PETEX 2018

28 th November 2018

Olympia, London

UNLOCKING MER AT A SUB-BASIN LEVEL

THROUGH INDUSTRY COLLABORATION

OUTER MORAY FIRTH SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP

Presenting: Colin Percival – The Parkmead Group

Coauthors: P Lindop; P Baltensperger; S Brown; P Doubleday; C Percival; J Seedhouse;

and P Taylor

INTRODUCTION

• LOCATION

• AREA PLANS

PHASE 1 DEFINING THE SIZE OF THE PRIZE

PHASE 2 ACCESSING THE PRIZE

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

TALK FORMAT

OUTER MORAY FIRTH LOCATION MAP

020021

022

013014

015

019

012

026 027 028 029

0016

0007

016

030025

201

018

0015

0080070060025

011

009

0001

156

023

0017

0008

017

0002

202

005203

0024 0026

166

ABERDEEN

N

0 50

KM

OUTER MORAY FIRTH AREA – AREA OF INTEREST

Source: Woodmac Pathfinder 17 Feb 15

Piper

Captain

Buzzard

Scott

Alba & Britannia

Balmoral

Claymore

Blake & Ross

Golden

Eagle

Donan &

Lochranza

Buchan

PRODUCTION HISTORY – CAN WE DELIVER THE NEXT PRODUCTION PEAK

INFRASTRUCTURE – LATE 2017

T

Captain

Buzzard

Buchan

T

Ettrick2014

Goldeneye

(CCS)

Scott1997

2001

2007

2009-16

Atlantic

Solitaire

Peregrine

Blackbird

HannayTT

T

T

T

T T T

Britannia

Athena

T

T T

T

1993

1997

1997-2015

2011-15

1977

1998

1986

Claymore

T

MacCulloch

Dumbarton1981

T

BR

AE

-FO

RT

IES

(FP

S)

AlbaT

T

T

1976/1992

Renee

Rubie

BeaulyBrenda

BlenheimNicol

Blair

Burghley

Lochranza

Galley

Duart

Petronella

Highlander

Chanter

IonaSaltire

Scapa

Piper

Rochelle

Bladon

TIvanhoe

Rob RoyHamish Balmoral

Golden Eagle

T

Tartan

T

Fixed Platforms ( 3 - 40 years old)

FPSO (FPV) ( 6 - 20 years old)

Subsea Tieback ( ceased production)

• Only major pipelines shown. No

differentiation on service (oil/gas/both)

• Red – ceased production, may include full decommissioning

T

TT

T

T

T

T

T

Chestnut

CallanishTT

S. Tweedsmuir

Tweedsmuir

T

BrodgarEnocdhu

T

TAlder

CaledoniaT

Ross Blake

T

Cromarty

TT

INFRASTRUCTURE – 2025 DO NOTHING PROJECTION– YET TO BE CONFIRMED

Blake

Buzzard

2014

Scott

2001

2007

Solitaire

Peregrine

T

T

Britannia

T

1993

1977

1998

Claymore

BR

AE

-FO

RT

IES

(FP

S)

Alba

1976/1992

Scapa

Piper

Golden Eagle

T

Fixed Platforms ( 3 - 40 years old)

FPSO (FPV) ( 6 - 20 years old)

Subsea Tieback

T

Callanish

T

BrodgarEnocdhu

T

TAlder

S. Tweedsmuir

TweedsmuirTT

T

Based on Woodmac mid 2016; prior to Efficiency Task Force

• A plan to maximize economic recovery – value not barrels

• A holistic, common view of opportunities and infrastructure

• Requires shared, validated and detailed view of opportunities

• Phase 1 – Understand the Size of the Prize – Exploration, Development,

Reactivation & Sustaining

• Phase 2 – A plan for accessing the Prize

WHAT IS AN AREA PLAN?

Exploration Workgroup decided that existing data sources were not up to the job of being the “shared data repository” required.

