Turkey A National Critical Intelligence Estimate Presented by Section 31 For Approval by Professor...

Turkey

A National Critical Intelligence Estimate

Presented by Section 31

For Approval by Professor R. Nichols

Section 31

Jay Kippen, Team LeaderDan Routier, Executive Officer

Economic

Darcy Pitkin

Kyle Leisner

Military

Ekow Ocran

Enzi Jauregui

Political

Kristell Havens

Kristina Anderson

Intelligence/Cyber Security

Brendan Kinchla

Naveen Kumar

Jeff Sperry

Agenda

• Executive Summary• State Snapshot• Political • Economic• Military• Intelligence• Key Judgments

• Possible outcomes

Useful Definitions

• Political Islam • The inclusion of Islam into the secular political arena

• Conservative Democracy• In Turkey conservative democracy is liberalism by

promoting social conservativeness

• Theocracy• A government ruled by religious virtues

• Secular• Not bound by any religion

• Secularism• A noted separation between government and religion,

common in Turkish politics.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary Critical Intentions

•Based on analysis of available data points, it is believed:•Intent of the AKP party with assistance from the Muslim Brotherhood is to quietly institute various non-secular religious political reforms;• To consolidate and maintain control of the government•via use of subversive political tactics;•clear intentions of creating an extremist religious Muslim nation• that is contrary to western principles

Executive Summary Capabilities

AKP capabilities to complete their intentions

• Infiltration of key military and government branches• Control of Military

• Military Chief of Staff is a member of AKP and considered principal figure for carrying out coup attempts

• Control of Legislature

• Controls the military through legislation, i.e. military reforms, budget etc...

• Control Judicial branch

• Placement of AKP friendly staff

• Courts are not open to public scrutiny- ripe with corruption

• Turkey is at a crossroads in their secular ideology and political identity, turning either direction will send the country and people towards an uncertain future

• Right the country will fall into a Muslim extremist state thereby isolating itself from western influence, but at a price

• Left involves the military stepping in to protect the secular ideology with prospects of a civl war or military control for an extended period

• Straight allows the Muslim Brotherhood to continue solidifying their march towards an extremist state and ruling out any further chances for normalcy

• Understanding the consequences of this international crisis is of major importance, not only in terms of strategic interests for United States but the whole world

• This report will focus on the implications if Turkey becomes a Muslim radicalized nation-state similar to Iran

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key areas for analysis

• Identification of strategic important areas for the United States, and their relevance

• Analysis of hypothetical predictions and their outcomes

• Identification of potential key indicators • Political

• Economic

• Intelligence

• Military

• Development and analysis of alternate outcomes based on analysis of critical data points and assumed predictions

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary U.S. Interests

Areas of strategic importance for the United States in relation to Turkey's geopolitical situation

• Energy Security• Turkey's strategic location provides a means for regional distribution of

oil /gas originating in the Middle East and Caspian basin through a series of pipelines traversing Turkish territory

• Regional stabilization efforts• With Turkey's standing in the Muslim world the US is able to use Turkey as

an intermediary in relations with other regional Muslim nations concerning Israel, Syria, Jordan, and to an extent Iran

• Provides a unique example to combat fundamentalist through the use of Democracy and secular activities

Executive Summary U.S. InterestsContinued

Areas of strategic importance for the United States in relation to Turkey's geopolitical situation

• Military Cooperation• NATO- Turkish involvement provides the west a unique opportunity to

conduct regional stabilization efforts in relation to former Soviet bloc Muslim nations

• Missile defense systems- Turkey's strategic location provides an ideal location for defending against missile launches from Iran

• War on Terror- with Turkey's assistance several key regional states supported efforts to combat terrorism

Executive SummaryPredictions

PREDICTIONS IF TURKEY RADICALIZES• Political

• Turkey Loses Bid to join EU• Turkey Loses NATO Membership• Turkey Aligned Politically with Iran• (Cyprus occupation)

• Economic• Turkey’s Economy will Decline/Collapse

• Military• Military Coup Probable• Imzir & Incirlik Air Bases and Airspace Permissions Revoked• (Cyprus occupation)

• Intelligence/Cyber Security• Turkey will increase intel relationship with Iran while decreasing

relationship with US/Israel• Loss of SIGINT and HUMINT Resources and Placement

Executive Summary Key Indicators

• Political• Government instituting unpopular Islamic reforms contrary

to Turkey's secular ideology• Reinstated Hatip religious schools• Started sponsoring official Quran courses• Started teaching Sunni Islam in schools• Dramatically Increased the number of mosques • The secular population is now moving away from viewing the

government in a favorable way

• Freedom of press is constrained • The government established controls to limit news media• No longer can Turkish people express opposition to

government

• Key government players are from a pro-Islamic background with strong ties to the Muslim Brotherhood

• Increased the Directorate of Religious affairs budget from 553T to over 2.7Q in first 4 years of rule

• Economic• Decline in economic growth, measured from pre- Erdoğan

1990 to present 2013• Private sector has increased borrowing, in March of 2013

Turkeys private sector foreign debt was 202 million, up from 138.5 the previous month, total debt currently 38.5 billion

• Suspected increase of the Hawalas system cannot be predicted due to the nature of the system, almost no records are kept, it is noted that an increase in Hawala usage occurs during time of conflict and political discord

• Istanbul stock market decreased by 10% and Interest rates are up 50%

Executive Summary Key Indicators Continued

Economic• Government influence in the private sector

o President Erdoğan accusing Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) of terrorism

Turkey has a history of prosecuting companies for suspected anti-government activities

Possible government sanctions or loss of business KOC represents 6% of total economic output Have lost 17% of business since the riots

Executive Summary Key IndicatorsContinued


• Military• Infiltration of pro-Islamic military officers into the current

ranks

• Current ruling party instituted military reforms designed to limit their power in the political arena in order to curb coup attempts

• Through political action, redefined the military's responsibilities to strictly protect the country from outside threats

• Persecution of key military officers who would be in the position to direct a coup

• Demonstrations over US military bases, seeking expulsion from Turkey

• Continued decrease in military budget

• Intelligence• Recently developed intelligence sharing capabilities with

Iran in order to combat Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorism

• Provided US equipment to Iran

• Turkeys intelligence relationship with the US has cooled since 2004

• Mainly due to perceived US support for the Kurdish PKK party


STATE SNAPSHOT

Including a Brief History

State Snapshot

• Geographical strategic location for controlling Turkish straits

• Slightly larger than the state of Texas

• 7200 km of coastline• Many natural resources

• Coal

• Iron

• Copper

• Mercury

• Ethnic groups• Turkish 70-75%• Kurdish 18%• Other 7-12%

• Economic resourceso Agricultural Outputs

Tobacco Cotton Grain Olives

• Language-Turkish

• Religionso Muslim-99.8%o Mostly Sunnio Other-.02%

• Population 80 Million

• 81 Provinces

State SnapshotFacts

• Turkey Estimated Population- 80 million

• Percent of total population Muslim- 99.0 (~79 million)

• Capital: Ankara

• Government Type: Republic parliamentary democracy with a free market economy• Suffrage: 18 years of age

• Last elections were held during June, 2011

• Recently, presidential elections were amended to reflect a direct election process

• Next elections will be held June 2015

• Political Parties (at least 61)

• Administrative Divisions: 81 Provinces

• Independence: 29 October 1923 • Marked by a national holiday every October 29

• Constitution Ratified on 7 November 1982

• Amendment passed by referendum October 21, 2007

Illustration of Turkey’s Strategic Importance to Middle Eastern Affairs

Google Earth (Cartographer). (2013). Middle east map [Topographic map]. Retrieved from https://maps.google.com/maps?q=middle+east+map&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x157ec4658142ffb7:0xa5b8320215ea72c,Middle+East&gl=us&ei=bEDjUcbaG87j4AOmmYDADA&ved=0CCwQ8gEwAA

Key judgments and possible outcomes

Prediction One

Key judgment and possible outcome

• Turkey gains Economic Union (EU) membership and becomes radicalized

• Analyzing all data points• Political• Economic• Military• Intelligence

• Has NO effect on western relations

Prediction Two


• Turkey fails to gain EU status• Erdogan's 2002 promise to attain EU

memberships is a key component to AKP's popularity, which if their bid fails would almost certainly spell defeat for his non-secular state and the AKP party

Prediction Three


• Continued pro-islamic government intervention through unpopular reforms resulting in a military coup similar to the 1960 one• Junior grade officers stage the coup without

approval or knowledge from higher military leadership

• Unique as it applies to today's situation• AKP has infiltrated key military command structures• Has also infiltrated elements of junior grade officers

• Consolidated gains from Political, Legislative, and Judicial branches

Presented by, Kristell Havens and Kristina Anderson

Agenda

• Summary• Key Political Indicators• Predictions• What If Scenario• Supporting History• Political Organization• Consequences

POLITICAL

Political Summary

•Government type: republic parliamentary democracy with a free market economy

•Turkey’s geographical location allows them to act as the bridge between Europe and the Middle East

•This position has helped Prime Minister Erdoğan build up Turkey’s political influence and economy over the last decade

Political SummaryContinued

•The political and societal upheavals in recent times within this region have left Turkey largely unscathed

• Electoral democracy- allows for flexibility and gives the people of Turkey a voice in their government.

