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Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) UDIA URBAN IQ June 2017 Quarterly Report Information provided by UDIA’s Partner, RPM Real Estate Group PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE
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Page 1: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division)

UDIA URBAN IQJune 2017 Quarterly Report

Information provided by UDIA’s Partner,RPM Real Estate Group

PROPERTY MARKETUPDATE

Page 2: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

URBAN IQ is an online portal of research, news,

analysis and market intelligence for the Victorian urban

development industry.

www.udiavic.com.au

THANK YOU TO UDIA PARTNER RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP FORPROVIDING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED WITHIN THIS REPORT.

DISCLAIMER: ALTHOUGH ALL REASONABLE CARE HAS BEEN TAKEN IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS REPORT, THE RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP PTY LTD TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT ALL THE INFORMATION BE VERIFIED IF IT IS TO BE USED FOR COMMERCIAL PURPOSES.

URBAN IQ

UDIA KNOWLEDGE PORTAL

Page 3: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

PROPERTY MARKET UPDATEJUNE QUARTER 2017

UDIA URBAN IQ

ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE 04

RESIDENTIAL MELBOURNE MARKET PRICES 07

FINANCE ACTIVITY 08

BUILDING ACTIVITY 10

AFFORDABILITY CONSTRAINTS 11

BUYER INSIGHT 13

PROPERTY MARKET NEWS 14

ABOUT RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP 15

UDIA PRINCIPLES FOR THE WAY AHEAD 17

UDIA PARTNERS

National Land Survey Program

Page 4: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 4 /

• Economic activity stabilised in March quarter 2017, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increasing by 0.26% from the previous quarter. This was attributed to many sectors of the economy that performed strongly in 2016, experiencing weaker growth in March quarter 2017.

• Annual GDP at March 2017 increased by 2.25%from the corresponding fi gure at March 2016, which is below the long term trend of around 3.50%, and continued the trend of weaker annual GDP growth from the previous two quarters. Over the year to March 2017, private consumption expenditure, private dwelling investment, public investment spending, and exports were all key drivers of economic growth.

• Growth in the Victorian economy hasoutperformed the national average, with annualState Final Demand (SFD) at March 2017 being3.46% higher than the same fi gure at March 2016.This places Victoria third, behind Australian CapitalTerritory (6.48%) and New South Wales (3.75%).

URBAN IQECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE

ECONOMIC MARKET UPDATE

INTEREST RATE

• After reducing the cash rate by 25 basis points in both May and August of 2016, the RBA has made no further changes in following monthly meetings, leaving the cash rate at a historical low of 1.50%.

• Below trend economic growth and low wage growth have both resulted in weak infl ationary pressures, which has led to the current low interest rate environment.

• Infl ation fell back below the RBA target band of 2%to 3% in June quarter 2017. However, additional cuts to the cash rate are unlikely, with the RBA seeking to avoid encouraging further strong dwelling price growth in Sydney and Melbourne and residential investment demand.

• APRA’s directive for banks to limit the fl ow of new 'interest only' lending to 30% of new residential mortgage lending and subsequent strict criteria for allowing interest only loans to have a LVR of above 80%, resulted in higher borrowing rates for interest only loans for both owner occupiers and investors to entice borrowers to move to principal and interest loans.

• The official standard variable interest rate for owner occupiers sits at 5.25% (while investor loans sits at 5.80%). However, with some bargaining owner occupiers can obtain a discounted interest rate of 4.50% (investors can obtain 5.05%) from the major lenders.

EmploymentVictorian StateEconomy

DwellingInvestment

$

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

1.50%

Cash Rate(Jun-17)

4.50%5.25% 4.15%

Standard Variable Rate (Owner Occupiers - Jun-17)

3 Year Fixed Rate(Jun-17)

Discounted Variable Rate(Jun-17)

%-

3yr

Source: Reserve Bank Australia

Page 5: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 5 /

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) escalated by1.9% across Australia and 2.2% in Melbourne inJune quarter 2017, compared to the same quarterin 2016. Notably, corresponding CPI growth ratesfor both Australia and Melbourne in March quarter2017 were higher, quickly halting the upward trend inCPI growth that only emerged during the fi rst threemonths of 2017.

• In Melbourne, the CPI housing index (+3.7%) roseat a faster pace than overall CPI in the June quarter2017, highlighting the strength of the housingmarket.

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES

• Victoria experienced annual growth of 3.21% inthe number of employed persons at June 2017.However, the unemployment rate at June 2017 of5.9% was slightly above the national rate (5.6%).

