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UFE 2007 Analysis 1 UFE 2007 ANALYSIS Compiled by Load Profiling ERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation
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UFE 2007 Analysis1
UFE 2007 ANALYSIS
Compiled by Load ProfilingERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation
UFE 2007 Analysis2
UFE Basics
Sources of UFE include:■ Generation Measurement Errors■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data
- Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error - Theft
■ Losses - Model Error - Loss Code Assignment Error
Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated
UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)
UFE 2007 Analysis3
UFE Basics
Net Generation for Settlement Interval
Interval Data Energy Usage
Profiled Energy Usage Non-Interval Data
Non-Metered Accounts
Losses:Transmission &
Distribution
UFEGAP - - - - - - >
Net GenerationCompared toLoad Buildup
UFE 2007 Analysis4
OVERVIEW OF THE SETTLEMENT PROCESS
UFE is computed for each 15-minute interval of a settlement run.
Initial
Final
Settlement
True-Up
Initial Settlement(posted on day 10 after the operating day)
Final Settlement(posted on day 60 after the operating day)
True-up Settlement (posted 6 months after operating day)
Resettlement statement (posted as needed)
UFE 2007 Analysis5
Load Weighted Calculation of MCPE
Market Clearing Price for Energy (MCPE) is the highest price by Congestion Zone for a Settlement Interval for Balancing Energy deployed during the Settlement Interval.
In 2007 there were 4 congestion zones – H07, N07, S07 and W07.
The load weighted MCPE is calculated for each 15 min. interval using the LCMZone cuts as follows:
MCPE_LWTD = ((LCMZone_H07_MWh * MCPEL_H07) + (LCMZone_N07_MWh * MCPEL_N07) + (LCMZone_S07_MWh * MCPEL_S07) + (LCMZone_W07_MWh * MCPEL_W07)) /
(LCMZone_H07_MWh + LCMZone_N07_MWh + LCMZone_S07_MWh + LCMZone_W07_MWh)
UFE 2007 Analysis6
Annual validation 2006 was completed resulting in some changes to Profile ID assignments.
New profile models were implemented, effective May 15, 2007.
Transmission and distribution loss factors were updated in March 2007. Transmission losses are based on a March - February year.
The ERCOT region experienced unusually cool temperatures during the summer.
Events that Influenced 2007 UFE
UFE 2007 Analysis7
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2007Initial Settlement
SR01
ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 13, 2007Initial Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
UFE 2007 Analysis8
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2007Final Settlement
SR02
ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 13, 2007Final Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
UFE 2007 Analysis9
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2007True Up Settlement
SR03
ERCOT Load and UFE 2007 Peak Day - August 13, 2007True Up Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
UFE 2007 Analysis10
UFE MWh by Month in 2007Initial Settlement
SR04
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 2,961,951 MWh
ABS Annual UFE = 6,337,681 MWh
Annual UFE = 2,961,951 MWh
UFE 2007 Analysis11
UFE Cost by Month in 2007 Initial Settlement
SR05
-20,000,000
-10,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $378,009,935
Annual UFE Cost = $227,272,405
UFE 2007 Analysis12
UFE MWh by Month in 2007Final Settlement
SR06
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 2,951,100 MWh
ABS Annual UFE = 4,907,167 MWh
UFE 2007 Analysis13
UFE Cost by Month in 2007 Final Settlement
SR07
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $296,806,619
Annual UFE Cost = $208,845,508
UFE 2007 Analysis14
UFE MWh by Month in 2007 True-Up Settlement
SR08
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 2,914,297 MWh
ABS Annual UFE = 4,889,496 MWh
UFE 2007 Analysis15
UFE Cost by Month in 2007 True-UP Settlement
SR09
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
llar
s
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $295,744,239
Annual UFE Cost = $206,949,832
UFE 2007 Analysis16
ABS UFE MWh by Month in 2007 Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
SR09a
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
Initial Final True Up
UFE 2007 Analysis17
ABS UFE Cost by Month in 2007 Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements
SR09b
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
Initial Final True UpUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
UFE 2007 Analysis18
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR10
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 31,980 30,107 19,209 55,703 7,437
2003 32,489 30,824 19,282 59,992 7,546
2004 32,909 31,162 20,231 58,528 7,448
2005 34,155 31,901 20,482 60,272 8,452
2006 34,884 32,707 21,223 62,430 8,508
2007 35,008 33,324 21,701 62,250 7,470
2002 32,002 30,116 19,211 56,233 7,467
2003 32,517 30,850 19,292 59,996 7,562
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531 7,445
2005 34,161 31,911 20,486 60,270 8,454
2006 34,899 32,716 21,225 62,434 8,502
2007 35,016 33,332 21,715 62,265 7,471
2002 32,052 30,142 19,266 56,248 7,479
2003 32,532 30,865 19,310 60,095 7,571
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531 7,445
2005 34,162 31,912 20,490 60,274 8,453
2006 34,902 32,722 21,225 62,434 8,502
2007 35,016 33,330 21,712 62,265 7,471
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
UFE 2007 Analysis19
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR11a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 -2,176 -2,228 -6,969 5,673 1,572
2003 -314 -400 -3,906 3,798 1,003
2004 67 -9 -4,558 4,559 792
2005 75 45 -5,537 3,538 881
2006 110 69 -2,957 4,543 877
2007 338 305 -4,000 6,666 900
2002 -1,624 -1,598 -5,954 3,427 1,147
2003 -6 -119 -3,172 3,728 891
2004 130 56 -3,929 4,302 721
2005 118 77 -4,199 3,163 750
2006 257 220 -2,288 3,351 707
2007 337 305 -3,068 3,972 644
2002 -456 -553 -3,371 3,803 898
2003 192 72 -2,886 4,065 857
2004 153 83 -3,879 4,299 719
2005 124 82 -4,155 3,190 750
2006 263 225 -2,296 3,332 706
2007 333 300 -3,076 3,975 643
UFE (MW)
UFE (MW)
UFE (MW)
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE 2007 Analysis20
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR11b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 2,321 2,257 0 6,969 1,348
2003 857 759 0 3,906 607
2004 606 472 0 4,559 515
2005 649 491 0 5,537 600
2006 673 528 0 4,543 574
2007 723 562 0 6,666 633
FINAL
2002 1,696 1,601 0 5,954 1,038
2003 707 599 0 3,728 542
2004 550 414 0 4,302 484
2005 567 426 0 4,199 505
2006 574 449 0 3,351 486
2007 560 445 0 3,972 463
2002 838 771 0 3,803 559
2003 672 528 0 4,065 565
2004 551 413 0 4,299 487
2005 568 427 0 4,155 505
2006 574 450 0 3,332 488
2007 558 443 0 3,975 462
TRUE-UP
|UFE| (MW)
|UFE| (MW)
|UFE| (MW)
INITIAL
UFE 2007 Analysis21