•Recent protests and military actions within the state have opened up international discourse on the realities of the political situation in Turkey

•Corruption, cronyism, lack of transparency and accountability•Creeping authoritarian actions•Fundamentalist restrictions on democracy

Political SummaryContinued

•The Syrian refugee influx and border violence is spilling over into Turkish soil, and they are largely ill-equipped to handle the crippling effects

•Turkey still acts as an occupying force in Northern Cyprus, with no plans to yield on their position

•They are now fighting for claims to newly discovered oil reserves on the southern half of the island

Key Indicators of Political Discourse

•Prime Minister Erdoğan is instituting reforms that are considered unpopular with secular populations

•Secular population is moving away from viewing the government

in a favorable light

•Pro-Islamic reforms have resulted in Erdoğan losing his majority

mandate

•Freedom of the press is constrained•Influence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) inside of Turkey has grown•The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is viewed with suspicion by some segments of the electorate, since they have strong Islamic ties, and their policy output tends to lean toward Islamic based ideals.

Key Indicators of Political DiscourseContinued

• Erdoğan is pushing for international legislation that would make it illegal to affront the sensitivities of Muslims

• Twitter, Facebook, or any other social media device has been labeled a societal risk• The government is concerned that it will compromise

Islamic values- but more than that it will encourage protest as it did in the Arab Spring

• "There is a problem called Twitter right now and you can find every kind of lie there, The thing that is called social media is the biggest trouble for society right now."-Erdoğan

• Erdoğan is attempting to take away freedoms that democracy has brought, even making it illegal to buy alcohol at college campuses

Key Indicators of Political DiscourseContinued

• Turkey is currently the #1 jailer of journalists in the world • December 2012, 49 journalists were imprisoned, the next

closest country was Iran with 45• Anti-state and Terrorism charges were brought against the

journalists• Erdoğan has charged at least 5 journalists with defamation

suits

• Police are the biggest threat, they are targeting the press, especially during the protests• Resulting in equipment loss, physical threats, raids,

assaults, imprisonment, and obstruction• Police do not fear being held accountable• Government calls some journalists “terrorists”

Indicators of Islamic Political Subversion Tactics

• In addition to democratic reforms the AKP party instituted Islamic reforms meant to address an apparent lack of Islamic values, reforms such as• 85,000 Mosques to date or 1 for every 300 people• 90,000 Imams• Reinstated Imam-Hatip religious schools• New 4000 government sponsored official Quran courses • Sunni Islam teachings in school• Spending on the Turkish Directorate of Religious affairs has

risen dramatically• 2002 Budget was 553 Trillion, has risen to 2.7 Quadrillion in

just 4 years of AKP rule*

Political Predictions

• If Turkey becomes radicalized with Muslim ideology:• The extremist elements in power are met with a counter

movement, and civil violence/war breaks out in the country • The extremist elements in power sever ties with Western

democracies• Resulting in loss of European Union (EU) bid • NATO membership may be jeopardized• Turkey may turn to political alignment with Iran, which would

impact US relationship• Invasion of neighboring countries, like Cyprus in order to gain

control of newly discovered oil• This would lead to strained diplomatic relations for the

United States with countries in the region• Israel is already on course to align with Cyprus- this will lead to

better strategic positioning for Israel• This will also create tensions and increase the likelihood

for conflict

Political What-if Scenario

What if extremist elements were to take over Turkey?

• The fragile relationship between Cyprus and Turkey would be shattered

• Ethnic cleavages would encourage internal dispute• Increased violence at borders• Civil war

• The drive for natural resources would push extremist-Turkey to take control of Cyprus

• Turkey may experience a breakdown in relations between EU and NATO

• Increased tensions throughout the region and within Turkey

• Loss of strategic access point for US and NATO

Erdoğan Approval Rating Faltering, Indicator of Political Discontent

• Pew Research Poll shows that Erdoğan is losing favor among the more secular groups of people • 2011- after sweeping victories for the AKP- confidence in

Erdoğan was very high

• 2013- his policies, are falling out of favor with the secular population

• Secular/religious divide• It should be noted that the popularity poll was done prior to

the protests, and military action currently plaguing the country.

• Pew Research also found that Erdoğan is losing favor with people living in Istanbul

• Urban/rural divide • His favorability is at risk- especially with the younger

generation of Turks

Erdoğan Approval RatingLosing Favor

Confidence 2011 Losing Popularity

Pew Research, Global Attitudes Project: Erdogan more popular among devout muslims. (2013). Retrieved from http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2013/06/6-4-2013-4-49-20-PM.png

Pew Research Center. (2011, June 7). On eve of elections, a more upbeat mood in turkey. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Pew Research Global Attitudes Project: http://www.pewglobal.org/2011/06/07/on-eve-of-elections-a-more-upbeat-mood-in-turkey/

The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey

• Islam developed not only as a religious movement but as a political force• The Quran provides practitioners with the “Straight Path” or

Sharia, Islamic Law• 1924-1926 Sharia Law system was officially abolished in

Turkey

• “Turkification of Islam”• Progressive reforms to Islam in order to mold the religion to

fit the national Turkish identity• Translate Quran to Turkish rather than Arabic• Prayers were spoken in Turkish

• Turkey has dense networks of Sufi Islamists • Philosophically based • Spread through storytellers, poets, philosophers

The Rise of Political Islam in TurkeyContinued

• The Turkish middle class movements have promoted Islamic identity through new ‘identity spaces’

•Internet, social media, journals, news media and education

• Kemalism was established to secularize the state and create a feeling of nationalism

• Backlash of movement has been the failure (due to military) to incorporate civil society and democracy

• State is effectively more important than the citizenry

• In order to connect with the Islamic foundations of the country, Turkey officially established “Turkish-Islamic synthesis"

• This increased the budget for the Directorate of Religious Affairs, and began promoting religious activity

Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

• 1948- NATO was established as a defense to growing Soviet threat after the WWII

• 1952- Turkey joined alliance seeking to strengthen its defense policy

• Geopolitical significance made Turkey an important regional power

• Turkey carried out duties as a member of NATO through the Cold War and the Korean War

• Since the 1980’s, Turkey has been involved in a number of defense issues• Terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)• Imia/Kardak Crisis on the Aegean Sea • Internal conflicts in the Balkans• Gulf War

Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with NATO

continued

• Later half of 1990’s- Turkey shifted its national security policy into a more restrained civilian policy

• Following the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center- Turkey shared a common focus on terrorism • Tensions rose in the USA when the Turkish Parliament

refused to send Turkish troops to Iraq in 2003 creating conflict within NATO

• Turkey’s shifting focus to the Middle East • Effectively pushed their EU ally aside

• jeopardizing membership

• NATO is concerned• New Strategic Concept (2010)• Pro-Islamic Justice and Development (AKP)

Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with NATO

continued

• Turkey believes the integration of all Western Balkan countries in Euro-Atlantic structures is key to lasting peace and stability in the region

• In terms of military, Turkey is going to be a serious problem for NATO if extremists come to power

• This will have consequences for NATO• Without use of the Turkish straits there will be issues with

Russia and Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia

Key Turkish Political Figures

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Prime Minister• Raised in a devout Muslim family• Mayor of Istanbul 1994-1998• Chairman of the AKP• Served a prison term for reciting religious poems

during a public address• Commenced EU membership negotiations during his

tenure• Instituted many reforms

• Brought the countries inflation under control

Key Political Figures

Abdullah Gül

President• Member of the Welfare Party• Founding member of the AKP Party• 1991: Elected to Parliament• 2002-2003: Served as Prime Minister• 2003-2007: Served as Foreign Minister

President

Abdullah Gül• 2007 - Voters back plan to have presidents elected

by, popular vote rather than Parliament• Nominated presidential candidate in 2007 by, Prime

Minister Erdoğan • May 2007 - Gül’s first bid for presidency was blocked

by Constitutional Court over his secular views and past membership in the Welfare Party.

• August 2007 - Gül was elected as the 11th President, after the AKP party won control of the Parliament• Gül was the first openly devout Muslim President in modern

Turkish history

Justice and Development Party (AKP)

• Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi • Developed out of the Welfare Party by, Abdullah Gül

and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in 1997• They did not want their party to be solely based on Islam-

they wanted to focus on democratic ideals • Approach appealed to a much wider audience

• Fairly new to the political game in 2002, the party was able to gain an absolute majority in the Parliament by taking advantage of the economic crisis of 1999-2001

• The party is viewed with suspicion by some segments of the electorate, since they have strong Islamic ties, and their policy output tends to lean toward Islamic based ideals.

