UPDATE: Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric Observation Data · FPAW Fall 2018 ADO Update-2 MDM 18 October...

Michael McPartland

FPAW Fall Meeting

18 October 2018

UPDATE:Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric

Observation Data

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.

FPAW Fall 2018ADO Update- 2MDM 18 October 2018

This material is based upon work supported by the Federal AviationAdministration under Air Force Contract No. FA8702-15-D-0001. Anyopinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed inthis material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflectthe views of the Federal Aviation Administration.

© 2018 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Delivered to the U.S. Government with Unlimited Rights, as definedin DFARS Part 252.227-7013 or 7014 (Feb 2014). Notwithstanding anycopyright notice, U.S. Government rights in this work are defined byDFARS 252.227-7013 or DFARS 252.227-7014 as detailed above. Useof this work other than as specifically authorized by the U.S.Government may violate any copyrights that exist in this work.


Outline

• Review of Summer FPAW Presentation

• Initial Comparison of MDCRS and EHS ADO Wind Estimates

• FAA Radars and Candidate Site Modifications

• Summary


• Aircraft measurements can be used for atmospheric observations

• Meteorological Data Collection & Reporting System (MDCRS) is current airborne source

• Mode S Enhanced Surveillance (EHS)widely available now

Aircraft-Derived Observations

Air referencedvector

Wind vector

ADS-B = Automated Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast


Observation Source

HorizontalCoverage

Vertical Range

Update Period Latency Comment

ASOS 900 sites many at airports Surface only20 mins/

1 min 100 kft 12 hours < 2 hrsUsed primarily for forecast input data

MDCRSLimited fleet

coverage (~20%current US fleet)

Ground to typical cruise

altitudes

1 min ascent/ descent

7 mins cruise

17 minsAverage

Range(7 60+ mins)

Used primarily for forecast input data

Mode S EHSGrowing fleet

coverage (>50% current US fleet)


altitudes4.8-12 secs Seconds

Useful for forecast & real-time operations

ADS-B Wx Out(future)

None now, could be meaningful %

in future


altitudes~10 secs Seconds

Specifications not planned until at

least 2019

Observation System ComparisonsAv

aila

ble

Airc

raft-

Der

ived

O

bser

vatio

ns

ASOS = Airport Surface Observation SystemMDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection & Reporting System

Mode S EHS = Mode S Enhanced Surveillance

Aircraft-derived observations via Mode S EHS can be generated today without modifications to aircraft


Current System Characterization

• MDCRS: North American, 11 airlines reporting• E-AMDAR: Europe, 14 airlines reporting

Ground stations

Air data computer

Inertial reference

unit

GPS

Clock

ACARS Meteorological Community

Airlines

Typical Data• Winds• Temp

• RH%• EDR

E-AMDAR = European Aircraft Meteorological Data RelayACARS = Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System

RH = Relative Humidity EDR = Eddy Dissipation Rate

ARINC


Mode S EHS BasedObservation System

Aircraft collects data from its own sources:

GPS and on-board sensors

Mode S EHS enables interrogation of specific aircraft

registers to extract or derive aircraft winds and temperature

Air referencedvector

Wind vector

Register Content Comment

0x50• Ground speed• True air speed• Roll angle• Track angle

Used to estimate• Wind speed• Wind direction• Temperature

0x60• Mag heading• Mach• Altitude rate

0x44 • Wind speed/dir• TemperatureAbout 5% of EHS

A/C populate4.8 or 12 secs update rate


• FAA Mode S radars do not currently interrogate relevant registers*– Could do so with reasonable adaptations

• Lincoln MODSEF has been adapted to interrogate aircraft within range (60 nmi radius)

Lincoln Mode S EHSAircraft-Derived Observation Evaluation

MIT/LL Mode S Experimental Facility (MODSEF) 60 NM range

4.8s update rate

*FAA’s Fremont Valley BI6 radar at Edward’s AFB, whichfeeds High Desert TRACON (E10), conducts EHS interrogations


Comparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOS

Mode S EHS9809 observations

MDCRS120 observations

Nov 1, 20172-3:00 PM EST

-

-

-

-

-

-

0

Age at 3 PM EST(minutes)

>80x increase in atmospheric observations with Mode S EHS vs MDCRS in this case

43

42Latit

ude

(deg

rees

)

Longitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees)

Latit

ude

(deg

rees

)

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

43

42

-72 -71 -70 -72 -71 -70


Mode S EHS (n=200986)

MDCRS (n=6465)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Num

ber o

f Obs

erva

tions

Mode S EHS (n=200986)

