42
woodmac.comTrusted commercial intelligence
Alan Gelder, Vice President Research EMEARC Refining and Chemicals
2018 Fundamentals:Could this be a turning point on a journey to higher prices?
woodmac.com 33
Global oil demand
Oil demand growth to remain resilient into 2018
Slowdown in Q3 2017 demand growth is temporary, driven by one-off factors in US and India. China, India, and the US drive growth into 2018 while Europe begins to decline.
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Year-
on
-year
ch
an
ge,
'000 b
/d
2016 2017 2018
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Q1 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q1 2
016
Q1 2
017
year-
on
-year
ch
an
ge i
n m
bd
China India US Europe Global
Oil demand by region/ country
Source: IEA MODS, EIA, Wood Mackenzie
In the US, Hurricane Harvey hit demand via petchem feedstock. In India, there was a
strong base effect from high levels of demand in August 2016. India also faced heavy
rains/ flooding in September which dampened demand.
woodmac.com 44
US horizontal rig count forecast
Even though US rig count is projected to remain broadly stable, strong US tight oil production growth is forecast
The growing inventory of Drilled and Uncompleted Wells are developed.
Source: Wood Mackenzie, OECD/ IEA, MODS
US tight oil production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-1
5
Sep-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jul-1
6
Sep-1
6
No
v-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Jul-1
7
Sep-1
7
No
v-1
7
Jan-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Jul-1
8
Sep-1
8
No
v-1
8
Hz r
ig c
ou
nt
Other Hz (incl. gas rigs) Wolfcamp/Bone Spring
Eagle Ford Bakken
Niobrara Mid-Con
September Outlook
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jan-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-1
5
Sep-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jul-1
6
Sep-1
6
No
v-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Jul-1
7
Sep-1
7
No
v-1
7
Jan-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Jul-1
8
Sep-1
8
No
v-1
8
kb
d
Wolfcamp/Bone Spring Eagle Ford Bakken Niobrara Mid-Con
woodmac.com 55
Production increases from Libya and Nigeria reduces the effectiveness of the OPEC production cut agreement
OPEC adherence to cuts was strong in the first half of 2017
Source: Wood Mackenzie
OPEC production change relative to October 2016 reference levels
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
Millio
n b
/d
Libya, Nigeria and Iran Other OPEC Net change
Net impact of production cut agreement
has fallen from 1.28m b/d in March to 270
kb/d in July
woodmac.com 66
Non-OPEC supply growth to 2020 shows marginal decline outside of the USKey growth areas are Canada oil sands, Brazil and Russia
Year-on-year change in supply (million b/d)
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
US Non-OPECex US
Year-
on
-year
ch
an
ge (
millio
n b
/d)
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Year-
on
-year
ch
an
ge (
millio
n b
/d)
2017 2018
2019 2020
Source: Wood Mackenzie
woodmac.com 77
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Glo
bal su
pp
ly m
illio
n b
/d
Year-
on
-year
ch
an
ge,
millio
nb
/d
Global supply change Sep-17 Global supply (rhs)
US
A
Global Supply
Market faces supply growth of 1.8 million b/d in 2018 even with OPEC and Russian production restraint
We continue to assume the OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement is extended through end-2018
Global Demand
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year-
on
-year
ch
an
ge,
millio
n b
/d
China India Rest Asia US
Europe Other* Global * Other includes Middle East, Africa,
Russia/ Caspian, and Latin America
1.31.41.2
Asia
woodmac.com 88
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
US
$ p
er
bb
l
Price support from global stock
draw , accelerating demand
growth, and increased
geopolitical risk premium.
Price support from OPEC
production cut extension
through 2018.
Market looks to lagged effect of
pullback in project FID’s over
the past few years.