Justice and Development Party (AKP)

• AKP has clear Islamic roots• Party founded by Erdoğan• Came to power in 2002

• The main election promise was to gain EU status

• Only party in Turkish history to win 3 elections• Has been considered moderate pro-Western party• Favored a moderate approach to religious tolerance

• In recent times the party has evolved to become more steeped in Islamic traditions

• Embraces Capitalism • Party's agenda is conservative capitalism• Their approach is often called Political Islam

AKP Political Goals

• To accomplish social reforms the AKP in 2002 established two primary goals*• Instituted democratic social reforms that were more in line

with EU standards which appealed to the Turkish underclass

• With these democratic reforms EU membership appeared more likely which also earned Erdogan support from

• Business• Academic• Middle Class

• In addition, other reforms were instituted in line with EU memberships guidelines• Reform of the Judicial system• Civil relations to the military• Human rights

AKP Consolidating Power

• To consolidate these political gains the AKP leaders established policies of reform that appealed to the masses such as:• Social reforms

• Creating a national agreement to address• Health care• Housing• Education• Increased improvised infrastructure• Minority rights

• Refused to challenge secularism• Accepted secularism and decided to work with the secularist

• Created reforms to address the failing economy

AKP Consolidating Power continued

• The party has been at odds with the military and Judicial branch over secularism

• Won the popular vote in 2011 by almost ½ and its 3rd consecutive election

• The party also consolidated its authority over the military• Many senior military staffers resigned or retired early• Some active duty generals were jailed for plotting against

the government

• Has no problems in relations with the US

Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK)• Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK) known in English

as the Kurdistan Workers Party• Formed to win rights to develop an independent

Kurdish state• One of the world’s largest “stateless” populations• Approximately 30 million Kurds live between Turkey, Iraq,

Syria and parts of Armenia• Today their goal is to have self-rule within a Turkish state

• Labeled as a terrorist group by the US government and Turkey with approximately 3-5,000 members

• Turkey views the group as a direct threat to their national security• Turkey has lifted their ban on speaking Kurdish, and allows

them some broadcasting capabilities• Some cultural expressions are still forbidden by the state

Executive Branch

• Executive:• President direct election- 5 year term• Cabinet- Council of ministers, the Prime Minister appointed

by the President from members of Parliament

• Chief of State: President Abdullah GÜL, elected August 28th, 2007

• Head of Government: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ERDOĞAN appointed by the President in March 2003• No term limits

Transparency, Accountability & Corruption

• The graph on the following slide will outline some of the issues that are facing the current administration in Turkey

• Higher values are indicative of better governance. Rank is an average between the lower and upper percentiles

• Turkey’s governance falls between the lower percentile countries and the median percentile.

Transparency and Corruption

Legislative Branch

• Unicameral Grand National Assembly of Turkey• 550 seats• Members elected by popular vote every five years• Closed List Proportional electoral system

• Does not allow citizens to directly choose candidates, rather they vote for the party of their choice and the party wins a percentage of seats based on the number of votes

• Last elections held June 2011• Percentage of Vote, by party

• AKP-49.8%• CHP-25.9• MHP-13• Independents-6.6• Other-4.7


Legislature• No codes of

conduct• Low integrity, leads

to lack of trust in government

• The law for the most part is in place- however in practice nepotism, cronyism, and patronage take center stage.

Fagan, C. (2011). Eu anti-corruption requirements: Measuring progress in albania, kosovo, fyr macedonia, and turkey.Transparency International, (p. 9). Retrieved July 8, 2013 from website: archive.transparency.org/content/download/61620/987345/CIMAP_For Web.pdf

Judicial Branch

Judiciary: Independent Civil Law• Consists of 5 judicial bodies

• Constitutional Court• Responsible for constitutional review in all legal matters

• Also functions as the Supreme Criminal Court

• High Court of Appeals• Examines rulings by lower court bodies

• Council of State• Reviews rulings by administrative courts

• Court of Accounts• Responsible for auditing all Turkish government fiscal matters

• Military High Court of Appeals• Reviews rulings by military courts

• Military High Administrative court• Exercises jurisdiction over military personnel


Judiciary • Lack of transparency

• Court decisions are only open to the subject involved and their representation.

• High Board of Judges and Prosecutors• Created to act as

independent judicial review- not open to public review or any other control mechanism

Fagan, C. (2011). Eu anti-corruption requirements: Measuring progress in albania, kosovo, fyr macedonia, and turkey.Transparency International, (p. 7). Retrieved July 8, 2013 from website: archive.transparency.org/content/download/61620/987345/CIMAP_For Web.pdf

Turkey- Candidate Country for Membership in the European Union (EU)

• Turkey would benefit from economic advantages associated with trade within EU, as well as direct funding from the EU budget for overall economic prosperity (see graph)

• Turkey’s involvement with European integration dates back to 1959 • Ankara Association Agreement

(1963) for the progressive establishment of a Customs Union (1995)

• EU declared Turkey eligible for membership bid in 1997

EU Candidacy continued

• Turkey must make fundamental changes that will affect all sectors of the country, defined by EU body of law (the acquis)

• 2006- EU expressed concern over restrictions on the free movement of goods

• Unresolved problems/obstacles to membership:• Armenia, (Armenian Genocide)• Kurdish question • Cyprus issue

• Turkey’s focus on the Middle East and the pro-Islamic background of the AKP may lead to a pan-Islamic movement, jeopardizing EU membership

The Refugee Problem

Syrian Refugees• Sunni Syrians are fleeing their war-torn country• Border towns in Turkey welcomed refugees

• There are growing frustrations with their presence and growing numbers

• Approximately, half a million Syrian refugees in Turkey

• Number continues to grow• Border guards are pushing back thousands of refugees

daily• The cost is now hitting the $1 billion dollar mark for

the country• Local Turks complain rents are going up and wages

are being driven down by the Syrian presence

The Refugee ProblemContinued

Syrian Refugees• Cultural and religious differences are igniting in

many border towns• Reyhanli• Antakya

• May 11, 2013- violence against the growing Syrian population peaked in Reyhanli

• 53 people were killed in a twin car bomb attack

The Refugee Problemcontinued

Detailed illustrations showing influx of refugees

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2013, May). Refugee crisis worsens. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Gulf News: http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/us-slams-delivery-of-russian-anti-ship-missiles-1.1184990

Scenario

• The succeeding sections of the analysis will be dedicated to exploring the possible implications of the following questions:• If and when Turkey is taken over by extremists factions,

what will be the consequences to United States’ interest in this region of the world?

Civil War/ Internal Violence

Socio-political Cleavages• Ethnic Groups

• Turkish 70-75%• Kurdish 18%• Other 7-12%

• Rich v. Poor• Rural v. Urban• Modern v. Traditional• Religious v. Secular

Civil War/ Internal Violence

• Islamic Roots could invite extreme groups • Muslim Brotherhood or Al-Qaeda • Encourage violence in the state

• Syrian border violence would increase • Border towns would see increased levels of violence• May spread through the country like a plague

• Erdoğan or the extreme group that takes over may increase rhetoric• Encourage these cleavages to turn on each other

• Resulting in violent uprisings from all sides of the country

Sever Ties with Western Democracy

• If extremist elements, such as radical Islamic groups, take control of Turkey the results could be detrimental to political diplomacy efforts between the more westernized democracies

• Groups that could be impacted • European Union • NATO

• We may see a political realignment in terms of strengthened partnership with countries like Iran

Unbridled Invasion

• Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

• 1974 Invasion• Recognized by Turkey alone• UN established a buffer zone

between north and south• Southern Cyprus is a member of

the EU

• Turkey has begun encroaching on southern Cyprus territory

• Exploratory gas drilling off the coast- The gas lies within the Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

• Tensions are on the rise as ethnic differences become center-stage for dispute

Consequences

• If extremist elements were to take over Turkey the fragile relationship between Cyprus and Turkey would be shattered

• Ethnic cleavages would encourage internal dispute

• The drive for natural resources would push extremist-Turkey to take control of the country

Consequences

• United States based company, Noble Energy has taken the lead to help southern Cyprus with drilling

• This oil would aid not only Cyprus’ economy and geopolitical positioning but also the United States and the European Union

• The United States would most assuredly wish to act to protect their investments and a fellow democratic state

• Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

•Cyprus made a deal with Israel in defiance of Turkey concerning oil development•Turkey believes this deal is in violation of their rights in Northern Cyprus

• Leads to potential political alignment with Israel

•Political and military consequences for Israel with more solid flyover air space abilities

•Tensions in this region will increase- potential for conflict grows

Consequences

• Civil war in Turkey would seriously damage regional economies including close allies to the United States like- Israel

• Turkey serves as a strategic access point to the Middle East for both the US and NATO• Internal fracture would hurt the US and their ability to

access this very important region in the Middle East

• Turkey has long served as an example to many Muslim countries in the area • Their fall could create more strife/chaos throughout the

region

Consequences

• Resulting in loss of European Union bid• Turkey has already threatened to sever ties with the EU on

multiple occasions• Cyprus and Israel differences

• Turkey’s leadership has become defensive toward the EU in regards to their response to protests

• If extreme elements take power in Turkey, they may continue this trend and sever all ties with the EU

• NATO membership may be called into question• During the Georgia War, Turkey began to move away from

NATO and toward becoming a more solitary power• If an extremist element took power, they may distance

themselves from organizations like this citing philosophical differences

Consequences

• Turkey may turn to political alignment with Iran, which would impact US relationship

• Up until 2011 Turkey and Iran had a productive relationship• Ties became strained because of differences in opinion

• Arab Spring• NATO • Rising regional competition • Iran refused to discuss nuclear issues

• This could easily be reversed especially if Turkey severs ties with the EU and NATO.

