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7/27/2019 Towards Sustainable Energy in the Power Sector Edit
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wfYdal wNh.=KjOk
Asoka Abeygunawardana
;sridr n,Yla; wkd.;hla WfoidTowards sustainable energy in the
power sector ..
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-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Demand GWh
Electricity Demand Forecast,s b,af wfmalIs; jOkh
100% ,sh
7% jdIsl jOkh
m%jdyk lafIa;%h ,s lrKh
Transport sector electrification
(GWh/y)
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Energy(GW
h)
CEB Genartion Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032
Oil
Coal
NCRE
New Major Hydro
Existing Major Hydro
,xu ckk ie,eiau jdIsl ^2013-32& jdIsl ,s ckkh
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Existing
Major
Hydro
28%
New
Major
Hydro
0%
NCRE
6%
Coal
34%
Oil
32%
Energy Mix - 2015Existing
Major
Hydro
22%
New
Major
Hydro
2%
NCRE
8%
Coal
62%
Oil
6%Energy Mix - 2020
Existing
Major
Hydro
12%
New Major
Hydro
2%
NCRE
6%
Coal
79%
Oil
1%
Energy Mix - 2032
,s ckkfham Nj ixhq;sh
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m Yak 2 la2 Issuses '''@
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* Oil - Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs(Assuming no reserves increase) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
Oil*
(billion
barrels)
Gas
(trillion
cubic m)
Coal
(billion T)
Total Reserves in 2008 1260 185 826Consumption in 2008 30 3.96 6.78
Reserves availability at 2008 rate
(years)
42 60 122
Production growth rate during1990-2008 period
1.4% 3.1% 2.4%
Reserves availability at the
increasing rate (years)
30 years 2042
30 years
55 years
47 years
Future of Fossil fuels - fmdis, bkaOk j, wkd.;h
Issue 1- Scarcity of resourcesm Yakh 1 - im;a ysh
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CO2concentrationIn creased by 44%
Global average temperature0.850 C
Sea level rise10 cm
Issue 2- Global Warmingm Yakh 2- ys;,h WKqiq we;swhqre
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ldnka msglsu ms
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Carbon Emissions - Trend in Sri Lanka
Y%S ,xldf ldnka fudapkh
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500 BAU - CO2 % Increase
BAU - CO2 % Increase
250%
jeula
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
re,shk
jir
bkaOk wdkhk yd idm%odhsl wmkhk
f;a" rn" fmd,awmkhk
bkaOk wdkhk
Fossil Fuel Imports Vs Earnings from traditional Tea, Rubber
and Coconut exports
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Solutionsi 3
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Think Globally and Act Locallyf.da,Shj is;kk - foYShj lghq; lrkak1. Renewable Energy
mkckkh n,Yla;sh2. Energy Efficiency & Conservation
n,Yla;s ldhlIu;dj yd wrmrsueiu3. Sustainable Life Styles
iliqrej jk rgdj
Solutions i
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14
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Annual energy generation from FiT Projects (GWh)
2020wNsfhda.h- Challenge !
?
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m Yak 3 la3 Issuses '''@
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Issue 1 - RE Potentialm Yakh 1 - mqk ckkSh n,Yla;s NjhTechnology Current
(MW)
Conservative
Potential (MW)
Theoretical Potential
(MW)
Hydro Power (@ 40% pf) 1400 1960
Dendro Power (@ 70% pf) 11 900 3,000 (BEASL estimate)
Wind Power (@ 30% pf) 90 3000 20,000+24,000 (NRELestimate)
Solar Power (@ 16% pf ) 1 (10,000 ha)
Out of 6.5 mil
4.5 to 6.0 kWh/m2/day
Wave Power (@ 65% pf) 0 200 2000 (NARA estimate)
OTEC (80%) 0 200 Trincomalee Canyon: one
of the worlds best places
Geothermal 0 30 (GSMB estimate)
Total 1502 6290
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-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Mini hydro
Wind
Biomass dendro
Coal
Scacity
Coal with tax
Coal with loss
Biomass dendro
with CERs
Escalation due to inflation : fuel - 5.09%; O&M -7.64%
Escalation due to scarcity of coal resources: 3%
R
s/kWh
Year
Issue 2- True cost of Energym Yakh 2 - mqkckkh n,Yla;sfha ienE hou
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Issue 3- Storage .nvd lsrSu
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Pumping from Lower Reservoir with renewables, and save at
Upper Reservoir.
Upper Reservoir
Penstock
Power Plant
Switch Yard
Tunnel
Surge Tank
Intake
GeneratorLower Reservoir
Pumping
Pumped Water Storage Power Plant
Pumping
Myth 3- Storage .nvd lsrSu
P d W S P Pl
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Upper Reservoir
Penstock
Power Plant
Switch Yard
Tunnel
Surge Tank
Intake
Generator
Generation
Lower Reservoir
Generation
Energy Efficiency : 84.23%
Pumped Water Storage Power Plant
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Samanalawewa (Keriketi Oya) 1000 MW
Maussakele (Adam's Peak Falls) 500 MW
Randenigala (Halgran Oya) 500 MW
Kotmale (Maha Oya, Gurugal Oya, Kuda Oya) 900 MW
Upper Kotmale (Dambagastalawa, Agra Oya) 600 MW
Total 3500 MW
500 MW plant: capital - 360 to 500 million USD
- 7301000 USD/kWstudies are currently under way.
Potential sites
R d ti
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RecommendationskfoaYY%S ,xldjg ;srir n,Yla;s b,lal
Sustainable Energy Development Goalsrcfha b,lal - Government Targets1995
98% mqkckkSh n,Yla;s ^c, ,sh& (RE)
2010 - 40% mqkckkSh n,Yla;s ^c, ,sh& (RE)
2016 - 60% demand increase
2016 - 38% mqkckkSh n,Yla;s ^c, ,sh + fiiq- 10%) (RE)
2020 100% demand increase
b,a u l
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Y%S ,xldf ldnkafudapkh
Targeted Emissions ReductionSri Lanka
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
BAU - CO2 % IncreaseIntended Plan
250%
jeula
800%
jeula
500%
jeula
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Set the policy guidelines for financial
sustainability of the CEBMOPE
Set the policy framework for NCRE tariff MERE
Submit tariff proposal for the NCRE
avoided costCEB
Submit the NCRE cost based tariffproposal to PUCSL for achieving the
government announced NCRE target of
20% by 2020
SLSEA
Review the proposals and declare theNCRE avoided cost tariff to be paid by
the CEB and NCRE cost based tariff that
will be offered to the NERE developers
PUCSL
FIT Solution
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wjYH jk m;sm;a; rduqjPolicy Framework
fmdi, bkOk iykdOdr bj;a luRemove Fossil Fuel Subsidies
mkckkh n,Yla;sh i|yd.ld,Sk iyk KhLong term lending scheme for RE
ldnk wdodh ,nd.ekuAccess Carbon credits
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wjYH jk m;sm;a; rduqjPolicy Framework
fjk;a lfI; j, m;s,dNhk n,Yla;slafI; hg ,euAssist power sector to get indirect economic
benefits from other sectors mkckkh n,Yla;sh ms