New database created from wide range of sources:

• Relinquishment reports;

• Publically available reports and papers (CPR, 10K, Annual Reports, Company websites etc.)

• OGA Open Government Licence publications;

• User non-commercial contributions (SIG & non-SIG members)

Processed to create structured database – fields, unsanctioned discoveries, prospects & leads – with audit trail.

Now known as TROVE and available across all UKCS basins and beyond.

PHASE 1 – DEFINING THE SIZE OF THE PRIZE

What the data was telling us:

• Basin already had delivered three

peaks.

• Published data said it had potential.

PHASE 1 - THE OUTER MORAY FIRTH PRIZE

• The SIG study

has quantified &

increased the

size of the prize.

Total 1,568 MMBOETotal 2,734 MMBOE

Not just

‘Small Pools’

5,856

mmboe

risked by

quoted Pg

122 prospects &

leads with PR of

3.95 bn boe,

risked at 1:10

OGA ‘Small Pools’

quotes 512 mmboe

for MF (excludes

large PUDs)

Includes Shale Oil

PHASE 1 - HAS DATA COLLABORATION DELIVERED ANY BENEFIT?

Normal59%Sour

12%

Heavy Oil23%

HPHT6%

Contingent Resource

Normal98%

Sour0%

Heavy Oil1%

HPHT1%

Prospective Resource

Pre-Area Plan Area Plan Case

More detailed and consistent dataset

58%

10%

11%

8%

4%

9%

Oil

Sour

Gas & G.C.

HPHT

<20o API

20o- 25o API

Contingent ResourceProspective Resource

53%

7%

7%

18%

5%

10%

Oil

Gas & G.C.

Sour

HPHT

<20o API

20o- 25o APIHeavy

Oil

Heavy

Oil

PHASE 1 – HYDROCARBONS IN PLACE VS. COS

In-Place (mmboe)

Geolo

gic

al C

hance o

f S

uccess (

Pg)

The power of data collaboration.

PHASE 1 - DATA INSIGHTS

Open Source Data

SIG Contributed Data

Reservoir Temperature versus Depth

Reservoir Temperature (deg F)

Ve

rtic

al D

ep

th to

HC

Co

nta

ct (f

tss)

0

16,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

18,000

14,000

2500 350200 30015050 100

PHASE 1 - OUTER MORAY FIRTH CONTINGENT RESOURCE

Detail of individual pools held in Trove

Database

Themes:

• Sour

• Heavy

• Small

Heavy and Sour Crudes

• New Facility / major modification of

existing facility

Small Pools

• Potential tiebacks – portfolio for tieback

of the future

• Stranded

• Shared Facility

• FPSO – high deliverability

• SPAR / Buoy – low deliverability

TOTAL RESOURCE ~1.0 BILLION BOE

UNDEVELOPED DUE TO SIZE, FLUID TYPE, RESERVOIR QUALITY – LIKELY TO

REMAIN SO IF TREATED ON AN INDIVIDUAL POOL BASIS – COLLECTIVE SOLUTIONS REQUIRED

Excludes Shale Oil play

PHASE 1 - WHAT DOES THE OUTER MORAY FIRTH HAVE TO OFFER?

Prospects No

Valid Prospects & Leads 298

Downgraded Leads 77

Total 375

Total with duplicate

evaluations & stacked

438

Prospective Resource

No with Prospective

Resource

208

Sum of P50 PR (mmboe) 5,856

Sum of risked P50 PR

(mmboe)

994

Average PgTertiary / Sub-Tertiary

0.20.28 / 0.17

Prospect &

Leads

PHASE 1 - PROSPECTIVE RESOURCE

TOTAL 5856 MMBOE UNRISKED

994 MMBOE RISKED

STRUCTURAL TRAPS DOMINATE

STRATIGRAPHIC TRAPS DOMINATE

Excludes P&L without PR (83)

STRATIGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF PROSPECTS AND LEADS

8 P&L not assigned to stratigraphic units

8 P&L not assigned to stratigraphic units

PHASE 1 - PROSPECTIVE AND CONTINGENT RESOURCES

PHASE 1 - CONTINGENT AND PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES

