Next-generation turbofan engines, due to arrive on new narrow-body aircraft by 2015, promise dramatic efficiency improvements thanks to the introduction of innovative new technologies. Yet these sweeping changes to engine architectures are threatening traditional suppliers’ competitiveness and ultimately forcing them to reevaluate their position in the supply chain. Mark Shields Jay Carmel Turbofan Engine Technology Upgrades — How Should Suppliers React?
Transcript
Next-generation turbofan
engines, due to arrive on new
narrow-body aircraft by 2015,
promise dramatic efficiency
improvements thanks to the
introduction of innovative new
technologies.
Yet these sweeping changes
to engine architectures are
threatening traditional
suppliers’ competitiveness and
ultimately forcing them to
reevaluate their position in the
supply chain.
Mark Shields
Jay Carmel
Turbofan Engine Technology
Upgrades — How Should
Suppliers React?
2
Turbofan Engine Technology Upgrades
Nowhere is this transformation more evident
than in the narrow-body segment, where
substantial performance improvements by
CFM’s LEAP-X and Pratt & Whitney’s (P&W)
PW1000G Geared Turbo Fan (GTF) have led
Airbus and Boeing to postpone major clean-
sheet aircraft development projects in favor of
re-engined A320 & 737 families.
The original equipment manufacturers
(OEMs) may bicker over percentage point
differences in operating metrics, however the
performance improvements that both engines
anticipate over current A320 and 737 power
plants have driven over $400B in total new
narrow-body orders. Two key technology
breakthroughs have ultimately made these
performance improvements possible:
New materials and coatings
Optimized 3D manufacturing processes
Over the last several years, major improve-
ments in turbofan engine technology, along
with sustained high fuel costs, have accelerat-
ed retirements of aging aircraft and helped
drive order backlogs for new commercial
aircraft to record-breaking levels. The average
retirement age for commercial airline fleets
has dropped from 30 to less than 25 years
since 2008, and with fuel burn per flight mile
estimated to be approximately 15% lower than
current engines, new high-efficiency turbofans
will begin replacing older, fuel-guzzling
engines at a blistering pace over the next
decade.
“The average retirement age for
commercial airline fleets has dropped
from 30 to less than 25 years
since 2008...”
Turbofan Engine Technology Upgrades
3
While these technological advances create
exciting opportunities for both engine
manufacturers and their customers, they have
important ramifications for current players
across the supply chain. Specifically, these
developments threaten the competitiveness of
raw materials providers, Tier I, and Tier II
parts manufacturers, and could reduce their
addressable markets dramatically. The
introduction of next generation engines poses
critical strategic questions for suppliers,
forcing them to reposition themselves in terms
of their customer mix, platform exposure, and
the products and services they provide.
New Materials and Coatings
Cutting fuel burn is the primary objective for
engine manufacturers, especially as fuel prices
continue to account for over 30% of airlines’
operating costs. New durable, lightweight
materials are helping curtail fuel consumption
by improving engine performance in two key
areas: thermodynamic and propulsive
efficiency. These enhancements also help
reduce emissions, noise, and maintenance
costs, providing airlines further incentives to
accelerate retirement of last generation
engines in favor of newer turbofans.
Thermodynamic Efficiency
With engine thermodynamics, maximizing the
temperature at which the engine core operates
directly translates to greater engine efficiency.
The most advanced metal alloys available to
date for critical items like high-pressure
turbine shrouds have melting points below
the temperatures at which jet fuel burns,
limiting the temperature at which the core can
operate. However, with the introduction of
highly advanced materials like Ceramic
Matrix Composites (CMC) on LEAP-X
shrouds, the engine core can now approach
temperatures up to 2,400°F, nearly 500°F
hotter than previously possible. This means
that inefficient bleed air systems once needed
to cool the hot section of the engine are now
no longer required, simplifying the design and
reducing the number of components in the
high-pressure turbine.
