Future Flow Derek Woodgate

PREPARED FOR

MARCH, 2012

The Age of Upheaval

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From pious certainty to absolute uncertainty

-

"The future is not fixed… We

can’t predict with certainty what

the future will bring, but we can be

certain about the issues that will

define our times.”

- Barack Hussein Obama II, President of the United States of America - 2008

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Fear of the future

!! Two-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren (CMI,

2007)

!! 68% believe the

worst is yet to come

when asked about the economy (Marist

Poll, June 2011)

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Facing your fears

-

“The greatest obstacle we encounter with stress and anxiety is the fear of the future…

It is important to decide what you are going to do with your fear and self-doubt around issues of your future.

Will it be the foundation of your future?

Or will you transform its energy into new power to augment a future that can resolve your negativity and fulfil your dreams and desires?”

- Michael Patrick Bovenes

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What a difference a decade makes!!!!

“Now is the time to choose – The present trends in the United States show that the pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us unless we soon shift our educational priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic scenario is completely realizable if such changes are made now. The window of opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s. If we do not choose, our children may not be able to have such choice.”

From Gordon L. Anderson’s chapter The United States in 2044 (page 251), The World of 2044 – Technological Development and the Future of Society, edited by Charles

Sheffield, Marcelo Alonso, Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994).

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Fear of the future – hardly surprising…

!! 911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, ethics, Iraq & Afghanistan wars, climate stability, An inconvenient Truth, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights,, food supply, natural disasters, Tsunami,, migration, education….

!! Economic meltdown, Banking bailouts, national debt, illegal immigration, cloning, resource scarcity, Iran, globalization, Rise of the Taliban, BP oil spill,, school massacres, oil prices, nuclear power disaster, demise of major corporations, the new economy, China, education, Europe, civil war…

2010

2006

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The Now

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Will the real America stand up please!

!! Poverty levels, inequality between rich and poor

!! Shrinking and possibly disappearing “middle class”

!! Earnings of the top 1% and executives

!! Home and car repossessions

!! The bailouts

!! The national debt

!! Failing education

!! Class warfare

!! Reality of The American Dream

… even a major transformation of Capitalism

The American Myth lies broken - a rude, but timely awakening

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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened?

!! “Dr. Doom” - Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital in 2006:

- “too much consumption and borrowing and not enough production

and savings…an economy based on over 70 percent consumption, you can’t address those imbalances without a

recession.”

- from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008, Americans lost $6.9 trillion in wealth in the stock markets. Gravest economic crisis since the Great Depression.

!! Greed at the centre of the storm. Greed, supported by slack regulation that had its origin in excesses in the U.S. housing and mortgage markets

- toxic loans and foreclosures.

- collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market

- 9% unemployment (projected 8% in 2014)

- $13 trillion debt (Public debt to GDP debt ratio)

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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened? (2)

!! Using a 20th C system in a 21st C world

!! Government failed to provide leadership

!! Consumer spending 72% of GDP

!! With no middle class wage growth – Boomers borrowed

!! “Too big to fail banks” – too powerful (hence bailouts)

!! Too many loopholes – need to clarify legislation – no-one knows the rules

!! Lack of investment in education, skill training…two different concepts – restriction on global market talents

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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened?

“It is totally unacceptable that the profits of financial institutions continue to grow at a disproportionately higher rate than the total profits of a country’s economy. That is complete wrong. The financial institutions did not invent the wheel, or Microsoft or biotechnology. They are there simply as a support mechanism.”

- President of Henry Kaufman & Co., a firm specializing in economic

and financial consulting. Author “Road to Economic Transformation”.

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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened? (3)

!! Dynamism and upward mobility have been in decline for a decade - we just did not notice (due to housing bubble)

!! Quarterly results focus vs. long-term value creation

!! Financial system averse to funding business innovation – lack of active capital - Edmund Phelps and Leo Tilman (Harvard Business Review)

Top 1% of Americans saw their real income rise 700% between 1980 and 2007 while the real income of the median family increased only 22%.

Top executives received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980.

