Trade of All Meats to Expand in 2016€¦ · Although the EU lost a significant market when banned...

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

April 2016

Trade of All Meats to Expand in 2016

Beef and Veal1:

Global production is forecast at 59.0 million tons, up modestly from the previous year. Herd

expansion in the United States, India, and Brazil will offset lower production in Australia,

Argentina, and Russia. Brazilian production is expected to rebound strongly as a weaker real

and market access improvements fuel exports. However, economic instability and weak

domestic demand remain risk factors. Australian production is forecast to decline for a

second year as producers rebuild herds after an extended liquidation period.

Exports by major traders are forecast 1 percent higher to 9.6 million tons as growth to Asia

offsets soft demand in other regions. Shipments from India and Brazil are expected to

rebound, with India overtaking Australia as the top exporter. China is expected to become

the second largest beef importer after the United States due to steady growth in consumption

and new market access for Brazil and Argentina. Despite higher demand from Asia,

shipments to the Middle East and North Africa will remain constrained as low oil prices

continue to pressure economic growth. \

U.S. production is forecast up almost 5 percent on larger cattle supplies and higher carcass

weights. Exports are expected to grow 8 percent as production expansion and declining

wholesale beef prices spur demand. Lower Australian supplies will enable the United States

to regain some market share in Asian markets. However, exports will remain below the 5-

year average as the strong dollar continues to hamper shipments, especially to Canada and

Mexico.

Pork:

Global production is forecast down 1 percent to 109.3 million tons as declines in China and

the EU more than offset gains by the United States, Brazil, and Russia. Chinese production

will continue to contract due to the slowing economy and continuing repercussions of

environmental regulations. EU production will decline as low prices spur herd contraction.

Increased exports driven by a weak currency and improved market access will raise Brazilian

production. Russian production will continue moderate expansion but at a slower pace due

to the struggling economy and competition from lower global pork prices.

1 Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, Indian estimates include carabeef (water buffalo).

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Global Beef Exports Gain in 2016

Production Exports

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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China Overtakes Japan as Second

Largest Beef Importer after U.S.

China Japan

Exports by major traders are forecast 6 percent higher to a record 7.6 million tons. An

increase in exportable EU and U.S. supplies will put downward pressure on global prices and

stimulate demand. Shipments to Asia, in particular, are expected to flourish.

U.S. production is forecast up 2 percent to a record 11.3 million tons on continued moderate

industry growth. Exports are forecast over 5 percent higher to 2.4 million tons as

competitive prices will bolster shipments to most markets, particularly China and Mexico.

Broiler Meat:

Global production is forecast to increase 1 percent to a record 89.7 million tons on expansion

by most major traders. Brazil is expected to continue expanding on higher exports. Reduced

supplies of imported breeding stock, driven by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-

related trade restrictions, will put downward pressure on production in China. Russian

production will continue expanding but at a slower pace due to a struggling economy and

rising production costs.

Exports by major traders are forecast to rebound 5 percent to a record 10.8 million tons.

Shipments will increase by the top two suppliers, Brazil and the United States, which account

for two-thirds of world trade. Exports will be driven by increased market access, partial

removal of trade restrictions on U.S. poultry from the 2015 HPAI outbreak, robust Chinese

demand, and a continued weak Brazilian real.

U.S. production is forecast to increase 3 percent to a record 18.4 million tons on heavier

weights and increased bird numbers. Exports are expected to recover 7 percent to 3.1 million

tons as a number of countries have lifted HPAI-related restrictions.

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Global Pork Exports Gain in 2016

Production Exports

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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European Union Increases Lead over

U.S. as Top Pork Exporter

European Union United States

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Global Broiler Meat Exports Gain in 2016

Production Exports

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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U.S. Broiler Meat Exports Recover

Production Exports

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2016Office of Global Analysis

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

April 2016

Contents

Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork and Broiler Meat

SPECIAL ARTICLES:

Surging EU Pork Exports to Asia to Disrupt U.S. Shipments

U.S. and Brazilian Broiler Meat Exports Higher in 2016

Despite Trade Restrictions and Currency Constraints

Mexican Turkey Meat Consumption Driven by Trade with U.S.

