INFORSE-Europe Sustainable Energy Seminar August 21-24, 2017
Nordic Folkecenter for Renewable Energy, Denmark
Transition Towards Sustainable Energy – Serbia by Nikola Perusic; August 21, 2017
CEKOR
See the Program and the Proceedings at: http://www.inforse.org/europe/seminar_17_DK.htm
a)Dr Ilija Batas Bjelić, naučni saradnik, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Elektrotehnicki fakultet, Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73, 11120 Beograd, 011 3370 165, [email protected]
b) Kalmar Zvezdan, cordinator for energy CEKOR Subotica
1. Intro
2. Overview of scenarios
3. Results• a. (BASE)• b. (OPTIMAL)• c. (CO2CAP)• d. (PRICEINC)• e. (MINRES)• f. (MINEE)
4. Literature
� Subotica is the most northern city of the Republic of Serbia� Geographic position is determined with 46º 5' 5'' N and 19º 39' 47'' E.
It borders with Hungary and with 4 local self-governments: Sombor, Bačka Topola, Senta and Kanjiža.
� Census 2011, the total population on the territory of the � City of Subotica is 140,358 citizens living in 19 settlements organized in
37 local communities� Pollution:City of Subotica has one of most polluted atmosphere in whole
Serbia especially in the winter due to individual heating and traffic� Our goal was to develope number of scenarios for development of
sustainable energy future of Subotica with aim to reduce energy poverty in City, pollution comming from heating and also to diversify sources of energy with reduction of overall price and emissions from energz sector in City
� we have based our work on the available energy ballance of city of Subotica including public consumption, supply with the heat from district heating plant in Subotica
� We have used HOMER model for simulation of the future production and also prices and emissions in different scenarios.
� We have used most recent prices for the investment costs of our scenarios� Subotica is exposed to serious demographically problems, emigration of
population and high levels of poverty� Most of houses are constructed before 1980ties thus rather inefficient� Subotica lacks detailed census of it s energy consumption � Subotica lacks detailed estimation of its Renevable Energy Sources potentials
BASE sc.
BASE sc.
OPTIMALOPTIMAL
CO2CAPCO2CAP
MINRESMINRESPRICEINCPRICEINC
MINSEEMINSEE
� BAZNI – present day status of energy sistem.
� OPTIMAL Least cost scenario.
� CO2CAP – Cap (maximal allowed) on annually GHG emissions.
� PRICEINC – prices from nacional electricity grid increased.
� MINRES decision about the level of Renevable energy sources (RES) in energy mix
� MINEE Decision about the minimal energz savings (EE) of primary energy(gas, wood, bio mas, coal)
� LCOE 0.045 c€/kWh (price of el)� 1,622,000 kWhel/dan (consumpt/day)� 592,029,696 kWhel/god (electricity
consumpt/year)� 77,014,800 kWhth/god (heat consumption per
year) � 30,501,630 M€/god (yearly spent for energy)� 551,513,088 tCO2/god (CO2 equivalent
emitted annually)
Grid Boiler0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
An
nu
aliz
ed C
ost
($/
yr)
Cash Flow SummaryCapitalReplacementOperatingFuelSalvage
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30-35,000,000
-30,000,000
-25,000,000
-20,000,000
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
No
min
al C
ash
Flo
w (
$)
Cash Flows
Year Number
GridBoiler
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Po
wer
(k
W)
Monthly Average Electric ProductionGrid
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Th
erm
al
(kW
)
Monthly Average Thermal ProductionBoiler
� We see cost of annually spent electricity from national grid andalso of heating from GAS boiler in district heating in Subotica
� We also see monthlz consumption of electricity and of the heat from city heating boilers
� Also we see how much subotica spends on fuel and buying from national network
� LCOE 0.043 c€/kWh (price stays same)
� 470,192,320 tCO2/god� 518,847,776 kWh/god� CHP (20MW):
� 73,181,928 kWhel/god (12%), � 65,645,424 kWhth/god (83%)
BMCHP Grid Boiler0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
An
nu
aliz
ed C
ost
($/
yr)
Cash Flow SummaryBiomass CHPGridBoiler
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30-60,000,000
-40,000,000
-20,000,000
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
No
min
al C
ash
Flo
w (
$)
Cash Flows
Year Number
Biomass CHPGridBoiler
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Pow
er
(kW
)
Monthly Average Electric ProductionBiomass CHPGrid
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
The
rma
l (k
W)
Monthly Average Thermal ProductionBiomass CHPBoiler
� We see that Base scenario is no economically optimal
� In his scenario we introduce bio mas cogeneration
� We see over the period of 30 years reduction of almost 16mEUR for energy
� In same time important this scenario increases local economy and rduces significantly pollution and also increases income from electricity that is selled to the national grid.
� Investment will pay back in 8 years
Maksimalnaemisija
[tCO2/god.]