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR12a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 -7.0 -7.1 -24.1 16.8 5.1
2003 -1.3 -1.3 -12.7 9.4 3.2
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9 2.4
2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3 2.6
2006 0.2 0.2 -8.8 11.1 2.5
2007 0.9 0.9 -14.6 14.4 2.5
2002 -5.3 -5.2 -20.6 9.5 3.8
2003 -0.2 -0.4 -10.3 9.4 2.7
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.2 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.2 13.2 1.8
2002 -1.7 -1.8 -14.8 10.5 2.9
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.9 2.5
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.1 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.3 13.2 1.8
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE 2007 Analysis22
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR12b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 7.5 7.2 0.0 24.1 4.4
2003 2.8 2.4 0.0 12.7 2.0
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9 1.5
2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9 1.7
2006 1.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 1.6
2007 2.1 1.7 0.0 14.6 1.7
2002 5.6 5.2 0.0 20.6 3.5
2003 2.2 1.9 0.0 10.3 1.6
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.2 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8 1.9
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.9 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.1 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
UFE 2007 Analysis23
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR13a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 356 -1,785 -88,773 511,652 17,737
2004 2,279 -57 -76,418 200,563 11,501
2005 4,224 386 -183,607 730,583 24,830
2006 4,131 596 -164,012 524,472 19,452
2007 6,522 3,033 -148,380 971,848 26,131
2002 -2,067 -1,841 -23,686 580,173 21,632
2003 2,663 -635 -132,426 824,621 22,931
2004 2,694 442 -92,510 164,969 10,532
2005 4,738 722 -220,201 596,968 21,409
2006 5,329 1,983 -118,425 452,539 16,076
2007 5,993 3,111 -115,711 649,964 20,154
2002 -1,777 -2,287 -121,635 933,143 13,866
2003 4,993 496 -86,677 904,970 24,964
2004 2,923 632 -92,408 168,849 10,577
2005 4,970 776 -212,732 603,737 21,679
2006 5,379 2,020 -116,067 455,747 16,094
2007 5,939 3,062 -115,201 645,980 20,101
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
UFE 2007 Analysis24
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR13b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 8,804 5,560 0 511,652 15,401
2004 6,887 4,055 0 200,563 9,489
2005 12,447 6,177 0 730,583 21,895
2006 9,886 5,543 0 524,472 17,254
2007 10,847 6,229 0 971,848 24,651
2002 5,664 3,579 0 580,173 20,978
2003 8,596 4,699 0 824,621 21,425
2004 6,297 3,630 0 164,969 8,862
2005 10,923 5,345 0 596,968 19,012
2006 8,615 4,670 0 452,539 14,582
2007 8,517 4,977 0 649,964 19,224
2002 5,251 3,780 0 933,143 12,955
2003 8,695 4,137 0 904,970 23,928
2004 6,329 3,605 0 168,849 8,964
2005 11,016 5,338 0 603,737 19,321
2006 8,620 4,688 0 455,747 14,617
2007 8,487 4,970 0 645,980 19,164
|UFE Cost| ($)
|UFE Cost| ($)
|UFE Cost| ($)
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE 2007 Analysis25
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR14a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 -1.0 -1.0 -11.4 9.4 3.1
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9 2.4
2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3 2.6
2006 0.2 0.2 -8.8 11.1 2.5
2007 0.9 0.9 -14.6 14.4 2.5
2002 -2.2 -2.1 -9.4 3.0 2.6
2003 -0.1 -0.3 -8.7 9.4 2.6
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.2 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.2 13.2 1.8
2002 -1.6 -1.8 -14.8 10.5 2.9
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.5 2.5
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.1 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.3 13.2 1.8
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
UFE 2007 Analysis26
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2007
SR14b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 2.6 2.3 0.0 11.4 1.9
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9 1.5
2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9 1.7
2006 1.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 1.6
2007 2.1 1.7 0.0 14.6 1.7
2002 2.7 2.2 0.0 9.4 2.1
2003 2.1 1.9 0.0 9.4 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.2 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8 1.9
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.5 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.1 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE 2007 Analysis27
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
SR15
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,706 33,584 22,509 50,557 5,437 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,178 31,629 22,407 51,243 5,080
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,713 33,591 22,517 50,570 5,436 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,185 31,637 22,416 51,251 5,080
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,712 33,590 22,516 50,568 5,436 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,183 31,634 22,414 51,249 5,080
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,288 30,256 21,701 39,739 3,625 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,974 30,610 21,979 41,794 4,233
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,295 30,264 21,715 39,745 3,625 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,982 30,621 21,984 41,798 4,237
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,293 30,262 21,712 39,743 3,625 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,980 30,620 21,981 41,796 4,237
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,282 34,498 23,408 49,410 6,121 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,387 39,275 26,398 56,555 7,342
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,291 34,507 23,411 49,411 6,120 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,396 39,281 26,410 56,569 7,343
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,291 34,507 23,411 49,411 6,120 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,396 39,281 26,410 56,569 7,343
MAY JUNE
JANUARY
MARCH
FEBRUARY
APRIL
UFE 2007 Analysis28SR16
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,563 39,542 27,261 56,793 7,280 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 44,301 44,440 30,099 62,250 8,477
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,570 39,550 27,264 56,801 7,280 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 44,307 44,450 30,100 62,265 8,479
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,570 39,551 27,264 56,802 7,280 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 44,307 44,451 30,100 62,265 8,479