MDCRS (n=6465)

Comparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOS

Nov 1, 2017Observations across 24 hours

Significantly increased time and altitude coverage with Mode S EHS

(x10

000)

Pres

sure

Alti

tude

(kft)

Number of Observations (✕10,000) Local Hour of Day0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 5 10 15 20

Mode S EHS (n=200986)MDCRS (n=6465)

Mode S EHS (n=200986)MDCRS (n=6465)

Num

ber o

f Obs

erva

tions

(✕10

,000

)0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


MDCRS & MODSEFObservations Around KBED/KBOS

Magenta points in figures are RAP model grid points initialized from observation data

Opportunity for forecast models to assimilate higher quantities of more recent data

Mode S EHSMDCRS 0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

RAP = Rapid Refresh forecast model

Age at 3 PM EST(minutes)


Observation From MODSEF &Tech Center Radars

Snapshot ~Noon EST18 June, 2018


GAMode S Only

16%

AirlineMode S Only

15%

GA EHS22%

Airline EHS32%

AirlineMDCRS + EHS

14%

Airline MDCRS Only1% All Observed Aircraft

Observed Mode S Equipage (UPDATED)

MDCRSToday

EHS ADOsToday EHS ADOs

Tomorrow?

• Elwood, NJ radar• 1 week sampling window• Sep 24-30, 2018• 10498 unique A/C observed*

* Observed aircraft with Mode A and Mode C transponders not included in count


Outline




• Summary


• Outstanding question from Summer FPAW Mtg:How do EHS ADO wind estimates compare to MDCRS’?

• Analyzed 8 days of data of MDCRS aircraft arriving at KPHL– US registered A/C contributing to MDCRS were compared

• Compared each MDCRS report to geographically closest EHS ADO– Compared valid reports only (specified by roll flags, etc.)– Comparisons performed if both source had estimated wind speed of

5 knots or greater– EHS ADO were unfiltered

• I.e., no smoothing

MDCRS vs ADOs from EHS Data


Visual ComparisonMDCRS & EHS ADO Winds

Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625 UTC

77° W 76

° W 75

° W 74

° W 73

° W

38° N

39° N

40° N

41° N

Max Wind Speed = 113.3 kts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

altit

ude

(100

0 ft)

MDCRS

EHS ADO



Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625 UTC

Max Wind Speed = 50 kts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

altit

ude

(100

0 ft)

MDCRS

EHS ADO

Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625 UTC



0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

EHS ADO

Wind Speed (kt)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

MD

CR

S

Win

d Sp

eed

(kt)

Speed: Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625

R-squared = 1.00

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

EHS ADOWind From Direction (deg)

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

MD

CR

SW

ind

From

Dire

ctio

n (d

eg)

From Direction: Nxxxxx 2018-01-17 0625

R-squared = 0.87

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

altit

ude

(100

0 ft)



Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0452 UTC

77° W 76

° W 75

° W 74

° W 73

° W

38° N

39° N

40° N

41° N

Max Wind Speed = 133.9 kts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

altit

ude

(100

0 ft)

MDCRS

EHS ADO



Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0452 UTC

Max Wind Speed = 75 kts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

altit

ude

(100

0 ft)

MDCRS

EHS ADO

Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0425 UTC



0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

EHS ADO

Wind Speed (kt)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

MD

CR

S

Win

d Sp

eed

(kt)

Speed: Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0452

R-squared = 1.00

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360


0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

MD

CR

SW

ind

From

Dire

ctio

n (d

eg)

From Direction: Nyyyyy 2018-01-17 0452

R-squared = 0.98

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

altit

ude

(100

0 ft)



0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

EHS ADO

Wind Speed (kt)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

MD

CR

S

Win

d Sp

eed

(kt)

Speed: all PHL 2018-01-17

R-squared = 1.00

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360


0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

MD

CR

SW

ind

From

Dire

ctio

n (d

eg)

Dir: all PHL 2018-01-17

R-squared = 0.97

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

altit

ude

(100

0 ft)

24 Hr Period, 24 Unique Aircraft, Num Samples = 761


• 170 Sorties• 8 full days; Jan (x3), July (x2), August (x3)• Num Samples = 5387

• For reference– ASOS Accuracy: +/- 2 kt, +/- 3 deg– TAMDAR Accuracy: +/- 4 to 6 kt Vector RMS

Table of Results

RMSDifference

2.8 (2.6) 2.0 (1.9) 5.6 (5.5)

MDCRS to EHS ADOsVector (kt) Speed (kt) Direction (deg)

