© UPU 2010 – All rights reserved
Towards better measurement of e-commerce flows and readiness
UNCTAD E-commerce Week
27 April 2017
© UPU 2017 – All rights reservedDr. José Ansón - International Bureau of the UPU
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Global benchmarks have become the normAnd the UPU’s Integrated Index for Postal Development (2IPD) is one of them
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The 2IPD draws on a wide range of dataTo provide an accurate picture of postal development in every nation
Integrated index for postal development (2IPD)Composite index score for 170 countries
Reliability
Quality of service performance, incl.
predictability, across all categories of postal delivery
services, with a focus on the domestic and inbound components of the postal delivery
process and operations
Reach
Global postal connectedness
performance, at the international level,
across all categories of international postal
delivery services
Relevance
Intensity of demand for the full portfolio of
postal services in each postal segment,
incl. mail, logistics and financial services
Resilience
Capacity to innovate, deliver inclusive
postal services and integrate sustainable development targets
in postal business models
Measures the level of postal operational
efficiency
Measures the level of internationalization of postal services
Measures the level of competitiveness in all main markets
Measures the level of adaptability of
business models
Data sources
Key UPU surveys*
Official UPU postal statistics
database
UPU postal big data (over 3
billion records in 2016)
*e.g. panorama on postal financial inclusion
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The 2016 results of the 2IPDIndicate significant disparities between regions
Global Average38.6
Top 31. Switzerland (100)2. France (94.75)3. Japan (94.09)
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Regional champions in this rankingAre those who have embraced diversified strategies
Switzerland (1st – score of 100)
France (2nd – score of 94.75)
Japan (3rd – score of 94.09)
Industrialized countries
• Diversified and globalized activities.• Extremely reliable quality of service• Focus on developing sustainable business models.
Best performers Reasons for superior performance
Poland (7th worldwide - score of 84.94)
Europe & CIS• Globally connected postal services and strong
demand for the portfolio of products and services in the area of e-commerce and logistics
Singapore(8th worldwide – score of 83.77)
Asia Pacific• Superior quality of service and a wide range of
postal delivery services
UAE(51st worldwide – score of 50.58)
Arab region • Better quality of service
Mauritius(33th worldwide – score of 60.10)
Africa • Better quality of service
Brazil(46th worldwide – score of 55.0)
Latin America• Better global postal connectedness and much
stronger demand for its diversified portfolio of services compared with other Posts in the region
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The 2IPD is useful to all key postal-sector stakeholdersIncluding governments, regulators and postal operators
Governments
Can draw on the results to develop strategies to enhance
the contribution of postal services to the economic and social infrastructure of their
countries
Regulators
Can better identify the development challenges that postal services are facing and
benefit from meaningful international comparisons
Postal operators
Can benchmark their relative operational and business
model strengths and weaknesses across different
levels of economic development and
geographies, so as to improve their performance
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The 2016 results will be available onlineDon’t hesitate to share it with your ministries, regulators and operators
Is now available on the UPU website
Will serve as guidance for a wide range of activities
Will be a key a tool to support the vision of the Istanbul World Postal
Strategy, i.e.
“The postal sector is seen as an enabler of inclusive development
and an essential component of the global economy”
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Evolution of international postal tonnage
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2011 (from/to)Developed
countriesAfrica
Asia and
Oceania
Latin
America and
Caribbean
Transition
economiesWorld
Developed countries 46.3 2.4 12.1 7 2.8 70.6
Africa 0.7 0.2 0.1 0 0 1
Asia and Oceania 21.6 0.3 2.7 0.5 0.4 25.5
Latin America and
Caribbean 1.7 0 0.1 0.3 0 2.1
Transition economies 0.5 0 0 0 0.3 0.8
World 70.8 2.9 15 7.8 3.5 100
2016 (from/to)Developed
countriesAfrica
Asia and
Oceania
Latin
America and
Caribbean
Transition
economiesWorld
Developed countries 26.3 0.9 20.8 2.7 2.4 53.1
Africa 0.7 0.2 0.2 0 0 1.1
Asia and Oceania 33.2 0.4 4.2 1.4 4.0 43.2
Latin America and
Caribbean 1.0 0 0.1 0.2 0 1.3
Transition economies 0.7 0 0.1 0 0.5 1.3
World 61.9 1.5 25.4 4.3 6.9 100
International deliveries (tonnage) of small packets, parcels and packages, 2011 and 2016,
distribution of regional flows as a share of global flows, percent
Source: Universal Postal Union.
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• Air E-commerce share of MTKs grew from 16% to 74%
between 2010 and 2015 and is estimated to grow to 98% by
2025
• Air 10 years CAGR from 2015 to 2025 is estimated to be 9.8%
* Air E-Commerce is estimated assuming postals with a distance of above 1000 kilometres are delivered by air
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f To
tal M
TK
Mail Tonnes Kilometres (MTK) breakdown
Air E-Commerce* OTHER
16%
74%
98%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ite
ms (m
illions)
Air E-Commerce Items Count
• Air E-commerce Items count is estimated to reach over
950 millions by 2025
11* Activity is measured in terms of Items count
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Africa
Middle East
Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America
Europe
Asia/Pacific
Item Count (millions)
Regional B2C Air E-Commerce Activity* 2015
Outbound Items Inbound Items
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Europe > Asia/Pacific
Europe > Europe
Asia/Pacific > Asia/Pacific
Asia/Pacific > Europe
Asia/Pacific > Northern America
Item Count (millions)
Top 5 Region Pairs by Activity 2015
• Top 5 regions pairs account for 82% of total air E-
Commerce items carried in 2015
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0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225
Thailand
Sweden
Poland
Netherlands
India
Italy
Republic of Korea
Spain
Hong Kong,SAR,China
Brazil
Germany
Singapore
Canada
France
Australia
United Kingdom
Japan
Russian Federation
United States of America
China
Items Count (millions)
Top 20 Countries by B2C Air E-Commerce Activity 2015
Outbound Items Inbound Items
• Top 20 countries account for 86% of total air E-Commerce items carried in 2015
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Global B2C Air
E-commerce Flow
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Postal big data collaborative
measurement roadmap:
From tonnage to items to HS to value
© UPU 2010 – All rights reserved
Thank you
© UPU 2017 – All rights reservedInternational Bureau