TABLES:

Beef

Beef Summary Tables

Cattle Summary Tables

Pork

Pork Summary Tables

Swine Summary Tables

Poultry Meat

Broiler Meat Summary Tables

NOTES TO READERS


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (p) 2016 (f)

Percent

Change

2015 to

2016

Beef and Veal 58,185 58,537 59,482 59,730 58,389 59,001 1.0%

Pork 103,581 106,868 108,823 110,559 110,321 109,306 -0.9%

Broiler Meat 81,313 83,534 84,588 86,700 88,712 89,655 1.1%

Total 243,079 248,939 252,893 256,989 257,422 257,962 0.2%

Beef and Veal 56,538 57,057 57,839 57,681 56,450 57,078 1.1%

Pork 103,181 106,381 108,402 109,966 109,845 108,908 -0.9%

Broiler Meat 79,985 81,892 83,057 85,140 86,970 87,697 0.8%

Total 239,704 245,330 249,298 252,787 253,265 253,683 0.2%

Beef and Veal 6,447 6,680 7,468 7,904 7,583 7,676 1.2%

Pork 6,558 6,858 6,588 6,322 6,685 7,211 7.9%

Broiler Meat 8,227 8,541 8,684 8,940 8,668 8,734 0.8%

Total 21,232 22,079 22,740 23,166 22,936 23,621 3.0%

Beef and Veal 8,072 8,139 9,126 9,994 9,554 9,633 0.8%

Pork 6,954 7,267 7,026 6,875 7,208 7,618 5.7%

Broiler Meat 9,576 10,088 10,274 10,480 10,273 10,755 4.7%

Total 24,602 25,494 26,426 27,349 27,035 28,006 3.6%

Beef and Veal 1,263 1,112 1,174 1,167 1,028 1,114 8.4%

Pork 2,357 2,440 2,262 2,203 2,241 2,359 5.3%

Broiler Meat 3,165 3,299 3,332 3,312 2,866 3,057 6.7%

Total 6,785 6,851 6,768 6,682 6,135 6,530 6.4%

Beef and Veal 16% 14% 13% 12% 11% 12%

Pork 34% 34% 32% 32% 31% 31%

Broiler Meat 33% 33% 32% 32% 28% 28%

Combined 28% 27% 26% 24% 23% 23%

Summary:

Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Broiler Meat

Production

Consumption

Notes: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not

encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which

represent the most important markets in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of

countries reported changes periodically.

U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders

Imports

Exports

U.S. Exports

Beef and Veal, Pork: 1,000 Tons Carcass Weight Equivalent / Broiler Meat: 1,000 Tons Ready to Cook Equivalent


Surging EU Pork Exports to Asia Disrupt U.S. Shipments

The United States and the EU are leading pork exporters which combined account for nearly

two-thirds of world pork trade. In 2015, the EU surpassed the United States as the world’s

leading exporter and is forecast to retain this position in 2016.

EU: World Leader Despite Setback in Russian Market

EU’s rise has not come without challenges. In 2013, Russia was the EU’s largest market,

accounting for over 20 percent of its total exports. However, Russia imposed import restrictions

on the EU in late January 2014 due to outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), shutting it out of

the market. In addition to the disease-based restriction, EU pork was also included in the August

2014 Russian ban on certain agricultural products from the United States, Canada, Australia, EU,

and Norway.

Although the EU lost a significant market when banned by Russia, considerable market share has

since developed in Asian markets. To offset the loss of Russia, the EU shipped more to Japan

during the first half of 2014. In the second half of 2014, gains were made in shipments to both

South Korea and China. During the following year (2015), EU pork exports to China increased

nearly 82 percent. While Japan, Korea, and China accounted for nearly 38 percent of total EU

pork shipments in 2013, these markets rose to nearly 56 percent in 2015.

Following Russian Ban, EU Pork Exports Increased to Key Asian Markets

EU Gains Help Depress U.S. Shipments to Key Asian Markets

EU pork exports to all destinations increased 7 percent from 2013 to 2015 while total U.S.

shipments only increased 1 percent. The United States was constrained by the loss of the

Russian market, tight supplies due to porcine epidemic diahrea virus (PEDv), elevated prices,

and a strong dollar. Its competitiveness vis-à-vis the EU was significantly reduced. In addition,

the EU’s ban on producing pork with beta-agonists allows them greater flexibility in meeting the

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1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

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China Japan South KoreaSource: Eurostat

Exports to China

Rise Sharply

Second Russian

Import Ban

First Russian

Import Ban


demands of Asian markets. U.S. pork exports to Japan, Korea, and China declined 5 percent

during the 2013 to 2015 period and also accounted for a smaller portion (falling from 40 to 36

percent) of total U.S. shipments. Thus EU expanded not only shipments to key Asian markets in

terms of volumes but also market share.

EU Forecast to Gain Further Ground on Pork Exports to Asia in 2016

Combined pork imports for China, Japan and South Korea are forecast up 11 percent for 2016.

Both South Korea and Japan imports are forecast slightly higher (2 and 4 percent, respectively)

while Chinese imports are forecast 26 percent higher. Stronger demand by these key markets

will facilitate the EU remaining the top global pork exporter in 2016. The United States will

continue to be challenged to compete with the EU due to a strong dollar and relatively higher

prices. Export expansion is forecast for both the EU and the United States in 2016, however the

EU’s rise is slightly stronger at 9 percent compared to the United States at 5 percent.