Brent price outlook (nominal)
Increased geopolitical risk premium and evidence of market rebalancing has provided recent price support
Source: Argus, Wood Mackenzie forecast
Global demand growth:
1.3 million b/d
Global demand growth:
1.4 million b/d
$53 $52
Brent reaches
monthly average
high of $57 for
2017
Price to come under pressure in H1 2018
as US production continues to grow – the
lagged effect of extensive drilling through
2017. Seasonal stock build in H1 2018.
woodmac.com 99
Global oil demand change by product
Oil demand growth remains strong, particularly in Asia and more balanced globally between gasoline and diesel/gas oil
US gasoline demand peaked in 2017 and so starts to decline slowly
Source: IEA MODS, EIA, Wood Mackenzie Product Markets Service
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
000
b/d
2016 2017 2018
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
An
nu
al
dem
an
d c
ha
ng
e (
mil
lio
n b
/d)
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero
Diesel/Gasoil Fuel oil Others
woodmac.com 1010
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mil
lio
n b
/d
Latin America Africa Europe Russia and Caspian Middle East Asia North America Global
0.3
1.1
Refinery capacity changes are less than global demand growth2017 is a low point, after which strong capacity additions outpace demand growth...
Source: Wood Mackenzie Product Markets Service
Net global CDU capacity changes
woodmac.com 1111
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Refi
ne
ry u
tili
sa
tio
n
5-yr range 2016 2017 2018 5-yr avg
Refineries continue to run hard through to 2018
High utilisation is required globally to meet growing demand for oil products
Source: Wood Mackenzie Product Markets Service
Global refinery utilisation
woodmac.com 1212
Globally, naphtha supply growth outpaces demand growth so inventories build and Asian crack spreads are weaker2018 naphtha prices in Asia are hence projected to be lower than 2017
Source: Wood Mackenzie Product Markets Service
Global naphtha inventory (days supply)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan
Feb
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
$/b
bl
5-yr range 2016 2017 2018 5-yr avg
Source: History Argus, Forecast Wood Mackenzie
Asian naphtha crack spread v Dubai
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
Jan
Feb
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
Sto
cks (
Days
supply
) .
5-yr range 2016 2017 2018 5-yr avg
Source: History JODI, EIA, National Statistics, Forecast Wood Mackenzie
woodmac.com 13
US Lower 48 Ethane Balance, kbd (H2 2016)
Strong demand growth for ethane by petrochemicals in both the US and exports requires significant supply growth New capacity and additional pipeline infrastructure is required, raising the cost of ethane
Source: Wood Mackenzie NGL Service
Ethane frac spread (to natural gas), US$/mmBtu
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Max supply Supply - base case Demand + exports
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
202
2
202
4
$/M
MB
tu (
No
min
al
$2
01
6)
Mont Belvieu - Houston Ship
US Northeast Dominion South
woodmac.com 1414
US propane exports are to return to growth and so prices weaken to export parity levels
Ethane prices are projected to start to decouple from natural gas
Source: Wood Mackenzie Product Markets Service
US C3 pricing forecast (US$/mmBtu)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Sep-1
1
Jan-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Sep-1
2
Jan-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Sep-1
3
Jan-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Sep-1
4
Jan-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Sep-1
5
Jan-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Sep-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Sep-1
7
Jan-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Sep-1
8
Natural Gas - HH Ethane - USGC Propane - USGC Brent
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1 2017-Q1 2018-Q1
Refinery supply Gas supply consumed domestically Exports (from gas)
US C3 supply forecast (kbd)
woodmac.com 1515
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
mil
lio
n b
/d
H1 2017 forecast 2000-16 Linear (2000-16)
Average annual growth
2000-16: 1.2 mbd, 1.4%
2016-35: 0.6 mbd, 0.6%
Global oil demand
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035m
illi
on
b/d
Transport other petchem ethane Other
Longer term world oil demand growth continues at a slower paceOil demand into transportation flat lines from 2030; oil feedstock into petrochemical accounts for more than half of total oil demand growth to 2035
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Cumulative growth in global oil demand vs 2016
50%
Growth