Smanjenjeemisije CO2
[%]551,513,088 0
496,361,779 10
441,210,470 20
386,059,162 30
330,907,853 40
275,756,544 50
220,605,235 60
165,453,926 70
110,302,618 80
55,151,309 90- 100
100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,0000.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
Lev
eliz
ed C
ost
of
En
erg
y ($
/kW
h)
Levelized Cost of Energy vs. Max. CO2 Emissions
Max. CO2 Emissions (kg/yr)
•Covenant of majors envisions reduction of emissions for 40%•LCOE 0.059 €/kWh (+0.014 €/kWh electricity price increased for BASE)
� We are introducing reduction of emissions according to obligations of Serbia
� Also this reduction is in line with covenant of majors for 40%
� We have accepted this number a optimal ballance between more expensive and more radical reduction scenarios and also between less ambitious scenarios that are mostly prevailing in Serbia
� Price increased in national network accorixng to demands of IMF and WB[100-118%]
� LCOE 0.087 c€/kWh (93%)� We envision RES SOLAR investment in Photo
voltaic 260M€ (200MW), share of RES 51%� City would sell annually 72,585,168 kWh/god� City will take from national grid 352,225,760
kWh/god
PV BMCHP Grid Boiler0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
An
nu
aliz
ed C
ost
($/
yr)
Cash Flow SummaryPVBiomass CHPGridBoiler
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30-300,000,000
-250,000,000
-200,000,000
-150,000,000
-100,000,000
-50,000,000
0
50,000,000
No
min
al C
ash
Flo
w (
$)
Cash Flows
Year Number
PVBiomass CHPGridBoiler
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Po
wer
(kW
)
Monthly Average Electric ProductionPVBiomass CHPGrid
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Ther
mal
(kW
)
Monthly Average Thermal ProductionBiomass CHPBoiler
� Prices will increase in national networks due to pressure from IFIs
� In same time we have envisioned significant increase in own production of city
� After 15 years we envision major reconstruction of PV
PV WT BMCHP Grid Boiler0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
An
nu
aliz
ed C
ost
($/
yr)
Cash Flow SummaryPVWindTurbineBiomass CHPGridBoiler
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
Lev
eliz
ed C
ost
of
En
erg
y ($
/kW
h)
Levelized Cost of Energy vs. Min. Ren. Fraction
Min. Ren. Fraction (%)
•LCOE 0.043-0.108 €/kWh •51% udeo RES, LCOE 0.065 €/kWh•Prodato 33,929,068 kWh/god•Preuzeto 324,903,104 kWh/god
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Pow
er (
kW)
Monthly Average Electric ProductionPVWindBiomass CHPGrid
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Ther
mal
(kW
)
Monthly Average Thermal ProductionBiomass CHPBoiler
� We establish minimal level of renewable sources
� We envision between 0-70% of electricity produced from RES
� This scenario provides most demaning mix, but also envisions much better situation with regards to diversification, reduction of CO2 emsiison, local jobs
� It introduces also wind, Solar and bio mas as most important part of the energz mix
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
Po
wer
(kW
)
AC Primary LoadPV Pow erWindTurbineBiomass CHP Pow erGrid PurchasesGrid Sales
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Po
wer
(kW
)
Thermal LoadBiomass CHP ThermalBoiler Output
� Referent :� Etael=40%, (electricity in boiler)� Etath=75% (heath in boiler)
� Technically measures on demand side: � Reducing consumption for
electricity for 10% 30 godina, � investment 3M€. � Saving: 37,785,504 €
� Technical measures on production side (change of fuel): Co generation (CHP) on bio mass � 39.2% saving in primary energy. � Financial saving: 16,566,775 €.
what value
Share of RES 0.227
Saving of primary energy
39.2 %
Primary energy for bio mas CHP
164,356 MWh/god
Electricity produced in CHP
73,182 MWh/god
Production of heatCHP
65,645 MWh/god
Energy Efficiency of CHP
44.5 %
Thermal efficidncy of CHP
39.9 %
� Beside introduction of rES in sustainable energy sistems we introduce also Energy Efficiency measures that are saving significant primary energy
� We introduce at least 0-9% of saving
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
6
12
18
24
Ho
ur
of
Da
y
PV Output
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000kW
� *** (2016). PROGRAM ENERGETSKE EFIKASNOSTI GRADA SUBOTICE.
� Batas Bjelic, I. and R. M. Ciric (2014). "Optimal distributed generation planning at a local level – A review of Serbian renewable energy development." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 39: 79-86.
� IRENA (2017). Cost-competitive renewable power generation: Potential across South East Europe.
� Lambert, T., P. Gilman, et al. (2006). Micropower System Modeling with Homer. Integration of Alternative Sources of Energy, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: 379-418.
� Smajlović, E. (2009). HOMER SOFTVER - OPTIMIZACIJA MIKROENERGETSKIH SISTEMA SA OBNOVIVIM IZVORIMA ENERGIJE. Tuzla
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
6
12
18
24
Ho
ur
of
Da
y
WindTurbine Output
0
8,000
16,000
24,000
32,000
40,000
48,000
56,000
64,000
72,000
80,000kW
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
6
12
18
24
Ho
ur
of
Da
y
Biomass CHP Output
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000kW
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
6
12
18
24
Ho
ur
of
Da
y
Boiler Output
0
1,600
3,200
4,800
6,400
8,000
9,600
11,200
12,800
14,400
16,000kW