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,674 39,685 27,331 55,243 7,532 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,349 32,489 22,257 54,204 7,294
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,684 39,696 27,337 55,254 7,533 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,356 32,497 22,267 54,216 7,295
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 39,684 39,696 27,337 55,254 7,533 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 34,356 32,497 22,267 54,216 7,295
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,078 31,537 22,393 40,080 4,138 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,399 32,634 23,419 45,108 3,865
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,085 31,543 22,400 40,093 4,138 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,407 32,642 23,427 45,123 3,865
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,085 31,543 22,400 40,093 4,138 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 32,407 32,642 23,427 45,123 3,865
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
UFE 2007 Analysis29SR17
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) 978 810 -2,457 6,666 1,198 UFE (MW) -147 -204 -3,523 2,653 740
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 416 366 -2,227 3,274 848 UFE (MW) 327 301 -2,521 2,950 679
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 420 370 -2,223 3,271 848 UFE (MW) 325 302 -2,511 2,953 680
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) -236 -147 -2,319 1,816 615 UFE (MW) 320 413 -3,999 3,028 811
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 255 264 -1,214 1,974 468 UFE (MW) 295 326 -3,068 2,957 617
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 255 265 -1,218 1,972 467 UFE (MW) 289 321 -3,076 2,951 617
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) 785 664 -1,330 4,319 778 UFE (MW) 282 252 -2,606 2,252 710
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 367 292 -1,373 2,889 650 UFE (MW) 406 348 -1,483 2,278 605
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 361 289 -1,381 2,871 648 UFE (MW) 390 329 -1,516 2,234 601
MAY
JANUARY
MARCH
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2007 Analysis30SR18
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) 328 289 -2,140 2,756 783 UFE (MW) 821 802 -1,462 2,585 602
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 374 258 -1,186 3,055 653 UFE (MW) 471 488 -1,429 1,993 540
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 361 247 -1,225 3,005 654 UFE (MW) 470 488 -1,418 2,002 543
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) 155 129 -1,982 2,198 657 UFE (MW) -179 -166 -2,759 3,686 779
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 282 247 -1,937 2,391 628 UFE (MW) 274 506 0 3,686 501
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 286 250 -1,932 2,395 629 UFE (MW) 282 240 -1,493 3,972 610
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE (MW) 551 546 -2,618 3,393 786 UFE (MW) 432 337 -4,000 3,688 1,066
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 260 272 -2,608 1,915 606 UFE (MW) 327 293 -2,534 2,493 705
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 243 258 -2,649 1,864 601 UFE (MW) 325 294 -2,525 2,483 702
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2007 Analysis31SR19
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 1,157 881 1 6,666 1,026 |UFE| (MW) 606 541 0 3,523 449
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 747 598 0 3,274 578 |UFE| (MW) 585 478 0 2,950 475
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 748 598 0 3,271 579 |UFE| (MW) 585 478 0 2,953 474
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 510 394 0 2,319 418 |UFE| (MW) 675 542 0 3,999 551
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 430 367 0 1,974 315 |UFE| (MW) 531 443 0 3,068 431
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 429 366 0 1,972 314 |UFE| (MW) 528 440 0 3,076 431
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 865 685 0 4,319 688 |UFE| (MW) 588 453 0 2,606 488
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 564 413 0 2,889 488 |UFE| (MW) 565 439 0 2,278 459
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 561 409 0 2,871 485 |UFE| (MW) 556 429 0 2,234 452
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2007 Analysis32SR20
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 648 473 0 2,756 549 |UFE| (MW) 879 809 1 2,585 514
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 546 370 0 3,055 519 |UFE| (MW) 594 543 0 1,993 400
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 542 368 0 3,005 515 |UFE| (MW) 595 545 1 2,002 402
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 527 416 1 2,198 422 |UFE| (MW) 624 506 0 3,686 501
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 536 413 0 2,391 433 |UFE| (MW) 507 425 0 3,972 436
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 538 412 0 2,395 434 |UFE| (MW) 510 426 1 3,975 438
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE| (MW) 753 633 0 3,393 595 |UFE| (MW) 855 615 0 4,000 769
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 524 435 0 2,608 400 |UFE| (MW) 600 467 0 2,534 494
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 516 435 0 2,649 393 |UFE| (MW) 598 466 0 2,525 491
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2007 Analysis33SR21
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load 2.64 2.40 -8.45 14.38 3.12 UFE as % of Load -0.48 -0.64 -7.15 7.57 2.29
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 1.13 1.11 -7.68 7.23 2.42 UFE as % of Load 1.02 0.93 -5.16 8.41 2.09
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 1.14 1.12 -7.67 7.23 2.42 UFE as % of Load 1.01 0.91 -5.15 8.42 2.09
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load -0.74 -0.51 -7.73 6.30 2.07 UFE as % of Load 1.05 1.39 -14.64 10.39 2.74
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.93 0.90 -4.04 7.53 1.61 UFE as % of Load 1.00 1.18 -11.22 10.15 2.11
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.92 0.90 -4.06 7.53 1.61 UFE as % of Load 0.98 1.16 -11.26 10.13 2.11
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load 2.16 2.09 -3.86 9.32 1.95 UFE as % of Load 0.63 0.67 -6.89 6.16 1.74
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.97 0.92 -3.99 6.23 1.73 UFE as % of Load 0.94 0.91 -3.92 5.53 1.43
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.95 0.91 -4.01 6.20 1.72 UFE as % of Load 0.90 0.86 -4.01 5.46 1.43
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2007 Analysis34SR22
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load 0.71 0.79 -5.44 5.61 1.82 UFE as % of Load 1.83 1.92 -2.90 4.95 1.25
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.85 0.73 -3.01 6.22 1.44 UFE as % of Load 1.06 1.11 -2.83 3.84 1.17
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.81 0.72 -3.09 6.12 1.44 UFE as % of Load 1.05 1.11 -2.81 3.85 1.17