• Average weekly earnings for full time adults inVictoria of $1,551 at November 2016, representedannual growth of 5.27%.

$CONSUMER SENTIMENT

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely quoted barometer of consumer sentiment in Australia. A score of greater than 100 means that optimists outnumber pessimists, with readings of below 100 indicating that pessimistic consumers are in the majority.

Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index

• The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has contracted through June quarter 2017, lowering to 96.2 in the fi nal month of the period. This is also the seventh consecutive month that pessimists outnumber optimists.

• Weaker economic growth in March quarter 2017, combined with increased pressure on family fi nances in response to limited growth in household incomes, banks increasing mortgages rates in June, and rising electricity costs, have all augmented consumer sentiment.

96.2

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

Sep-

2013

Dec-

2013

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep-

2014

Dec-

2014

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep-

2015

Dec-

2015

Mar

-201

6

Jun-

2016

Sep-

2016

Dec-

2016

Mar

-201

7

Jun-

2017

Inde

x = 1

00

Consumer sentiment

Page 6: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 6 /

• Growth in business conditions has largelyremained solid from the middle of 2015, with theJune 2017 result of a 13.8 percentage pointincrease being the highest since the start of2008.

• Business conditions are looking relatively solidacross most industries and states, suggestingthe recovery is becoming more entrenched.However, the authors of the index highlight theircautiousness given the apparent divergencebetween business conditions and householdsentiment.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

NAB’s Business Survey has been tracking Australian business confi dence levels for more than two decades. Businesses are approached quarterly, with two smaller monthly surveys conducted in the intervening months to capture changes on a more regular basis. The panel now exceeds 2,700 businesses.

Source: National Australia Bank Business Survey

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Sep-

2013

Dec-

2013

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep-

2014

Dec-

2014

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep-

2015

Dec-

2015

Mar

-201

6

Jun-

2016

Sep-

2016

Dec-

2016

Mar

-201

7

Jun-

2017

NAB

Inde

x

Business Conditions+13.8

Victoria gained 32,703 people during December quarter 2016 (latest available data), lifting its estimated resident population to 6,244,227 people. This equated to a population increase of 135,477 people or 2.40% growth in Victoria over the twelve months to December 2016, which were both the strongest in absolute terms and percentage terms amongst all states and territories.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

-5,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Dec-

2011

Mar

-201

2

Jun-

2012

Sep-

2012

Dec-

2012

Mar

-201

3

Jun-

2013

Sep-

2013

Dec-

2013

Mar

-201

4

Jun-

2014

Sep-

2014

Dec-

2014

Mar

-201

5

Jun-

2015

Sep-

2015

Dec-

2015

Mar

-201

6

Jun-

2016

Sep-

2016

Dec-

2016

Peop

le

Natural Increase Net overseas migration Net interstate migration

VICTORIAN POPULATION

POPULATION COMPONENTS

A breakdown of the three components of population growth shows that in December quarter 2016 Victoria recorded;

Natural Increase

Net

In

terstate Migration Net

O

verseas Migration++23.1%* +16.5%* +29.2%*

+43,439 persons over the 12months to December 2016 (+31.0%). Refl ects 28% of the national natural

increase

+17,987 persons over the 12months to December 2016

(+37.8%).

+74,051 persons over the 12months to December 2016

(+18.1%). Refl ects 35% of the national intake

+

• The lift in overall business conditions in June 2017 was attributed to stronger trading conditions and profi tability. Within industry sectors, those that experienced the largest increase in business conditions included wholesale, construction, and manufacturing.

* Increase on same quarter of the previous year

Page 7: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 7 /

MELBOURNE RESIDENTIAL MARKET PRICES

Property prices in Melbourne have trended upwards since the middle of 2013, with detached houses achieving stronger growth than units.

• The established housing market to date remainsrobust when compared to other states withapproximately 41,043 auctions held in Victoriaduring the twelve months to July 2017, with aclearance rate of 77.6% (REIV).

• Nevertheless, the number of auction sales duringthe twelve months to July 2017 is 4.4% lowerthan the corresponding period a year earlier,where the clearance rate was 71.3% (REIV).

