World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme- Good practices through MHEWS mechanisms: experiences from the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee and the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones Dr. Xu Tang Director, Weather and DRR Services Department (WDS) WMO Secretariat Expert Group Meeting on Regional Strategies towards Building Resilience to Disasters in Asia and the Pacific, 26-28 October 2015, Bangkok
Transcript
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
WMO
Tropical Cyclone Programme-
Good practices through MHEWS mechanisms:
experiences from the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon
Committee and the WMO/ESCAP Panel on
Tropical CyclonesDr. Xu Tang
Director, Weather and DRR Services Department (WDS)
WMO Secretariat
Expert Group Meeting on Regional Strategies towards Building Resilience to Disasters
in Asia and the Pacific, 26-28 October 2015, Bangkok
WMO
Overview
The Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) as part of WMO's
Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department is
tasked to establish national and regionally coordinated systems to
ensure that the loss of life and damage caused by tropical cyclones
are reduced to a minimum.
TCP is effected on both national and regional levels through
cooperative action. It covers activities of Members, WMO
Regional Associations, other International and Regional Bodies
and the WMO Secretariat.
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
WMO
TCP’s Vision
...that the national and regionally coordinated
systems that it had helped establish will ensure that the
loss of life and damage caused by tropical cyclones are
reduced to a minimum.
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
WMO
TCP’s Mission
to encourage and assist its Members to:
•Establish and upgrade early warning systems with multi-hazard
configuration;
•provide forecasts and assessments of floods associated with tropical
cyclones;
•promote awareness to warnings and carry out activities at the interface
between the warning systems and the use of warnings, including public
information, education and awareness;
•provide the required basic meteorological and hydrological data and
advice to support hazard assessment and risk evaluation of tropical
cyclone disasters; and
•establish national disaster risk management and reduction
mechanisms associated with tropical cyclone.
WMO
TCP Components
General Component is
concerned with methodology
like transfer of technology,
information and scientific
knowledge to Members,
towards meeting the
objectives of the TCP. It also
encompasses the broader
training requirements of the
TCP.
WMO
TCP Components
Regional Component comprises the planning and
implementation of the programmes of the five TCP Regional
Bodies.
Each of the five Regional Bodies has an Operational Plan or
Manual which records the agreements reached on the sharing
of responsibilities for the warning services, and their
infrastructures, throughout its region.
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
Title of presentation
WMO
TC Regional Bodies and TC Regional
Warning Centres (full coverage)
9
WMO
TCP Regional Bodies in Asia and the
Pacific
ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (Estab. in 1968)
Members (14): Cambodia, China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Hong
Kong (China), Japan, Lao PDR, Macao (China), Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of
Korea, Singapore, Thailand and USA
RSMC Tokyo (Typhoon Center) and RSMC Honolulu (Hurricane Center)
Secretariat: TC Secretariat is located in Macao, China
WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (Estab. In 1973)
Members (8): Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri
Lanka and Thailand
RSMC New Delhi (Tropical Cyclone)
Secretariat: PTC Secretariat is located at Met. Headquarters, Islamabad,
Pakistan
Both are Inter-governmental regional bodies
WMO
TCP Regional Bodies in Asia and the
Pacific
RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (Estab. in 1985)
(for South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean)
Members (19): Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Indonesia, Kiribati,
Micronesia, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa,
Solomon Islands, Timor Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, United Kingdom, USA and Vanuatu
Non-members of WMO (3): Marshall Islands, Nauru and Palau
RSMC Nadi (Tropical Cyclone)
RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee is a Subsidiary Body of WMO Regional
Association V (South-West Pacific)
WMO
Regular Sessions of TC Regional Bodies
(Operational Plan)
ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (annual)
(47th Session, 9 - 13 February 2015, ESCAP - UN Conference Centre,
Bangkok, Thailand ) (3rd Joint Session with Panel)
WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (annual)
(42nd Session, 9 - 13 February 2015 ESCAP - UN Conference
Centre, Bangkok, Thailand ) (3rd Joint Session with Typhoon Committee)
RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (biennial)
(15th Session, 26 - 30 May 2014, Port Vila, Vanuatu, 16th Session,
July or August, 2016 , PNG)
RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee (biennial)
(21st Session, 28 September-2 October 2015, La Reunion, France)
RA IV Hurricane Committee Session (annual)
(37th Session, 13-17 April 2015, San Jose, Costa Rica)
WMO
TCP‘s Partners
WMO
TCP’s Scope
• Operational Meteorology
• Hydrology
• Disaster Risk Reduction
WMO
Tropical Cyclone Warning Service
Cascading Warning Process
- Data from Global Observation System
to TC Regional Centres and to
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Centres;
- NWP Centres to provide NWP products
of TC track and intensity forecasts;
- Regional Centres to make analyses &
forecast and prepare regional advisories
for NMCs;
- NMCs to issue alerts, advisories and
warnings and to liaise with Disaster
Management Offices.
