Toronto Social Divide - Update on 3-Cities - OISE …...Toronto average Middle income: within 20% of...

Toronto’s(Growing(Social1spa3al(Divide!

!

An!Update!on!the!'Three!Ci1es!in!Toronto'!Trend,!

197082012!David!Hulchanski,!University!of!Toronto!

Centre!for!Learning,!Social!Economy!&!Work,!OISE!UT,!!30!September!2015!!

The!research:!

Ini1ated!in!2005!

to!study!trends!in!

Toronto;!extended!

to!five!other!

metropolitan!

areas!in!2012,!

thanks!to!research!

grants!from!the!

Social!Sciences!&!

Humani1es!

Research!Council!

of!Canada.!!

Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca

September 2015 Page 1 of 24 J David Hulchanski

Ci1es!have!always!been!divided!

Rich!&!poor!&!in8between!areas!

So!…!

What!is!new!or!different?!

DIVIDED!CITIES!

3

Today:!!A!new!socio8spa1al!order!!with!stronger!(more!rigid)!divisions,!!and!greater!inequality!

“Those!changes!may!be!summarized!as!an!!increase!in!the!strength!of!divisions!in!the!city!and!!the!inequality!among!them.”!!!

!–!Peter!Marcuse!&!Ronald!van!Kempen,!2000,!p.272!

4



! !!school!dropout!rates;!!! !!childhood!achievement;!!

! !!transi1on!rates!from!welfare!to!work;!!

! !!deviant!behaviour;!!! !!social!exclusion;!&!! !!social!mobility!

Neighbourhoods!Maeer!Research!has!found!“area!related!outcomes”!!such!as!

5

Socio8spa1al!change!in!metropolitan!areas!!What!are!the!

TRENDS,!!PROCESSES,!!CONSEQUENCES,!POLICY!INTERVENTIONS!



hep://3ci1es.neighbourhoodchange.ca!

The!2010!report!has!a!web!version!with!many!related!resources!

2010!REPORT!

2010!REPORT:!If!Nothing!Changes!(last!page)!

City!#3!!=!!60%!

City!#1!!=!!30%!



What!will!our!City!look!like!in!10!years?!!

CBC(Town(Hall:(Toronto(2025(!CBC!TORONTO!ATRIUM,!250!Front!St!West!

Tuesday,!March!31,!7:30pm!8!9:00pm!

UPDATE!of!the!“Three!Ci1es”!Trend!

from!!

1970!–!2005!

to!

1970!–!2010!

1970!–!2012!



35!Year!Trend,!Toronto,!197082005!

Comparing!!2005!CT!avg.!incomes!to!1970!

40%

40%

20%

Change!in!census!tract!average!individual!income!compared!to!the!Toronto!CMA!average,!2005!versus!1970!!!!

Comparing!!2010!CT!avg.!incomes!to!1970!

40%

35%

25%

40!Year!Trend,!Toronto,!197082010!Change!in!census!tract!average!individual!income!compared!to!the!Toronto!CMA!average,!2010!versus!1970!!!!



40% 40%

20%

42!Year!Trend,!Toronto,!197082012!Change!in!census!tract!average!individual!income!compared!to!the!Toronto!CMA!average,!2012!versus!1970!!!!

28%

32%

40%

14



35%(

56%(



0.28

0.29

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.28

0.29

0.30

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.37

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

GINI Coefficient for Canada, 1976-2010 Adjusted Total & After-Tax Income, All Family Units

Adjusted Total Income

Adjusted After-Tax Income Each individual is represented by their household income adjusted for household size.

1988!0.28!

1994!0.29!

2000!0.32!





Similar!trends!outside!City!of!Toronto!

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Perc

enta

ge o

f Cen

sus T

ract

s

Changing Income Distribution in theCity of Toronto, 1970-2012

Middle Income Census Tracts:from 58% (1970) to 30% (2012)

High Income Census Tracts:from 16% (1970) to 21% (2012)

Low Income Census Tracts: from 26% (1970) to 49% (2012)

Income Categories Low income: more than 20% below the Toronto average Middle income: within 20% of the Toronto average High Income: more than 20% above the Toronto average

Notes Census tract average individual income from all sources, before-tax. Income is measured relative to the Toronto metropolitan area average each year. Income 1970-2005 is from the Census. Income for 2010-2012 is Canada Revenue Agency taxfiler data.

Data provided by the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS) has been proven to be untrustworthy. No NHS data is used here.