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The meldown became and remained global

!! The US problems had a major global effect.

!! First quarter of 2009, the annualized rate of decline in GDP was 14.4% in Germany, 15.2% in Japan, 7.4% in the UK, 18% in Latvia, 9.8% in the Euro area and 21.5% for Mexico.” "

!! By March 2009, the Arab world had lost $3 trillion due to the crisis. In April 2009, unemployment in the Arab world was said to be a 'time bomb.

!! By 2011 the US economy, unemployment (except for one year in the 1980s) and poverty were at their worst since the Great Depression?

!! In 2011 - the Arab Spring, Greece and the Euro fallout, the US Debt crisis and Occupy Wall street, along with the continuing rise of the Tea Party and the cry for a return to ultra conservatism.

!! Even China’s economic growth stalled a little. Germany blip, but getting back on course. Brazil and metropolises in India on course.

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Capitalism on trial

-! The problem is not capitalism, but neo-liberalism - the US push towards hyper capitalism – free markets, materialism and consumption at all costs, fueling greed and excess

-! The growing ideological gap with other western economies – particularly the individual over community

-! Trickle down economics have failed, because the neo-liberalists created a ruling who use bail-outs, protectionism and subsidies when it suits them.

"! Hyper capitalism (USA)

"! Social capitalism (Europe)

"! State capitalism (China)

Capitalism has not solved the issues of: 1) ! Boom & Bust 2) Economic disparity

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Income inequality

The US now ranks 93rd in the world in "income equality." China's ahead of us. So is India. So is Iran.

Higher pay for higher skills – contributing factor

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The American dream get a wake-up call

!! The myth of the US classless society

!! The American dream is broken at its core. US upward mobility is one of the lowest amongst the developed countries, ranking well below Denmark, Australia, Norway, Finland, Canada, Sweden, Germany and Spain in terms of how freely citizens move up or down the social ladder.

!! America's middle class has been eroding for 30 years

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Underperforming education system

!! According to the OECD report, the main cause of social immobility is educational opportunity. It turns out that America's public school system, rather than lifting children up, is instead holding them down.

!! Investment in education and training for future professions is critical.

!! Only 27% of Americans graduate a Bachelor’s degree or higher, despite the high intake rate.

!! In critical subjects for the future, i.e. maths and science, the US is 24th and 17th respectively.

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America’s third world

!! The number of Americans who see themselves among the "have-nots" of society has doubled over the past two decades, from 17% in 1988 to 34% today.

One in six (46 Million) Americans live below poverty. - US Census Bureau

Sept. 2011

With 17.6%, US ranks 31st out of 34 developed countries. OECD 2011

The least fortunate U.S. citizens are an entire century behind their

most well off neighbors in terms of health, education and income.

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Where is the US doing well? – Entrepreneurship and innovation

!! The US still seems to lead the world in entrepreneurship. Its legislation and tax systems, venture capital industry, immigration, university-industry relationships and attitudes towards success and failure are geared to entrepreneurship.

!! Of the Forbes top 30 social entrepreneurs, 25 are American.

!! Entrepreneurship is a well established US core competency.

!! Between 1996 and 2010 the US created nearly 600,000 businesses every month.

!! The US ranks 2nd in the world innovation index, after Sweden.

Europe has started to change, not least because America’s venture capitalists have recently started to export their model.

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Where is the US doing well? GDP

!! The United States remains the world's largest national economy, at over $14 trillion per year, with a very high per capita income: $41,000. Right next to the US is the European Union. The combined economy of their 27 member countries is actually $16 trillion per year.

!! Population plays in big part in the US success. Since 1980, the U.S. population has grown about 36 percent, adding more than 80 million people through immigration and a relatively high birthrate. Four times as fast as the E.U. and Japanese rates over that time; the U.S. growth rate has been 50 percent faster than China's over the past decade.

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GDP (cont.)

!! China's extraordinary transformation, with its advanced infrastructure and rising living standards, is well known. But since 1980, emerging democracies such as Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey have made their own great leaps forward. China's average income per capita - at just over $6,000 - is still only about half that of Mexico and Turkey and one-seventh that of the United States.