• The regional partnership would be a threat to democracy in the region

Presented by, Darcy Pitkin and Kyle Leisner

Agenda

• Summary• Key Economic Indicators• Predictions• What If Scenario• Supporting History• Economic Organization• Consequences

Economic

Economic SummaryCurrent Concerns

• Turkey continues to be denied full membership into the EU

• May 2013, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced intentions to taper $85 billion in bonds that they buy each month. This will leave countries with high-current-account deficits like Turkey particularly vulnerable.

• May 2013, the Lira hit its lowest value against the U.S. dollar in 17 months

Economic SummaryCurrent Concerns

• Political unrest, citizen protest can reduce foreign confidence with future investment considerations

• Since the demonstrations started, the Istanbul stock market is down 10 percent and interest rates are up about 50 percent.

• PM Erdoğan’s paranoia concerning the protests have caused him to accuse Koç for conspiring with protesters. His claims that Koç “cooperated with terrorists” could reduce their continued substantial investment in the nation.

Economic Key Indicators

• Key economic indicators • Economic growth rate is declining

• A departure from the boom over last ten years

• Private sector borrowing is heavy in 2013 • Indicator of some concern over near future government

control of the economy

• Suspected increase in use of the Hawala system • Decrease in Turkish stock market • Down 10% this year

• Government alienation of the secular private sector • Erdogan’s accusations of terrorism towards Koc Holding

Company

Economy in an Extremist TurkeyPredictions

• If Turkey were to become an extremist, radical Islamic nation:• Turkey’s economy would face:

• Tourism decline

• Withdrawal of international borrowing/investment

• Inability to pay existing loans/debt problems

• Halt to oil transport development

• Loss of trade agreements

• EU Isolation

• Decline of Koç

• United States economy would face:• Termination of trade partnership

• Loss of oil access opportunities

• Imposition of economic sanctions to Turkey and other supporter nations

• Strengthening of Iran/Turkey/Russia strategic bond

What if Turkey becomes extremist

Tourism• Turkey’s tourism industry will decline

• Tourism in Egypt dropped 37% during Islamic rule, a total loss of $5 million in revenue

• 378,000 U.S. residents visited Turkey in 2011, that number will drop substantially

• U.S. Department of State will issue travel warning advising of potential safety concerns and/or terrorist threats.

• Radical Islamic rule will likely bring bans to alcohol and the summer attire that westerners seek on a vacation.

What if Turkey becomes extremistContinued

Debt• Default of Private Sector debt (U.S. & European)

lenders• $431 billion net external debt which accounts for 51% of

GDP

• $221 billion in borrowing this year alone

• Several of the international loans are short-term• If Turkey becomes extremist, these lenders can leave

quickly and not return.

• Result: currency crisis, collapse of property market and a threat to the stability of Turkey’s banks.

What if Turkey becomes extremistContinued

Hawala Usage • Hawala use increases during conflict situations where central

authority is either non-existent or weak

• In a radical Turkey, government distrust and a desire to avoid the government reporting requirements of formal financial institutions will heighten

• Turkey’s formal financial institutions will experience an economic decline from decreased lending

• The use of Hawalas for financing terrorist financing will increase

• The Hawala system will continue to be used for Iran/Turkey transactions out of the eyes of the U.S.

EconomicGeneral Statistics

• National Budget:• Revenues: $179.9 Billion

• Expenditure: $200.4 Billion

• -2.6% Deficit

• Gross Domestic Product $ 1.125 Trillion • Ranked 17th in the World

• Major Economic Sectors:• Service: 63% of GDP

• Industry: 28.1% of GDP

• Agriculture: 8.9% of GDP• (2012 estimated)

Economic Labor Force Statistics

Labor Force Demographics:

• Overall Labor Force: 27.11 Million People

• Unemployment Rate: 9% (2012 estimate)

• Labor Force Rate Per Sector:

Services: 48.4 %

Industry: 26.2%

Agriculture: 25.5% (2010 estimate)

EconomicSector Outputs

Primary Agricultural Outputs

• tobacco, cotton, grain, olives, sugar beets, hazelnuts, pulses, citrus, livestock

Primary Service Outputs

• tourism, wholesale and retail trade, transport, financial services, education, healthcare, real estate.

Primary Industrial Outputs

• textiles, food processing, autos, electronics, mining (coal, chromate, copper, boron), steel, petroleum, construction, lumber, paper

Economic Sector Outputs

• Agricultural Output• Turkey is the world leader in the production of dried figs,

hazelnuts, sultanas/raisins and dried apricots.

• Turkey has the largest milk and dairy production in its region

• The total exports of agricultural products (including processed foods) reached $12 billion in 2010

• Agricultural Output Goals by 2023• $150 billion agricultural GDP

• $40 billion in agricultural exports

• Becoming one of the top 5 countries in terms of agricultural production

• Ranking number 1 in fisheries as compared with the EU


• Tourism as a Service Output• Turkey ranked the 7th and 6th most visited country in the

world respectively in 2009 and 2010.

• Turkey received $21.3 billion of tourism revenue in 2009, and $20.8 billion in 2010.

• Tourism Goals for 2023• Be among the top five countries in the world in terms of

attracting the highest number of tourists and receiving the highest amount of tourism revenue


• Petroleum/Oil as an Industry Output• Turkey only produces approximately 270 million barrels

from the Hakkari Basin (2011)

• National consumption was approximately 706,000 barrels per day

• 90% of their oil is imported

• May have other reserves in the Black Sea

• TPAO ( Turkey’s National Petroleum Organization) is working with Exxon (U.S.) and Petrobras (Brazil) to explore

• Koç owned Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri (TUPRS) will also construct a new $2.7 billion unit upgrade in November 2014 at its Izmit plant that will cut the country’s fuel-import bill by $1 billion a year and allow its four refineries to work at 90% of capacity.


• Turkey plays a bigger role as a conduit of oil • Is considered the crossroads of oil between the east and

west as well as the north and south

• Significant volumes of Russian and Caspian oil are being sent by tanker via the Turkish Straits to Western markets

• A terminal on Turkey's Mediterranean coast at Ceyhan facilitates oil exports from northern Iraq via a pipeline from Kirkuk and from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline

• Several bypass routes for Caspian oil via the Bosporus Straits have been proposed in Turkey


Turkey: Crossroads of OilThe proposed and existing pipelines, ports of entry and transportation routes for oil in Turkey

Kandiyoti, R. (2011, January). Pipeline chess across the black sea. Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Le Monde diplomatique(English Edition): http://mondediplo.com/blogs/pipeline-chess-across-the-black-sea


• Nabucco pipeline

• Western/U.S. Oil/Gas Interests: European Union-backed

• 3,300-kilometer (pipeline between Turkey and Austria scheduled for completion by 2014.

• Designed to transport up to 193 billion barrels of gas annually.

• Will increase gas supply to Europe independent, of Russia; expand the Southern Corridor capacity; and possibly transport abundant Turkmen gas to Europe, onto the United States.

Çimen, S. (2009, June 1). Energy and energy security: Turkey's role. Retrieved July 10, 2013, from American Turkish Council: http://www.the-atc.org/events/c09/content/presentations/A2-Cimen-Selahattin-MinistryOfEnergy.pdf

Economic Debt

• Overall Public Debt Rate: 40.4% of GDP• Was approximately 78% of GDP when PM Erdoğan came to

power in 2003.

• Turkey currently has no outstanding debt to the International Monetary fund. • In 2002 owed IMF $23.5 billion• Made final payment to IMF in May 2013 for a $412 million

loan.

• Turkey’s private sector has began to borrow heavily.• Current net external debt is for private sector $413 billion, or

nearly 51% of the country’s GDP.

Economic Hawala

• Hawala = Trust in Arabic

• Traditional Islamic method of exchanging money used frequently in Turkey

• A funds transfer system based on personal trust-no receipts, no audit trails, no banks

• A money transfer without money movement

• Registration is often required but most operate on the black market.

• In Turkey from 1981-2000, 17% of transfers went unrecorded

• Is used as a channel for terrorist financing, money laundering, drug trafficking

• This system is also used by 40% of Turkish exports to Iran

• This method used by Turkish businessmen called “Anatolian Tigers” circumvent the formal data tracked by U.S. relating to sanctions for supporting Iran.

Economic Economic Timeline

• 1990’s-Economic Turmoil • (series of coalition governments with weak economic

policies, leading to high-inflation & boom-and-bust cycles)

• 2001-Economic Recession • (deep economic downturn , GNP fell 9.5% in 2001, and

unemployment significantly increased)

Economic Economic Timeline

• 2001-May 2013- Steady Growth• good monetary and fiscal policies and structural economic

reforms made with the support of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank)

• 2002-2007- 6% Average Economic Growth, one of the highest sustained rates of growth in the world.

• Recent Growth Rates:• 2010, 2011-9% Economic Growth

• 2012-2% Economic Growth

• 2013-3-4% Economic Growth (estimated)

Economic Foreign Investment/Trade

Central Intelligence Agency. (2013, May 15). The World Factbook: Turkey. Retrieved July 2, 2013, from CIA.gov: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tu.html

EconomicForeign Investment/Trade

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Investment Support and Promotion Agency. (2013). Invest in turkey. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from The Republic of Turkey PrimeMinistry - Investment Support and Promotion Agency: http://www.invest.gov.tr/en-US/Pages/Home.aspx

Economic Foreign Investment/Trade

• Turkey ranks as the world’s 13th most attractive destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2012, according to the A.T. Kearney FDI Confidence Index.

