www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Market Outlook
for The Energy Forum November 29, 2012 | New York City, NY by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
My vision for the next four years at the Energy Information Administration
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Basic principles:
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• Better, faster, and cheaper data collection & analysis
• Adopt best practices
• More good people
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Today in Energy articles highlight a wide range of energy related topics: • Key findings from EIA reports
• Technological impacts
• Current events and trends
EIA website: a wealth of data and analysis
EIA updates state level datasets with mapping features and energy infrastructure datasets
Source: EIA
Interactive map links to state level energy data
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Significant energy infrastructure was threatened by the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy
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Source: EIA based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Power plants over 100 MW
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Source: EIA based on U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery and Reliability situation reports. Data reflects reports available through November 13.
Electric customer outages and restoration times from Hurricane Sandy
8/27/11 8/29 8/31 9/2 9/4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10/29 10/31 11/2 11/4 11/6 11/8 11/10 11/12
power outages million customers
Other States New Jersey
New York Pennsylvania
Hurricane Irene total outages
Sandy Irene
New York City metropolitan area covered by emergency survey
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Source: EIA Emergency Gasoline Availability Survey
New York City metropolitan area gas station availability
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov 6-Nov 7-Nov 8-Nov
Operating No contact No power No gasoline supply
percent of gas stations
Source: EIA Emergency Gasoline Availability Survey
Heating fuel market shares vary regionally
13
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012
DC
Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region, winter 2012-13
Northeast
South
Midwest
West
U.S. total 115 million homes
natural gas
propane heating oil electricity
wood kerosene/other/no heating
Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012
U.S. current population-weighted heating degree-days
The U.S. winter 2012-13 heating season forecast is about 4% warmer than the 30-year average, but 17% colder than last winter
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 (NOAA forecast)
14
Note: Horizontal bars indicate monthly average degree days over the period 1981-2010. Source: EIA calculations based on NOAA state history and forecasts (November 26, 2012) weighted by same-year populations.
Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012
Heating oil remains much more expensive than natural gas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
natural gas heating oil
15
U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars per million Btu
forecast history
Winter (October - March)
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2012
Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012
Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2035 …in absolute terms, all fuels grow except petroleum liquids
17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010
Renewables (excluding biofuels)
Liquid biofuels
Petroleum and other liquids
Coal
Nuclear
Natural gas
21%
37%
9%
25%
7% 1%
20%
32%
9%
26%
11% 4%
Share of total U.S. energy use
Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Energy-related CO2 emissions
2005 2020 2035 Energy-related CO2 emissions
6.00 5.43 5.76
% change from 2005 - - -9.4% -4.0%
Energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels in the AEO2012 Reference case
18
energy carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010 2005
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Lower 48 oil and gas shale plays and federal lands
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior ‘s National Atlas of the United States
Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years
20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Eagle Ford Bakken Granite Wash Bone Spring Monterey Woodford Niobrara Spraberry Austin Chalk
tight oil production for select plays million barrels of oil per day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rest of US
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Haynesville
Woodford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Antrim
shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day
Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012
Sources shale gas: Lippman Consulting, Inc. gross withdrawal estimates as of August 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.
Source tight oil: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through June 2012.
21
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010
Consumption
Domestic production
U.S. becomes a net natural gas exporter in 2022
5%
11% Net imports, 2010
Net exports, 2035
Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012
Bakken production on federal, non-federal and BIA lands
Source: EIA
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U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines …moves even lower in various side case scenarios
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0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012
Projections History 2010
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net petroleum imports 49% 36%
60%
2005
15% High TRR/ Vehicle Policy case Net imports, 2005
Net imports,
2035
Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
total liquids consumption million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010
Other non-OECD
OECD Americas
OECD
62
48
40%
19%
35%
41
Non-OECD 46
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U.S. leads the league table for non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth over the next two years
26
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Can
ada
Col
ombi
a
Rus
sia
Chi
na
Kaz
akhs
tan
Bra
zil
Indi
a
Viet
nam
Om
an
Gab
on
Egy
pt
Mal
aysi
a
Aus
tralia
Oth
er N
orth
Sea
Aze
rbai
jan
Mex
ico
Syr
ia
Nor
way
Sud
an
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
2012 2013
Source: EIA ,Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2012
change in production from previous year million barrels per day
Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012
Estimated unplanned production disruptions among non-OPEC producers, through October 2012
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Yemen United States Syria Sudan/S. Sudan North Sea Mexico Colombia China Canada Brazil Australia Argentina
thousand barrels per day
Source: EIA Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran Report, October 2012
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2012 oil production
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9.9 9.9
6.2
0.4 1.6
2.4
1.1
0.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Russia Saudi Arabia United States
Other
Refinery Gains
NGL
Crude
U.S. Q4 estimate 6.7 mb/d Crude oil
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, data through June 2012
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2001-2011 average Surplus Capacity
million barrels per day
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2012
forecast
Systemic energy security risk issues
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• Oil choke points
• Natural disasters
• Electric reliability concerns
• Refining capacity outages
• Other energy infrastructure issues
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Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
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