Six (6 ) years experience in growth consulting and market research. Particular expertise in: Research and consulting experience on sub-Saharan Africa’s automotive & transportation sector
including rail, commercial vehicles & passenger vehicles Research and consulting experience on sub-Saharan Africa’s infrastructure sectors including
social, transport, energy and water sectors
James Fungai Maposa (Mphil., BSc. (Hons.))
Consulting Manager – Industrial
Frost & Sullivan Africa
Follow me on:
za.linkedin.com/in/jamesfmaposa/
3
Focus Points
Focus Point #
Analyst biography 2
Africa – Key Infrastructure and Trade Statistics 4
Infrastructure Development in Sub-Saharan Africa 5
Key challenges 6
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Trade Corridors 7
Overview of Transport Infrastructure Major Projects 10
Transport Corridors – How is trade corridor development and implementation expected to evolve over time?
11
Conclusion & Key Takeaways 12
Contacts 16
Africa – Key Infrastructure and
Trade Statistics$403 billion
Is the current spending on infrastructure
development in Sub-Saharan Africa
% of investment in Sub-Saharan
Africa on transport
infrastructure
56%
70%In land-locked
countries, transport
accounts for 70%
Is the number of
countries in Africa which have regular
power outages (out
of 55)
30Expected
increase in intra-regional trade volumes
in Sub-Saharan
Africa from 34.9Mt in
2009
120.4Mt 50 years It will take 50
years for most countries in
Africa to reach universal access
to modern infrastructure
50%Infrastructure development
has been responsible for more than half
of Africa’s improved economic
performance
799MtExpected
increase in Sub-Saharan African trade volumes from 376Mt in
2009
of the value of exported
goods
*based on active projects in 2011
Source: World Bank and Frost and Sullivan analysis
Infrastructure Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Overview of Development in Key Sectors
< 0.5
0.5 – 1.0
1.0 – 5.0
5.0 – 10.0
0.0 – 15.0
>15.0
Legend: Investment ($ billion)
Transport
$174 billion
• High value investments (>$1 billion)
• Focus on road, rail and port networks
Energy
$139 billion
• Historical reliance on thermal/hydropower
• Increased focus on driving renewables
*based on active projects in 2012Source: Frost and Sullivan analysis
Total investment in ongoing infrastructure projects in Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding ICT & Telecoms) amounts to
$378 billion
Water
$20 billionSocial
$45 billion
• Secondary Focus for Govts
• Could pose major risk in medium/long-term
• Driven by Millenium Development Goals
• High reliance on Development Aid
6
WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF
TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS?
AFRICA:5.3% Growth (2012)5.6% Growth (2013)f
KEY CHALLENGE:Understanding
Transport & Logistics
7
Planned Projects:
SSA Trade Corridors: What is the current status of corridors and what is planned for the future?
Source: SADC, Frost & Sullivan Analysis
KEY:Railway
Key Trunk Road Trans-African Highway
Missing network link
Rail Road
Note: Planned Projects and Investment are based on projections by SADC for the SADC region only, to 2027
Sub-Saharan Trade Corridors are currently hindered by a significant lack of connectivity, and operational unreliability
Planned Investment:
Planned Projects:
Planned Investment:
26
$9.35 Billion
61
$5.98 Billion
8
African Trade Corridors – what is driving their development and why?
C
B Bauxite
Uranium
Gold
Copper
Diamonds
Oil
Gas
Timber
KEY:
Iron Ore
Coal
C
CC
CC
C
C
BB
B
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
KEY: Corridors
Current roads
Proposed roads
Current rail
Proposed rail
Current and proposed ports
Resources, Agriculture and Retail are the major drivers of trade in Africa
9
Sub-Saharan African Trade Corridors – what does their development mean for trade?
2030CAGR
240Mt 408Mt
2009
617Mt
2020
70Mt 176Mt 300Mt
Southern Africa
East Africa
West Africa
Central Africa
45Mt 96Mt 181Mt
21Mt 43Mt 77Mt
4.5%
6.8%
7.1%
6.4%
Source: Africa Transport Outlook 2040
African trade volumes are expected to Triple by 2030, driven by improved transportation infrastructure in East and West African
10
Mega Projects: Extract of major infrastructure projects aimed at improving logistics efficiency
$2 billion
900km railway linking port of
Nacala to Moatize
$5.2 billion
Rehabilitation of railway to improve transhipment
$5.3 billion
Construction of a new port in
Northern Kenya
$2.23 billion
Railway linking
Tanzania to Rwanda
$1.4 billion
Tema-Accra railway link
$1.2 billion
Increase port capacity from 2.7 to 11.0 million tonnes
$6 billion
Development of a new deep sea port
*based on active projects in 2013
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
$9.34 billion
1,100 km railway linking Botswana to Mozambique via Zimbabwe ,
new port at Matatuine
11
Transport Corridors – How is trade corridor development and implementation expected to evolve over time?
1
Southern Africa will drive trade corridor implementation in the short-termTimeframe: 2020
Southern and East Africa will connect, ramping up trade in the medium-termTimeframe: 2030
West and North will lag significantly in corridor development and implementationTimeframe: 2040+
2
3
Trade is predicted to evolve in three distinct phases, positioning East Africa as a key trade hub in the medium term
3
2
1
12
Africa’s Trade Corridor Evolution – Four Key Takeaways
Sub-Saharan African trade volumes are expected to
increase to 1,175Mt by 2030, led by high volume growth in East and West Africa
East Africa’s established intra-regional connectivity and improved regulatory environment is likely to drive access to markets in multiple countries
Intra-regional trade corridors are expected to near completion over the next three decades, in the following sequence: Southern Africa (2020), East Africa (2030), West & North Africa (2040+).
1
2
4
In West Africa, taking products to market will be focused on individual countries in the short-to-medium term
3
13
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