At June quarter 2017 preliminary data recorded;

• House prices rose to a median of $822,000 (+2.9%from the previous quarter, and +14.6% from thecorresponding quarter a year earlier)

• Unit prices rose to a median of $606,500 (+4.3%from the previous quarter, +13.5% from thecorresponding quarter a year earlier)

• Land prices rose to a median of $271,000 (+8.2%from the previous quarter, +23.2% from thecorresponding quarter a year earlier)

$822,000

$606,500

$271,000

$175,000$185,000$195,000$205,000$215,000$225,000$235,000$245,000$255,000$265,000$275,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec-

10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec-

11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec-

13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Med

ian

land

pric

e

Med

ian

hous

e an

d ap

artm

ent p

rice

Melbourne Prices

Melb House Price (LHS) Melb Unit Price (LHS) Melb Land Price (RHS)

MELBOURNE PRICES

15% 18%

57%

105%

13% 17%

37%

76%

23%30% 29%

94%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

12 months 2 years 5 years 10 years

% ch

ange

Price Change

Melbourne House Price Melbourne Unit Price Melbourne Land Price

PRICE CHANGE PER PERIOD

Source: REIV, RPM Research Division

Source: REIV, RPM Research Division

URBAN IQRESIDENTIAL MELBOURNE MARKET PRICES

Page 8: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 8 /

VALUE OF LOANS BY DWELLING TYPE

• Victoria recorded a considerable 46,553 new loans for owner occupation during the three months to June 2017. Buoyant owner occupation demand has been underpinned by strong population growth and historical low borrowing costs. However, the number of new owner occupier loans still contracted by 4.0% from the same period in 2016, although it should be noted that the corresponding value in June quarter 2016 was a long term high.

• In the three months to June 2017, compared to the previous corresponding period, new owner occupation loans for newly constructed dwellings and recently constructed dwellings (but have not been lived in) increased by 2.4%, although declined by 5.3% for established dwellings. However, established dwellings still accounted for a relatively

VALUE OF LOANS BY PURCHASER TYPE

• The total value of new owner occupier loans in the three months to June 2017 escalated by a 5.0% compared to the previous corresponding period, which was supported by sizeable growth in established house prices. However, growth in the value of owner occupier is significantly below house price growth, suggesting that owner occupier demand is increasingly shifting to relatively more affordable outer metropolitan areas, and also to new housing in broadhectare subdivisions. This is highlighted by the number of loans for new dwellings increasing, compared to a contraction in established dwelling loans.

• The total value of loans to investors in May quarter 2017 increased by a sizeable 13.5% compared to May quarter 2016. This significant improvement can be aligned to investors being able to obtain finance through second tier banks, and also the major banks

URBAN IQFINANCE ACTIVITY : VICTORIA

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

high 83% of total new owner occupation loans in the three month period.

• Overall, the number of new owner occupation loans during the twelve months to June 2017 in Victoria totalled 180,209 loans, which was marginally below the number of similarly financed dwellings in the twelve months to June 2016.

- 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec-

13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

No. o

f dw

ellin

gs fi

nanc

ed

Construction of Dwellings Purchase of new dwellings purchase of established dwellings

feeling more comfortable to lend to investors whilst ensuring residential investor lending growth remains below the 10% cap set by the Australian Prudent Regulation Authority (APRA). However, investor lending is likely to be impacted on going forward by APRA’s directive to limit he flow of new interest only lending to 30% of new residential mortgage lending and subsequent strict criteria for allowing interest only loans to have a LVR of above 80%.

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17tota

l val

ue o

f loa

n by

type

($m

)

Owner Occupier Investor

Page 9: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 9 /

NUMBER OF LOANS TO FIRST HOME BUYERS AND NON-FIRST HOME BUYERS• The number of loans attributed to first home buyers reached 6,648 loans over June quarter 2017, which

was a significant 10.1% lower than first home buyer loans in June quarter 2016. However, this decline is mostly attributed to first home buyers delaying their purchase decision in response to the Victorian Government initiative of abolishing stamp duty from July 2017 when a first home buyer purchases a dwelling of up to $600,000 in value, and for owner occupation.

• Dwellings financed to non-first home buyers recorded 39,905 loans during June quarter 2016, reflecting a 2.9% decrease on the same quarter in the previous year.

• With first home buyer demand remaining stagnate, their overall share remains at a historical low (14% of total loans) which highlights the affordability constraints that is present.

AVERAGE LOAN SIZE – FIRST HOME BUYERS AND NON-FIRST HOME BUYERS• The average loan size to first home buyers in June quarter 2017 increased by 3.4% from the previous

corresponding quarter, while the average loans size to non-first home buyers escalated by a higher 6.6%.• After narrowing during the first half of calendar 2016, the divergence between the average loan amount to first

home buyers and non-first home buyers has widened again through financial year 2017, with this difference being relatively large.