• Public Weather Services (PWS) Programme
(e.g. to improve service delivery in all regions)
• Global Data Processing and Forecasting Systems (GDPFS)
(e.g. synergies with Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Projects (SWFDP)
in South-East Asia, Bay of Bengal and South Pacific)
• Marine Meteorology and Oceanography (MMO) Programme
(e.g. to improve storm surge watch and synergies with Coastal Inundation
Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) through collaboration with Joint
Technical Commission for Marine Meteorology (JCOMM))
• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Programme
(e.g. strengthening early warning system to support development of Multi Hazards
Early Warning Systems (MHEWS))
TCP Collaboration with relevant
Programme
• Space Programme (Satellite)
(e.g. improving satellite application in TC monitoring, intensity estimation and
tracking)
• World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)
(e.g. application of research into operations through tropical meteorology research,
verification methods for TC forecasts. The Eighth International Workshop on
Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) and Third International Workshop on Tropical
Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III) was held in Jeju, Republic of Korea from
2-10 December 2014)
• Aeronautical Meteorology Programme (AeMP)(e.g. promoting availability of graphical TC advisories by the designated Tropical
Cyclone Advisory Centres (TCACs) as per International Civil Aviation Organization
(ICAO) requirements)
TCP Collaboration with relevant
Programme
• Hydrology and Water Resources (HWR) Programme
(e.g. synergies with Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS))
• Regional Programme (RAP)
(e.g. strengthening mechanism with the support of the Regional Associations, to
include all Members affected by TCs into the regionally coordinated system)
• Education and Training Programme (ETR)
(e.g. Competency standards for TC forecasters)
• WMO Programmes for the LDCs and SIDS
(e.g. SIDSs Conference 2014 was held from 1 to 4 September in Apia, Samoa.
Strengthening weather climate services through various programmes including TCP,
GFCS,)
TCP Collaboration with relevant
Programme
WMO
Priorities in Asia and the Pacific
Capacity Building
• Warning capabilities of the Members improved through TCP/PWS joint training workshops and the attachment trainings. (e.g. at RSMCs Tokyo and New Delhi)
• Cooperative linkage established with other projects, i.e. the SWFDPs in Southeast Asia and Bay of Bengal and SWFDDP-South Pacific. (e.g through RSMCs in Tokyo and New Delhi)
• Requirement for professional human resources still pressing in developing countries, especially Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in improving the tropical cyclone forecasting skills and competencies required for effective operational capacity. (e.g. NMHSs in SIDSs in South Pacific are very small)
WMO
Priorities in Asia and the Pacific
Support to Operational Forecasting
• Increasing need to support forecasters to meet user’s demand throughefficient utilization of advanced technologies, data and products.
• Need for early update of the Global Guide to Tropical CycloneForecasting and enhancement of the WMO Tropical CycloneForecaster Website (maintained by Hong Kong Observatory).
Global and Regional Coordination
• Demands are growing for enhanced sharing of technologies andstandardization of procedures (SOP) and products across the regions.
• To establish a reliable link, and develop a mechanism with the supportof the regional associations, to include all Members affected by tropicalcyclones into the regionally coordinated system (e.g. Bhutan, Iran,Yemen etc. in Panel region are also influenced by tropical cyclonesdirectly or indirectly)
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WMO
Increasing Role of Regional Tropical Cyclone Bodies
• Regional bodies (including Typhoon Committee and Panel on Tropical Cyclones) taking increasing roles as platforms for various regional projects of WMO Programmes including DRR, DPFS, MMOP, WWRP and HWR as well as for Tsunami EWS projects of ICG. (e.g. SSOPs, CIFDP, SWFDP etc.)
• Need to ensure active involvement of hydrologists and DRR experts to strengthen the link between the three key areas of the regional activities – meteorology, hydrology and DRR.
Priorities in Asia and the Pacific
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WMO
Application of Research and Development
• Cooperative interaction promoted between forecasters and researchers through TCP/WWRP joint workshops.
• As its outcome, projects launched aiming to operationalize R&D achievements and to improve satellite analyses and database.
• Need to further strengthen the cooperation on both global and regional bases.
Implementation of Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS)
• Through collaboration with JCOMM, regional SSWSs implemented in all the cyclone basins with the initiative of TC RSMCs.