2016-35
woodmac.com 1616
Supply gap to 2025
US tight oil production nears its peak and the market looks to more expensive conventional oil to ‘fill the gap’
Source: Wood Mackenzie
New supply required to fill the gap
60
70
80
90
100
110
2017 Demand Demandgrowth by 2025
Non-OPECdecline,
onstream fields
Non-OPEC,projects under
dev
Supply gap
Millio
n b
/d
0
5
10
15
20
25
<$
40
$40
-$5
0
$50
-$6
0
$60
-$7
0
$70
-$8
0
$80
-$9
0
>$
90
Millio
n b
/d
OPEC Capcity Growth
Non-OPEC Other Sources
Conventional Pre-FID
US Lower 48 Future Drilling
Demand
Marginal cost of production rises to Brent
$70/bbl to $75/bbl range6.1m
14.7m
3.4m
17.4m
Capacity Growth
woodmac.com 1717
Brent price outlook shows a weaker price recovery due to US tight oil and a lower peak due to deep-water cost deflation
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Brent price outlook (real)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US
$,
co
nsta
nt
2017 p
rices
H2 2016 H1 2017, April 28
Source: Wood Mackenzie
4. 2027 and beyond sees price
pressure re-emerge as high cost
production is required to satisfy
demand. L48 has to work hard
to maintain production.
1. Price recovery is
slow: Brent reaches
just $65 by 2020.
Price appreciation is
constrained by growth
from the Permian.
3. $75 in 2023 leads to higher
investment in existing non-OPEC
production base. OPEC spare
capacity hits a peak in 2025 as
demand growth slows sharply.
2. Brent peaks at $75 in 2023 as L48
approaches peak production. The market
looks to more expensive conventional
projects to meet significant declines
woodmac.com 18
Conclusions2018 pricing expected to be weaker than 2017 for liquids, but not gases
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Despite strong oil demand growth, it is outpaced by US tight oil growth in 2018, so:
OPEC barrels are not required
2018 crude prices are likely to be weaker than 2017
Oil demand growth is more balanced in terms of gasoline and diesel, so helping to reduce
product inventories
Limited refinery capacity additions in 2017 and 2018 support strong refinery utilisations
Strong naphtha supplies and limited demand growth weakens naphtha cracks
US propane exports resume in 2018, once inventories are built, so propane prices weaken to
export parity
US ethane prices strengthen as US steam crackers start operations
woodmac.comTrusted commercial intelligence
Alex Lidback, Vice President – Chemicals, Fibres & Polymers
2018 & Beyond Fundamentals:The near term, more of the same? Longer term, uncertainties persist.
Agenda
Conclusions & impact on the investment profile at varying
oil prices
Chemical demand growth and its growing importance in the
energy value chain
Aromatics: driving force behind investments and impact on
global markets
Olefins: difference between the C2 and C3 chain
woodmac.com 21
Base chemical demand growth (3.5% per year) continues at over ten
million tons per year requiring continued investment.
Where? Who? Why?
Annual base chemical demand growth
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ethylene Propylene Benzene ParaxyleneSource: Wood Mackenzie
woodmac.com 2222
Chemical demand will represent the largest portion of oil demand growth despite representing a small part of the barrel
Oil demand in transport is projected to stall by 2030 increasing importance of chemicals as a driver of growth and value
Source: IEA Energy Statistics, Local Statistics, Wood Mackenzie forecast
Oil demand by sector Growth in Oil demand by sector
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
mil
lio
n b
/d
Petrochemicals
Other
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35
ag
gre
ga
te g
row
th in
5-y
r in
terv
ale
s, m
illi
on
b/d Other Electricity Res/Comm/Agri Petrochemicals Transport
Transport
Res/Comm/Ag
Electricity
woodmac.com 2323
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35
ag
gre
ga
te g
row
th in
5-y
r in
terv
als
, m
illi
on
b/d
Gasoline Diesel/GO Jet Fuel Oil Naphtha LPG Other
Growth driven by
petchem ("other"
includes ethane)
Chemical feedstock growth will be evident across naphtha, LPG and ethane. Feedstock preference will be price sensitiveGasoline demand post 2025 is expected to decline with improved efficiencies and electric vehicles
Growth in demand by major productOECD: improved vehicle efficiencies, government policies, fuel
substitution, consumer behavior, etc. will result in declining demand
post 2020
Non OECD: rising income, increased mobility, improving living
standards, growing working population will fuel growth
With a forecast of rising oil prices and ethane supply, expectations
are North America will continue to invest in ethane based ethylene
capacity. PDH capacity will also be added due to propylene
requirements and abundant propane.
