Update on Child Outcomes for Early Childhood Special Education Lynne Kahn ECO at UNC The Early...

Update on Child Outcomes for Early

Childhood Special Education

Lynne KahnECO at UNC

The Early Childhood Outcomes (ECO) CenterThe National Association of State Directors

of Special Education (NASDSE)June 2011

Kathy HebbelerECO at SRI International

What we will cover

• Quick review of the reporting requirement and state approaches

• Share the national data• Describe how the national data were

computed• Discuss the quality of the national data• Discuss the meaning of the numbers

2Early Childhood Outcomes Center


OSEP Reporting Requirements: Child Outcomes

• Positive social emotional skills (including positive social relationships)

• Acquisition and use of knowledge and skills (including early language/ communication and early literacy])

• Use of appropriate behaviors to meet their needs


OSEP Reporting Categories

Percentage of children who: a. Did not improve functioningb. Improved functioning, but not sufficient to move nearer

to functioning comparable to same-aged peers c. Improved functioning to a level nearer to same-aged

peers but did not reach itd. Improved functioning to reach a level comparable to

same-aged peerse. Maintained functioning at a level comparable to same-

aged peers

3 outcomes x 5 “measures” = 15 numbers

Illustration of 5 Possible Paths

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56

Age in Months

Sco

re

Maintained functioning comparable to age peers

Achieved functioning comparable to age peers

Moved nearer functioning comparable to age peers

Made progress; no change in trajectory

Did not make progress

The Summary Statements

1. Of those children who entered the program below

age expectations in each outcome, the percent who

substantially increased their rate of growth by the

time they turned 6 years of age or exited the

program.

2. The percent of children who were functioning within

age expectations in each outcome by the time they

turned 6 years of age or exited the program.


State Approaches to Outcomes Data

Approach Part C (56 states/jurisdictions)

Preschool(59 states/jurisdictions)

COS 7 pt. scale 41/56 (73%) 37/59 (63%)

One tool statewide 7/56 (13%) 9/59 (15%)

Publishers’ online analysis

3/56 (5%) 6/59 (10%)

Other 5/56 (9%) 7/59 (12%)

Early Childhood Outcomes Center 8

Social relationships Knowledge and skills Action to meet needs

a 0.0173423475321513 0.0182367034048671 0.0164717096861928

b 0.114520004403404 0.133727833654954 0.108153036923834

c 0.281561785450637 0.32470410889358 0.208844242808853

d 0.343437919521324 0.34397760817479 0.356458315050575

e 0.243152978902516 0.179335862613809 0.310081127789362

3%

8%

13%

18%

23%

28%

33%

38%

Estimated National Data for Early Childhood Special Education, 2009-2010

Note: Based on 33 States with highest quality data


Note: Based on 33 States with highest quality data

Social relationships Knowledge and skills Action to meet needs

SS1 0.825777563121165 0.814823334298577 0.819365394291995

SS2 0.586590898423841 0.523313470788598 0.666539442839937

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

Estimated National Summary Statements for Early Childhood Special Education, 2009-2010

Criteria for States with Quality Data

1. Low percentage of missing data

2. No odd patterns in “a” or “e” categories


Calculating Missing Data for 619

Proxy for missing data =

Number with data for B7/

Child count


• Do not expect this number to be 100%

• ..but we don’t expect it to be 10% either

Percent of Child Count included in Outcomes Data for ECSE

08-09<10= 11*

10- 20%= 15

20- 30%= 12

30- 40%= 12

40-50% =1

>50% = 2

09-10<10= 6*

10- 20%= 11

20- 30%= 12

30- 40%= 16

40-50% =4

>50%= 0

*4 States are sampling for 619

Problem with Missing Data

• We don’t know how well the data the state has represent the entire state.

• If the data are representative, the percentages for the a to e Progress Categories and the Summary Statements won’t change as data are added on more children.



1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Percent Reported in "a“ for Knowledge and Skills for ECSE by State

Criteria for States with Quality Data

1. State reported data for B7 on at least 12% of the state’s child count.– 10 states did not meet this criteria

2. No outcome reported as 10% or higher for “a” and no outcome reported as 65% or higher for “e.”– 6 states did not meet this criteria

3. Also, 4 states are sampling and 2 states did not report data


Can we trust these data?


Pattern checking for validity

• Checking across years– How do the 2009-10 compare to the data

for 2008-09?• Checking across methods

– How do the data for all states compare to states with highest quality data?


Part B Preschool: Social Relationships

All states 15 best All states 33 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

77.282.7

79.7 82.6

SS1: % who Increased Growth Rates


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

61.758.7

62.158.7

SS2: % who Exited at Age Expectations

Part B Preschool: Knowledge and Skills


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

76.282.7

78.381.5



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

55.851.2

55.552.3


Part B Preschool: Meets Needs


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

75.381.6

78.181.9



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

67.8 67.2 66.7 66.7


What to these data tell us?

• Nationally, a high proportion of children who receive early childhood special education services are showing greater than expected progress

• Nationally, many (over half) are exiting the program functioning like same age peers in at least one of the outcomes.


Should your state data look like the national data?

• Probably not• More important that each state continue to

focus on the quality of its own data– Getting outcomes data on all children who exit– Working with programs whose data look

unusual to address possible data quality issues


Additional information

For information on improving data quality and using data for program improvement

www.the-eco-center.org


Measuring and Improving Child and Family Outcomes Conference, September 18-21,

2011 in New Orleans, LA

http://www.the-eco-center.org/

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Update on Child Outcomes for Early Childhood Special Education Lynne Kahn ECO at UNC The Early...

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