Asia an Increasingly Important Market for the EU

For more information contact | Tyler Cozzens | [email protected], (202) 690-2993,

USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Global Commodity Analysis Division

29%

18%

18%

27%

31%

20% 22%

44%

49%

40%

2600

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

2016

2015

2014

2013

1,000 MT CWE

China Japan, and South Korea Russia Rest of World 2016 Forecast

2388

2164

2227

Source: Eurostat


mailto:[email protected]

U.S. and Brazilian Broiler Meat Exports Higher in 2016

Despite Trade Restrictions and Currency Constraints

In 2015, total broiler meat exports by major traders declined for the first time since 2006. There

was also a major shift in the correlation between Brazil and the United States, which together

account for about two-thirds of global trade. For the past 10 years, the difference between U.S.

and Brazilian exports has been relatively consistent and shipments generally trended in the same

direction. However, Brazilian exports increased 283,000 MT in 2015 while U.S. exports

declined 445,000 MT.

Negative Factors for the United States Benefited Brazil in 2015

The principle factors that negatively impacted U.S. shipments in 2015 included the ongoing

Russian ban on imports of certain agricultural products from the United States, Canada,

Australia, EU, and Norway, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related trade restrictions,

the strong U.S. dollar, and foreign exchange shortages in a number of countries. While some of

these factors led to the decline of shipments to certain markets for both exporters, others helped

Brazilian exports grow significantly compared to the United States. In addition, Brazil benefited

from robust Middle East demand.

U.S. Shipments Declined to Russia

Due to Russia’s ban in August 2014, U.S. exports to

Russia fell by 138,000 MT, the largest single market

decline for U.S. shipments in 2015. When U.S.

shipments to Russia declined during 2008-2011, due in

part to increased Russian production and lower quotas,

U.S. product that would have gone to Russia was

absorbed by other markets. However, in 2015, the

agricultural ban and other factors placing constraints

on U.S. exports made it more difficult to displace

shipments intended for the Russian market. Due to a

weak ruble, increased Russian production, and

competitively priced domestic products, imports from

Brazil also declined by 34,000 MT in 2015. However,

Russia was not as large a market, accounting for less

than 5 percent of total Brazilian shipments.

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (F)

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Broiler Meat Exports Diverge

Brazil United States

Source: USDA/FAS/PSD

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Russia's Share of U.S. Broiler Meat

Exports Decline

Russia Rest of World

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Factors U.S. Brazil

Russian Market - -

Strong U.S. Dollar - +Imposed HPAI-Related Restrictions

on U.S. Poultry- +

Foreign Exchange Shortages

(Angola/Venezuela)- -

Robust Demand: Middle East - +

2015 Positive and Negative Market Impacts


HPAI-Related Trade Restrictions Impeded U.S. Shipments

The United States shrank while Brazil grew in several markets that placed HPAI-related trade

restrictions on U.S. products in 2015. The December 2014 outbreak of HPAI prompted a

number of trading partners to place regional (zone, county, or state) or U.S.-wide restrictions on

poultry products. China and South Korea were the two largest importers that placed U.S.-wide

restrictions on the United States. While U.S. exports fell to virtually zero to these markets,

Brazilian exports increased significantly, growing over 100,000 MT to both markets combined.

A Strong Dollar Hindered U.S. Exports

An excess of exportable supplies caused

by trade restrictions weakened U.S. prices

in 2015. However, these lower prices were

largely offset by a stronger dollar. A

weakened real also reduced

competitiveness of the United States

versus Brazil.

Low Oil Prices Impacted Demand by Several Major Importers

Depressed oil prices in 2015 resulted in lower revenues and foreign exchange shortages for a

number of key importers. Hence, shipments fell significantly to Venezuela and Angola where oil

revenues are a substantial part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the cost to produce oil

is high compared to other major broiler meat importers. With these countries facing liquidity

issues, their imports from Brazil and the United States declined significantly in 2015. Angola

was the second largest U.S. market in 2014 but exports declined by 92,000 MT in 2015.

Similarly, Venezuela was the fourth-largest market for Brazil and shipments fell 71,000 MT

from 2014.

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US

The Dollar Gets Stronger Against the Real

Source: USDA/ERS - Nominal monthly average exchange rates

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China: Broiler Meat Imports

United States Brazil Rest of World

Source: China Customs

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South Korea: Broiler Meat Imports

United States Brazil Rest of World

Source: Korea Customs and Trade Development Institution


Robust Middle East Demand Bolstered Brazilian Shipments

Brazilian exports grew over 200,000 MT to

the Middle East in 2015, offsetting losses in

Venezuela, Angola, and Russia. The largest

increase in shipments was to Saudi Arabia

followed by the United Arab Emirates.

Although oil revenue makes up a significant

share of GDP in these markets, the countries

have large foreign exchange reserves and

low oil production costs, which help to

lessen the impact of low oil prices. The

United States is less competitive in the

Middle East, in part due to fewer facilities

that are able to provide halal-certified

products.

