TRENDS IN SALES OF MILK &

DAIRY PRODUCTS – A RETAIL

PERSPECTIVEMilk Market Observatory

25 January 2017

2

FrancePeriod ending 25 December 2016

Product category

Volume

(% change)

4 weeks period

(P13 ‘15/P13

‘16)

Volume

(% change)

Year on year

(P13 ‘14-P13 ‘15 /

P13 ‘15 –P13 ‘16)

Price

(% change)

4 week period

(P13 ‘15/P13 ‘16)

Price

(% change)

Year on year

(P13 ‘14-P13 ‘15 /

P13 ‘15 –P13 ‘16)

Total liquid milk -0,5% -2,8% +1,2% +2,6%

Of which UHT semi-

skimmed milk-6,4% -5,5% +0,4% +2,9%

Yoghurt & fresh

cheese+1,7 -0,8% -0,7% -0,7%

Butter +0,9% +0,1% +0,3% +1,9%

Cream -1,6% -1,4% -2,7% +0,8%

Cheese +1,7% +1,7% -0,7% -0,5%

Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l’Agriculture)

3

FranceSales of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products

Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l’Agriculture)

Organic milk & dairy products

Organic dairy products sales have

continued to increase. The increase is

registered on every product.

Organic market shares (% vol. 25/12/2016)

0,5%

1,1%

1,5%

3,4%

3,4%

7,5%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Cheese

Fresh

cheese

Cream

Yogurts

Butter

Liquid milk

6,4%

18,0%

14,7%

23,2% 22,2% 21,8%

-3,5%-1,5% -2,4%

-0,6%-1,7%

1,6%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Liquid milk Yoghurt Fresh

cheese

Butter Cream Cheese

Consumption of organic versus conventional

milk & dairy products% in volume, year to year 52 weeks 25/12/2016

Organic Conventional

4

Composition of the milk price in Germany according to value-added steps in 2016 (cents per litre)

3

6,4

1,6

1,8

8

0,5

8

1,4

15,3

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

VAT

Retailer cost and margin

Green Dot

Warehousing and logistics

Packaging

Dairy management and margin

Production costs of the dairy

Acquisition costs

Producer price

Source: Statista

5

Germany – consumer prices

January-October 2015 2016 2016:2015

1 litre fresh milk, 3,5% fat 0,64 0,60 -6,3%

1 litre UHT milk, 3,5% fat 0,62 0,57 -8,1%

1 litre organic fresh milk,

3,8% fat 1,13 1,13 0,0%

1 litre organic UHT milk,

3,5% fat 1,20 1,22 +1,7%

Quark, 500g, 0,1% fat 0,75 0,63 -16%

Own-brand butter, 250g 0,97 0,96 - 1%

Gouda, 1kg 5,58 5,11 -8,4%

Whiped Cream 0,45 0,37 -17,8%

http://www.milch-nrw.de/fileadmin/redaktion/pdf/Pressearchiv/2017/NRW-Milchmarkt_Jan_2016_.pdf

6

GermanyPeriod ending October 2016

Product category

Volume

% change

YTD

Value

% change

YTD

Butter +0,1% -1,0%

UHT milk -1,7% -8,4%

Fresh milk -0,2% -3,0%

Quark +0,0 % -4,6%

Natural yoghurt +2,3% +0,7%

Fruit yoghurt -3,9% -3,9%

Desserts -1,5% -3,4%

Dairy drinks +8,6% +8,5%

TOTAL -0,6% -3,5%

7

Hungary

Product categoryValue

December 2016 vs December 2015

Value

January – December 2016 vs 2015

Fresh and UHT milk +13,3% -2,4%

Milk products and cream +0,3% -1,8%

Milk desserts and puddings +13,2% +3,2%

Cheese +14,7% +3,5%

Butter, margarine +5,3% -1,5%

As of 1st of January, the VAT for fresh milk decreased from 18% to 5%;

Source: Nielsen

8

ItalyPeriod: 2016 vs. 2015

Source: Market Track Nielsen

(1) Peso imposto

Product category

Volume

2016 vs. 2015

% change

Volume

Q4 2016 vs

Q4 2015

% change

VALUE

2016 vs. 2015

% change

VALUE

Q4 2016 vs

Q4 2015

% change

Fresh milk -3,5% -0,4% -4,4% -1,7%

UHT milk -3,1% -3,2% -6,8% -6,1%

Yoghurt +0,7% 0,0% -1,0% -1,8%

Fresh cheese(1)+1,0% +0,9% -1,7% -1,6%

Fresh dessert +4,2% +7,2% +3,2% +4,5%

Cheese(1)+2,2% +2,7% +0,03% +1,1%

9

PolandPeriod ending - September 2016

Product category

Volume

(% change

Sept 2016 vs Sept

2015)