• Has Bilateral Investment Agreements with 82 Countries

• Country remains heavily dependent upon capital inflows (foreign investment)

• Foreign investor confidence is key for continued economic growth for the nation

Economic Foreign Investment/TradeContinued

• Has a Customs Union Agreement with the EU • Not a full member of the EU

• Has Trade/Cooperation Agreements with 28 Countries

• Has Free Trade Agreements with 29 countries

Economic U.S. Investment & Trade Relations

• Turkey has several bilateral investment and tax treaties in place, some of which are with the United States,

• Guarantee free repatriation of capital in convertible currencies and eliminate double taxation.

• Ex. FSECC (Framework for Strategic Economic & Commercial Cooperation )-Formed in 2009

• 2009-2011, U.S. exports to Turkey increased 106%

• 2010-2011 U.S. FDI in Turkey nearly tripled (385 million to 1.4 billion)


• Over 1,200 U.S. companies now operate in Turkey –a 50% increase since 2007

• Many new successful joint ventures between U.S. and Turkish firms. • Are designed to manufacture innovative products in Turkey

for both domestic production and export to third country markets.

• Examples: • General Electric invested $900 million in 2012,

• AmGen made a $700 million acquisition

• 3M announced a $500 million project.


• Other Turkey/U.S. joint ventures:• Near Zero Zone

• A Turkish project focused on cost-effective energy efficiency upgrades in which the U.S. has assisted with.

• U.S. provides technical training to industrial managers and has shared new efficiency technology.

• Movement to Enhance Opportunities & FATIH Project

• American company investment in education by bringing high speed internet access to classrooms.

• U.S. is also working with Turkey on improving healthcare, pharmaceuticals, information & communication technology, intellectual property rights, and agriculture.

Economic Role of Koç Holding Company

• Largest company headquartered in Turkey

• Secularist operation

• The company operates in five main segments of Turkey’s industries: • Energy

• Automotive

• Consumer

• Finance

• Other

• Accounts for 6% of Turkey’s economic output

Economy in an Extremist TurkeyU.S. Oil Interests

Consequences

• U.S. will lose access to Turkey’s oil transportation capabilities• Nabucco pipeline construction will likely cease

• A Turkey will likely strengthen oil ties with Iran & Russia, the United States will lose out on Turkey’s strategic link to this scarce resource.• Turkey currently maintains strong oil ties with Radical

Islamic nations or Islam friendly nations

• 44% of its oil is imported from Iran

• 40% of its oil is imported from Russia

• Construction of Gazprom-backed South Stream gas pipeline through Turkey-supported by Russia

Economy in an Extremist Turkey

U.S. Sanctions• Under legislation signed by President Barack Obama

in December 2011, the U.S. will take action against countries that continue buying large volumes of Iranian oil

• Turkey, a major purchaser of Iran’s oil, was granted exemption from this sanction.

• If Turkey becomes an extremist nation, the exemption will likely lifted by the U.S.

Economy in an Extremist Turkey U.S. Investment/Trade Relations

• If Turkey becomes an extremist Islamic nation the U.S. may cease their economic relationship with them.• $1.4 billion in FDI by the U.S. potentially will disappear.

• FSECC to facilitate trade relations will discontinue

• Elimination of imports and exports between nation

• Withdrawal of U.S. corporate investment (1,200 companies including 3M, GE, Pfizer…)

• No collaboration on industrial & technological improvement (Near zero zone)

• No investment in social improvements (FATIH)

Economy in an Extremist TurkeyEU Interests

• Turkey’s desire for full EU admission would be denied.• Possible revocation of EU Customs Agreement

• WIthdrawal of Major Western European trade agreements.• Italy, Germany, UK, France

• Threat of U.S. sanctions may cause other EU members less sensitive to extremist nation relations to pull out of trade agreements.

Economy in an Extremist TurkeyImpact on Koç Hold Company

• Koç Holding Company accounts for 6% of Turkey’s total economic output.• Secular corporation.

• Accused by Erdogan of “cooperating with terror” and supporting the liberal protesters.

• Koç in an extremist Turkey may face major business declines, boycotts and even prosecution.• Koç’s shares dropped 17% during month of protests, will

continue to decline in an extremist state.

• Turkey has a history of prosecuting and fining corporations for “anti-government” conspiracies. Koç could be next victim.

• Koç’s financial collaborations with U.S. corporations (Ford) would end.

Economy in an Extremist TurkeyConclusions

• It is likely that Turkey’s economy will collapse as an extremist nation.• 10 years of economic growth will be undone

• Revenue from tourism and oil transportation will be reduced

• Foreign direct investment will disappear

• Secular corporations (foreign and domestic) will leave

• Debt will go unpaid

• Poverty and starvation will increase

• Turkey lacks the industrial and agricultural resources to be self-sufficient.

Presented by, Ekow Ocran and Enzi Jaureguui

Agenda

• Summary• Key Military Indicators• Predictions• What-If Scenario• Supporting History• Turkish Military Organization

Consequences

MILITARY

Jay Kippen

Pending delete

Jay Kippen

Might delete

Jay Kippen

Repeated Info, DO NOT DELETE will use in other area

Military Summary

The primary role of the military in Turkey is to maintain and protect the secular ideology founded by, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk • The Turkish political/military relationship is a unique

situation since the military's responsibility is to safeguard against internal struggle.• If one party comes to power and attempts to change the

secular ideals of Kemalism, the military will step in and remove the leader (military coup)

• Once the military overthrows the leader, the military will return governmental authority to the person they have chosen*

Military SummaryContinued

• One of the largest standing militaries in NATO with the exception of the US

• Key member of NATO due to strategic location and geopolitical atmosphere• Hosts US and NATO bases

• Military industrial complex has evolved and is now capable of producing its own armaments, but prefers to co-produce items with other nations• Israel• France• Germany• South Korea


• Most conflicts involved acting in conjunctive effort with world powers- US, UN, NATO• Last major contribution

• Korea 1950

• Involved fighting domestic terrorism PKK• Only military involvement acted on independently

• Cyprus 1974

• Considered major ally in War on Terror


• Overall Military budget cut almost in half since 2000• Military expenditures saw a steady decrease

• 2000-2005

• Increased Military expenditures slightly • 2006-2012

• Top military commander • Necdet Özel • Appointed by Erdoğan• Supports Islamic ideology

• Initiated many military coups • 1960• 1972• 1980• 1997

Key Military Indicators

• Continued AKP infiltration of pro-Islamic military officers into current ranks

• Continued persecution of military officers in authority to direct a coup

• Ongoing demonstrations concerning US military bases

• Concerning the expulsion of US bases

• Gradual overall decline in military budget

• Reduced military expenditures

Predictions• Turkish and Cyprus conflict will increase tensions

throughout the region

• Involvement of NATO into conflict

• Loss of NATO membership

• Possibility of open conflict with NATO countries

• Loss of membership

• Voluntarily or forced

• Turkish Military Coup

• Resulting in interim government

• Possibility of disrupting stability and growth

• More pressure on US military bases

• Violence will ignite near and around military bases stemming out of protests

• The US military will be forced out of country

PredictionsContinued

• Civil war will cause more problems with the PKK

• PKK will become more bold and violent

• Kurdish PKK may try to declare independence

• US may choose to actively assist the PKK

• Turkey and Iran will become allies

• Both countries will have fundamental Islamic governments in power

• This will cut off Europe from the Middle East.

What-If Scenario

What if extremists come to power in Turkey?

• Possible loss of strategic NATO ally • NATO bases may be removed or lost completely

• European security will be jeopardized

• Regional military stabilization efforts will be affected

• Regional projection of U.S. military power will be curtailed

• Loss of strategic U.S. military bases on Turkish soil

• War on Terror will be affected

• Missile defense shield

What-If Scenario

What if extremists come to power in Turkey?