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load 0.29 0.34 -5.11 4.50 1.57 UFE as % of Load -0.64 -0.49 -8.75 12.30 2.42
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.64 0.69 -4.15 4.90 1.44 UFE as % of Load 0.78 0.74 -4.73 13.17 1.86
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.64 0.69 -4.14 4.90 1.44 UFE as % of Load 0.80 0.76 -4.70 13.18 1.86
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE as % of Load 1.80 1.86 -8.32 9.53 2.50 UFE as % of Load 1.21 1.12 -12.13 10.33 3.20
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.90 0.94 -8.27 6.50 1.96 UFE as % of Load 0.95 0.92 -7.74 6.98 2.11
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.85 0.88 -8.40 6.36 1.94 UFE as % of Load 0.94 0.92 -7.71 6.96 2.10
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2007 Analysis35SR23
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 3.22 2.66 0.00 14.38 2.52 |UFE as % of Load| 1.90 1.66 0.00 7.57 1.36
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 2.15 1.77 0.00 7.68 1.59 |UFE as % of Load| 1.82 1.50 0.00 8.41 1.44
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 2.15 1.77 0.00 7.67 1.59 |UFE as % of Load| 1.82 1.50 0.00 8.42 1.44
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 1.72 1.40 0.00 7.73 1.37 |UFE as % of Load| 2.27 1.87 0.00 14.64 1.86
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.49 1.26 0.00 7.53 1.10 |UFE as % of Load| 1.79 1.48 0.00 11.22 1.49
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.49 1.26 0.00 7.53 1.10 |UFE as % of Load| 1.78 1.46 0.00 11.26 1.49
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 2.41 2.12 0.00 9.32 1.64 |UFE as % of Load| 1.45 1.23 0.00 6.89 1.14
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.57 1.30 0.00 6.23 1.20 |UFE as % of Load| 1.37 1.15 0.00 5.53 1.02
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.57 1.29 0.00 6.20 1.19 |UFE as % of Load| 1.35 1.13 0.00 5.46 1.01
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2007 Analysis36SR24
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 1.56 1.30 0.00 5.61 1.17 |UFE as % of Load| 1.95 1.93 0.00 4.95 1.04
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.29 1.00 0.00 6.22 1.06 |UFE as % of Load| 1.33 1.23 0.00 3.84 0.84
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.28 0.99 0.00 6.12 1.06 |UFE as % of Load| 1.33 1.23 0.00 3.85 0.84
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 1.29 1.10 0.00 5.11 0.94 |UFE as % of Load| 1.91 1.50 0.00 12.30 1.63
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.29 1.10 0.00 4.90 0.91 |UFE as % of Load| 1.48 1.28 0.00 13.17 1.36
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.29 1.10 0.00 4.90 0.91 |UFE as % of Load| 1.49 1.28 0.00 13.18 1.37
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE as % of Load| 2.44 2.14 0.00 9.53 1.88 |UFE as % of Load| 2.58 1.94 0.00 12.13 2.24
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.71 1.42 0.00 8.27 1.31 |UFE as % of Load| 1.82 1.48 0.00 7.74 1.43
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.68 1.43 0.00 8.40 1.29 |UFE as % of Load| 1.81 1.48 0.00 7.71 1.42
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2007 Analysis37SR25
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 15,002 9,286 -24,535 583,717 31,397 UFE Cost ($) -1,558 -2,038 -148,380 273,377 13,118
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 6,780 4,259 -29,381 346,403 18,674 UFE Cost ($) 4,666 3,081 -97,070 339,321 13,173
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 6,830 4,300 -29,219 347,058 18,722 UFE Cost ($) 4,640 3,075 -96,402 338,668 13,170
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) -2,929 -1,679 -36,920 216,060 10,192 UFE Cost ($) 7,197 4,375 -104,894 507,952 28,317
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 3,781 2,861 -18,642 340,692 11,089 UFE Cost ($) 6,126 3,511 -40,417 515,646 25,721
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 3,773 2,854 -18,689 341,352 11,099 UFE Cost ($) 6,040 3,448 -39,623 512,837 25,585
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 15,077 7,693 -14,680 971,848 48,508 UFE Cost ($) 5,219 2,781 -86,988 217,282 13,431
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 8,364 3,331 -17,278 649,964 33,121 UFE Cost ($) 6,890 4,180 -42,865 175,699 11,827
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 8,267 3,293 -17,977 645,980 32,916 UFE Cost ($) 6,659 4,014 -44,812 174,941 11,736
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2007 Analysis38SR26
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 6,314 2,562 -20,697 356,656 20,113 UFE Cost ($) 13,121 9,976 -23,734 396,958 20,531
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 6,757 2,303 -14,553 400,831 20,981 UFE Cost ($) 7,439 5,794 -32,447 268,833 15,188
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 6,580 2,229 -14,729 392,028 20,771 UFE Cost ($) 7,445 5,754 -32,553 281,212 15,399
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 6,631 1,146 -103,684 544,353 32,899 UFE Cost ($) -1,058 -1,257 -45,330 107,456 9,818
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 7,787 2,379 -62,078 509,008 31,560 UFE Cost ($) 4,094 1,916 -22,533 135,208 10,089
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 7,868 2,418 -55,664 514,266 31,748 UFE Cost ($) 4,204 1,998 -21,382 135,959 10,170
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost ($) 7,373 4,585 -61,910 363,163 19,255 UFE Cost ($) 8,515 3,218 -99,163 786,685 28,056
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 3,516 2,173 -115,711 273,879 13,833 UFE Cost ($) 5,934 2,909 -68,211 516,060 18,555
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 3,295 1,992 -115,201 265,858 13,483 UFE Cost ($) 5,889 2,870 -69,429 511,894 18,420
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2007 Analysis39SR27
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 16,598 9,954 4.4 583,717 30,583 |UFE COST| ($) 8,134 6,056 2.7 273,377 10,408
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 10,055 6,568 2.1 346,403 17,134 |UFE COST| ($) 8,009 5,391 0.5 339,321 11,451
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 10,074 6,521 3.9 347,058 17,195 |UFE COST| ($) 8,003 5,381 1.9 338,668 11,442
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 6,956 4,967 4.1 216,060 8,004 |UFE COST| ($) 10,650 6,554 0.6 507,952 27,207
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 6,086 4,471 2.5 340,692 10,011 |UFE COST| ($) 8,579 5,107 0.1 515,646 25,010
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 6,079 4,459 0.8 341,352 10,024 |UFE COST| ($) 8,530 5,055 4.1 512,837 24,866
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 15,931 7,875 1.8 971,848 48,234 |UFE COST| ($) 9,079 5,468 1.3 217,282 11,188
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 10,390 4,803 2.3 649,964 32,542 |UFE COST| ($) 8,816 5,664 1.3 175,699 10,469