!! In the past decade India, too, has made dramatic reforms and is quickly making up ground.

!! Meanwhile, non-democracies with heavily constrained market economies, such as Egypt, continue to falter with low economic output, high inflation and high population growth.

The United States remains the world's leading nation - economically, politically and militarily, but others may catch up over the coming decade

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Global economic competitiveness

!! Measures productivity of countries- sustainable

level of prosperity for citizens:

-! Governance and institutions

-! Macro –economic stability

-! Infrastructure

-! Health, education

-! Functioning of market

-! Innovation & sophistication of business sector

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The value set of society!!!!

-

“There is increasing consensus, on the left and right, that the US as a country needs a more comprehensive measure than GDP for fact-based policy debates about progress in the U.S.

While GDP asks how the economy is doing, the American Human Development Index asks how people are doing.”

- Kristen Lewis, co-director of AHDP.

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Human Development

!! The 2011 Human Development Report argues that the urgent global challenges of sustainability and equity must be addressed together.

!! Past Reports have shown that living standards in most countries have been rising - and converging - for several decades now. Yet the 2011 Report projects a disturbing reversal of those trends if environmental deterioration and social inequalities continue to intensify.

The HDI is a comparative measure of life expectancy, literacy, education, standards of living. Together they represent “well-being”.

US is 4th in HDI, but 28th if sustainability is added to the mix

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The Future

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STEEP: Economic Trends

!! Economic trends do not live in isolation

!! The concept of economics has been significantly expanded – called “economic imperialism” – expanding into non-economics fields

!! Postulates maximizing behavior, market equilibrium and stable preferences

!! They are a part of the influences on future economic development

!! They have local and global impact

!! The emerging influences are more important than the trends

!! Ultimately influences are cross-mapped and new triggers and platforms ensue.

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The future USA Economy: A wide-angled lens perspective

Global vs. local

No Maximum

wage

Social competitiveness

Greed

Risk

Financial services

industry

The US Empire

Macro vs. micro

economic projections

Stereotyping

Trickle down economics

Women’s inequality

Workers’ rights

Myth about America’s

greatness

Upward mobility

Socialism

Ideologies

Culture of materialism

Poverty

Comparative economics

Capitalism

Global competitiveness

Alienation

White dominance

Ethics and transparency

Community

Freedom

Individualism

Sustainability – Green

economics

Europe

Politics

Societal liberalization

Economic structure

Workforce / industrial

structure

The Workplace

Shareholders vs.

Stakeholders

Outsourcing Debt ratio

Technological advancements

Legislation

Government intervention

Subsidies

Innovation

Entrepreneurship Taxation

Aid & welfare

GDP

Education

Rewards

Bartering

Infrastructure

Demographic shifts

Diversity

Government / policy

intervention

Have vs. have nots

The American

Dream

Civil unrest

New habitats

Alternative /Nomadic

lifestyles

Post-structuralism

Urban development

Communications

Energy policy

Natural resources

Wars & military

Cycles & spirals

Power of invention

Free market

Capital

Investment stimulation

End of the

American Age

Power of IBRIC

Wall Street

Stock market

Brokers

Religion

Lobbyists

Corruption

Corporations

Unions

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Mapping the future potential influences

/ AI!

In-car heath network//Navigation!

OLEDs!

Interactive outdoor spaces!

Semi-autonomous

agents / avatars!

Peer-to-peer lending!

Fused Sensors systems !

Simplicity!

Real doll!

Interchangeable modules!

Cultural integration!

Convergent media response systems!

Virtual worlds!Convergent media / data systems!

Standards / legislation!

Consumer protection laws!

Life extension!Creativity time!

Energy foods!

Baking is something you do ,

not somewhere to go!!

New breed of workers!

Age defiance! Cloud computing!

Change in

workforce

structure!

Hopping robots!

Mimicry!

Info warfare!

Technologically enhanced employyees / soldiers!

Subconscious media!

Positivism!

Sleep prevention systems!

Dream ambient!

networks!

Life extension!

Self-service!

Mobile transactions!