2016: Export Growth Forecast for Brazil and the United States

Total exports by major suppliers are forecast to increase in 2016. For both Brazil and the United

States, exports will expand and recover by 6 and 7 percent, respectively. The two countries will

face challenges similar to those in 2015, but also will benefit from new opportunities in 2016

through increased market access.

Brazil:

Export growth in 2016 will continue to be driven by the weak Brazilian real, ongoing HPAI-

related trade restrictions on competitors, and expanded access to a number of smaller markets.

However, slower growth is expected in traditional export markets.

Shipments are expected to increase to China, which still has HPAI-related restrictions on U.S.

poultry products. Exports will also grow to a number of markets that were recently opened, such

as Pakistan, or where Brazil has expanded access through the approval of additional poultry

plants, such as Malaysia and Mexico.

Exports to Saudi Arabia and Japan – Brazil’s top markets – will slow as both countries face

excess supplies on record 2015 imports. Exports to Russia will decline further on a weak ruble

and higher domestic production at competitive prices.

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Brazilian Exports to the Middle East Grow

Rest of World Middle East

Source: SECEX – Foreign Trade Secretariat

Impact U.S. Brazil

Russian Market - -

Strong U.S. Dollar - +Partial Removal of HPAI-Related

Restrictions on U.S. Poultry+ -

Robust Demand: China - +

2016 Positive and Negative Market Impacts


United States:

Export growth in 2016 is expected in a number of markets that removed HPAI-related

restrictions as regions were declared disease-free. Several markets, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq,

which removed restrictions on regions (zones, counties, or states) are expected to grow. Exports

are also expected to increase to countries, such as South Africa, that had U.S.-wide restrictions

during 2015 and have since transitioned to regional restrictions. Additionally, the recent

agreement on a bone-in chicken quota between U.S. and South African governments will lead to

expanded exports.

The removal of restrictions and transition to regional restrictions from the end of 2015 and into

2016 offer better export opportunities provided there are no further outbreaks of HPAI in major

broiler-producing states. However, a stronger dollar in 2016 will likely continue to constrain

U.S. competitiveness. The United States will also face HPAI-related restrictions by China and

South Korea and the continuing Russian ban. Despite these trade restrictions and possible

continued currency constraints on oil-reliant importers, U.S. exports in 2016 are expected to

recover.

For more information contact | Joanna Hitchner | [email protected], (202) 720-0746,




Domestic Production Limited

Mexican turkey meat

production is limited, and

industry growth is challenged.

Not only is there intense

competition from imports, but

the consumption of domestic

product is highly seasonal. A

significant portion of domestic

production is sold during

holidays (Christmas and Easter)

and largely as uncooked whole

birds.

Mexican Turkey Meat Consumption Driven by Trade with U.S.

The United States and Mexico have a unique and nearly exclusive turkey meat trade relationship.

More than 90 percent of Mexican turkey meat consumption is product imported from the United

States. Similarly, U.S. turkey meat exports are dependent on Mexico which comprises almost

half of total U.S. shipments. Exports account for slightly more than 10 percent of U.S. turkey

meat production.

U.S. Turkey Meat Shipments to Mexico Driven

By Processing….

According to Mexico’s National Poultry

Association (UNA), almost 90 percent of imports

of U.S. turkey meat is further processed by

Mexican industry into sausage/hot dogs, ham/cold

cuts, and turkey legs. For example, more than 80

percent of hams produced are blended turkey-pork

hams. Processors have some flexibility in the

composition of blended meat products, so shifts in

relative prices may encourage processors to adjust

the meat ingredients.

…And Also Competing Pork Price

There is a clear correlation between the pork-to-turkey meat (imported for further processing)

price ratio and the quantity of imported turkey meat as shown in the following graph. As pork

becomes cheaper relative to turkey meat, Mexico imports less turkey meat from the United

States.1 Similarly, as pork becomes more expensive relative to turkey meat, Mexico imports

more turkey meat from the United States.

1 H.S. Code 02072699 (“Other”) comprises 65 percent of Mexican imports of U.S. turkey meat. H.S. Code 02031201 (Legs, Shoulders and Cuts, Without Bones) comprises 71 percent of Mexican imports of U.S. pork.

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Source: UNA, Mexico Import Statistics (INEGI)

U.S. Dominates Mexican Turkey Meat Supplies

Domestic Production Imports from the U.S. Imports from Chile

Turkey

Meat

Pork

Poultry

Broiler

Meat

Beef and

Veal

Source:

USDA/FAS

/PSD

Source: USDA/FAS/PSD

Mexican Turkey Meat Consumption:

Small and Relatively Stable (2014)


HPAI Shifts the Relationship

There is a slight deviation of the correlation in 2015 following the outbreak of highly pathogenic

avian influenza (HPAI) in the United States. As a result, Mexico began restricting imports of

poultry and poultry meat. Although some restrictions have since been lifted, 15 U.S. states are

still restricted. However, poultry meat intended for further processing that includes heat

treatment is exempt from these restrictions. This product accounts for the majority of U.S.

turkey exports to Mexico.

