US Economic Briefing:Consumer Confidence
Yardeni Research, Inc.
June 29, 2018
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com
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Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1Consumer Optimism 2Consumer Confidence 3-6Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 7-8Consumer Confidence & Employment 9-11Consumer Sentiment 12Consumer Confidence By Region 13-15Consumer Optimism Index 16Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation 17Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 18-21
Figure 1.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
CONSUMER SURVEYS
Jun
JunConsumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jun
EXPECTATIONS
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Consumer Confidence & Sentiment
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Figure 2.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
Jun
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2140
60
80
100
120
140
160
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun
CURRENT CONDITIONS
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130
50
70
90
110
130
30
50
70
90
110
130
EXPECTATIONS
Jun
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Consumer Optimism
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
Total (126.4)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 3.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa)
Consumer Confidence Index (126.4)Current Conditions Component (161.1)Expectations Component (103.2)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 4.
Consumer Confidence
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
Current Conditions Component (161.1)Expectations Component (103.2)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 5.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa)
Consumer Confidence Index (126.4)Current Conditions Component (161.1)Expectations Component (103.2)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 6.
Consumer Confidence
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS(1985=100, sa)
Age GroupUnder 35 (118.5)35-54 (134.2)55+ (123.0)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 7.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
Jun
Total (112.3)Present (138.8)Expectations (94.8)
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 8.
Consumer Confidence
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY(percent saying so)
Jun
Jun
Jobs HardTo Get* (14.9)
Jobs Plentiful* (40.0)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 9.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY
Jobs Plentiful MinusJobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so) (25.1)
Current Conditions Index (161.1)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 10.
Consumer Confidence
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
15
30
45
60
75
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Unemployment Rate(percent)
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY
Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)
Jun
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.
Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 11.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 205
10
15
20
0
15
30
45
60
75
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CONFIDENCE(sa)
Jun
Jobs Hard To Get(percent saying so)
U-6UnemploymentRate*(percent)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.* Total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus
all attached workers.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 12.
Consumer Confidence & Unemployment
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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
200
400
600
800
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, 4-week ma)
6/23
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(sa)
Jobs Hard To Get(percent saying so)
Jun
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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i.com
Figure 13.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
15
30
45
60
75
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
6/23
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & JOBS AVAILABILITY(sa)
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, 4-week ma)
Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 14.
Consumer Confidence & Unemployment
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Figure 15.
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
40
60
80
100
120
Jun
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
50
100
150
Jun
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jun
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER OPTIMISM
Consumer Optimism Index*
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Source: The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and US Department of Labor.
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Consumer Confidence & Employment
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS(sa)
Percent ExpectingMore Jobs6 Months From Now
Percent ExpectingFewer Jobs6 Months From Now
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 16.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-42
-36
-30
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS(sa)
Percent Expecting More JobsMinus Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 17.
Consumer Confidence & Employment
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: BUSINESS CONDITIONS(sa)
Business Conditions6 Months Ahead
BetterWorsenSame
Source: Conference Board.
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Figure 18.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: HOME
Plans to Buy Within 6 Months: Home(% of respondents, sa)
Source: Conference Board.
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Figure 19.
Consumer Confidence & Employment
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201940
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jun
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Sentiment Index (98.2)Current Conditions (116.5)Expectations (86.3)
Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202040
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jun
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Current Conditions (116.5)Expectations (86.3)
Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 21.
Consumer Sentiment
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Figure 22.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
New England*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Jun
New England*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2115
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
JunMiddle Atlantic*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jun
Middle Atlantic*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
JunSouth Atlantic*
* New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont); Middle Atlantic (New Jersey, New York,Pennsylvania); South Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida).Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Jun
South Atlantic*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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Figure 23.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
East North Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jun
East North Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
JunEast South Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
JunEast South Central*
Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jun
West North Central*
* East North Central (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin); East South Central (Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi);West North Central (Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas). Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jun
West North Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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Figure 24.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2140
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jun
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
West South Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
35
50
65
80
95
110
125
140
155
170
185
200
215
Jun
West South Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jun
Mountain*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jun
Mountain*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun
Pacific*
* West South Central (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas); Mountain (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona,Utah, Nevada); Pacific (Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii).Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jun
Pacific*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
Jun
Jun
TotalCurrent ConditionsExpectations
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 25.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
May
Jun
NFIB: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)
NFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (32.8)
Jobs Plentiful(percent saying so) (40.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business.
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Figure 26.
Consumer Optimism Index
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82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jun
Q1
ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)
ECI: Wages & SalariesPrivate Industry(yearly percent change)
Jobs Plentiful*(percent saying so)
* Every other month from 1967 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board.
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Figure 27.
Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation
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Figure 28.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
JunMay
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index (112.3)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
-5
0
5
10
15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
JunMay
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index(1966=100) (98.2)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100) (126.4)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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Figure 29.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun
May
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index:Present Situation (138.8)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
-5
0
5
10
15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jun
May
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index:Current Conditions(1966=100) (116.5)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
50
100
150
200
Jun
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index:Current Conditions(1985=100) (161.1)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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Figure 30.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jun
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index:Expectations (94.8)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
-5
0
5
10
15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
JunMay
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index:Expectations(1966=100) (86.3)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
JunMay
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index:Expectations(1985=100) (103.2)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENTPresent Situation Component(1985=100, sa) (161.1)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change) (1.6)
Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 31.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-6
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENTPresent Situation Component(1985=100, sa) (161.1)
Household Employment(yearly percent change) (1.7)
Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 32.
Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
Page 21 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com
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