• Turkish-Cyprus conflict• Israel may align militarily with Cyprus

• NATO military involvement on Cyprus' behalf

• Military cooperation with Israel will be affected• Loss of Israeli military's ability to fly over Turkish airspace

Identification of key military assets for U.S. Interests

NATO:• NATO Patriot missile batteries- Adana• Command center for missile defense radar: Diyarbakir• Missile defense radar location- Kurecik base• Partnership for Peace Training center Command• Center of Excellence-Defense Against Terrorism• Allied Lan- Izmir

U.S.• Incirlik Air Base

• U.S. Office of Defense Cooperation

• U.S. is involved in all of NATO's interests as well

US Air Bases

Izmir Air Base

• Major strategic military hub for strategic projection of US Air power in the Middle East

• Joint US Turkish Base

• Supports major US assets • 425th Air Base Squadron

• NATO CC 6th Allied Tactical Air Force

US Air Bases

Incirlik Air Base

• Second Major US military hub for strategic projection of US airpower in the Middle East

• Under joint US and Turkish control

• Major US military assets• 39th Air Base Wing

• 728th Air Mobility Squadron

• 385th Air Expeditionary Group

US and NATO Bases in Turkey

Zanotti, J. (2013, June 21). Turkey: Background and u.s. relations. Retrieved July 12, 2013 from The Federation of American Scientists: www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R41368.pdf

Turkish Military Budget

Military expenditures have shown a steady decrease 2000-2005

Gürleyen, I., Sinav, G., Şimşek, R., Karabiyik, S., & Tanriöven, A. (2008). Turkey - eu relations. (p. 6). Retrieved July 15, 2013, from European Union Research and Application Center: Izmir University of Economics: http://ekoab.ieu.edu.tr/eng/wp-content/military_budgets.pdf

Turkish Military Budget

Military expenditures remained steady at 2.5% of GDP 2006-2012

Sönmez, M. (2013, April 27). Can the peace process cut the high security budget? Retrieved July16, 2013, from Hurriyet Daily News: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/can-the-peace-process-cut-the-high-security-budget.aspx?PageID=238&NID=45740&NewsCatID=344

Turkish Foreign Aid

Recent decline in foreign aid request

Zanotti, J. (2013, June 21). Turkey: Background and u.s. relations. (p. 23). Retrieved July 12, 2013, from The Federation of American Scientists: www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R41368.pdf

Turkish Military OrganizationSupreme Command

• Abdullah Gül

• Supreme Military Commander

• Turkish President

• İsmet Yılmaz• Minister of National Defense

• Appointed 6 July 2011 by, Prime Minister Erdoğan

• Member of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)

• Has same religious ideology (Islam) as Erdoğan

Turkish Military OrganizationSupreme Command

Continued

• Necdet Özel• Commander of the Turkish military

• Chief of the General Staff

• Came to power after previous military purge

• Appointment "marks the end of an era during which top military commanders saw themselves as self-appointed guardians of the regime"

Turkish Military CompositionContinued

• Troop Strength • Active Military Personnel: 510,000

• Reserve Personnel: 378,700

• Paramilitary Personnel: 152,200

• Service Branches• Turkish Army

• Turkish Air Force

• Turkish Navy

• Turkish Coast Guard

Globalfirepower.com. (2012, December 4). Turkey maintains one of the largest militaries on the asian continent. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Global Fire Power: http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Turkey

Turkish Military compositionContinued

• Land Systems• Armor

• including tanks and armored fighting vehicles • mostly modern equipment• Total armour strength approx. 12,000

• Artillery• Including Self-Propelled, towed and MLRS• Mostly modern • Total Artillery approx 3000

• Logistical Vehicles: 23,691

• Air Power• Total Aircraft: 1,512• Helicopters: 570

Globalfirepower.com. (2012, December 4). Turkey maintains one of the largest militaries on the asian continent. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Global Fire Power: http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Turkey

Turkish Military OrganizationContinued

• Naval Power• Total Strength: 183• Aircraft Carriers: 0• Frigates: 17• Destroyers: 0• Corvettes: 7• Submarines: 14• Coastal Craft: 43• Mine Warfare: 20• Amphibious Assault:

45

• Logistical• Labor Force: 26,690,000

• Merchant Marine Strength: 629

• Major Ports and Terminals: 9

• Roadway Coverage: 352,046

• Serviceable Airports: 98

Turkish Defense Industry

• Turkey's economic and military industrial complex was traditionally insufficient to produce sophisticated weapons like those of Western Europe

• AKP's priority is to emphasize development of Turkey's domestic arms industry

• The Turkish defense industry • Employs ~50,000 at 110 firms

• Most are state owned

• About 1,000 additional firms are subcontracted

Turkish Defense IndustryContinued

• Makina ve Kimya Endustrisi Kurumu (MKEK)• Controlled by Ministry of Industry and Trade

• 12,000 employees

• Largest producer of weaponry in Turkey

• MKEK meets the requirements of the Turkish armed forces for light arms

• Including the M-3 and MG-3 rifles which are of German design

• Ammunition and explosives

• Producer of antiaircraft and antitank guns

Turkish Defense IndustryContinued

• Most domestically produced military projects are made in cooperation with allied foreign nations • Local development of defense items is preferred

• Ankara prefers co-development agreements

• Turkey's domestic tank relies on a co-production deal with South Korea's Hyundai

• The attack helicopter is a co-production agreement with AgustaWestland

Noted Discontent Over U.S. Bases

• Previous discord between US and Turkish areas of interest has resulted in strained relationships

• Turkey has demonstrated control using U.S. Turkish bases as leverage for political purposes

• Key areas of concern

• Turkish- Cyprus conflict

• Turkish government decided to close down all the American bases on its territory

• Only two active US bases remain

• US-Turkish jointly controlled• Izmir

• Incirlik

Turkish-Cyprus Conflict

• Major issue affecting U.S. and Turkish relationship if Turkey becomes radicalized • Israel

• May align militarily with Cyprus

• Recently become intertwined in oil dealings with Cyprus

• Turkey believes they have claim to this resource

• If Turkey becomes radical Israeli and Turkish relationship may suffer and ultimately resort to military action

• NATO

• Loss of Turkey may result in NATO military action on behalf of Cyprus

Turkish Conflicts: 1952-1974

• 1952- Turkey joined NATO • Thereby abandoning Kemalists' neutrality policy

• 20 July 1974- Turkish troops invade Cyprus • Invasion justified as peacekeeping operation

• Claimed need to restore constitutional order was disrupted due to Greek military coup

• There was a ceasefire 3 days after invasion

• Turkish military occupied 3% of Cyprus

• 14 August 1974- Turkish military mounts another offensive despite talks being held in Geneva• Military increased hold on Cyprus to 37%

Turkish Conflicts: 1984-1990

• 1990- Turkey allows US- led coalition to launch air strikes from Turkish bases against Iraq

• Turkey amassed troops on the border with Iraq during the Gulf War

• Turkey allowed its airspace to be used by US and British forces after Gulf war

• March 2011-Turkish military engaged in Libyan crisis • Provided a submarine, frigates, two tanker aircrafts and

four F-16's under UN resolution 1973

• May 2012- Turkish military is involved in Afghanistan under UN authorized mandate • Committed 1,327 troops

Turkey and the PKK

• The PKK and Turkey have a long history of internal conflict

• Attacks by the PKK• PKK's primary targets

• Turkish Government security forces

• Local Turkish officials

• Villagers opposed to PKK

• Turkish tourist sites and hotels • Kidnapped foreign tourists in early to mid-1990s in an attempt

to damage Turkish tourist industry

• Turkish military

Turkish Internal Conflicts: 1992-1999

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)

• 1984- Launched separatist guerrilla war in southeast Turkey

• Main goal of PKK is to establish independent Kurdish state in southeast Turkey, northern Iraq and parts of Iran and Syria.

• 1992- Anti-PKK operation• 20,000 Turkish troops enter Kurdish safe havens within

Iraq

• Military intervention in Iraq was under an agreement with Saddam Hussein

Turkish Internal Conflicts: 1992-1999

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)• 1993- Turkish ceasefire with PKK broke down

• Conducted attacks on Turkish diplomatic and commercial facilities in European cities during 1993 and 1995

• 1995- Turkish military launched offensive against Kurds in Northern Iraq • Approximately 35,000 Turkish troops were committed to

the effort

• 1999- PKK leader Ocalan was captured, sentenced to death but later commuted to a life sentence

• After arrest, Ocalan started a peace initiative asking members to refrain from violence and maintain dialog with Turkish Government on PKK Issues

Turkish Conflicts: 2002-Present

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)

• 2002 PKK changed their name to Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK)

2002 PKK committed to nonviolence 2003 PKK renamed itself to Kongra-Gel (KGK)

conducted self-defense attacks and promoted peace June 2004 PKK's hard line militant wing renounced

self-imposed cease-fire for the last 5 years

• January 2012- Turkish military launched air strikes on PKK targets in Northern Iraq

• 35 civilians were killed in the strikes

Coup d'etat 1960 and 1971

• 27 May 1960- Military initiated coup • Coup not from typical military hierarchy

• Initiated by junior grade officers

• Leader of the coup was General Cemal Gursel

• 1971- Military initiated coup• Removed Turkish Prime Minister Suleyman Gundogdu

Demire

• Commanders sent memorandum to President Sunay demanding a strong and credible government capable of putting an end to what they referred to as an anarchical situation

Coup d'etat: 1980 and 1997

• 1980- Military initiated coup• Following political deadlock and civil unrest

Imposed martial law Dissolved Turkish Parliament Revoked the constitution Shutdown all political parties

• 28 February 1997- 'Postmodern Coup' • Military-dominated National Security Council issued a series of

recommendations/ultimatums to the government on actions needed to "protect secularism

• then military overthrew the coalition government led by, Necmettin Erbakan

• The military demanded Erbakan to stop or reverse policies seen as promoting Islam in government affairs.

Military Coup and Current Politics?

• Implications involved with initiating a coup and the effects on the nations people

• The current administration even with their infiltration into the military ranks fail to recognize the tension that exists between themselves and the military and therefore fail to acknowledge the threat of a coup• The Turkish military holds a significant amount of power

• They have already mounted several successful coups • If they feel the need to act there is little the current

administration can do to stop them

How will Coup affect Current Politics?