Nonetheless, several of the top turkey-

producing states were deeply impacted by the

HPAI outbreak, most notably, Minnesota.

According to USDA’s Animal and Plant

Health Inspection Service, 7.5 million

turkeys were depopulated, which would have

accounted for 3.2 percent of the previous

year (2014) slaughter and the effects were

compounded by a resulting production lag

due to cleaning and disinfecting, plus

placement. Due to these tightened supplies

in 2015, the price of turkey meat was at a

premium. In addition, pork prices were low,

signaling a price ratio favorable to pork.

The reduction of exportable supplies, combined with the price ratio, depressed shipments to

Mexico and heightened substitution with pork. Even as the price ratio slowly rebounded and the

United States turkey industry recovered, the production lag forced suppliers to focus on U.S.

domestic consumption, hence limiting choices for Mexican importers. At the end of 2015, the

pork-to-turkey meat price ratio and imports of U.S. turkey meat both remained low compared to

the 5-year trend.

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (Mexico)

Pork-to-Turkey Meat Price Ratio Propels U.S. -Mexico Trade

Volume of Imported Turkey (HS: 02072699) Pork-to-Turkey Meat Unit Price Ratio

Mexican Restrictions

on U.S.

exports due

to HPAI.

HPAI Confirmed Detections in 2014/15

Source: USDA/APHIS


Chile is a Minor Competitor in Mexico

Despite the downturn in U.S. turkey meat, market shares remain relatively unchanged. Mexico

imports small amounts of turkey meat from Chile, primarily turkey breast, which is priced and

consumed differently than turkey meat for further processing. Thus, Chilean and U.S. products

are not in direct competition. As U.S. turkey meat shipments declined in 2015, Chile’s import

share grew to 6 percent (from 2 percent in 2014). Mexico currently imports only from the

United States and Chile.

Outlook for 2016

In 2016, the impact of last year’s HPAI outbreaks will have residual impacts on turkey meat

shipments to Mexico. By the third and fourth quarters of 2016, production in the United States is

forecast above year-earlier, putting downward pressure on turkey meat prices. Thus, as supplies

rebound, the importance of the pork-to-turkey meat price ratio in driving shipments will increase.

A stronger decline in pork prices compared to turkey meat is forecast for 2016. Turkey meat will

remain relatively expensive, weakening Mexican demand for U.S. turkey meat.

For more information contact | Mary Rose Parrish | [email protected], (202) 720-4204,




Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Production

9,6209,6009,4259,7239,6759,307 Brazil

7,6807,5607,6707,4437,3887,708 European Union

6,7856,7856,7006,8906,7306,623 China

4,3004,5004,1004,1003,8003,491 India

2,6802,6802,7402,7002,8502,620 Argentina

2,1802,3002,5472,5952,3592,152 Australia

1,8651,8651,8501,8271,8071,821 Mexico

1,7751,7751,7251,6751,6301,587 Pakistan

1,3101,3001,3551,3701,3801,380 Russia

1,0659751,0501,0991,0491,060 Canada

8,4138,4678,4129,2329,0638,940 Others

47,67347,80747,57448,65447,73146,689 Total Foreign

11,32811,38910,81511,07611,75111,848 United States

59,00159,19658,38959,73059,48258,537 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