Video conferencing at ATMs !

Bio-monitoring!

Annotated environments !

Multi-screen access providers!

Seamless, ubiquitous !

computing!

Entertainment systems!

Changing

ideologies!

Anytime, anywhere access !

Telepresence!

Biofeedback

Precision!

health monitoring!

Intra institutional transactions

Retirement!

Redefinition of Family and friends

Climate models!

Eradicating the class

gap / education

Environmental concerns

Telemetrics

Digital tracking

Micro-targeted &

customized

advertising

Sensors / biometrics!

Well-being and social aspects

Intelligent displays

Self-navigation

Brain Fitness

Renewable Energy

Machine to machine

Gaming

Wearable sensors

Stress & !

fatigue relief

Future middleware

Exercise and Fitness!

Unified

platforms

Infrastructure, energy and

urban development

Mobility &

Apps

Diagnostics

interface tech!

Light therapy!

3D internet!

Advanced touch screens!

In-sight provision !

Data visualization!

Larger display

screens!

Cognitive

feedback!

Interactive training! Terrorsim!

Less deadly wars!

Biogenetics!

Recharging

batteries!

Voice

activation!

Tablets!

Remote diagnostics!

Integrated data collection!

Smart/resistant

materials!

Virtual terminals! Personal care!

Sustainability!

Ambience modulation!

Advice, new retail environments!

Social networks!

Fitness programs!

Branch transformation strategies!

Performance

analysis!

Embedded tech!

Corporate services!

Integrated diagnostics!

Telematics!

Sustainable cities!

Work hours!

Slowtime!

Smart phones!Antioxidants!

Spare time!

Hyper Urbanization!

Plug & play!

Reconfigurable spaces!

Service!

Non-traditional entrants!

Data visualization!

More options!

Collateral management !

Savvy/ peer

referrals!

Emerging technologies / The

power of invention,

Collaboirative environments

Future demographics –

The New American

Global vs. local, New Global players –

IBRIC / Expanded West

l

Emotional wellness!

Standard of living!

Stability!

Social entrepreneurship!

Healthy eating!

Community & for the good

of the people

Green economics

Home security growth!

Fire zones!

Personal coach!

Personal QR codes!

In-body

sensing!

Prevention!

New financial models / market

dynamics, regulation

Wars, protest and the state

apparatus

Active workplaces / New professions entrepreneurship

Merger of real-world & digital experience!

Multiple inputs, aggregated outputs!

A new American Dream

Strategic partnerships!

Risk shift!

Product bundling!

Microfinance & Micro insurance !

Small scale entrepreneurs!

Micro-personalized financial services!

Variable-cost business models!

New fee-based products!

Multi-channel experiences!

FSOC!

Early warning systems!

CCPs!

FCMs!

Real-time dashboards!

Integrated client-facing technology platforms!

Cross asset reporting!

Payments on the go!

NFC-based contactless payment !

Google!

Transparency!

"Serve#!

Trust &

Privacy!

Security & efficiency!

Mobile wallets!

The new American!

Increased life expectancy!

Median income stable! Reduced accident risk!

Solar roofs!

Accident-proof cars !

Monitoring devices!

Medical tourism!

Digital fund monitoring!

Multi-centric threats!

Reduced military!Nuclear proliferation!

Super-unemployment!

Home automation!

Embedded computing!

Non-human entities!

Cluster AI!

Driverless!

Autonomous vehicles!

50% babyboomers on Medicare!

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STAGE ONE: FUTUREFRAMING The future of the US Economy – Potential leverage points

Wars, protest and the state apparatus

Future demographics - The

New American

Infrastructure, energy and urban

development

Reducing class gap

- Eradicating America’s 3rd

World

Green economics

New financial models / market dynamics, regulation

Changing ideologies

Community & for the good of the people

Active workplaces / new professions, entrepreneurship

The New American Dream – The Remix

Lifestyle

New Global players – IBRIC / Expanded West

Emerging technologies / The power of invention,

collaborative environments

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The changing face of capitalism – stretching the concept?