New coatings also contribute to optimized
thermodynamic efficiency. While CMCs are
critical for turbine shrouds, which direct
hotter exhaust gases through the high-
pressure turbine, other non-composite
components in the hot section must still be
able to withstand this harsh environment.
CFM and P&W are both introducing
proprietary coatings to ensure that metal
temperatures remain low enough to inhibit
unnecessary damage. With over 90% of engine
maintenance costs originating from compo-
nents in the core, ensuring low metal heat is
highly advantageous.
“...the performance improvements that
both engines anticipate over current
A320 & 737 power plants, have
driven over $400B in total new
narrow-body orders...”
4
Turbofan Engine Technology Upgrades
180 pound reduction in the weight of the
turbine.
New 3D Manufacturing Processes
The improved reliability of 3D manufacturing
and design tools also supports the major
engine performance breakthroughs visible on
the LEAP-X and GTF. Two key processes that
leverage 3D technology are Direct Metal Laser
Metaling (DMLM) and Resin Transfer
Molding (RTM).
Direct Metal Laser Metaling
Instead of traditional machining that removes
excess metal to create a desired component,
Direct Metal Laser Metaling (DMLM) can
“grow” parts from the ground up by melding
together ultra-thin layers of powdered
material with a laser welding machine.
Components with complex geometries once
thought impossible to produce can now be
built organically in a single piece, with the
help of 3D design software that plots
individual blueprints of each ultra-thin layer.
This freedom of design affords significant cost
as well as performance improvements.
P&W, as well as GE, a CFM partner, have both
refined DMLM capabilities for use on a
Propulsive Efficiency
One of the critical differentiators driving
improved propulsive efficiency for the GTF is
the proprietary, light-weight metals used in
the gearbox. Gearing systems are not new to
aircraft engines; the ability to decouple the
turbine from the fan and enable each
component to turn at its optimum speed for
greater efficiency has always made for an
attractive engine architecture, but previous
designs have been both unreliable and unable
to generate proper thrust for large aircraft
(e.g., Garret TFE731, Avco Lycoming
LF502/507). The introduction of a low-weight,
high-strength gear system with just seven
moving parts provides the GTF engine with
40,000 pounds of thrust and has enabled
dramatic design changes across the engine
architecture to improve propulsive efficiency.
Not only does the slower-rotating fan enable
a larger diameter, and in turn, the largest
bypass ratio for a turbofan (12.2:1), but the
gearbox allows the low-pressure turbine to
run at its optimal high speed, eliminating the
need for up to six low-pressure turbine (LPT)
and low-pressure compressor stages (LPC).
This translates into roughly 1,500 fewer blades
across the LPC and LPT. CFM has also found
ways to cut excess weight from the LEAP-X
turbine, despite the absence of a gearbox. It
has incorporated light-weight, highly durable
materials like titanium aluminide into its
turbine blades to cut down on weight and the
number of blades. The material is half as
dense as traditional nickel superalloys yet
equally durable, ultimately contributing to a
“...the introduction of a low-weight, high-
strength gear system with just seven
moving parts...has enabled dramatic
design changes across the engine
architecture...”
Turbofan Engine Technology Upgrades
5
variety of new components for the GTF and
LEAP-X, including blades, tubing, and stators.
P&W, in conjunction with the University of
Connecticut, has developed an Additive
Manufacturing Innovation Center, where
engineers have been researching new
applications for 3D-printed metal parts on the
GTF engines. One of GE’s most transforma-
tive uses of DMLM has been in the design and
manufacture of the LEAP-X’s fuel nozzles.
Fuel nozzles are traditionally subject to
coking, the build-up of carbon deposits from
fuel that is sprayed at over 3,000°F into the
combustion chamber. Over time, the residue
alters the flow pattern of the fuel spray and
adversely affects the overall efficiency of the
engine. GE’s new additive fuel nozzle is
“grown” with cooling pathways inside the
nozzle to eliminate coking and improve
durability; what was once an 18-part
component now consists of just a single part,
25% lighter than the traditional nozzles it
replaces.