• Even though the politicians are installing high ranking officers in the military, that will not stop the military from acting:• 27 May 1960- "Purging of Group 14"

• An internal confrontation within the army

• Several low-ranking military officers overthrew the government and purged high ranking military officers

• The "young officers" were still uneasy.

• This was followed by a "coup within the coup" six months later • The military officers were sent into exile

• This shows that the military will act if they believe that it is necessary

• High ranking officers do not have supreme control, especially if the lower-ranked officers know they were placed in their position by politicians

Military’s Current Moral Crisis

• 2003-2004 During its first term in office, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) introduced several military reforms aimed at diminishing the military’s power in politics.• Erdoğan has been slowly limiting Turkeys current military

involvement in politics

• Further attempts to diminish the military’s power due to involvement in recent coups:• "Thursday, June 6, a criminal court in Ankara approved an

indictment filed by the Turkish prosecutor’s office- 102 retired military officers, including former senior commanders, and a civilian will be tried over charges of staging the "post-modern coup of Feb. 28, 1997.”

Kristell Havens

Thurs. June 6 Year???

Presented by, Jeff Sperry and Brendan Kinchia

Agenda• Summary• Key Intelligence Indicators• Predictions• What-If Scenario• Identification of Key U.S. Interests• Supporting History• Intelligence Organization• Threats• Foreign Relations• Consequences

INTELLIGENCE / CYBER SECURITY

Intelligence Summary

• Modern Turkish Intelligence activities designed along American and NATO models

• Has joint Turkish-Israeli Intelligence gathering cooperation agreement

• Turkish intelligence agencies play a key role for the NATO alliance due too Strategic location o Unique ability to Develop assets where the U.S cannot

• SIGNET-Signals Intelligence • HUMINT-Human Intelligence• Have recently increased intelligence cooperation

with Iran

Intelligence and Cyber Indicators

• Turkey's intelligence relationship with the US has cooled since 2004, primarily due to US support for the Kurdish PKK party

• Turkey recently established intelligence sharing capabilities with Iran in order to combat PKK terrorism

• Turkey provided US equipment to Iran

Impact on SIGINT and HUMINT ability for U.S. in the Middle East

Turkish Intent: • Form strategic intelligence partnerships in the Middle

East• Seek opportunities to acquire intelligence on militant PKK activities

• Dependence on Iran and Russia for energy necessitates a close relationship

• Leverage geographic advantage and SIGINT strengths to build strong intelligence partnerships

• Loss of intelligence relationship with Israel due to differences in ideology

• Israeli jets may no longer be allowed to fly over Turkish airspace

• Turkish SIGINT capabilities along the Israeli flight path could be used against Israel

Intelligence Cooperation Predictions

Turkey opts to cut off intelligence sharing and surveillance with U.S. and Israel

• Turkey will be an attractive intelligence ally in the Middle East due to geographic location and strong SIGINT capabilities

• Turkey's Intelligence relationship with Israel will suffer:• Loss of intelligence sharing from Southern Syria• Potential weakening of intelligence on Syrian PKK

• Loss of CIA assisted HUMINT capabilities along borders

• Turkey’s drone technology for surveillance and counter terrorism would evolve slower, if at all.

Intelligence Cooperation PredictionsContinued

Intelligence Cooperation Predictions Continued

Turkey opts to continue intelligence sharing and surveillance with U.S. and Israel

• Tense relationship with CIA will likely worsen when working with a radicalized Turkey

• Expect Turkey to leverage its desirable intelligence capabilities to establish relationships with other radicalized countries in the Middle East

• Expect Turkey to continue secret intelligence relationships with other radicalized countries, deepening the CIA's distrust of the MIT.

Intelligence and Cyber What-If

• If the Turkish government succumbs to extremist views, Intelligence and Cyber Security will be affected by:• Loss of intelligence cooperation with U.S.-Israel• Could impact Turkey's status with NATO• Possible decrease awareness on Syria and their

current conflict• Possible decrease in HUMINT capabilities along

Iran and Syria borders

Current SIGINT picture for U.S. in the Middle East

• SIGINT listening post established at GED headquarters in Gölbaşı (A, see map)

• SIGINT listening post in Iraqi Security Zone (B)

• Intelligence inter-dependence with Israel• SIGINT intelligence sharing:

• Israel SIGINT closer to Iran• Turkish SIGINT surrounding Syria

• The Iraqi Security Zone and the Turkish/Syrian border is the normal route for Israeli jets to fly over.

Identification of U.S. Interests

Current HUMINT picture for U.S. in the Middle East

• Interviews along the borders with Syria and Iran provide HUMINT on militant PKK activities (C) & (D)

• CIA Interviews of Syrian defectors as they cross into Turkey provides HUMINT on the Syrian situation (C)

• Border with Iran provides HUMINT opportunities for CIA (D)

Identification of U.S. InterestsContinued

C

DA

B

SIGINT / HUMINT focal points for U.S.

Turkey Intelligence and Cyber Security

Organizations primarily responsible for intelligence:

• National Intelligence Organization – MIT (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati)

• Primary State Intelligence procurement and handling organization

• Undersecretary of Public Order and Security – KDGM (Kamu Duzeni ve Guvenligi Mustesarligi)

• Domestic Intelligence analysis and dissemination organization

• Gendarmerie Intelligence Organization – JITEM (Jandarma Istihbarat Teskilati)

• Secret organization focused on counterterrorism

• Current existence and capabilities are unknown

Turkey Intelligence and Cyber Security

Organizations involved primarily with cybersecurity:

• Cyber Security Institute – SGE (Siber Güvenlik Enstitüsü)• R&D Institute, part of TUBITAK National Research Institute of Electronics

and Cryptology

• Computer Emergency Response Teams

• Information and Communication Technologies Authority – BTK (Bilgi İletişim ve Teknolojileri Kurumu)

• Cyber Army Command

Turkey Intelligence Background

• History of Intelligence in Turkey

• Intelligence organizations date back to Ottoman Empire

• Early organization emulated intelligence services of European countries

• Modern-day activities follow American and NATO models

• Joint Israeli-Turkey intelligence sites along Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian borders

Intelligence Agencies throughout the Years

• TESKILAT-I MAHSUSA (Special Organization) • First intelligence organization • Established on November 17, 1913 • Dismantled after World War I, October 30, 1918.

• KARAKOL CEMIYETI (Police Guild) • Established after Teskilat-I Mahsusa was dismantled• Involved in the National Liberation War • Provided arms, supplies and equipment to fight forces in

Anatolia.

• HAMZA GRUBU (Hamza Group)• Established on September 23, 1920 • Renamed Felah Grubu on August 31, 1921• Continued activities until end of the National Liberation War

• ASKER POLIS TESKILATI • Founded by Turkish General Staff; July 18, 1920• Established to end chaos among the intelligence

organizations, • Dismantled on March 21, 1921.


• MUSELLAH MUDAFAA-I MILLIYE • Armed National Defense• Approved by Turkish Grand National Assembly; May 3, 1921• Consisted of an extensive network of spies a• Dismantled on October 5, 1923.

• After foundation of Republic of Turkey, activities were carried out by intelligence Branches of Army Inspectorships until 1926.

• MILLI EMNIYET HIZMETI RIYASETI (MEH/MAH)• Directorate of the National Security Service• First Intelligence Organization for the Republic of Turkey • Established on January 1, 1926• Year later, reorganized under the Ministry of Internal Affairs


National Intelligence Organization (MIT)

Defence-Point. (n.d.). MIT-Turkey.jpg. Retrieved July 16, 2013, from Defence-Point.gr: http://www.defence-point.gr/news/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/MIT-Turkey.jpg

MIT Organization

Prime MinisterRecep Tayyip Erdoğan

Undersecretary of the MITDr. Hakan Fidan

Deputy UndersecretaryI. Intelligence

Deputy UndersecretaryII. Intelligence

Deputy Undersecretary Technical Intelligence

Deputy UndersecretaryAdministrative

Service Units Service Units Service Units Service Units

MIT Background

• Established on 22 July 1965, by Law no. 644• Run by an Undersecretary, reporting to Prime Minister

• Updated on 1 January 1984, by Law no. 2937, Law on State Intelligence and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization

• MIT effectively replaced the Milli Emniyet Hizmeti (MEH/MAH), the National Police Service

• Approximately 5000 (full-time) employees work for MIT with an annual budget of 996 million Turkish Lira

MIT Duties & Responsibilities

• Procure national security intelligence on immediate and potential activities

• Meet the intelligence needs of the President, the Prime Minister, the Secretary General of the National Security Council, and of the relevant Ministries regarding the national security policy of the State

• Make proposals to the National Security Council and the Prime Minister on directing the intelligence activities of public institutions

MIT Duties & Responsibilities (Continued)

• Provide consultancy in technical issues regarding the intelligence and counterintelligence activities of public institutions

• Deliver the information and intelligence, the General Staff deems necessary for the Armed Forces, to the Headquarters of the General Staff

• Carry out other duties determined by the National Security Council

• Carry out counterintelligence activities

MIT Relationship with Israel

• Cooperation began in 1997 as a joint effort to share intelligence on terrorist activities.

• Israel/Turkey joint listening posts on the Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian borders.

• Information on the PKK and Syrian and Iraqi military movements.

• Intelligence sharing has led to improved military relationships between the two countries.