Asia will diversify its feed slates with China leading investments.
Investments will include a drive to self-sufficiency for both olefins
and aromatics with the latter focusing on the polyester chain.
Middle East will see substantial capacity additions but the feedstock
slate will be more diversified than the traditional ethane. LPG and
naphtha will generate a more divers product slate including more
aromatics.
woodmac.com 24
By 2025 with falling gasoline demand in mainland Europe large volumes of chemical feedstock may become available
0
6
12
18
2025
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
MTBE
Reformate
C4s
Isomerate
Light naphtha
Heavy naphtha
Alkylate
Source: Wood Mackenzie
-
4.0
8.0
2025
Mil
lio
n t
on
s Paraxylene
Benzene
Butadiene
Propylene
Ethylene
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Assumes transalkylationApproximate spare gasoline component availability
Displaced gasoline demand in 2025
woodmac.com 25
While coastal refiners may see greater volumes the inland refiners will be more incentivized to expand chemicals.
-
4.0
8.0
2025
Millio
n t
on
s Paraxylene
Benzene
Butadiene
Propylene
Ethylene
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Assumes transalkylation
-
3.0
6.0
Coastal Inland
Millio
n t
on
s
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Landlocked sites will have
better netbacks and tend to
be protected from imports.
Approximate spare gasoline component availability
Displaced gasoline demand in 2025
woodmac.com 26Agenda
Conclusions & impact on the investment profile at varying
oil prices
Chemical demand growth and its growing importance in the
energy value chain
Aromatics: driving force behind investments and impact on
global markets
Olefins: difference between the C2 and C3 chain
woodmac.com 27
Key PX projects to monitor
01Zhejiang
Petrochemical
02Hengli
Petrochemical
03Ningbo Zhongjin
Petrochemical
04
Middle East
Rongsheng &
Tongkun mega-
project, initially 4 Mt
rising to 8 Mt
Hengli targeting
4 Mt +
Plans to double
PX from existing
output of 1.6 Mt
to 3.2 Mt +
Series of potential
plants scheduled for
post-2020
woodmac.com 28
China’s PX market evolution
Private sector integrated investment blocking off access to merchant demand
China PX supply structure
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Mt
Merchant supplier NOC supplier Private integrated supplier Imports
woodmac.com 29
Paraxylene heading into an over-capacity profile
Percent of overcapacity for paraxylene
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ParaxyleneSource: Wood Mackenzie
woodmac.com 30
0
200
400
600
800
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2010 2015 2020
Sp
rea
d (
$/t
)
Pri
ce
($/t
)
Spread (RHS) Naphtha (Japan CFR) Paraxylene Asia Contract
Asia PX naphtha spreads relatively steady over next few years before testing cost floors post 2020
Shape post 2020 linked to pace of completion of major refinery to PX assets in China & wave of ME investments
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie
Forecast
woodmac.com 31Agenda
Conclusions & impact on the investment profile at varying
oil prices
Chemical demand growth and its growing importance in the
energy value chain
Aromatics: driving force behind investments and impact on
global markets
Olefins: difference between the C2 and C3 chain
woodmac.com 32
Ethylene excess capacity minimal and nowhere near paraxylene
Percent of overcapacity for ethylene & paraxylene
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Ethylene ParaxyleneSource: Wood Mackenzie
woodmac.com 33
Integrated ethylene margins ease with new capacity as polymer margins suffer….monomer, not so much
Regional integrated ethylene-HDPE margins
Forecast
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2015 2020
West Europe - HDPE Margin (Naphtha, Leader Plant) US Gulf Coast - Spot Export HDPE Margin (Ethane, World Scale) China - HDPE Margin (Naphtha, World Scale)