3D-woven Resin Transfer Molding
An equally transformative manufacturing
technique that contributes to engine perfor-
mance improvements is 3D-woven Resin
Transfer Molding (RTM) of composite
materials.
Just as the GTF’s geared architecture enables
P&W to incorporate a larger fan size and
increase the bypass ratio, CFM’s patented 3D
RTM allows for a dramatically lighter fan with
fewer blades but greater overall durability.
Instead of combining multiple layers of
composite plies to form blades, LEAP blades
are woven in three dimensions, shaped into a
rigid mold and counter-mold, and then
injected with liquid resin. These improved fan
blades have a thinner, more geometrically
curved design that uses less material and is
more aerodynamic than titanium counter-
parts. They also have no life limitations and
cut nearly 1,000 pounds off the fan section,
enabling a larger fan size and a bypass ratio
twice that of the CFM56.
Strategic Considerations for the Supply
Chain
The range of technical innovations that CFM
and P&W are incorporating into next-
generation engines to improve fuel efficiency,
cut emissions and noise, and reduce mainte-
nance costs, are proving to be a boon for
aircraft OEMs and, in turn, airline customers.
At the same time, they jeopardize many firms’
positions in the supply chain. The alterations
made by leading OEMs to traditional engine
sub-systems are likely to have a profound
impact on supplier shipset value and overall
platform presence. Moreover, these changes
will be far-reaching in their effects. Beyond
the blade and nozzle changes described
earlier, CMCs, for example, eliminate the need
“...what was once an 18-part component
now consists of just a single part, 25%
lighter than the traditional nozzle
it replaces.”
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Turbofan Engine Technology Upgrades
systems like fluid management devices, but
not for the smaller mechanical components
like tubing or valves that are integral to these
devices. Determining the firm’s actual
addressable market given recent technological
developments is absolutely essential to
creating an actionable strategic plan.
Assess the Impact of Future Sourcing Patterns
Determining how changing engine designs
will affect the firm’s market, and the rate of
this change at a detailed level – which
components or sub-systems are more prone to
major design adjustments or substitutions – is
the essential second step. Answers will vary
for each company depending on platform
content and supply chain position, as well as
the cost, size and weight of produced
components. Combined, the addressable
market baseline and future sourcing trends
analysis reveal how much revenue the firm
can depend on from the existing product suite
and quantify the gap between that baseline
and the firm’s growth objectives.
Craft a Winning Strategy
With a stable base forecast, companies must
then decide how to shift to new products that
will secure content on future engine types to
support revenue growth. A winning strategy
for valves, seals, and pneumatic ducting that
provide bleed air into the engine core.
As these new engines grow rapidly in terms of
their overall share of the market, firms up and
down the supply chain are likely to experience
substantial and sudden changes to their
business prospects, particularly in terms of
customer demand and revenue outlook,
existing inventory value, and product mix. As
new technologies continue to supplant
traditional engine design elements, firms
across the supply chain will have to undertake
a series of strategic moves to endure in a
changing market environment.
While those strategic decisions are unique to
each firm and its position in the market, they
must be grounded on an objective, up-to-date
understanding of their market, emerging
customer requirements, and the changing
competitive landscape. Specifically, senior
executives across supply chain must:
Define the Addressable Market Baseline
The high specificity of the applications for
which many small products are designed has
left many firms without a comprehensive
view of their addressable market size and has
limited their visibility into platform presence.
For instance, forecasts exist for major sub-
“CMCs, for example, eliminate the need
for valves, seals, and pneumatic
ducting that provide bleed air
into the engine core.”
“...firms across the supply chain will
have to undertake a series of strategic
moves to endure in a changing market
environment...”
Turbofan Engine Technology Upgrades
7
may require new capabilities in materials,
coatings, and 3D processes developed
organically or acquired through non-organic
means. Broadening one’s addressable market
will ultimately serve as a foundation for a
long-term strategy that dictates how to
allocate business development resources,
make appropriate organic investments, and
execute well-timed and targeted M&A
decisions.
As the leading independent management
consulting firm providing growth strategies to the