• ~1 billion boe of which ca. 85% requires

a new solution/way of working

• ~1 billion boe risked

• Average COS = 20%

• Structural traps dominate

• Largest volumes in stratigraphic traps

• Most stratigraphic traps found by drilling

smaller structural features that turn out to

be larger

Excludes Shale Oil & HPHT plays

Excludes Shale Oil & HPHT play

No Shale Oil play identified; does not exclude potential HPHT (~5%)

What the data was telling us:

• Basin already had delivered three

peaks.

• Published data said it had potential.

PHASE 1 - THE OUTER MORAY FIRTH PRIZE

• The SIG study

has quantified &

increased the

size of the prize.

Total 1,568 MMBOETotal 2,674 MMBOE

Not just

‘Small Pools’

5,856

mmboe

risked by

quoted Pg

122 prospects &

leads with PR of

3.95 bn boe,

risked at 1:10

OGA ‘Small Pools’

quotes 512 mmboe

for MF (excludes

large PUDs)

Includes Shale Oil play

Small Pools Sour Oil Heavy Oil

Exploitation

Cost Elements

(Investability)

Technology/

OGTC

Infrastructure

Criticality

Themes

En

ablin

g S

OW

s

● Further refinement of each theme's Prize

● Accelerate Opportunity Delivery if blockers removed

● Cost base

● Investment risk management

● Recovery Factor Improvement

● New production facilities

● Safe operations

● Importance of satellites to hosts

● Identification of "stranded" hotspots

PHASE II AREA PLAN: SCOPE OF WORK - THEME MATRIX

SOW or Theme document

No documentation

SOUR OIL – CONTINGENT AND PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES

PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES

CONTINGENT RESOURCES

FOCUS ON KEY THEMES TO DELIVER CONTINGENT RESOURCE PRIZE

• HEAVY

• SOUR

• SMALL

WORK TO BE UNDERTAKEN UNDER JIP AGREEMENT

DELIVERY OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES WILL RESULT IN PULL

THROUGH OF PROSPECTIVE RESOURCE PRIZE

• E.G. MAKING SMALL POOLS WORK WILL ENCOURAGE COMPANIES TO DRILL

SMALL PROSPECTS

PHASE 2

• OMF HAS A SIGNIFICANT PRIZE OF CA. 2 BILLION BOE – SUFFICIENT FOR A FOURTH OIL PRODUCTION PEAK

• ACCESSING THE CONTINGENT RESOURCE (1.0 BILLION BOE) IS KEY TO DELIVERING THIS PRIZE. MOST OF VOLUME IS IN:

• SOUR – NEEDS NEW INFRASTRUCTURE

• HEAVY – NEEDS NEW INFRASTRUCTURE

• SMALL – NEEDS NEW COMMERCIAL MODEL

• PROSPECTIVE RESOURCE (1.0 BILLION BOE) DOMINATED BY SMALL FEATURES

• SMALL PROSPECTS WILL ONLY GET DRILLED IF WE CAN MAKE SMALL POOLS ECONOMIC.

• UPSIDE IS MAINLY IN STRATIGRAPHIC TRAPS – TYPICALLY FOUND BY DRILLING SMALLER LOWER RISK PROSPECTS THAT TURN OUT TO BE LARGER.

• SOUR OR HEAVY OIL PROSPECTS WILL ONLY GET DRILLED ONCE CLEAR ROUTE TO MONETIZATION EXISTS FOR EXISTING DISCOVERIES

• COLLECTIVE VIEW REQUIRED TO DELIVER THIS PRIZE = NEW COMMERCIAL MODELS FOCUSED ON THE OUTCOME (VALUE) RATHER THAN AN INPUT (COST).

• KEY TO OMF AND NORTH SEA FUTURE IS BECOMING A SMALL/COLLECTIVE PROJECT BASIN

CONCLUSIONS