• At June 2017, the average loan size attributed to a non-first home buyer was $64,133 above the average loan size to a first home buyer ($329,267).

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

13%

15%

18%

20%

23%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Jun-

11Se

p-11

Dec-

11M

ar-1

2Ju

n-12

Sep-

12De

c-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

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% sh

are

of FH

Bs

No. o

f loa

ns

First Home Buyers Non-First Home Buyers Share of FHBs

$250,000

$275,000

$300,000

$325,000

$350,000

$375,000

$400,000

Jun-

11Se

p-11

Dec-

11M

ar-1

2Ju

n-12

Sep-

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Mar

-13

Jun-

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Sep-

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Mar

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Jun-

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ar-1

6Ju

n-16

Sep-

16De

c-16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

Aver

age

loan

size

($)

FHBs - Average loan size Non-FHBs - Average loan size

Page 10: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 10 /

URBAN IQBUILDING ACTIVITY: VICTORIAAPPROVALS• Victoria recorded 9,143 new detached house building approvals in June quarter 2017, which equated to a

3.4% decline on new detached house approvals in the previous corresponding quarter. Nevertheless, this volume of approval activity remains relatively strong for the specified three month period.

• Total approvals in June quarter 2017 of 14,853 dwellings represented a contraction of 14.2% on total dwelling approvals during the same period in the previous year. This decrease was primarily attributed to the sizeable 50.4% reduction in approvals of flats/units/apartments in buildings of 4 storeys and higher.

• During the twelve months to June 2017, there were 35,854 new detached houses approved, marginally (-0.3%) below house approvals during the twelve months to June 2016. Over the same period, approvals of semi-detached/row/terrace houses and townhouses increased by a solid 8.6%, although flat/unit/apartment approvals declined by 13.6%.

• Overall, a total of 65,185 dwellings were approved in Victoria during the twelve months to June 2017,resulting in an annual decline of 3.0%.

COMMENCEMENTS• Over the 2016/17 financial year in Victoria, it is estimated detached house commencements declined by 1.8%

to 34,830 starts, while multi–unit dwelling commencements fell by 11.6% to 29,210 starts. As a result, totalcommencements were approximately 6.6% below the cyclical peak in 2015/16, decreasing to an estimated64,040 dwellings in 2016/17.

• Total dwelling starts in Victoria are expected to witness a more substantial contraction during the two years to2018/19, falling to a projected 46,610 commencements. This will be the lowest level of annual dwelling startssince 2008/09. Over this two year period, house commencements are forecast to decline by 17.0% to 28,900starts, with a more sizeable 39.4% reduction forecast for multi–unit starts to 17,710 commencements.

• In 2019/20, dwelling starts are forecast to stabilise, before beginning to rebound in 2020/21.• Nevertheless, average annual dwelling commencements in the four years to 2020/21 in Victoria will around

2011/12 to 2013/14 levels, which should still support solid residential construction activity.

- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000 11,000

Jun-

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Mar

-12

Jun-

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Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar

-13

Jun-

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Sep-

13

Dec-

13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep-

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Dec-

14

Mar

-15

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15

Mar

-16

Jun-

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Jun-

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No. o

f app

rova

ls

Approvals by dwelling type

Detached Houses Townhouses Apartments

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

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/07

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e

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/21

No. o

f dw

ellin

gs

Houses Multi-units Forecast

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Source: Housing Industry Association

Page 11: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 11 /

CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS

The chart depicts the median land price in the June quarter 2017 by suburb, along with a median anticipated construction cost and net income by corridor. The median construction costs and incomes are taken from RPM’s Internal Buyer Surveys. The construction cost ranges from $217,479 (Melton) to $225,305 (Casey) while income levels reflect net levels to provide a more accurate level of disposable income. In addition, the chart also assumes a 20% deposit has been paid and mortgage repayments are based on a 30 year loan at the discounted standard variable rate at June 2017 of 4.50%.

Over the past decade housing affordability has received an increasing share of media attention. Generally, first home buyers are noted as the age cohort that bears the brunt of consistently increasing house prices. However, in more recent times the dialogue has shifted to include all age cohorts who particularly have a desire to reside in the middle ring of Melbourne but find it increasing unaffordable to do so.

However, the silver lining for potential homebuyers is the vast range of new land estates available throughout the growth areas of Melbourne and Greater Geelong. This high level of supply (curtesy of an active planning department) has resulted in intense developer competition which has kept prices in check and allowed for not only first home buyers, but also other age cohorts the ability to select from a range of suburbs and lot sizes.