Nominal Dollars per Ton
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie
woodmac.com 34
Propylene Propane Exports Solves “Excess Problem”
-10
0
10
20
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ethylene Deriviatives Ethylene Ethane
Million Tons, US Net C2 Chain Exports
-10
0
10
20
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Propylene Derivatives Propylene Propane
Million Tons, US Net C3 Chain Exports
C2 Chain Exports C3 Chain Exports
woodmac.com 35
Ethylene China Ability to Absorb Imports or Build Own
0%
30%
60%
90%
0
20
40
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Capacity Derivative Demand Self Sufficiency
Million Tons Self-Sufficiency
Source: PCI Wood Mackenzie
China Ethylene Self-Sufficiency China Ethylene Derivative Trade
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Polyethylene Vinyls Ethylene Glycol Styrene
Imports (+)
Exports (-)
Million Tons, Ethylene Equivalents
woodmac.com 36
Propylene China Invests in Propylene to Be Self-sufficient
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
20
40
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Capacity Deriviative Demand Self-Sufficiency
Million Tons Self-Sufficiency
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Polypropylene Acrylonitrile Cumene/Phenol
Imports (+)
Million Tons, Propylene Equivalents
China Propylene Self-Sufficiency China Propylene Derivative Trade
woodmac.com 37Agenda
Conclusions & impact on the investment profile at varying
oil prices
Chemical demand growth and its growing importance in the
energy value chain
Aromatics: driving force behind investments and impact on
global markets
Olefins: difference between the C2 and C3 chain
woodmac.com 38Oil prices may have a significant impact on the investment profile
and United States polyethylene trade
Trade flows – LOW case (000 tons) Trade flows – HIGH case (000 tons)
0
18000
0
18000
0
18000
Source: GTT, Wood Mackenzie
Trade flows – BASE case (000 tons)
➢ The higher the oil price the more
advantage US producers will be resulting
in more and more investments in capacity
➢ Low oil prices reduces the advantage
slowing investments
woodmac.com 39
Oil prices are instrumental in European ethylene cracker operating rates
Ethylene operating rates & Brent Oil prices
20
40
60
80
100
120
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
US
$/b
bl
(NO
MIN
AL
)
Brent Oil ($bbl) Europe Op. Rate (%)Source: Wood Mackenzie
High oil prices lead to
rationalization and
ethane import
investments
Low oil prices
result in good
chemical margins
and investments
woodmac.com 40
Conclusions2018 should be another good year for the chemical industry
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Chemical demand growth of 3.5 percent should persist requiring an additional
ten plus million tons per year of base (ethylene, propylene, benzene &
paraxylene)
Chemicals becomes more and more important in the energy chain
Extensive paraxylene capacity is expected to have downward pressure on
margins
Ethylene capacity excess is absorbed relatively quickly
C2 and C3 chains behave very differently
Investments: Where? Who? Why? – partly dependent on oil prices but also
access to competitive feedstocks…situations vary by potential investment
woodmac.com 4141
Disclaimer
Strictly Private & Confidential
This presentation has been prepared for the 12th GPCA Forum on November 2017 by Wood
Mackenzie Limited. The presentation is intended solely for the benefit of attendees and its contents
and conclusions are confidential and may not be disclosed to any other persons or companies
without Wood Mackenzie’s prior written permission.
The information upon which this presentation is based has either been supplied to us or comes from
our own experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed in this presentation are
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