7,8207,8907,7817,8967,8857,845 Brazil

7,7207,6207,7307,5147,5207,760 European Union

7,5907,4507,3397,2777,1126,667 China

2,4502,4152,5542,5032,6642,458 Argentina

2,3502,3252,2942,0182,0352,080 India

1,9252,0251,9712,2892,3932,398 Russia

1,7801,7301,7971,8391,8731,836 Mexico

1,7061,7061,6611,6171,5761,538 Pakistan

1,1901,2151,1861,2251,2321,255 Japan

9208909429991,0231,019 Canada

10,07310,0699,92111,26210,91810,462 Others

45,52445,33545,17646,43946,23145,318 Total Foreign

11,55411,67111,27411,24211,60811,739 United States

57,07857,00656,45057,68157,83957,057 Total

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). From 2015, the following

countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. The notation of a

month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Total Imports

82570066341741286 China

725727707739760737 Japan

6257356259291,0231,027 Russia

455454414392375370 Korea, South

400500339646473241 Hong Kong

360370363372376348 European Union

300285360270195250 Egypt

270285280284295301 Canada

260230245241245187 Chile

250250235205194174 Malaysia

1,8911,7941,8232,0722,1001,952 Others

6,3616,3306,0546,5676,4485,673 Total Foreign

1,3151,3811,5291,3371,0201,007 United States

7,6767,7117,5837,9047,4686,680 Total

none

Total Exports

1,9502,1751,8062,0821,7651,411 India

1,8501,7751,7051,9091,8491,524 Brazil

1,5251,6251,8541,8511,5931,407 Australia

584598639579529517 New Zealand

415370391378332335 Canada

380410381389326251 Paraguay

380395373350340360 Uruguay

320310303301244296 European Union

250300228194166200 Mexico

230265186197186164 Argentina

635603660597622562 Others

8,5198,8268,5268,8277,9527,027 Total Foreign

1,1141,1001,0281,1671,1741,112 United States

9,6339,9269,5549,9949,1268,139 Total

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). From 2015, the

following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. The

notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

302,600301,600301,100300,600299,606300,000 India

219,180219,093213,035207,959203,273197,550 Brazil

100,275100,250100,450103,000103,434103,605 China

88,75088,60088,40687,61987,10687,054 European Union

51,99551,99551,54551,54551,09549,597 Argentina

27,68226,15029,10229,29128,41828,506 Australia

18,83818,66519,15219,56419,93020,134 Russia

16,60516,45017,12017,76018,52120,090 Mexico

11,96011,93011,92012,22012,30512,245 Canada

11,96012,06312,05311,90311,38411,232 Uruguay

31,58731,78632,26364,05266,10168,064 Others

881,432878,582876,146905,513901,173898,077 Total Foreign

91,98892,90089,14388,52690,09591,160 United States

973,420971,482965,289994,039991,268989,237 Total

none

Production (Calf Crop)

68,00068,00067,00066,00065,00063,500 India

49,05049,05049,00047,90048,80048,000 China

48,25048,25048,22049,60050,18549,690 Brazil

29,60029,25029,55029,28029,05029,800 European Union

14,00014,00013,70013,30014,00013,700 Argentina

9,2009,5009,66411,06310,7838,539 Australia

7,0006,9256,8506,7506,7006,800 Mexico

6,5196,4066,6356,6706,8206,920 Russia

5,0125,1505,0405,4404,9234,926 New Zealand

4,4104,3754,2624,6064,5164,462 Canada

10,17710,02010,23414,42914,91414,748 Others

251,218250,926250,155255,038255,691251,085 Total Foreign

34,70035,00034,30233,52233,73034,469 United States

285,918285,926284,457288,560289,421285,554 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year

conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Total Imports

30022012020010095 Egypt

15020012523098117 China

5580857497143 Russia

404036454856 Canada

252523283010 Mexico

889111214 Japan

3321000 Brazil

101112 Belarus

000000 Argentina

000000 Australia

001566715619 Others

5825764021,1651,1011,056 Total Foreign

1,7752,0501,9842,3582,0332,283 United States

2,3572,6262,3863,5233,1343,339 Total

none

Total Exports

1,1251,2001,2131,1761,0451,539 Mexico

1,1001,1001,3361,297851620 Australia

7509258321,2451,044821 Canada

750600700499504678 European Union

300300212649689512 Brazil

2151402171404178 Uruguay

55554527112 Ukraine

24202427149 Russia

202020201926 China

152521793342 New Zealand

11186236302 Others

4,3554,3864,6215,2454,4874,629 Total Foreign

758072108161191 United States

4,4304,4664,6935,3534,6484,820 Total

Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela and excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year

conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Pork Selected Countries Summary