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 10,321 4,758 0.2 645,980 32,331 |UFE COST| ($) 8,672 5,552 4.1 174,941 10,337
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2007 Analysis40SR28
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 9,508 4,987 0.3 356,656 18,815 |UFE COST| ($) 13,951 10,235 6.2 396,958 19,976
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 8,597 4,015 0.8 400,831 20,296 |UFE COST| ($) 9,277 6,617 3.2 268,833 14,140
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 8,521 4,076 1.1 392,028 20,053 |UFE COST| ($) 9,313 6,623 5.9 281,212 14,347
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 10,589 4,356 5.4 544,353 31,845 |UFE COST| ($) 7,128 5,027 3.9 107,456 6,833
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 10,726 4,503 0.3 509,008 30,686 |UFE COST| ($) 6,579 4,422 5.4 135,208 8,675
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 10,778 4,519 3.2 514,266 30,881 |UFE COST| ($) 6,630 4,448 7.6 135,959 8,783
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE COST| ($) 9,701 5,856 3.5 363,163 18,193 |UFE COST| ($) 12,217 6,237 0.2 786,685 26,653
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 6,742 4,386 1.9 273,879 12,579 |UFE COST| ($) 8,586 4,831 5.9 516,060 17,486
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 6,616 4,399 0.7 265,858 12,201 |UFE COST| ($) 8,551 4,829 1.2 511,894 17,345
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2007 Analysis41SR29
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 2.6 2.4 -8.4 14.4 3.1 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -0.5 -0.6 -7.1 7.6 2.3
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.1 1.1 -7.7 7.2 2.4 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.0 0.9 -5.2 8.4 2.1
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.1 1.1 -7.7 7.2 2.4 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.0 0.9 -5.2 8.4 2.1
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -0.7 -0.5 -7.7 6.3 2.1 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.0 1.4 -14.6 10.4 2.7
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 0.9 -4.0 7.5 1.6 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.0 1.2 -11.2 10.1 2.1
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 0.9 -4.1 7.5 1.6 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.0 1.2 -11.3 10.1 2.1
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 2.2 2.1 -3.9 9.3 2.0 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.6 0.7 -6.9 6.2 1.7
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.0 1.0 -4.0 6.2 1.7 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 0.9 -3.9 5.5 1.4
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.0 1.0 -4.0 6.2 1.7 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 0.9 -4.0 5.5 1.4
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2007 Analysis42SR30
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.7 0.8 -5.4 5.6 1.8 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.8 1.9 -2.9 4.9 1.3
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.8 0.7 -3.0 6.2 1.4 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.1 1.1 -2.8 3.8 1.2
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.8 0.7 -3.1 6.1 1.4 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.1 1.1 -2.8 3.9 1.2
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.3 0.3 -5.1 4.5 1.6 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost -0.6 -0.5 -8.7 12.3 2.4
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.6 0.7 -4.1 4.9 1.5 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.8 0.7 -4.7 13.2 1.9
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.6 0.7 -4.1 4.9 1.5 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.8 0.8 -4.7 13.2 1.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.8 1.9 -8.3 9.5 2.5 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 1.2 1.1 -12.1 10.3 3.2
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 0.9 -8.3 6.5 2.0 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 0.9 -7.7 7.0 2.1
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.8 0.9 -8.4 6.4 1.9 UFE Cost as % of Total Cost 0.9 0.9 -7.7 7.0 2.1
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2007 Analysis43SR31
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 3.2 2.7 0.0 14.4 2.5 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.7 0.0 7.6 1.4
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.1 1.8 0.0 7.7 1.6 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.8 1.5 0.0 8.4 1.4
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.2 1.8 0.0 7.7 1.6 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.8 1.5 0.0 8.4 1.4
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.7 1.4 0.0 7.7 1.4 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.3 1.9 0.0 14.6 1.9
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.5 1.3 0.0 7.5 1.1 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.8 1.5 0.0 11.2 1.5
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.5 1.3 0.0 7.5 1.1 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.8 1.5 0.0 11.3 1.5
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.4 2.1 0.0 9.3 1.6 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.5 1.2 0.0 6.9 1.1
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.6 1.3 0.0 6.2 1.2 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.4 1.2 0.0 5.5 1.0
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.6 1.3 0.0 6.2 1.2 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.4 1.1 0.0 5.5 1.0
JANUARY
MARCH
MAY
FEBRUARY
APRIL
JUNE
UFE 2007 Analysis44SR32
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2007
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.6 1.3 0.0 5.6 1.2 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.0 1.9 0.0 4.9 1.0
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.0 0.0 6.2 1.1 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.2 0.0 3.8 0.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.0 0.0 6.1 1.1 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.2 0.0 3.9 0.8
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.1 0.0 5.1 0.9 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.9 1.5 0.0 12.3 1.6
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.1 0.0 4.9 0.9 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.5 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.4
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.3 1.1 0.0 4.9 0.9 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.5 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.4
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.4 2.1 0.0 9.5 1.9 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 2.6 1.9 0.0 12.1 2.2
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.7 1.4 0.0 8.3 1.3 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.8 1.5 0.0 7.7 1.4