!! “Nothing will ever be the same again. Another ideological god has failed,” - Dean of financial commentators, Martin Wolf, Financial Times.

!! Companies will "fundamentally reset" the way they work, -CEO of General Electric, Jeffrey Immelt.

!! "Capitalism will be different," - Treasury Secretary

Timothy Geithner.

“Whatever ideology defines the future of the global economy, it won't be American-style neo-liberalism” - Pankaj Mishra quoting Brazil's

ex-president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

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Capitalism will survive – but transformed

-! Global operative integration of capitalist systems

-! Balance the East, reduce the ideological gap between the US and the West and expand cooperation. Brazil, China, India, Russia will all have more state involvement

-! Reversing growth in the informal and shadow economies (30% - 90% depending on country) formal economy

-! Revitalize traditional industries to meet growing demands, i.e. food, construction materials,

!! Improve the trade-off between inexpensive goods and diminished

domestic job opportunities, in favor of better paid, flexible and distributed domestic employment opportunities

"! Hyper capitalism (USA)

"! Social capitalism (Europe)

"! State capitalism (China)

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The New American Dream –

Fairness, sustainable living and the pursuit of happiness

"! Reduce the power of corporations, banks by making them “failable”. Break their “Too Big to Fail” power to combat excess.

"! Develop an education system for the next 30 years

"! Redefine, promote and drive US core competencies

"! Invest in unique, disruptive innovation

"! Large reduction in defense costs

"! Reduce the dependence on consumerism – around 60%

"! Develop platforms for young entrepreneurs

Kick start the middle class & upward mobility

"!Drive towards social-capitalism – end Neo-liberalism

"! Reduce inequality and balance economic distribution via increased taxes for the wealthiest 5% and a maximum wage

"! Create an economic system for the 21st C – of local and global relevance: global communications, 24/7, collaborative environments

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!! The U.S. is getting bigger, older, and more diverse. The demographic shift has been described as a "demographic singularity”

!! By 2015 minorities will make up 40% of the U.S. population

!! Size of echo boomer group

!! Constant migration of all demographics - rapid growth of tech-cities

!! Creative class jobs will make up roughly half of all projected U.S. employment growth - adding 6.8 million new jobs by 2018.

!! Flexible lifestyles due to economic instability and work structure shifts

!! The 70 year old worker

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Differing dreams – The Boomers

!! The US Baby Boom generation has suffered a disproportionate share of the $11 trillion in lost market equity and $3 trillion in lost real estate value

!! Boomers will want to keep healthy, continue working beyond retirement age and live the life they have up until now, whilst sustaining their current standard of living.

!! Near impossible to retire, particularly the 38% who will be eligible to retire in the next ten years.

!! There are 70 million plus boomers. Retirement would lower the size of the labor force - lowering overall economic productivity.

!! Starting in the next two years until 2030, the number of persons who reach the retirement age of 66 will increase by over 100,000 each year throughout the Baby Boom retirement years.

Boomers will be dependent upon a strong economy and a redistribution of wealth / Medicare/Medicaid to survive

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The Millennials will reject traditional American values

Millennials (Gen Y / Echo-boomers) Born between 1982 and 2001

"! Majority will enter the workforce over the next decade. Not a unified cohort – Early and later Millennials.

- Will tend to reject traditional American values

- Post-structuralist thinkers (gaming, etc.), remix lifestyle – skills

revolutions

- Micro-entrepreneurship, extended studying, new workforce structures, alternative living spaces, nomadic lifestyles, life swapping, life-style reshuffling, create companies with friends, new family structures,, eco-warriors, eco-crafters, cool hunters, etc…

- Less materialistic. Will live on a lot less, Looking for a new quality of life, new values. Social and work integrated

- Will continue to feel globally connected – peer trust, bond in groups,

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How will this impact the US economy?

!! Real GDP is expected to grow 3.0 percent annually over the next decade, faster than the 1.6-percent-per-year growth experienced over the 2000-2010 period. It should reach $17.5 trillion by 2020.

!! Unemployment is expected to remain around 8% through 2015, then drop down to around 6% by 2020. It will make up the 2% workforce loss but will have a low overall increase than in previous decades.