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Production

53,50056,50054,87056,71054,93053,427 China

23,23022,90023,35022,54022,35922,526 European Union

3,6093,5103,5193,4003,3353,330 Brazil

2,6752,7802,6152,5102,4002,175 Russia

2,4752,4752,4502,4252,3492,307 Vietnam

1,9251,8801,8901,8051,8221,844 Canada

1,4001,3901,3701,3531,3401,310 Philippines

1,3851,3851,3231,2901,2841,239 Mexico

1,2801,2901,2541,2641,3091,297 Japan

1,2401,2301,2171,2001,2521,086 Korea, South

5,2535,3085,3425,6925,9185,773 Others

97,972100,64899,200100,18998,29896,314 Total Foreign

11,33411,31411,12110,37010,52510,554 United States

109,306111,962110,321110,559108,823106,868 Total

none


54,57057,14055,66857,19555,45653,922 China

20,64220,58220,97420,39020,14720,382 European Union

3,0202,9793,0163,0243,2673,239 Russia

2,9402,9312,8932,8452,7512,670 Brazil

2,5902,5402,5682,5432,5492,557 Japan

2,4372,4372,4122,3892,3152,275 Vietnam

2,3352,1952,1761,9911,9561,850 Mexico

1,8701,8571,8131,6601,6281,546 Korea, South

1,5841,6091,5441,5511,5111,446 Philippines

938928930875892906 Taiwan

6,4886,6196,4816,8527,2657,147 Others

99,414101,817100,475101,31599,73797,940 Total Foreign

9,4949,4099,3708,6518,6658,441 United States

108,908111,226109,845109,966108,402106,381 Total

Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,

North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a



Pork Selected Countries Summary


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Total Imports

1,3201,2501,2701,3321,2231,259 Japan

1,3008501,029761770730 China

1,100960981818783706 Mexico

610625599480388502 Korea, South

410400397347399414 Hong Kong

3552004085158681,077 Russia

240250220191183194 Australia

210210216214220240 Canada

185220175199172138 Philippines

125130107634032 Taiwan

8219177799451,1431,202 Others

6,6766,0126,1815,8656,1896,494 Total Foreign

535454504457399364 United States

7,2116,4666,6856,3226,5886,858 Total

none

Total Exports

2,6002,3302,3882,1642,2272,165 European Union

1,2501,2101,2361,2181,2461,243 Canada

670580627556585661 Brazil

230250231276244235 China

200200178163164180 Chile

15015012811711195 Mexico

404036373636 Australia

404040404036 Vietnam

2045192546 Serbia

2014171342 South Africa

39306763103168 Others

5,2594,8894,9674,6724,7644,827 Total Foreign

2,3592,3702,2412,2032,2622,440 United States

7,6187,2597,2086,8757,0267,267 Total

Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,

North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a



Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Total Beginning Stocks

451,130420,200465,830474,113475,922468,627 China

148,500147,500148,341146,172146,982149,809 European Union

39,42240,15039,39538,84438,57738,336 Brazil

21,26720,12519,40519,08118,81617,258 Russia

13,26013,30013,16512,94012,61012,625 Canada

10,18710,20010,0909,9129,9168,171 Korea, South

9,9179,6009,7009,7759,5109,276 Mexico

9,6009,5909,4409,5379,6859,735 Japan

7,2457,3007,4927,9227,5777,373 Ukraine

3,2002,6502,9243,2674,2433,989 Belarus

2,1642,3002,2712,0982,1382,285 Others

715,892682,915728,053733,661735,976727,484 Total Foreign

68,38968,02567,77664,77566,22466,259 United States

784,281750,940795,829798,436802,200793,743 Total

none

Production (Pig Crop)

680,000705,000696,600729,927720,971707,427 China

263,000263,000266,500261,750257,000257,600 European Union

41,00039,75039,76037,00036,00034,500 Russia

39,63539,63539,05038,47037,90037,700 Brazil

29,10028,00028,63027,07827,37628,347 Canada

19,20019,00018,00017,60017,80017,150 Mexico

17,99517,35017,60016,81216,95316,340 Korea, South

17,20017,20017,15017,05017,35017,250 Japan

8,9009,0009,2009,5279,4658,538 Ukraine

5,3005,2505,2004,8505,3255,775 Belarus

5,2504,8504,8504,9854,7374,581 Others

1,126,5801,148,0351,142,5401,165,0491,150,8771,135,208 Total Foreign

121,437122,975120,834114,856115,135116,655 United States

1,248,0171,271,0101,263,3741,279,9051,266,0121,251,863 Total

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Total Imports

255042141031 Mexico

24302222231225 Ukraine

838531 Belarus

556312 Canada

52472420 China

223112 European Union

2222211 Korea, South

212886340 Russia

101111 Japan

000000 Australia

000011 Others

74959063360634 Total Foreign

6,1005,0005,7414,9474,9485,656 United States

6,1745,0955,8315,0105,3086,290 Total

none

Total Exports

6,1005,0505,7734,9604,7845,676 Canada

1,5001,6001,6961,7501,6841,643 China

500600436568569741 European Union

223342 Brazil

101052103 Belarus

000000 Australia

000000 Japan

000000 Korea, South

000000 Mexico

002000 Russia

001101 Others

8,1037,2527,9127,2827,0938,166 Total Foreign


8,1357,3007,9537,3017,1278,222 Total

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.


Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Production

13,56513,48013,14612,69212,30812,645 Brazil

12,70013,10013,40013,00013,35013,700 China

10,76010,84510,62010,2809,9109,565 European Union

4,2004,2003,9003,7253,4503,160 India

3,7003,6503,5503,2603,0102,830 Russia

3,3003,1603,1963,0252,9072,958 Mexico

2,2002,1002,0802,0502,0602,014 Argentina

2,0501,9901,9001,8941,7581,723 Turkey

1,7201,6501,6901,5701,5001,550 Thailand

1,6401,6401,6251,5651,5501,540 Indonesia

15,37715,15615,63416,33315,80915,228 Others

71,21270,97170,74169,39467,61266,913 Total Foreign

18,44318,36517,97117,30616,97616,621 United States

89,65589,33688,71286,70084,58883,534 Total

none


12,68512,98513,26712,83013,17413,543 China

10,30510,37510,1719,8599,4989,198 European Union

9,4779,6049,3099,1378,8299,139 Brazil

4,1934,1933,8923,7163,4453,156 India

4,0953,9223,9813,7383,5823,568 Mexico

3,7753,7353,7283,6753,4973,356 Russia

2,2982,2502,2982,2262,2092,214 Japan

1,9761,8761,8941,7731,7291,723 Argentina

1,7201,6651,6601,5721,5561,582 South Africa

1,7101,6301,5791,5151,4211,439 Turkey

19,94519,90820,09621,05820,42619,628 Others

72,17972,14371,87571,09969,36668,546 Total Foreign

15,51815,23315,09514,04113,69113,346 United States

87,69787,37686,97085,14083,05781,892 Total

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and

Moldova. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for

that year was released.


Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oct

2016

Apr

none

Total Imports

910875936888854877 Japan

900850930775838750 Saudi Arabia

800770790722682616 Mexico

725720728712671727 European Union

670710640730673610 Iraq

470440436369355371 South Africa

360260268260244254 China

320220262192217223 United Arab Emirates

305380312299272300 Hong Kong

250235224186182196 Cuba

2,9683,1803,0833,7543,6413,566 Others

8,6788,6408,6098,8878,6298,490 Total Foreign


8,7348,6938,6688,9408,6848,541 Total

none

Total Exports

4,0903,8803,8413,5583,4823,508 Brazil

1,1801,1901,1771,1331,0831,094 European Union

630570622546504538 Thailand

375375401430420411 China

340360321379337284 Turkey

225225187278334295 Argentina

16519015916714175 Ukraine

150140133137150141 Canada

10510099878893 Chile

100100135113105105 Belarus

338337332340298245 Others

7,6987,4677,4077,1686,9426,789 Total Foreign

3,0573,2212,8663,3123,3323,299 United States

10,75510,68810,27310,48010,27410,088 Total

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and

Moldova. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for

that year was released.


Notes to Readers

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of

the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and broiler meat trade.

PSDs Excluded Beginning in Year 2015:

Cattle: Colombia and Venezuela.

Beef: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d’Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal, and Uzbekistan.

Pork: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North

Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Broiler Meat: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica, and Moldova.

PSDs Excluded Beginning in Year 2016:

Pork: Venezuela.

Broiler Meat: Venezuela.

Data Modifications in PSDs for Year Prior to 2014:

Cattle/Beef:

The cattle PSD for the following country is revised for the 2012-2013 period on additional

and/or revised official production data available: Australia.

The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2006-

2013 period on additional and/or revised official production and/or stocks data available:

Angola, China, Honduras, Nicaragua, Oman, and Ukraine.

The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2006-

2013 period on additional and/or revised official trade data available: China, Costa Rica, El

Salvador, European Union, Gabon, Israel, Malaysia, South Africa, and Venezuela.

Swine/Pork:

The swine PSDs for the following countries are revised for 2013 on additional and/or revised

official production and/or stocks data available: Australia, Brazil, China, European Union,

Japan, and Ukraine.

The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 1999-

2013 period due to additional and/or revised official production and/or stocks data:

Australia, China, European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Ukraine.

The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2011-

2013 period due to additional and/or revised official trade data: Angola, Bahamas, Bosnia

and Herzegovina, Brazil, China, European Union, Kazakhstan, Montenegro, Philippines,

Serbia, South Africa, and Ukraine.

Broiler Meat:

The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the

2006-2013 period on additional and/or revised official production and/or stocks data

available: Philippines and Turkey.

The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the

2008-2013 period on additional and/or revised official trade data available: Gabon and

Russia.

Assumptions

Diseases: Forecast reflects disease (avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalopathy,

etc.) policies and restrictions in place as of April 12, 2016 and assumes their continuation.


Conversion Rates

Beef &Veal Pork

Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30

HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201

Frozen: 0202

Processed: 021020 & 160250

Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319

Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329

Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249

Broiler Meat Turkey Meat

Conversion Rate 1 1

HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13

Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14

Processed: 1602.32

Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35

Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36

Processed: 1602.31 Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded . Also, beef and veal estimates include meat of

other bovines for certain countries. In particular, Indian estimates include carabeef (water buffalo).

Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE)

unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal

after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of

the meat product exported.

RTC (Ready-to-Cook): The weight of poultry certified wholesome by inspection after post-

mortem condemnation pounds are removed. Ready-to-cook represents poultry meat ready for

the marketing channel.

FAS Reports from Overseas Offices

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted

since January 2016 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can

be obtained on FAS Online at: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx.

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources

Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at:

http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meats for additional data and analysis.

Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the

USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-

dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/.

Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view

archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in October 2016.

To receive the circular via email, go to:

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new.

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Lindsay Kuberka (202) 644-4650 [email protected] Cattle and Beef

Tyler Cozzens (202) 690-2993 [email protected] Swine and Pork

Joanna Hitchner (202) 720-0746 [email protected] Poultry Meat

Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Cross-Commodity Analyst


http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline

http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meats

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/

http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade

https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new





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