Volume

(% change

Jan-Sep 2016 vs Jan-Sep

2015)

Value

(% change

Sept 2016 vs Sept

2015)

Value

(% change Jan-Sept

2016 vs Jan-Sept

2015)

Coffee creamers +2,6% +6,8% +2,7% +0,7%

Condensed milk -8,5% -8,7% -9,4% -9,8%

Cream -2,3% +0,1% -1,3% -1,5%

Cultured buttermilk +4,9% +2,5% +4,4% +1,6%

Hard cheese +9,3% +17,4% +7,7% +13,5%

Kefir -0,4% +0,7% +0,7% +0,2%

Milk +1,6% +5,1% +0,9% +0,7%

Milk desserts -3,2% +3,3% -3,8% +0,3%

Mix yoghurt & juices -32,4% +110,4% -38,8% +99,1%

Mould cheeses +6,9% +5,8% +2,4% +1,6%

Processed cheese -6% -4,9% -5,5% -1,5%

Sweet fresh cheese +1,4% +8,7% +1,3% +4,3%

White Cheese +3,4% +8,7% +3,5% +6,7%

Yellow fats -4,3% -2,5% +6,8% +0,0%

Yoghurts -1,0% +4,5% -1,5% +2,37%

TOTAL +0,04% +3,5% +1,9% +2,11%

Source: Nielsen

10

Poland

3,32%

0,73%

0,31%

5,11%

0,26%

HARD CHEESE

8,68%6,74%

SWEET FROMAGE FRAIS

WHITE CHEESE

YOGHURTS

0,06%YELLOW FATS -2,55%

2,37%4,54%

4,32%8,69%

PROCESSED CHEESE -1,52%-4,28%

MOULD CHEESE 1,61%5,77%

MIX YOGURT & JUICES 99,08%110,38%

MILK DESSERTS

0,69%MILK

KEFIR

6,79%

13,56%17,39%

CULTURED BUTTERMILK 1,58%2,49%

CREAM -1,48%0,13%

CONDENSED MILK -9,78%-8,74%

COFFEE CREAMERS 0,69%

Value (% change Jan-Sept 2016 vs Jan-Sept 2015)

Volumes (% change Jan-Sept 2016 vs Jan-Sept 2015)

Source: Nielsen

11

Poland - sales of dairy products in supermarkets

8,0 %

7,0 %

6,0 %

5,0 %

4,0 %

3,0 %

-1,0 %

0,0 %

2,0 %

9,0 %

1,0 %

JAN 2016

0,43%

APR 2016 SEP 2016MAR 2016 JUN 2016 JUL 2016 AUG 2016MAY 2016

2,88%2,67%

FEB 2016

-0,30%

6,01%

0,37%

1,91%

8,34%

7,19%

1,83%

4,08%

5,13%

3,83%

-0,75%

0,04%0,34%

5,27%

2,55%

volume

value

Source: Nielsen

12

Portugal Period ending 25 December 2016

Source: Nielsen

Product category

Volumes

(% change

year-to-date)

Volumes

(% change

year-on-year)

Value

(% change

year-to-date)

Value

(% change)

year-on-year

Fresh milk -10,7% -10,7% -10,2% -10,2%

UHT milk -6,6% -6,6% -7,6% -7,6%

Yoghurt -1,7% -1,7% +0,2% +0,2%

Fresh cheese +2,0% +2,0% +0,9% +0,9%

Butter -1,0% -1,0% -3,6% -3,6%

UHT Cream +1,0% +1,0% -0,4% -0,4%

Fresh desert +13,5% +13,5% +14,8% +14,8%

Cheese +4,9% +4,9% +1,7% +1,7%

13

SpainPeriod ending November 2016

Product

category

Volumes

(% change

Nov 2016 vs

Nov 2015)

Volumes

(% change

Jan-Nov 2016 vs

Jan-Nov 2015)

Value

(% change

Nov 2016 vs

Nov 2015)

Value

(% change

Jan-Nov 2016 vs

Jan-Nov 2015)

Price

(% change

Nov 2016 vs Nov

2015)

Price

(% change

Jan-Nov 2016 vs

Jan-Nov 2015)

