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US Economic Briefing: Consumer Confidence Yardeni Research, Inc. June 29, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box
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US Economic Briefing:Consumer Confidence

Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 29, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1Consumer Optimism 2Consumer Confidence 3-6Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 7-8Consumer Confidence & Employment 9-11Consumer Sentiment 12Consumer Confidence By Region 13-15Consumer Optimism Index 16Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation 17Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 18-21

Figure 1.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

CONSUMER SURVEYS

Jun

JunConsumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)

Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jun

EXPECTATIONS

Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)

Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.

yardeni.com

Consumer Confidence & Sentiment

Page 1 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Figure 2.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*

Jun

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2140

60

80

100

120

140

160

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun

CURRENT CONDITIONS

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130

50

70

90

110

130

30

50

70

90

110

130

EXPECTATIONS

Jun

* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.

yardeni.com

Consumer Optimism

Page 2 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1915

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)

Total (126.4)

Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20

40

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100

120

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160

180

200

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa)

Consumer Confidence Index (126.4)Current Conditions Component (161.1)Expectations Component (103.2)

Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

Consumer Confidence

Page 3 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)

Current Conditions Component (161.1)Expectations Component (103.2)

Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa)

Consumer Confidence Index (126.4)Current Conditions Component (161.1)Expectations Component (103.2)

Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

Consumer Confidence

Page 4 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS(1985=100, sa)

Age GroupUnder 35 (118.5)35-54 (134.2)55+ (123.0)

Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*

Jun

Total (112.3)Present (138.8)Expectations (94.8)

* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.

Consumer Confidence

Page 5 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY(percent saying so)

Jun

Jun

Jobs HardTo Get* (14.9)

Jobs Plentiful* (40.0)

* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY

Jobs Plentiful MinusJobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so) (25.1)

Current Conditions Index (161.1)

* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.

Consumer Confidence

Page 6 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

15

30

45

60

75

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Unemployment Rate(percent)

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY

Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)

Jun

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.

Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 205

10

15

20

0

15

30

45

60

75

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CONFIDENCE(sa)

Jun

Jobs Hard To Get(percent saying so)

U-6UnemploymentRate*(percent)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.* Total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus

all attached workers.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

Consumer Confidence & Unemployment

Page 7 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

200

400

600

800

Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, 4-week ma)

6/23

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(sa)

Jobs Hard To Get(percent saying so)

Jun

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.

yarden

i.com

Figure 13.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

15

30

45

60

75

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

6/23

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & JOBS AVAILABILITY(sa)

Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, 4-week ma)

Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)

* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

Consumer Confidence & Unemployment

Page 8 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Figure 15.

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

40

60

80

100

120

Jun

EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER SENTIMENT

Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)

Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

50

100

150

Jun

EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)

Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jun

EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER OPTIMISM

Consumer Optimism Index*

Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)

* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Source: The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and US Department of Labor.

yardeni.com

Consumer Confidence & Employment

Page 9 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS(sa)

Percent ExpectingMore Jobs6 Months From Now

Percent ExpectingFewer Jobs6 Months From Now

Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

-42

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS(sa)

Percent Expecting More JobsMinus Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs

Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index

Source: The Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

Consumer Confidence & Employment

Page 10 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: BUSINESS CONDITIONS(sa)

Business Conditions6 Months Ahead

BetterWorsenSame

Source: Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202

4

6

8

10

12

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: HOME

Plans to Buy Within 6 Months: Home(% of respondents, sa)

Source: Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

Consumer Confidence & Employment

Page 11 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201940

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jun

CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX(Q1-1966=100, nsa)

Consumer Sentiment Index (98.2)Current Conditions (116.5)Expectations (86.3)

Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202040

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jun

CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX(Q1-1966=100, nsa)

Current Conditions (116.5)Expectations (86.3)

Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

Consumer Sentiment

Page 12 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Figure 22.

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)

New England*

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Jun

New England*Current Conditions

Expectations

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2115

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

JunMiddle Atlantic*

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jun

Middle Atlantic*Current Conditions

Expectations

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

JunSouth Atlantic*

* New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont); Middle Atlantic (New Jersey, New York,Pennsylvania); South Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida).Source: The Conference Board.

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Jun

South Atlantic*Current Conditions

Expectations

yardeni.com

Consumer Confidence By Region

Page 13 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Figure 23.

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)

East North Central*

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jun

East North Central*Current Conditions

Expectations

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

JunEast South Central*

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

JunEast South Central*

Current Conditions

Expectations

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jun

West North Central*

* East North Central (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin); East South Central (Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi);West North Central (Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas). Source: The Conference Board.

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jun

West North Central*Current Conditions

Expectations

yardeni.com

Consumer Confidence By Region

Page 14 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Figure 24.

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2140

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jun

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)

West South Central*

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

35

50

65

80

95

110

125

140

155

170

185

200

215

Jun

West South Central*Current Conditions

Expectations

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jun

Mountain*

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jun

Mountain*Current Conditions

Expectations

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun

Pacific*

* West South Central (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas); Mountain (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona,Utah, Nevada); Pacific (Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii).Source: The Conference Board.

97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jun

Pacific*Current Conditions

Expectations

yardeni.com

Consumer Confidence By Region

Page 15 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*

Jun

Jun

TotalCurrent ConditionsExpectations

* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

May

Jun

NFIB: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)

NFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (32.8)

Jobs Plentiful(percent saying so) (40.0)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

Consumer Optimism Index

Page 16 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jun

Q1

ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)

ECI: Wages & SalariesPrivate Industry(yearly percent change)

Jobs Plentiful*(percent saying so)

* Every other month from 1967 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 27.

Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation

Page 17 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Figure 28.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

JunMay

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Optimism Index (112.3)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

-5

0

5

10

15

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

JunMay

CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Sentiment Index(1966=100) (98.2)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun

May

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100) (126.4)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation

Page 18 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Figure 29.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun

May

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Optimism Index:Present Situation (138.8)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

-5

0

5

10

15

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jun

May

CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Sentiment Index:Current Conditions(1966=100) (116.5)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

50

100

150

200

Jun

May

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Confidence Index:Current Conditions(1985=100) (161.1)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation

Page 19 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Figure 30.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Optimism Index:Expectations (94.8)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

-5

0

5

10

15

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

JunMay

CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Sentiment Index:Expectations(1966=100) (86.3)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

JunMay

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES

Consumer Confidence Index:Expectations(1985=100) (103.2)

Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (4.9)

Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation

Page 20 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

0

50

100

150

200

Jun

May

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENTPresent Situation Component(1985=100, sa) (161.1)

Payroll Employment(yearly percent change) (1.6)

Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

0

50

100

150

200

Jun

May

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENTPresent Situation Component(1985=100, sa) (161.1)

Household Employment(yearly percent change) (1.7)

Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.

Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation

Page 21 / June 29, 2018 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com

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