The!following!set!of!maps,!decade8by8decade,!show!the!loss!of!middle!income!census!tracts!(the!disappearing!yellow!on!the!maps)!









484 23%

588 28%

754 33%

1,143 48%

1,304 52%

1,373 55%

1,337 51%

1,313 63%

1,277 60%

1,163 51%

870 36%

798 32%

703 28%

737 28%

287 14%

268 13%

353 16%

377 16%

392 16%

419 17%

540 21%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(tho

usan

ds)

Neighbourhood Income & Population, City of Toronto, 1970-2010

High Income (More than

20% Above)

Middle Income (Within

20%)

Low Income (More than

20% Below)

Income Definition Notes: Individual income is for persons

15 and over, from all sources, before-tax.

Census tract boundaries correspond to

those that existed in each census year.

Income for 2010 is based on all taxfilers

for 2006 CT boundaries.

Census Tract Average Income compared to the CMA Average

29

80, 5% 141, 7%

305 14%

581 22%

798 27% 438

88%

711 83%

1,238 77%

1,381 73%

1,508 68%

1,592 61%

1,707 58%

62, 12%

141, 16%

300 19%

364 19%

396 18%

444 17%

457 15%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

(tho

usan

ds)

Neighbourhood Income & Population, Toronto's "905 Region", 1970-2010

High Income (More than

20% Above)

Middle Income (Within

20%)

Low Income (More than

20% Below)

Income Definition Notes: Individual income is for persons

15 and over, from all sources, before-tax.

Census tract boundaries correspond to

those that existed in each census year.

Income for 2010 is based on all taxfilers

for 2006 CT boundaries.

Census Tract Average Income compared to the CMA Average

Toronto's "905 Region" is defined

as the census tracts outside the

City of Toronto and within the

Toronto census metropolitan area.

This area consists of Peel region,

York region and large parts of

Durham and Halton regions which

together are commonly referred

to as "outer suburbs" of Toronto.

8, 1%

30



31

32



Why!worry!about!more!!rigid!socio8spa1al!divisions!!and!greater!inequality?!

Inequality!promotes!strategies!that!are!more!self8interested,!less!affilia1ve,!oren!highly!an1social,!more!stressful,!and!likely!to!give!rise!to!higher!levels!of!violence,!poorer!community!rela1ons,!and!worse!health. –!Richard!Wilkinson,!The!Impact!of!Inequality,!2005:22!

33

Why!does!Income!Inequality!Maeer?!



Toronto’s!!Segregated!Ethno8Cultural!Popula1on,!2006!

35

What!can!be!done?!!!!!

Policy(op3ons(

Economic((INEQUALITY(

Socio1spa3al((POLARIZATION(/(EXCLUSION(

Spa3al((SEGREGATION(&(DISADVANTAGE(

36



Policy((Op3ons(((for!the!Divided!City!

!

For some,

Why policy options?

What is the problem?

“There is no problem.”

37

What!can!be!done?!!!

Federal!!&!!Provincial(!Policy!!Ac1on!

!

ESSENTIAL!!Government!Policy!Ac1ons!

Income!Support!Strategy!

Effec1ve!An18Discrimina1on!

Strategy!

Affordable!Housing!Strategy!

Labour!Market!Strategy!

38



There is ... no justification for the level or condition of poverty that coexists with this wealth.

Poverty does not directly cause violence ...

If not ameliorated it can nonetheless play a central role in generating

•  alienation, •  a lack of hope or opportunity, •  low self-esteem, •  a sense of having no future, and •  other immediate risk factors

1.  The level of poverty 2.  The concentration of poverty 3.  The circumstances of poverty

40



If City #3 was a separate Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), it would be Canada’s 4th largest.

It lacks the rapid transit and many services of a CMA.



What!happened!to!Transit!City?!!

- $4 Billion



SOCIAL INJUSTICE NOW “NORMAL”

Five!new!tenets!of!injus1ce!

1.!Eli1sm!is!efficient!

2.!Exclusion!is!necessary!

3.!Prejudice!is!natural!

4.!Greed!is!good!

5.!Despair!is!inevitable!Daniel Dorling University of Sheffield

45



For fu r ther in fo rmat ion

www.NeighbourhoodChange.ca

Larry Bourne, David Ley, Richard Maaranen, Robert Murdie, Damaris Rose, Alan Walks

Partnership Grant, 2012-2019

Public Outreach Grant, 2010-11

Community University Research Alliance, 2005-2010



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Toronto Social Divide - Update on 3-Cities - OISE …...Toronto average Middle income: within 20% of...

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