• Turkey and Israel have granted permission to each other to use their airspace.

MIT Relationship with Iran

• July 2, 2012• Two PKK militants turned themselves in as part of a unit of 200 who

transported heavy weaponry to the southeastern Turkish district of Semdinli• MIT was previously unaware of the activity• MIT had been sharing intelligence with Iran, unknown to the rest of the

intelligence community, and saw the lack of intelligence on the PKK offensive as a betrayal by SAVAK (Iranian Organization of Intelligence and National Security)

• “I am disappointed with the Iranians’ attitude. Turkey was sharing intelligence with Iran concerning the PKK, but Iran did not help Turkey know more about PKK units on Iranian territory” – Prime Minister Erdoğan

• MIT’s assistance to Iran in providing US equipment was seen as a betrayal to the CIA

MIT Relationship with CIA

• Historically strong relationship has cooled considerably since 2004

• Ankara feels the U.S. presence in Iraq since the Gulf War has allowed the PKK to flourish in northern Iraq

• Perception the U.S. has been supporting the PKK• Claims the U.S. formed a Kurdish region in northern Iraq• Turkish public has been attributing the growth in terror attacks

to the U.S.• Concerned the U.S. might be willing to divide Turkey

• U.S. strategy is based on a rapprochement between Turks and Kurds

• U.S. is trying to bring Kurdish bodies closer to Turkey• Main obstacle to Turkish rapprochement is the PKK

KDGM Duties & Responsibilities

• Kamu Düzeni ve Güvenliği Müsteşarlığı (KDGM) is the Under-secretariat of Public Order and Security (of the Prime Minister)

• Established under Law no. 5952 to “ensure productivity and effectiveness in the field of counterterrorism”

• Responsible for domestic intelligence• Produces counterterrorism policies and strategies• Ensuring that the security forces and intelligence

agencies are analyzing, sharing and effectively using intelligence

• Fulfilling other duties assigned by legislation

JITEM Duties & Responsibilities

• Jandarma İstihbarat ve Terörle Mücadele (JITEM) is a secret Gendarmerie Intelligence organization dedicated to counter-terrorism activities.• Established as a body within Gendarmerie General

Command without the approval of the General Staff or the knowledge of the Interior Ministry.

• Little is known about JITEM’s official duties and responsibilities due to the secrecy of the program.

• It is unknown outside of Turkish government whether JITEM still exists at all.

JITEM Duties & Responsibilities

• Some People's Democratic Party (HADEP) leaders claim that JITEM was opposed to the establishment of democratic parties, like HADEP.

• Accused of involvement in dozens of unsolved murders in 1990s.• Many civil rights activists, politicians and business people

were kidnapped and murdered. Bodies were thrown into the wells and others were doused in acid and thrown into the fields.

• Organization has links to Ergenekon, which is a clandestine criminal organization accused of planning to overthrow the government.

Cyber Security Policies

• Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications has overall responsibility for establishing cyber security policies

• Information and Communication Technologies Authority (ICTA) regulates cyber security issues

• National Cyber Security policy document established in 2008; strategy document in October 2012

• Cabinet Decision Nr. 2012/3842 established a National Cyber Security Board in October 2012 to oversee cyber security issues

Cyber Security Institute Duties & Responsibilities

• Siber Güvenlik Enstitüsü (SGE) is the Cyber Security Institute under the Scientific and Technological Research Council (TUBITAK)

• Information security consulting and services • Military• Public security institutions• Private sector

Cyber Security Institute Duties & Responsibilities

• Provides the following consulting services:• System security testing and auditing• Secure information system design• Information security management• Secure software development• IT product safety testing• Malware analysis• Digital forensic analysis• Network monitoring and intrusion prevention• Data privacy• CERT (Computer Incidents Response Team)• Information Security Training

Computer Emergency Response Teams

• Two accredited CERTs• TR-BOME – government-run• ULAK-CSIRT – belongs to the Scientific and Technological

Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for research and education

Information and Communication Technologies Authority (BTK)

• Bilgi İletişim ve Teknolojileri Kurumu (BTK) is the Information and Communication Technologies Authority

• Equivalent of the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

• Regulates policies established by Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications

• Anti-spam project in 2009 reduced spam e-mails by 99%, from 6.5 billion to 394 million

• Hacked in 2012 by unknown actors, victim of Denial of Service

Cyber Army Command

• Established sometime in 2012, announced in January 2013• Established to counter cyber-terrorism attacks. • Special unit created within General Staff with cooperation

with the Defense Ministry, the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TAK) and the Middle East Technical University.

• Mimics the U.S. Cyber Command, subordinate to Turkish General Staff• Will function within framework of the National Virtual Media

Security Policy and protect public institutions and organizations.

• Has its own budget and an autonomous structure.

Cyber Army Command

• Monitors entire Internet network in Turkey, protects state institutions

• Participates in national and NATO led cyber-defense exercises• “White Hackers” trained with specific expertise in health

defense, security, education, insurance and banking. • Trained to look for vulnerabilities and weaknesses within

institutions and eliminate the vulnerabilities by putting up defensive measures.

Timeline of Cyber / Intelligence Events

2002Alleged Turkish infiltration of the US State Dept, Pentagon, and Congress to blackmail a Congress member to sway a Congressional vote on recognizing the Armenian genocide.

201101/06/2011 - DDoS attacks against multiple Turkish government websites by Anonymous in response to Turkey’s plans to introduce Internet filtering.

01/25/2011 - National Cyber Security Exercise executed with cooperation of the Information and Communications Authority (BTK) and TUBITAK Informatics and Information Security Advanced Technologies Research Center (BILGEM)

07/08/2011 – 74 websites and more than 100 Turkish government domains attacked by Anonymous


201203/01/2012 – Attack against Ankara Police Headquarters network by RedHack. Leaked files were released on www.red-hack.org. Attack was performed in support of the AntiSec operation to attack all types of government and security firms.

03/07/2012 – Attack against the Turkish Prime Ministry’s network, attempting to access official documents of government correspondence, initially attributed to Anonymous. Anonymous denied carrying out the attacks.

2011 (cont’d)11/09/2011 – Turkish Finance Ministry website attacked by terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers’Party (PKK). Website replaced with propaganda material.


2012 (cont’d)06/2012 – Turkish Intelligence betrays CIA; deceived by Iran.

201301/24/2013 – Turkey’s Council of Higher Education (YOK) attacked by RedHack. 60,000 documents leaked

05/06/2013 – Istanbul official government website defaced by RedHack in “retaliation for of attack on people at MayDay and to commemorate revolutionaries Deniz, Yusuf, Huseyin hanged on May 6, 1972.”


2013 (cont’d)06/05/2013 – Turkish government networks attacked by Syrian Electronic Army and Anonymous. The Prime Minister’s official website, basbakanlik.gov.tr, was compromised and access was gained to staff email, passwords, and phone numbers.

06/12/2013 – MIT Undersecretary and the head of Israel’s Mossad Secret Service meet in Ankara to discuss intelligence sharing between the two countries and protests in Taksim square.

06/13/2013 – DDoS attack on Turkey’s Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTUK) official website by Anonymous.

06/28/2013 – attack on Istanbul Special Provincial Administration’s website by RedHack allegedly resulting in debt write-offs.

Cyber Threats

• RedHack• Turkish based hacktivist

organization• Istanbul Police classify

RedHack as a “Cyber Terrorist Organization”

• Responsible for attacks on multiple Turkish government websites and networks

Cyber Threats(continued)

• Anonymous• Loosely organized hacktivist

organization

• Responsible for attacks on multiple Turkish government websites and networks

• Close relationship with RedHack

Cyber Threats(continued)

• Syrian Electronic Army• Syrian-based hacktivist organization

• 06/05/2013 – In coordination with Anonymous, attacked Prime Minister’s official website, gained access to staff email, passwords, and phone numbers.

• Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)• Highly organized terrorist organization

focused on Kurdish nationalism

• 11/09/2011 – Defaced Turkish Finance Ministry website with propaganda material

• Primarily a physical threat through militant actions against Turkey

• US-Turkey defense relationship is critical to good relations between Turkey and NATO

• Turkey will no longer host US-made radar system in Kurecik district• Radar system turned Turkey into “intelligence-provider”

• Less intelligence sharing on Turkey’s surrounding countries• No resolution to Turkey-Israel relations

• US desire to coordinate regional policies with both nations

• US’s interest in Turkish domestic and foreign policy issues

• No access to global hotspots

Impact to US without Turkey’s feed into the NATO intelligence stream

Jay Kippen

Foreign relations????

Impact on SIGINT and HUMINT ability for U.S. in the Middle East

• Effect on U.S: • CIA relationship will suffer as a close ally of Israel and

adversary of Iran

• Loss of HUMINT capabilities on Turkish borders

• Loss of SIGINT capabilities from Gölbaşı and Iraqi Security Zone

• U.S. loses key intelligence facilities from a critical area in the Middle East.

• U.S. Strategy of facilitating a rapprochement between Turks and Kurds is in jeopardy

• Intelligence channels to monitor militant PKK sects will be cut off

• A rapprochement will start to slip away without solid intelligence analysis of both sides in the conflict

• Iraqi border security is in jeopardy without an ally to the north.

Consequences

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