Wind Estimate Comparisons

( ) = Standard Deviation

Sheet1

Local Hour24-Sep25-Sep26-Sep27-Sep28-Sep29-Sep30-Sep

00330143

11197970

2224636465734

3225663564857

40156223

52133323

64153444

760122214177

81111615151013

91011412121412

101021815151312

114214127128

121144431

1360461063

141922025343015

153304138292918

16162133346

177432332

180131531

191322120

200111314

21603332323531

22144643425338

23012326302121

Number of NOAA Reported MDCRS flights in/out of KMEM (local time)

24-Sep01220246111010416193316701061025-Sep31221110112210202413104126-Sep394656535121614181444204113332133462327-Sep07366363322151215124625383212132432628-Sep19465623414151215741034293351332423029-Sep47574822417101413123630294332135532130-Sep3034573347131212813151862104313821Local Hour01234567891011121314151617181920212223

Sheet2

Wind Estimate Comparisons

MDCRS to EHS ADOs

Vector (kt)Speed (kt)Direction (deg)

RMSDifference2.8(2.6)2.0(1.9)5.6(5.5)


Outline




• Summary


Existing Secondary Surveillance Radars

TypeMonted on

Primary RadarSecondary Radar Only

Simplest EHS Adaptation

MSSR 65 0 0 -BI-5 48 1 0 -

MODE S 133 4 1 Sidecar PCBI-6 101 32 1 Config file edit

CountsCan Interrogate

Mode S Registers

FAA Beacon Interrogators

Typically 60 nmirange ASR

Typically 240 nmi range ARSR

MIT/LLMODSEF

Tech Centerradar

Sheet1

FAA Beacon Interrogators

Counts

TypeMonted on Primary RadarSecondary Radar OnlyCan Interrogate Mode S RegistersSimplest EHS Adaptation

MSSR6500-

BI-54810-

MODE S13341Sidecar PC

BI-6101321Config file edit


Lower 48 & Caribbean BI-6 Radars

= 240 nmi radius, w/ primary = 60 nmi radius, SSR only = 240 nmi radius, SSR only

BI-6 Secondary Surveillance Radars (N = 122)

120 ° W 110 ° W

100° W 90

° W 80

° W 70

° W

60° W

20 ° N

30 ° N

40 ° N

50 ° N

BI-6 Secondary Surveillance Radars(N= 122)


Changes to BI-6 to Enable EHS

• From Tech Center BI-6 radar Config file– These lines were added:

• Outstanding question: Are there ready means to move interrogated data off-site?

; *** Enhanced Surveillance ***PS309OFF ; Disable Surv. Only Mode (i.e. Enhanced Surveillance Enabled)IAL 0 = G 40 3 4IAL 1 = G 50 1 5IAL 2 = G 60 1 5


• EHS ADO & MDCRS Wind Estimates are very similar

• Leveraging aircraft-derived operations holds significant promise for improving weather forecasting and real-time operations

• Mode S EHS is a currently-available technology enabling immediate access to aircraft-derived observations

Summary


Backup


Lower 48 Mode S Beacon Interrogators

= 240 nmi radius, w/ primary = 60 nmi radius, w/ primary = Unknown range, SSR only

120 ° W 110 ° W 100

° W 90

° W 80

° W 70

° W

20 ° N

30 ° N

40 ° N

50 ° N

Mode S Secondary Surveillance Radars(N= 138)


Fremont Valley, CA, Elwood, NJ, Lexington, MA Mode S EHS Radars

Snapshot 3PM EST18 June, 2018

UPDATE:�Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric �Observation DataSlide Number 2OutlineAircraft-Derived Observations Observation System ComparisonsCurrent System CharacterizationMode S EHS Based�Observation SystemLincoln Mode S EHS�Aircraft-Derived Observation EvaluationComparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOSComparison of MDCRS & Mode S EHS Observations Around KBED/KBOSMDCRS & MODSEF�Observations Around KBED/KBOSObservation From MODSEF &�Tech Center RadarsObserved Mode S Equipage (UPDATED)OutlineMDCRS vs ADOs from EHS DataVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsVisual Comparison�MDCRS & EHS ADO WindsTable of ResultsOutlineExisting Secondary Surveillance RadarsLower 48 & Caribbean BI-6 RadarsChanges to BI-6 to Enable EHSSummaryBackupLower 48 Mode S Beacon InterrogatorsFremont Valley, CA, Elwood, NJ, Lexington, MA Mode S EHS Radars

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UPDATE: Aircraft-Derived Atmospheric Observation Data · FPAW Fall 2018 ADO Update-2 MDM 18 October...

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