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.7 1.4 0.0 8.4 1.3 |UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost 1.8 1.5 0.0 7.7 1.4
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
UFE 2007 Analysis45UFD01
Distribution of UFE MW Initial, Final, and True Up - 2007
0
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UFE (MW)
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Initial Final True Up
UFE 2007 Analysis46
2007 Distribution of UFE as Percent of ERCOT Load
UFD03
0.0
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8.0
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-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
UFE as Percent of ERCOT Load
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T L
oad
Initial Final True-Up
UFE 2007 Analysis47
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-300
0
-200
0
-100
0-8
00-6
00-4
00-2
00 020
040
060
080
010
0012
0014
0016
00
UFE (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Inte
rva
ls w
ith
UF
E V
alu
es
UFE 2006 UFE 2007Initial Settlement
Distribution of UFE MW 2006 vs. 2007 - Initial Settlement
UFD04
UFE 2007 Analysis48
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-150
0-9
00-7
00-5
00-3
00-1
00 100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
UFE (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Inte
rva
ls w
ith
UF
E V
alu
es
UFE 2006 UFE 2007Final Settlement
Distribution of UFE MW 2006 vs. 2007 - Final Settlement
UFD05
UFE 2007 Analysis49
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-100
0-9
00-8
00-7
00-6
00-5
00-4
00-3
00-2
00-1
00 010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
010
0011
0012
0013
0014
0015
0016
00
UFE (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Inte
rva
ls w
ith
UF
E V
alu
es
UFE 2006 UFE 2007True Up Settlement
Distribution of UFE MW 2006 vs. 2007 – True Up Settlement
UFD06
UFE 2007 Analysis50
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2006 vs 2007 – Initial Settlement
UFD07
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE 2006 UFE 2007Initial Settlement
UFE 2007 Analysis51
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2006 vs 2007 – Final Settlement
UFD08
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE 2006 UFE 2007Final Settlement
UFE 2007 Analysis52
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2006 vs 2007 – True Up Settlement
UFD09
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE 2006 UFE 2007True Up Settlement
UFE 2007 Analysis53
UFE Distribution
Initial
UFE 2007 Analysis54
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=1
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
7 0
20 1
24 1
28 1
39 1
63 2
141 5
275 9
570 19
927 31
1310 44
1699 57
1982 67
2277 77
2585 87
2790 94
2871 96
2920 98
2929 98
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - January
UFD10
UFE 2007 Analysis55
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=2
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
11 0
49 2
146 5
360 13
726 27
1177 44
1630 61
2022 75
2309 86
2494 93
2583 96
2660 99
2683 100
2687 100
2688 100
2688 100
2688 100
2688 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - February
UFD11
UFE 2007 Analysis56
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=3
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
2 0
21 1
71 2
193 6
521 18
815 27
1255 42
1798 60
2397 81
2717 91
2922 98
2952 99
2967 100
2970 100
2972 100
2972 100
2972 100
2972 100
2972 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - March
UFD12
UFE 2007 Analysis57
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=4
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
22 0. 76
25 0. 87
30 1. 04
41 1. 42
77 2. 67
135 4. 69
163 5. 66
200 6. 94
255 8. 85
445 15. 45
715 24. 83
1237 42. 95
1779 61. 77
2283 79. 27
2628 91. 25
2802 97. 29
2850 98. 96
2866 99. 51
2871 99. 69
2877 99. 90
2879 99. 97
2880 100. 00 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - April
UFD13
UFE 2007 Analysis58
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=5
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
4 0
38 1
153 5
401 13
742 25
1402 47
2119 71
2513 84
2727 92
2874 97
2947 99
2968 100
2975 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - May
UFD14
UFE 2007 Analysis59
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=6
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
15 1
23 1
26 1
51 2
153 5
467 16
998 35
1659 58
2276 79
2665 93
2815 98
2860 99
2879 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - June
UFD15
UFE 2007 Analysis60
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=7
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
13 0
28 1
84 3
219 7
476 16
982 33
1631 55
2293 77
2699 91
2881 97
2966 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - July
UFD16
UFE 2007 Analysis61
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=8
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
16 1
45 2
239 9
577 22
1375 53
2129 82
2539 98
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - August
UFD17
UFE 2007 Analysis62
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=9
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
15 1
60 2
237 8
605 21
1195 41
1937 67
2465 86
2796 97
2870 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - September
UFD18
UFE 2007 Analysis63
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=10
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
12 0
21 1
44 1
130 4
249 8
458 15
801 27
1296 44
1701 57
2269 76
2730 92
2881 97
2912 98
2946 99
2949 99
2952 99
2956 99
2960 99
2966 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - October
UFD19
UFE 2007 Analysis64
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=11
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
1 0
14 0
28 1
46 2
62 2
71 2
154 5
282 10
570 20
1052 36
1511 52
2064 72
2452 85
2621 91
2718 94
2809 97
2856 99
2874 100
2884 100
2884 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - November
UFD20
UFE 2007 Analysis65
Set t l ement =1 I ni t i al Mont h=12
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
23 0. 77
37 1. 24
43 1. 44
58 1. 95
90 3. 02
111 3. 73
139 4. 67
200 6. 72
305 10. 25
565 18. 99
985 33. 10
1430 48. 05
1831 61. 53
2167 72. 82
2424 81. 45
2678 89. 99
2797 93. 99
2868 96. 37
2939 98. 76
2961 99. 50
2975 99. 97
2976 100. 00 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500
UFE Distribution 2007Initial - December
UFD21
UFE 2007 Analysis66
UFE Distribution
Final
UFE 2007 Analysis67
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=1
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
16 1
21 1
27 1
38 1
124 4
275 9
571 19
982 33
1440 48
1894 64
2243 75
2620 88
2818 95
2930 98
2974 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500
UFE Distribution 2007Final - January
UFD22
UFE 2007 Analysis68
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=2
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
2 0
12 0
67 2
176 7
434 16
881 33