Along with developer competition, there is also a high level of competition amongst builders which has also allowed for potential savings for buyers. These positive variables, coupled with historical low interest rates has improved affordability levels.

URBAN IQAFFORDABILITY CONSTRAINTS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

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Prin

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Am

ount

Principal Amount (80% loan)

% share of income used for repayments

Historical 30% of income used to finance a mortgage

Source: RBA, ATO & RPM Research Division

Page 12: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 12 /

The common benchmark for identifying housing stress in Australia has historically been identified as those households that allocate at least 30% of disposable household income to finance their mortgage. This ratio has been in place for decades and in recent times there is a growing view that the ratio should be closer to 35% to reflect the market of today.

The chart on the previous page reflects 42 suburbs throughout the growth corridors of Melbourne and Greater Geelong. The proportion of income required to finance a mortgage was 40% and above in Williams Landing, Lyndhurst, Point Cook, Greenvale, Clyde North, and Craigieburn. The median land price in all six of these suburbs in the June quarter 2017 was above $300,000, which is also significantly more expensive than the corresponding value for the combined Melbourne growth corridors of $271,000.

The proportion of household income needed to service a mortgage was lowest, between 25% and 30%, in suburbs within the Geelong region due to high household incomes, and in suburbs around the Melton Township due to relatively less expensive land prices.

Another 19 suburbs covered recorded a ratio of between 35 and 40%, which indicates a level that is starting to press households. However, the ratio could be far worse if it wasn’t for the large level of land supply that has come on line in recent years. Nevertheless, if the roll out of PSPs slow, price pressures will result which will adversely affect affordability levels.

Page 13: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

/ Page 13 /

PURCHASER PROFILE

• Two countries accounted for a significant proportion of purchasers, with 21% born in India and 17% born in Australia. The next most common birthplace of purchasers was Sri Lanka, which accounted for 2% of buyers.

• People aged from 25 to 34 years old constituted 47% of all purchasers, with a further 38% of purchasers aged from 35 to 49 years old. This suggests a high incidence of young couples without children and couples with children households amongst purchasers.

• 59% of purchasers earned a household income of above $80,000, largely representing upgrader buyers. A further 37% of purchasers earned a household income of between $40,000 and $80,000, which likely reflects first home buyers.

• Two car households constituted 62% of purchasers, with 29% having one car. This was the dominate mode of transport to a person’s place of employment, with 86% of purchasers travelling by car to work.

• The Herald Sun was the most regular read newspaper among 46% of purchasers, with a further 17% of purchasers regularly reading The Age newspaper.

CONSUMER PREFERENCES

The proportion of purchasers who considered the factors below as being important to very important in their purchase decision was:

• 92% for price• 90% for parklands and open space• 90% for block size• 87% for estate amenity• 84% for fibre optic network• 83% for estate building design controls• 82% for reputation of developer• 76% for being familiar with the municipality/area• 66% for estate facilities• 65% for recycled water• 46% for heritage and history

PROXIMITY PREFERENCES

The proportion of purchasers who considered it important or very important to be in close proximity to:

• Major roads/freeways was 92%• Shops was 92%• Community and recreational facilities was 87%• Public transport was 85%• Education/child care was 78%• Friends and relatives was 71%• Workplace was 67%• Current residence was 47%

URBAN IQBUYER INSIGHTBASED ON RPM ESTATES IN THE MELBOURNE GROWTH CORRIDORS

Note: results are based on over 1,300 surveys recorded through the growth corridors of Melbourne and Geelong during June quarter 2017

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/ Page 14 /

VICTORIAN PLANNING AUTHORITY UPDATES

• Stuart Moseley was appointed to role as the VPA’s Chief Executive Officer in May.• In an effort to boost housing supply, the VPA has been set a target to complete 17 Precinct Structure Plans over

2017 and 2018, which will include the rezoning of more than 100,000 lots.

The table below outlines the number dwellings, people and jobs each of the 17 Precinct Structure Plans, to be completed during 2017 and 2018, are anticipated to support.