• Need to develop the warning capability also on a national level through capacity building to establish the SSWS globally.
Priorities in Asia and the Pacific
WMO
Storm Surge Watch Scheme
RSMC Tokyo started SS Forecast Chart in June 2011 and the SS Time-series Chart in June 2012.
RSMC New Delhi produced SS graphical advisories similar to RSMC Tokyo in 2013.
RA I and RA V TCCs formulated concrete SSWS regional projects
in 2012.
WMO
Storm Surge Watch Scheme
Actions were taken in all the basins
on the initiative of RSMCs.
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WMO
Regular Training Course/Workshop
RA I Training Course on Tropical Cyclones
and Workshop on PWS
- La Reunion, France (biennial)
Southern Hemisphere Training Course on
Tropical Cyclones and Workshop on PWS
- Melbourne, Australia (biennial )
RA IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting and Warnings and PWS
- Miami, Florida, (annual)
Training Workshop on Wave and Storm Surge Forecasting
- annual, but in rotation by TC basins
WMO
Regular Attachment Training
• RSMC Tokyo- for Typhoon Committee
• IIT Delhi (storm surge)- for Panel on Tropical Cyclones
• RSMC New Delhi- for Panel on Tropical Cyclones
• RSMC Honolulu (Pacific Int’l Desk Training Program)- for RA V (South Pacific)
• NOAA/NCEP (Tropical Training Desk Program)- for RA IV (Cental-America and Caribbean)
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WMO
• Improved regional coordination
• Capacity development well developed and implemented through regular specialized trainings on TC forecasting and storm surge
• Standarized Naming of tropical cyclones/typhoons conducted
• Establishment of working groups for senergy on meteorology, hydrology and DRR
• Regular technical publications, few examples are:
• Typhoon Committee Disaster Information System Manual
• General Guidelines For Setting-Up a Community-Based Flood Forecasting and Warning System (CBFFWS)
• Assessment Reports on Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Intensity in the Typhoon Committee Region
Summary of Achievements in Asia and the
Pacific
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WMO
• Establishment of Storm Surge Watch Schemes at RSMCs (including at RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi)
• WMO Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Website (maintained by Hong Kong Observatory
• Promoting research and its possible application into operations, for example:
• Typhoon Committee, North Western Pacific–Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP)
• “Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Change in the Coastal area (EXOTICA)” taken forward by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee
Summary of Achievements in Asia and the
Pacific
WMO
• Synergies with various projects as a way forward to establish Multi-Hazards Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) at national and regional levels including following:
• Synergies with Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Projects (SWFDP) in South-East Asia and Bay of Bengal (supported by ESCAP funding through RIMES)
• Severe Weather Forecasting and DRR Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) in South Pacific
• Development of Synergized Standard Operating Procedures (SSOP) for Coastal Multi-hazards Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean and South-East Asian Countries (jointly by the Typhoon Committee and the Panel on Tropical Cyclones (funded by ESCAP)
Summary of Achievements in Asia and the
Pacific
WMO
Challenges
Most of the members of TC Regional Bodies including Typhoon Committee and
Panel on Tropical Cyclone are developing countries including LDCs/SIDSs.
To fill the widening Gap between developing and developed countries.
Needs to develop human resources and communication capacity→ Enhancement of capacity building activities→ From GTS to WIS (WMO’s communication infrastructure)
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WMO
Challenges
Capacity development in LDCs and SIDSs as a
continued process (e.g. providing equipment and
technology is not enough, how to make use of the
technology is equally important)
Small Island Developing States (SIDSs): impact of
harzars on socioeconomic sectors e.g. marine
transportation and aviation, impact of climate change e.g.
sea level rise, high waves (synergy only solution)
Sustainability of MHEWS at national levels through
synergies, capacity development and collaboration among
all partner organizations
Track Forecast Errors (RSMC New Delhi) Intensity Forecast Errors
Track forecast has been improved steadily, but
intensity forecast still is a serious challenge.
Challenges
WMO
Challenges
Rapid changes of TC movement (speed and
direction), particularly during landfall
Rapid intensification of TC, particularly before
landfall (e.g. TC Nargis in 2008)
Forecast of rainfall/flooding (remotely) associated
with TCs (e.g. QPE/QPF)
WMO
Challenges
Impact Based Forcasting and Risk based Warning: Storm
Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS), Hazard Cluster
Identification, and Risk Mapping
Marine forecasting capabilities are very limited in almost
all countries. Local / regional storms surge, wave and
tsunami models and modeling capabilities are in general