Standard liquid

milk-2,9% -5,3% -4,4% -6,7% -1,5% -1,5%

Other types of

milk+5,9% +3,1% +0,1% -0,1% -5,5% -3,1%

Milkshakes +4,2% +6,3% +4,8% +5,1% +0,6% -1,0%

Yoghurts and

fermented milk-0,5% -0,9% -2,2% -1,7% -1,7% -0,8%

Fresh desserts -0,6% -0,4% -1,1% -0,7% -0,5% -0,3%

Fresh cheese 0,0% -0,9% -0,1% +0,5% -0,1% +1,4%

Local,

traditional

cheese

+8,6% +6,8% +2,8% +2,2% -5,4% -4,3%

Processed

cheese-1,4% -2,4% -1,2% -1,9% +0,2% +0,5%

Imported

cheese

specialties

+2,5% +2,4% +0,6% -0,3% -1,9% -2,7%

14

Spain Period ending November 2016

Product category

Volume

(% change

Nov 2016 vs Nov

2015)

Volume

(% change

Jan-Nov 2016 vs

Jan-Nov 2015)

Value

(% change

Nov 2016 vs

Nov 2015)

Value

(% change

Jan-Nov 2016 vs

Jan-Nov 2015)

Price

(% change

Nov 2016 vs Nov

2015)

Price

(% change

Jan-Nov 2016 vs

Jan-Nov 2015)

Grated cheese+3,5% +3,2% +3,4% +3,2% -0,1% 0,0%

Other types of

cheese-0,6% -0,4% -2,4% -1,4% -1,8% -1,0%

Cream +2,2% +0,8% +0,8% -0,4% -1,4% -1,2%

Butter +13,0% +3,9% +11,0% +2,7% -1,8% -1,2%

Desserts and

yoghurt with

long

conservation

-11,6% -24,7% -27,9% -40,3% -18,5% -20,6%

Non-liquid milk +0,2% +3,0% -0,9% +1,5% -1,1% -1,5%

Total dairy

products -0,3% -2,1% -0,9% -1,5% -0,6% +0,6%

Source: Nielsen and FeNIL

15

Spain

Source: Nielsen and FeNIL

16

SwedenPeriod ending 25 December 2016

Product category

Volume

(% change in the

last 4 weeks)

Volume

(% change

last 52 weeks)

Value

(% change in the

last 4 weeks)

Value

(% change

last 52 weeks)

Milk-1,3% -0,8% -0,2% +1,7%

Hard cheese+0,5% +1,7% +2,8% -1,7%

Cream+1,0% +1,5% +1,7% +0,9%

Yoghurt+0,9% -0,5% +0,7% -0,8%

Cottage cheese/curd+3,6% +3,2% +1,4% +0,1%

Cold desserts+8,5% + 10% +13,4% +17,8%

Butter-2,7% +7,8% -3,2% +6,0%

Source: Nielsen

17

United Kingdom

UK Dairy Product Retail Price Indices

In November 2016, the RPI increased by 0,26% compared with October and is 2,19% higher than the same

month last year. The fresh milk price index increased 0,18% on the month and was also up 1,55% on the

year. The butter index increased on the month by 1,85% but decreased on the year by 5,45%. Cheese saw a

decrease on the month of 1,65% and a fall of 3,77% on the year.

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/dairy-sales-consumption/gb-retail-prices/#.WIDlsVMrIdU

18

United Kingdom

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/dairy-sales-consumption/cheese-market/#.WH3uLFMrIdU

19

United Kingdom

20

United Kingdom: contract league table

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/resources-library/market-information/milk-prices-contracts/league-table-new-profile/#.WH3umFMrIdU

21

United Kingdom

unit price (p) Jan-17 Dec-16 Month Diff. Jan-16 Annual Diff.

Liquid milk†

Retail (4 pints)* 103 103 n/c 100 +3

Doorstep (1 pint)** 81 81 n/c 81 n/c

ppl Nov-16 Oct-16 Month Diff. Nov-15 Annual Diff.

Cream††

Total Cream 241 241 n/c 240 +1

Double Cream 211 209 +2 212 -1

Single Cream 194 198 -4 191 +3

p/kg Nov-16 Oct-16 Month Diff Nov-15 Annual Diff.

Cheddar††

Total market 574 573 +1 596 -22

Mature 571 570 +1 597 -26

Mild 517 521 -4 542 -25

† updated monthly ; †† updated quarterly ; *pasteurised (private label)

**milkandmore monthly spot price - semi-skimmed glass bottle

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Online