Trends in Higher Education

Presentation by Regent Robert Davidson

January 22, 2016

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Demographics

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Status • Nevada is diverse • Our higher education is diverse • White majority disappearing • Staff getting more diverse but lagging • Declining percentage of males, especially minority

males • Low quality of Nevada K-12

Demographics

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Trends • National focus on under representation of minority

males • Acceptance as well as graduation rates • Eventually all males • Higher Education will take a larger role in K-12

Demographics

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Funding

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Status • Have increased faster than inflation or household

income for 40 years • Some starting to question value of degree • Many believe there is waste in higher education

Costs

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Issues • Administrative staff and costs • Inefficient attempts at IT • Amenities and student services • Losses in athletic programs • Losses in hospitals and medical practices • Lavish facilities

Costs

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Trends • Reduction in administrative staff and costs • Better, less expensive, more efficient IT systems • Reduction in athletic losses • Fewer student amenities • Efforts to cut costs in hospitals and medical practices

Costs

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Status • State funding as % of costs has declined • Recession accelerated trend • No full recovery after recession • Replaced by tuition and fees driving student loans • Tuition and fees grew very fast

Funding

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Status • Student loans grew fast • 43 million with loans • Only 37% making payments • 7 million declared in default

Funding

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Status • Research funding has generally increased • Decreased during recession • Federal mandatory spending continues to escalate, 62

cents of every dollar goes to retirees • Research is discretionary spending

Funding

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Trends • More pressure on state budgets • Increased borrowing costs (assuming normal rates) • More K-12 expenses • Large Medicaid increases • Increases in pension and employee health care costs

Funding

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Trends • State funding will hold or decline • Increasingly based on performance • But there are limited funds and much competition

Funding

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Trends • Resistance to higher tuition and fees • State schools will seek out of state students • Students will shop for alternatives

Funding

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Trends • Student loans will be essentially 100% Federal • Increased regulation of Higher Ed by Feds • Performance criteria for institutional eligibility • If defaults grow – tighter restrictions – fewer, smaller

loans

Funding

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Trends • Federal research budget will be under pressure • Grants harder to obtain • Potential pressure on overhead expenses

Funding

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Instruction

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Status • Current methods are 600 years old • Lectures, assessment, seat time • Technology has changed the world • GPS, Internet, cell phones

Instruction

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Status • Amazon/Walmart • Decline of bookstores, live performances, movie

theaters • In person to print to audio/video to interactive media • Growth of e-learning (distance learning)

Instruction

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Status • Removes limits of time and place • Anywhere/Anytime

Instruction

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Status • Removes class size limits • From 30-200 to many thousands

Instruction

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Status • Changes marginal cost • From thousands of $ to tens of $

Instruction

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• Who is big in e-learning?

University Consortia • EDx • MIT, Harvard, Berkeley, Texas, Boston U., CalTech,

Columbia, Cornell • Purdue, Dartmouth, Davidson, Princeton, UC San

Diego, Penn • And many prestigious universities

Instruction

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Status • Coursera • Stanford, Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Michigan,

Washington, Chicago • Illinois, Nebraska, Yale, Rice • And many prestigious foreign universities

Instruction

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Status • UNLV and UNR are not listed in the top 200 US ranked

universities in online learning • Or listed among the many unranked active in online

learning

Instruction

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Status • New Universities • Western Governor’s University • Minerva University

Instruction

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Status • Most community colleges • Great Basin

Instruction

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Trends • Fewer Colleges/Universities • More technology/fewer facilities • Many fewer lecturing professors • Star lecturers

Instruction

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Trends • More competency less seat time • Lecture hall to anywhere • Changes to tuition • Universities/colleges licensing courses to others • Many schools disappear or become distributors of

courses

Instruction

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Trends • Community colleges reach into

– Homes – K-12 – Workplace

Instruction

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• Competition from others offering online courses • More of our students will want online courses • And if not offered by us then by others

Implications for NSHE

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• Focus on accepting and graduating minority males • Continue working with K-12 re college readiness • Reduce administrative staffing and costs • Be smart with IT • Reduce losses in athletics and medical practices

Conclusions

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• Be prepared for resistance in all forms of funding • Technology will get better • Instructional model will change more in the coming

decades than it has in 600 years • Investigate Edx and Coursera • Courses will be delivered by very few “star” professors • We need staffing flexibility

Conclusions

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Our institutions will adapt and prosper

Final Thought

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