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UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
September 30 – October 1, 2004, Dublin, Ireland
Jiří SpitzENVIROS, s. r. o.Czech Republic
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
GHG Emission Projections in the Czech Republic – Methodological Approach
Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Presentation structure
• importance of GHG emission projections
• projections with measures, with additional measures and without measures
• why to have even more scenarios
• methodology
– tools
– accounting of mitigation measures
– scenario without measures
• results comparison
• sensitivity analysis
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Importance of GHG emissions projections
Inventory of GHG Emissions
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Gg
CO
2ekv inventory
Kyoto target
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Importance of GHG emissions projections – contd.
• From the foregoing graph might seem GHG emissions are not an issue for the Czech Republic. But:
– EU is likely to be more progressive in climate protection than Kyoto
– ~14 kg CO2ekv per capita in the CR vs. ~11 kg average in the EU
– the emission decrease was substantially influenced by drop of economy
– trading with emission permits (national allocation plan)
– feeling of general responsibility for the climate
• GHG emission projections are important and not only in NC4 context.
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Scenario with measures (2003 projections)
• measures realised between1995 – 2000 (accounted in projections)
– clean air legislation
– state programmes
• Czech Energy Agency (support of energy efficiency & RES)
• State Environmental Fund (air protection)
• GEF efficient lighting
• transport
• support of forestation
• alternative motor fuels
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Scenario with measures (2003 projections) – contd.
• measures realised after 2000 (with exception of wastes not yet accounted in projections)
– new Clean Air Act
– act on IPPC
• effective from 2003 for new installations
• effective from 2012 for existing ones
– act on wastes
– act on packaging
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Scenario with additional measures (2003 projections)
• additional measures
– National Energy Efficiency & RES Programme
• the programme sets indicative targets in emission reduction
– environmental tax on energy
• politically controversial issue
– increased support of RES
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Scenario without measures (2003 projections)
• scenario as if none of the listed measures would have been realised
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Why to have even more scenarios?
Comparison of different GHG emision projections
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
% o
f 19
90
inventory
Kyoto target
national target (2001)
1994 (1NC)
1996 (2NC)
1997
2000
2001 (3NC)
2003
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Why to have even more scenarios? – contd.
• sensitivity analysis to the most unreliable inputs
– prediction of the GDP is more difficult due to two „economical shocks“
• transition from planned to market economy
• accession to the EU
– (rather) political issues
• future of the nuclear energy
• utilisation of domestic lignite
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Proposed scenarios
• three GDP scenarios– reference – average annual growth 3.6 %
– low – average annual growth 2.9 %
– high – average annual growth 4.3 %
• two nuclear + lignite scenarios– no new nuclear power plants + extension of lignite mines
– new nuclear plants possible after 2015 + no further extension of lignite mines
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Methodology - tools
• energy sector
– energy demand
• MEDEE-like spreadsheets
• CGE model
– technology mix
• EFOM/ENV model
– model type
• linear optimising
• technology oriented
• bottom-up
– all combustion processes in all sectors & ferrous metallurgy
– CO2, NOX, SO2, CO, particulates, fugitive CH4 from coal & natural gas
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Methodology – tools – contd.
• agriculture & forestry – specialised models
• CO2 from lime desulphurisation – calculated „manually“
• CO2 in industry – spreadsheet model (important only cement + glass)
• waste management – spreadsheet model
• N2O – spreadsheet model on the sector level
• HFCs, PFCs, SF6 – spreadsheet model on the national level
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Methodology – accounting of measures
• measures incorporated into the energy demand forecast
– technological standards
• thermal insulation of buildings
• minimal efficiencies of energy technologies
• measures built-in in the technology model
– technology development
– fuel switching
– demand-side saving measures (above requirements of standards)
– taxes and subsidies on energy
– national emission ceilings
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Methodology – accounting of measures – contd.
• measures accounted outside models
– quantified
• realised and planned JI projects
• investments realised within state energy efficiency & RES programmes
– estimated
• non-technology part of state energy efficiency & RES programmes
– omitted due to lack of data
• some political and declarative measures, where the benefit can be hardly quantified
• what should be added for NC4
– trading with emission permits
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Methodology – scenario without measures
• the most complicated scenario
• small simplification – all mitigation programmes began after 1992
• calculation started form scenario with measures
– increase of energy demand - removing insulation and efficiency standards
– removing taxes and subsidies on energy applied after 1995
– addition of saved emissions from state energy efficiency & RES programmes
– addition of emissions from JI projects
– removing of impact of clean air legislation (fuel switch lignite natural gas) – a spreadsheet task
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Result comparison
GHG emission - Reference Scenario
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
19
90
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
[ G
g ]
inventory
with measures
without measures
with additional measures
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Result comparison – contd.
• main drivers
– scenario with measures
• clean air legislation (mainly SO2 problem) – 3716 Gg CO2ekv in 2000
– large installations equipped with cleaning technologies
– small installations switched from coal to natural gas
– support to gasification in households
• state energy efficiency & RES programmes – 3442 Gg CO2ekv in 2000
– scenario with additional measures
• introduction of very strong ecological tax on energy + supported feed-in tariffs for electricity from RES – 16518 Gg CO2ekv in 2020
• new National Energy Efficiency & RES Programme – 6614 Gg CO2ekv in 2020
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Sensitivity analysis
Comparison of Scenarios with Measures
110 000
120 000
130 000
140 000
150 000
160 000
170 000
180 000
190 000
19
90
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
[ G
g ]
inventory
high
reference
low
high - nuclear
reference - nuclear
low - nuclear
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Sensitivity analysis – contd.
• influence of GDP growth
– change of 0.7 % in average GDP growth 5000 Gg CO2ekv in 2010
• influence of new nuclear power plants
– new NPP could be finished around the year 2020
• saving of another 5000 Gg CO2ekv in 2020
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Conclusion
• it is possible and useful to develop all three scenarios
• additional scenarios were calculated as a kind of sensitivity analysis
• there remain issues to be solved
– trading with emission permits
– assessment of impact of political, organisational, voluntary and declarative measures
UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin
Thank for your attention!
Contacts:ENVIROS, s. r. o.
Prague, Czech Republic
Phone: +420 284 007 499
Fax: +420 284 861 245
E-mail: [email protected]
www.enviros.cz