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The Ukrainian Crisis 2013-2015 1 The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015
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The Ukrainian Crisis2013-2015
1The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015
EventsEuroMaidan
Annexation of Crimea
Conflict in Donbass
Downing of MH17
ActorsRussia+Ukraine
Russia+USA
Russia+the EU+other Ios (G8, NATO, COE)
Crisis or CrisES?
Combination of many different
November 2013-
February 2014
February 2014- March
2014April 2014-
Present July 2014
EuroMaidan Annexation of Crimea
Conflict in Donbass
Downing of MH17
EuroMaidan BeginsNovember 21, Ukrainian President
Victor Yanukovych backs out from the negotiations for a Deep and
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU
Instead, he resumes negotiations with the Russian Federation, for an Eurasian
Custom Union, together with KAZAKHSTAN & BELARUS
In Kiev, people start protesting in the main square, Maidan Nazaleznosti
Clashes with the police went on for months…
On February 18, 2014 EuroMaidan experiences its deadliest day (100 casualties)
There is an attempt to find a compromise between the government and the opposition, at the presence of: – Russian President’s Special Envoy– France, Germany and Poland’s Foreign Ministers (on behalf of the EU)
• But before the Agreement could be implemented, Yanukovych flees from Kyiv and takes refuge in Rostov-on-Don (Russia).
EuroMaidan: the developments
This generates a great degree of chaos because
Kyiv Removes
Yanukovych from his presidential
role
Appoints Turchynov as temporary
President
Moscow
Claims that the Constitutional
procedures for the President’s removal were not respected
Still considers Yanukovych as the
legitimate President
November 2013-
February 2014
February 2014- March
2014April 2014-
Present July 2014
EuroMaidan Annexation of Crimea
Conflict in Donbass
Downing of MH17
The facts 1/2:
Right after Yanukovych was deposed, pro-Russian citizens started to mobilize in Crimea
There were many reasons for this:– The new President, Turchynov was pro-EU– The new Government had repealed a controversial Law on the
Principles of State Language Policy that gave Russian (and other minority languages) the status of co-official language together with Ukrainian Turchinov later blocked this repeal in a conciliatory attempt
The facts 2/2:
Soon, local self-defense units were established, who:– took control of governmental buildings, airports, roads, TV and radio
stations – appointed a new local Leader, Sergeiy Aksenov– drafted a Declaration of Independence from Ukraine and indicted a
Referendum to approve it on March 16, 2014
How was this possible?
These “self-defense units” were backed by thousands of little green men(http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26
- Military gears
- No distinctive signs
- Russian accents
- Russian plaques on their lorries
- - Russian arms
Reactions
On March 1, 2014 President Putin submitted a request to the Council of the Federation (Russia’s Upper House) to deploy troops to Crimea “to restore peace” and to protect “Russian compatriots” (but in fact Ukraine claimed the presence of Russian troops since February 24).
The UNSC met 5 times in March to talk about the situation in Crimea. The discussion was extremely polarized
• Those Little Green Men are Russian soldiers
• Russia has violated the terms of the Black Sea Fleet Status of Forces Agreements
• Russia has violated the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine
• Russia has breached the prohibition of the use of force and thus committed an act of aggression
• The Referendum should not be recognized as valid
• Inconsistent approach and several legal justifications
• 1) They are not Russian soldiers• 2) They are Russian soldiers but they
were already in Crimea according to the lease Agreement between Russia and Ukraine
• 4) We intervened because Yanukovych and Aksenov asked us to restore peace in Crimea (intervention by invitation)
• 5) We intervened to protect the rights of our soldiers, of the Russian-speaking population in Crimea and to allow “our compatriots” to express their free will through the referendum (protection of nationals abroad and right to self-determination)
… Russia vetoed a draft UNSC Resolution on the
Territorial Integrity of Ukraine (March 15, 2014)
The Referendum for the independence took place on March 16, 2014 and the official results reported
After a formal request of accession to the Federation, President Putin declares Crimea as part of Russia on March 18, 2014.
96% in favor of secession and reunion with Russia
Valid?
Consequences
Lack of recognition (int’l law principle ex injuria jus non oritur)
UNGA Resolution reaffirming Territorial Integrity of Ukraine ( 68/262, March 24, 2014)– 100 countries in favor; 11 against; 58 abstained; 24 absent (text:
http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/68/PV.80)
• First round of sanctions from the USA and the EU
November 2013-
February 2014
February 2014- March
2014April 2014-
Present July 2014
EuroMaidan Annexation of Crimea
Conflict in Donbass
Downing of MH17
What is Donbass?
South-Eastern Region of Ukraine of Russian-speaking majority.