1382 51
1857 69
2253 84
2492 93
2574 96
2638 98
2674 99
2687 100
2688 100
2688 100
2688 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007Final - February
UFD23
UFE 2007 Analysis69
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=3
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
32 1
107 4
355 12
848 29
1597 54
2219 75
2694 91
2914 98
2955 99
2968 100
2971 100
2972 100
2972 100
2972 100
2972 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
UFE Distribution 2007Final - March
UFD24
UFE 2007 Analysis70
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=4
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
7 0. 24
9 0. 31
12 0. 42
19 0. 66
25 0. 87
44 1. 53
94 3. 26
137 4. 76
183 6. 35
307 10. 66
703 24. 41
1319 45. 80
2015 69. 97
2531 87. 88
2761 95. 87
2837 98. 51
2860 99. 31
2865 99. 48
2868 99. 58
2873 99. 76
2878 99. 93
2880 100. 00 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
UFE Distribution 2007Final - April
UFD25
UFE 2007 Analysis71
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=5
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
24 1
119 4
379 13
804 27
1537 52
2240 75
2606 88
2813 95
2944 99
2973 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
UFE Distribution 2007Final - May
UFD26
UFE 2007 Analysis72
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=6
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
18 1
51 2
257 9
695 24
1527 53
2219 77
2690 93
2811 98
2869 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
UFE Distribution 2007Final - June
UFD27
UFE 2007 Analysis73
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=7
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
51 2
258 9
852 29
1751 59
2395 80
2774 93
2911 98
2964 100
2973 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
UFE Distribution 2007Final - July
UFD28
UFE 2007 Analysis74
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=8
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
19 1
138 5
478 18
1186 46
2014 78
2508 97
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
UFE Distribution 2007Final - August
UFD29
UFE 2007 Analysis75
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=9
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
4 0
26 1
88 3
414 14
912 32
1719 60
2327 81
2751 96
2864 99
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
UFE Distribution 2007Final - September
UFD30
UFE 2007 Analysis76
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=10
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
13 0
26 1
138 5
429 14
966 32
1643 55
2313 78
2807 94
2908 98
2916 98
2942 99
2948 99
2949 99
2952 99
2958 99
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
UFE Distribution 2007Final - October
UFD31
UFE 2007 Analysis77
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=11
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
3 0
9 0
14 0
19 1
36 1
54 2
106 4
471 16
970 34
1483 51
2074 72
2469 86
2729 95
2833 98
2880 100
2884 100
2884 100
2884 100
2884 100
2884 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007Final - November
UFD32
UFE 2007 Analysis78
Set t l ement =4 Fi nal Mont h=12
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
12 0
14 0
22 1
30 1
65 2
203 7
524 18
969 33
1553 52
2040 69
2535 85
2762 93
2863 96
2940 99
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007Final - December
UFD33
UFE 2007 Analysis79
UFE Distribution
True Up
UFE 2007 Analysis80
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=1
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
16 1
21 1
27 1
38 1
124 4
272 9
565 19
977 33
1437 48
1893 64
2237 75
2612 88
2818 95
2929 98
2974 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - January
UFD34
UFE 2007 Analysis81
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=2
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
2 0
12 0
65 2
177 7
436 16
888 33
1387 52
1864 69
2256 84
2491 93
2574 96
2637 98
2673 99
2687 100
2688 100
2688 100
2688 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - February
UFD35
UFE 2007 Analysis82
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=3
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
33 1
107 4
355 12
851 29
1595 54
2222 75
2693 91
2913 98
2955 99
2968 100
2971 100
2972 100
2972 100
2972 100
2972 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - March
UFD36
UFE 2007 Analysis83
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=4
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
7 0. 24
9 0. 31
12 0. 42
19 0. 66
25 0. 87
44 1. 53
94 3. 26
138 4. 79
186 6. 46
312 10. 83
712 24. 72
1339 46. 49
2029 70. 45
2534 87. 99
2768 96. 11
2837 98. 51
2860 99. 31
2865 99. 48
2869 99. 62
2873 99. 76
2878 99. 93
2880 100. 00 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - April
UFD37
UFE 2007 Analysis84
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=5
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
25 1
127 4
382 13
814 27
1551 52
2256 76
2616 88
2817 95
2946 99
2974 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - May
UFD38
UFE 2007 Analysis85
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=6
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
19 1
53 2
268 9
710 25
1562 54
2257 78
2694 94
2820 98
2870 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - June
UFD39
UFE 2007 Analysis86
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=7
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
2 0
54 2
276 9
888 30
1777 60
2413 81
2778 93
2912 98
2964 100
2973 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - July
UFD40
UFE 2007 Analysis87
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=8
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
20 1
144 6
481 19
1186 46
2016 78
2505 97
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100
2592 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - August
UFD41
UFE 2007 Analysis88
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=9
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
4 0
26 1
87 3
413 14
903 31
1717 60
2320 81
2748 95
2864 99
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100
2880 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - September
UFD42
UFE 2007 Analysis89
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=10
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
13 0
26 1
135 5
422 14
952 32
1628 55
2298 77
2803 94
2908 98
2916 98
2941 99
2948 99
2949 99
2952 99
2958 99
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - October
UFD43
UFE 2007 Analysis90
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=11
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
3 0
11 0
16 1
19 1
36 1
52 2
112 4
487 17
991 34
1518 53
2105 73
2494 86
2735 95
2841 99
2881 100
2884 100
2884 100
2884 100
2884 100
2884 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - November
UFD44
UFE 2007 Analysis91
Set t l ement =5 Tr ue Up Mont h=12
CUM.FREQ.
