.S. buildings consume 36% of

total energy, 65% of electricity

Half of American homes projectedby 2030 do not yet exist

U.S. cities launching green building

and sustainability initiatives –San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



Conclusions

Overall, trends favorable forvibrant downtowns?

Population growing, younger &older, more diverse

Increasingly connected &

competitive world

Resource-intensive lifestyles

increasingly expensive andnot sustainable

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/Sydney_Skyline.jpg



Conclusions

Warning signs that could impede new investment…

Global disparities create continued

instability

American debt burden on collision

course with aging demographicsand global inflationary pressures

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



Conclusions

Wild cards that can affect long-range projections…

Leaders and their ideas matter

Economic volatility introduces a

major risk factor

Geopolitical rivalries triggerdiscontinuities more thandoes technological change

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

US National Intelligence Council, Nov 2008

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009



Implications for Downtowns

Demographics…

Welcome younger, multi-cultural

populations

Create an environment that appeals

to young women

Keep the talent pool as they age Diverse price points needed

for housing

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009

I l i ti f D t




Lifestyles…

Implement comprehensive transit strategies

Offer affordable & accessible health care Foster education

Offer stimulating, multi-dimensional

experiences

Walkability and active recreation

Tourism infrastructure –growinginternational clientele

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009

I l i ti f D t




Global Competition & Change…

Entrepreneurship continues to

be the key to job growth

Adaptive reuse more affordable

as construction costs rise

Lead sustainability efforts

GLOBAL TRENDS 2009

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/earth_1_apollo17_big.gif



TOP10GLOBAL TRENDS


at Home

Brad Segal, Progressive Urban Management Associates



TOP10GLOBAL TRENDS


at Home

Brad Segal, Progressive Urban Management Associateswww.pumaworldhq.com

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