Facts
Prompted by Crimea’s annexation, pro-Russian separatists proclaimed the independence of two Republics: – Donetsk People’s Republic– Luhansk People’s Republic
They started taking control of governmental buildings and to build barricades around them in several cities
Held unrecognized referendums in May
Alliance of Novorossiya
Warfare
Ukraine’s military operations against the rebels start in April 2014.
Many Neo-Nazis extremists are fighting alongside Ukraine (mainly Svoboda and the Right Sector)
On the other hand, Russia is believed to be supporting the rebels through arms and ammunitions, under the guise of humanitarian aid. – New round of sanctions
Key moments
May 2, 2014 the Odessa “Massacre”
May-June 2014 Bombing of Mariupol
May 2014; September 2014- January 2015 Battles of Donetsk Airport
Some figures:
Total number of casualties: 8050
Total number of refugees, IDPs or asylum seekers: 1,075,736 (according to UNHCR)
November 2013-
February 2014
February 2014- March
2014April 2014-
Present July 2014
EuroMaidan Annexation of Crimea
Conflict in Donbass
Downing of MH17
MH17 A Malaysia Airline Flight (MH17) headed
from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur is shot near the village of Grabove (held by the rebels)
All 298 passengers are dead, the majority of them are of Dutch nationality
Whose fault? Ukrainian President Poroshenko calls it a
“terroristic act”; US President Obama blames a missile shot from the rebel-controlled territory and holds that Russia’s help was crucial; Russia’s President Putin blames Ukraine.
The UNSC adopts a Resolution on July 21, 2014 to condemn the attack and demand access to crash site (text:
An inquiry commission is set up to clarify the facts. It is led by the Netherlands, as the country with the highest number of victims.
…
Yet another round of sanctions is issued against Russia at the end of July 2014.
In July 2015, Russia vetoed a UNSC Resolution to set up an international Tribunal.
In October 2015, the inquiry commission issued its report.
Report of the Inquiry Commission The MH17 was shot by a BUK Missile
» It is owned both by Russian and Ukrainian armies
» Howevever, according to the State-owned company Almaz-Antey that specific model has not been produced by Russia since 1999
» The report has not established liability. This will be done, instead, by a criminal investigation by a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to be concluded in 2016.
What have other actors done in reaction to the crisis?
29
Imposed sanctions targeting:
Individuals Companies Russia as a State• Putin’s inner circle
• Members of the Government and the Military (both Ukrainian and Russian)
• Banking and financial institutions
• Energy-related companies
• Defense sector
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015
Other countries joined
30
Non-EU countries that have introduced sanctionsEU countries that have introduced sanctions
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015
31
Some targets…
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015
Material scope of restrictive measures
Embargo on arms and
related material
Prohibition on exports of dual use goods and technology for
military use
Assets freezes
Visa bans Travel bans Other restrictions
32The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015
Motives behind the adoption of restrictive
measures• “[…] certain persons responsible for actions which undermine or
threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, including actions on the future
status of any part of the territory which are contrary to the Ukrainian Constitution, and natural or legal persons, entities or
bodies associated with them.” (COUNCIL REGULATION (EU) No 269/2014 of 17 March 2014)
• “[…] actions and policies of persons including persons who have asserted governmental authority in the Crimean region without the authorization of the Government of Ukraine that
undermine democratic processes and institutions in Ukraine; threaten its peace, security, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity; and contribute to the misappropriation of its assets,
constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.”
(EXECUTIVE ORDER (US President) No. 13660) 33
How has Russia responded?It has imposed
countersanctions, including an
embargo on food and agricultural products coming from the EU, the USA and some
other sanctioning countries
34The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015
What have sanctions accomplished so far?
35
They have damaged Russia’s economy and made the ruble collapse
They have pushed
Russia to strengthen ties with
other countries
They have severely damaged
EU economy with a loss
of €100 billion
They have NOT attained the goal they
were adopted for
Besides sanctions, what’s the role of the EU and other IOs in solving the crisis?
March 21, 2014 OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) establishes Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine
April 17, 2014 first attempt to solve the crisis through Geneva Talks (EU, USA, Ukraine and Russia)
July 24, 2014 deployment of OSCE observers to the Russian Checkpoints of Donetsk and Gukovo
September 5, 2014 First Minsk Protocol signed to implement ceasefire; September 19, 2014 a Memorandum was added
February 11, 2015 Second Minsk Protocol signed, to implement immediate ceasefire
Ceasefire has never been fully implemented so far
Diplomatic Measures from other IOsHalting of EU-Russia cooperation
projects on visa mattersSuspension of Russia’s
Membership from G8 (now, G7)Suspension of Russia’s voting
rights in Council of Europe (COE)
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