CUM.PCT.
0 0
0 0
0 0
12 0
14 0
22 1
30 1
66 2
208 7
526 18
971 33
1552 52
2046 69
2543 85
2767 93
2863 96
2940 99
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100
2976 100 10. 5
9. 5
8. 5
7. 5
6. 5
5. 5
4. 5
3. 5
2. 5
1. 5
0. 5
- 0. 5
- 1. 5
- 2. 5
- 3. 5
- 4. 5
- 5. 5
- 6. 5
- 7. 5
- 8. 5
- 9. 5
- 10. 5
FREQUENCY
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
UFE Distribution 2007True Up - December
UFD45
UFE 2007 Analysis92
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2007 Initial Settlement plus95% Confidence Interval
CIP01
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Day of the Week 2007
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis93CIP02
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2007Final Settlement plus95% Confidence Interval
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Day of the Week 2007
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis94CIP03
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2007True-Up Settlement plus95% Confidence Interval
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Day of the Week 2007
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis95CIP04
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2007Comparison of Medians for Initial & Final
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Day of the Week 2007
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Initial Final
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2007 Analysis96
Seasonal Comparison - Spring 2007UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA01
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2007 Analysis97
Seasonal Comparison - Summer 2007UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA02
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2007 Analysis98
Seasonal Comparison - Fall 2007UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA03
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2007 Analysis99
Seasonal Comparison - Winter 2007UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA04
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2007 Analysis100SEA05
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Initial SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis101SEA06
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Final SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis102SEA07
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – True UpUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis103
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadInitial Settlement - 2007
MPL01
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 52000 57000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
UFE 2007 Analysis104
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadFinal Settlement - 2007
MPL02
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 52000 57000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
UFE 2007 Analysis105
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadTrue-Up Settlement – 2007
MPL03
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 52000 57000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
UFE 2007 Analysis106
Comparison of Median Percent UFEInitial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2007
MPL04
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 52000 57000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
Initial Final True Up Regression on Total Aggregated Load
UFE 2007 Analysis107
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs LoadInitial Settlement - 2007
MPL05
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 52000 57000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE Ceiling = $601 per mWh
UFE 2007 Analysis108
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load Final Settlement - 2007
MPL06
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 52000 57000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE Ceiling = $601 per mWh
UFE 2007 Analysis109
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load True Up Settlement - 2007
MPL07
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 52000 57000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
Load Wt'd Avg MCPE Ceiling = $601 per mWh
UFE 2007 Analysis110
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load for Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2007
MPL08
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
22000 27000 32000 37000 42000 47000 52000 57000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Initial Final True Up Reg on MCPE vs Load
UFE 2007 Analysis111
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE Initial Settlement - 2007
MPL09
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
-15.0 -13.0 -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
UFE 2007 Analysis112MPL10
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE Final Settlement - 2007
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
-11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
UFE 2007 Analysis113MPL11
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE True-Up Settlement - 2007
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
-11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
UFE 2007 Analysis114
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE forInitial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2007
MPL12
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
-15.0 -13.0 -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Initial Final True UP Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
UFE 2007 Analysis115
Sum of Dollars from Positive UFEacross the Week 2007
UCT02
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis116
Sum of Dollars from Negative UFEacross the Week 2007
UCT03
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis117UCT04
Sum of Dollars from Absolute Value of UFE across the Week 2007
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Day of the Week
Do
llar
s
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis118
Sum of Dollars from Net UFE across the Week 2007
UCT05
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2007 Analysis119UCT06
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2007Positive and Negative UFE
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
UFE 2007 Analysis120
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2007Positive and Negative UFE
UCT07
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2007 Analysis121UCT08
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2007Positive and Negative UFE
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
UFE 2007 Analysis122UCT09
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2007Positive and Negative UFE
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
UFE 2007 Analysis123UCT10
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2007Positive and Negative UFE
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
UFE 2007 Analysis124UCT11
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2007Absolute Value and Net UFE
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
llar
s
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2007 Analysis125
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2007Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT12
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2007 Analysis126UCT13
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2007Absolute Value and Net UFE
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
llar
s
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2007 Analysis127UCT14
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2007Absolute Value and Net UFE
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2007 Analysis128UCT15
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2007 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2007 Analysis129
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2007Positive and Negative UFE
UCT16
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2007 Analysis130UCT17
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2007Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2007 Analysis131UCT18
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2007Positive and Negative UFE
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2007 Analysis132UCT19
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2007Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2007 Analysis133UCT20
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2007Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2007 Analysis134
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2007 Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT21
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
llar
s
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2007 Analysis135UCT22
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2007Absolute Value and Net UFE
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Day of the Week
Do
llar
s
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2007 Analysis136UCT23
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2007Absolute Value and Net UFE
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2007 Analysis137UCT24
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2007 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2007 Analysis138UCT25
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2007Absolute Value and Net UFE
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2007 Analysis139
Since 2002, Average and Median NET UFE as a Percent of ERCOT Load continues to move in a positive direction.
Average and Median ABS UFE as a Percent of ERCOT Load remained the same for 2006-2007. In fact, for 2002-2007, Average and Median ABS UFE as a Percent of ERCOT Load is trending downward.
For 2003-2007, the Standard Deviation of NET UFE as a Percent of ERCOT Load and ABS UFE as a Percent of ERCOT Load are trending downward.
Daily patterns of UFE as a Percent of ERCOT Load appear to be related to the magnitude of the load.
UFE 2007 Analysis Observations
UFE 2007 Analysis140
Improve Business Profile ID assignment process Improve models using Round 2 load research
data Implement settlement using 15 minute interval
data from AMI meters where appropriate Evaluate the application of lagged dynamic
profiling techniques to the ERCOT System Continue to evaluate improvements to algorithms
for missing AMI, IDR and NIDR data estimation To improve distribution loss estimations, PWG
should consider recommending that TDSP’s perform updated loss studies.
Steps to Reduce UFE