!! An improved housing market from 2014, increased consumer spending, with the easing of uncertainty are expected to contribute to a 5.7 percent annual growth between 2013 and 2020.

!! Government debt, spending cuts and fiscal policy are an ideological stumbling block. Bridging the class gap and reducing debt are critical.

!! However, these projections will only be met, if top earner tax rates are increased or value-added tax becomes the norm; minimum wage is increased by at least 15% above inflation, the business and personal credit strike is broken, the dollar remains around 1.3 to the Euro; the US becomes increasingly integrated into world trade, energy prices remain relatively stable.

!! http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2012/01/art2full.pdfe.

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The global economic environment 2020

!! By 2020 globalization is likely to take on much more of a non-Western face.

!! China, India and Brazil will be amongst the economic heavyweights. China will will overtake the US in aggregate economic size over the next decade, and Brazil will move up to 5th from 8th. China another 30 years for per capita incomes to reach current rates in developed economies.

!! Indonesia will be added to BRIC. It is the largest economy in SE Asia -growth projection of around 60% over the next five years. 3rd fastest growing economy.

!! Brazil is a pivotal state with a vibrant democracy, a diversified economy and an entrepreneurial population, a large national patrimony, and solid economic institutions. Brazil’s success in balancing pro-growth economic measures with an ambitious social agenda that reduces poverty and income inequality

!! Russia’s energy resources will give a boost to economic growth, but Russia faces a severe demographic challenge resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care, and a potentially explosive AIDS situation.

!! Europe’s future international role depends greatly on whether it undertakes major structural economic and social reforms to deal with its aging workforce problem.

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The global economic environment 2020

!! A recent global survey of central bank reserve managers found a near universal desire to diversify away from dollars and euros.

!! Secondary international currencies, i.e. Swiss franc

!! Gold holdings increased in Russia, South Korea, Brazil, etc.

!! China encouraging importers and exporters to price their goods in Yuan. Massive progress in just two years $220B).

!! Potential to replace dollar with SDRS (drawing rights) through IMF as the main reserve currency.

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The changing workforce and workplace

!! Three radical changes simultaneously:

1) Make up of the workforce itself by job category, over the past 20 years i.e. the dominance of the service class, the doubling of the creative class, the demise of manufacturing jobs and the virtual disappearance of agricultural jobs.

2) The deconstruction of the employee base, by 2015, it is projected that in larger corporations there will be only 30-40% full-time employees, working in collaboration with consultants, and networkers and supported by a large on-demand workers who can be drafted in according to requirements.

3) Type of work, the new professions, the new breed of worker and the vast amounts of emerging technology. Major growth in shared workplaces, bartering, collectives, affinity groups, etc.

About 35 million Americans, or a third of our workforce, are part of creative class.

There is a dramatic need for states to raise the educational level of all racial/ethnic groups. Major increases in investment in education is essential if

the US is maintain its innovation status and grow its creative class.

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Improving the position of America’s 3rd world

!! The Rural Studio - architecture studio run Auburn University, which provides for poor communities in rural west Alabama. They are available for $20,000.

!! Portland Alternative Dwellings - company dedicated to creating small, eco-friendly dwellings on wheels that fit the needs of poor families.

!! Home-grown community programs that create collaborations between city government, grassroots groups, businesses, nonprofits, and schools to promote community development for the poor are popping up all over the country.

!! These are all aimed to enable affordable, subsidized credits, zero cost utilities, flexible for work.

!! Growing trend for reusing materials and reclaimed and salvaged materials

!! Reuse centres such as the East Bay Depot for Creative Reuse, Austin’s Re-Store warehouse and the Refuge Sustainable Building

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Green economics

!! The UK will use the platform provided by the Rio+20 Earth Summit this June to urge businesses and governments to incorporate natural capital into their accounting practices and decision-making national level and corporations.

!! The US will need to introduce the concept green accounting to corporations by 2020. Carbon emissions control and recycling in China.

!! National accounts will based on "GDP-plus”, involves assessing the balance of their "natural capital", such as the ecosystems that provide everything from oxygen and water to flood defenses, seemingly for free.