URBAN IQPROPERTY MARKET NEWS

Source: Victorian Planning Authority

Precinct Structure Plan LGA StatusEstimated Dwellings

Estimated Population

Estimated Jobs

Pakenham East Cardinia Council Led - - -McPherson Casey Review of Submissions 10,100 28,300 1,619Minta Farm Casey Council & State Agency Consultation 3,000 - 10,000

Lancefield Road Hume Review of Submissions 8,000 22,000 -Lindum Vale Hume Community Engagement & Exhibition 1,500 - -

Sunbury South Hume Review of Submissions 11,800 33,000 -Kororoit Melton Structure Plan Finalisation 9,200 25,875 2,100

Mt Atkinson & Tarneit Plains Melton Submitted for Approval 6,700 19,000 18,000Plumpton Melton Structure Plan Finalisation 10,680 29,900 12,000

Beveridge Central Mitchell Review of Submissions 3,640 10,193 -Beveridge North West Mitchell Council & State Agency Consultation 11,290 31,611 6,165

Donnybrook & Woodstock Whittlesea Submitted for Approval 16,400 46,000 3,316Shenstone Park Whittlesea Council Led - - -

Wollert Whittlesea Completed - February 2017 15,060 42,168 8,040Quandong Wyndham Council Led - - -

PRECINCT STRUCTURE PLAN LGA STATUS ESTIMATED JOBS

ESTIMATED DWELLINGS

ESTIMATED POPULATION

• Furthermore, background studies for the following Precinct Structure Plans have commenced during Junequarter 2017:

• Aviators Field (Point Cook South) and Werribee Junction in City of Wyndham;• Craigieburn West and Merrifield North in City of Hume;• Croskell (Casey Central) and Clyde South in City of Casey; and• Officer Employment in Cardinia Shire.

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RPM is a dynamic, results-driven residential sales agency with a strong commitment to creating research backed strategies that deliver higher revenues, faster sales rates and better returns for our clients.

Founded over two decades ago as a residential land sales specialist, today RPM Real Estate Group has grown to encompass over 100 employees across six specialist divisions. We manage a portfolio of 34 developments across Melbourne and Greater Geelong including land estates, apartments and townhouses.

At RPM, our difference lies not only in our experience and in-house capabilities, but our passion for the people within our business as well as our valued clients.

Through our dedication to creating a culture of enthusiastic and committed property experts, we are proud to have built a team with expertise spanning all facets of property sales, research and advisory services.

Our continued expansion and reinvestment into our research services mean we offer unsurpassed market intelligence and data-driven insights to our clients, to help drive the continued growth of their projects and asset portfolio.

A full-service agency, we pride ourselves on advising our clients through every step of the process; from the initial site diligence, acquisitions and master-planning, through to the launch and sales strategies and ongoing marketing.

ABOUT

RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP

Page 16: Urban Development Institute of Australia (Victorian Division) … · 2017-08-10 · CONSUMER SENTIMENT The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index is the most widely

• ONE OF VICTORIA’S LARGEST RESIDENTIAL SALES AGENCIES SELLING APPROXIMATELY 25% OF ALL RESIDENTIAL LOTS IN FINANCIAL YEAR 2016/17

• OVER 5,200 LOT SALES IN THE PAST FINANCIAL YEAR

• OVER $1.3 BILLION IN LAND SALES IN THE PAST YEAR

• 100 PLUS STRONG TEAM

• 34 ACTIVE PROJECTS

• OVER 42,000 TOTAL YIELD OF CURRENT PROJECTS

• FIVE UDIA AWARDS FOR EXCELLENCE

P +613 9862 9555

F +613 9862 9512

E [email protected]

W www.rpmrealestate.com.au

RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP

CONTACT RPM

THANK YOU TO UDIA PARTNER RPM REAL ESTATE GROUP FORPROVIDING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED WITHIN THIS REPORT.

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UDIA PRINCIPLES FOR THE

WAY AHEADTHESE PRINCIPLES WILL GUIDE UDIA AS WE EMBARK ON A JOURNEY OF GROWTH AND AS WE SOLIDIFY OUR LONG TERM, SUSTAINABLE POSITION AS THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY’S ASSOCIATION OF CHOICE.

LEADERSHIP

KNOWLEDGE

INFLUENCE

LOYALTY

EXPERTISE AND INNOVATION

DEEPLY CONNECTED

INDUSTRY SUCCESS

Drive the thought leadership agenda and exercise tangible infl uence with government and other stakeholders

Be the go-to organisation for industry knowledge and business building insights

Be known as the pre-eminent expert organisation on housing and urban development

Possess a deeply loyal membership base as a result of consistently providing solid member services

Off er innovative membership services that respond to the changing needs of our industry

Facilitate a fruitful business environment by connecting industry and government stakeholders

Advance and support the industry in the public arena and facilitate industry recognition and promotion

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URBAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA �VIC� udiavic.com.au +61 3 9832 9600 [email protected]


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