!! Nanotech comes of age in Brazil, China, Russia and India

!! Photocatalystic coatings (based on nano TiO2 and/or Ag) for biocide effects, self cleaning surfaces, air and water filters, layer for photovoltaic solar cells, etc.

!! Intelligent homes with solar lighting and aesthetically pleasing LED projections will be the norm in higher end homes and buildings in Brazil within 7 years. Smart grids everywhere.

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Infrastructure, energy and urban development

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Community for the good of the people

!! GreenHomeNYC's first "New New York Block Party" showed residents not only how much is being done through green initiatives and businesses within their community, but what they can do as individuals to make a difference in their own homes and daily practices.

!! SwapYourShop is an online community for creative professionals connect to swap spaces — home and office — across the US or around the world.

!! The Solarize Portland project hopes to help Portland residents overcome the logistical hurdles of going solar powered at home.

!! Multiplex artist spaces where artists share studio space

and living space is created around specific needs and functions (e.g. relaxation room, creative room, sharing room etc…)

!! 798 art complex in Beijing

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New financial models / market dynamics, regulation

!! Regulatory pressures, increased competition and a more demanding consumer will create new banking and financial business models. This will bring new nontraditional players: some of the world’s largest retail and non-financial corporations and best-funded, venture backed startups.

!! Need to synchronize global financial legislation/systems

!! Increase the level of capital requirements that the large institutions have to put up and limit the size of the financial conglomerates

!! Continued growth in alternative models such as online financial networks and communities, peer-to-peer lending (or P2P Lending) and micro-finance lending.

!! Government will drive low-cost bank accounts and financial infrastructure.

!! Self Help Groups (SHG) through mobile, branchless banking and smart hubs.

Transform the larger financial institutions into utility like public companies

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A world of new experiences

46

The revolution won’t be televised

!! The possibility of civil war in the US is real, because of the growing and unacceptable financial disparity and power imbalance between the “ruling class” and the “people”.

!! Unarmed warfare between the two groups in the shape of cyber, cultural, economic, etc.

!! A rethinking of the role and relevance of money and financing. Even though it is a simple tool, it will lose its “value” as reward for work is no longer the yardstick

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“The Millennials will probably not fight in the traditional sense, but their whole way of thinking

drawn from gaming, collectivism, web connectivity and their fight may be quieter, but more potent as

they disrupt the system, simply by behaving outside of convention.”

- Judy O’Brien Chavis, Global Business Incubator, Dell Computors

“Someone is going to break the consensual illusion that money is the critical measure. If we stop

creating value for each other and stop being driven on an individual level, then both good and bad

things can result, but an economy primarily based upon consumer spending could be hit badly” . I

would not rule out a Katrina-scale conflict over the

next 8 yrs, e.g. a dirty bomb, chemical attack and civil strife.”

- Lloyd Walker Futurist

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Conclusion

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The Age of Upheaval – emerging disruptors

!! Resetting the American Dream

!! The New American - Gen Y, Hispanic…

!! Globalization: the death of “national” – local to regional and global – the growing power and role of IBRIC

!! New value set for society – not nostalgic

!! Re-establishing a moral compass for the financial sector

!! Innovative technologies driving new jobs, new work structures

!! Economic structuring – social capitalism

!! Collaboration between all parties – community driven

!! Regionalization – high-speed trains

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Conclusion

The US will reinvent itself Over the next

decade

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What are the trigger for the turnaround

!! Hyper - Capitalism has come up short – boom and bust serves only the few – trickle-down economics failed

!! US recognizing it is not infallible

!! The “people” will demand change – greater social-economic harmony

!! The economic plight of boomers and the attitudinal changes of Millennials

!! The growing power of IBRICs, especially China

!! The need to create an expanded West, which is only possible with shifts in US Ideology

!! Legislation and tighter regulations

!! The power of the New American

!! Focusing on US core competencies – technological and product innovation, creativity, entrepreneurship – investing in new skills

51

Create you own Plutopia

It’s not about

predicting the future,

but creating it.