USA-NPN 2006 Integrating Phenological Measurements into Climate Monitoring.

USA-NPN 2006USA-NPN 2006

Integrating Phenological Integrating Phenological MeasurementsMeasurements

into into

Climate MonitoringClimate Monitoring


Definition of PhenologyDefinition of Phenology PhenologyPhenology which is derived from the Greek word which is derived from the Greek word

phainophaino meaning to show or to appear, meaning to show or to appear, is the study of is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events that are periodic plant and animal life cycle events that are influenced by environmental changes, especially influenced by environmental changes, especially seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation driven by weather and climate. driven by weather and climate. Thus, timings of Thus, timings of phenological events are ideal indicators of global phenological events are ideal indicators of global change impacts.change impacts.

SeasonalitySeasonality is a related term, referring to similar non- is a related term, referring to similar non-biological events, such as timing of the fall formation and biological events, such as timing of the fall formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water lakes. spring break-up of ice on fresh water lakes.


Examples of PhenologyExamples of Phenology Sprouting, leafing, and flowering of Sprouting, leafing, and flowering of

plants in springplants in spring Leaf color change in autumnLeaf color change in autumn Bird migration and nestingBird migration and nesting Insect hatchesInsect hatches Animal emergence from hibernationAnimal emergence from hibernation


Lilac First LeafLilac First Leaf


Lilac First BloomLilac First Bloom


History of PhenologyHistory of Phenology Ancient and traditional uses related to Ancient and traditional uses related to

agriculture, due to the connection of changes agriculture, due to the connection of changes in the local environment to plant in the local environment to plant development. development.

Specific events can serve as “indicators” to Specific events can serve as “indicators” to guide other activities. This can be useful for guide other activities. This can be useful for garden planting in the spring, especially for garden planting in the spring, especially for early season crops, or if some early planting early season crops, or if some early planting risk is needed to ensure success.risk is needed to ensure success.


New Uses of PhenologyNew Uses of Phenology Global Change ScienceGlobal Change Science—phenological —phenological

observations serve as an independent observations serve as an independent measure of the effect of climate change on measure of the effect of climate change on biological organisms.biological organisms.

Ecosystem linkagesEcosystem linkages—phenological —phenological observations at different levels of the food observations at different levels of the food chain (plant growth, insect hatching, bird chain (plant growth, insect hatching, bird feeding/nesting) can shed light on “ripple feeding/nesting) can shed light on “ripple effects” of climate change.effects” of climate change.


Critical Research AreasCritical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Atmosphere-Biosphere

InteractionsInteractions Long-term Organism Long-term Organism

response to Climate Changeresponse to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases Global Phenology Databases

for monitoring and for monitoring and managementmanagement


Carbon Assimilation

CO2 CH4

N2O VOCsDust

HeatMoistureMomentum

ClimateTemperature, Precipitation,Radiation, Humidity, Wind

ChemistryCO2, CH4, N2O

ozone, aerosols

MicroclimateCanopy Physiology

Species CompositionEcosystem StructureNutrient Availability

Water

DisturbanceFiresHurricanesIce StormsWindthrows

EvaporationTranspirationSnow MeltInfiltrationRunoff

GPP, Plant &Microbial RespirationNutrient Availability

Ecosystems

Species CompositionEcosystem Structure

WatershedsSurface Water

Subsurface WaterGeomorphology

Biogeophysics

Energ

y

Wate

r

Aero

-dynam

ics

Biogeochemistry

MineralizationDecomposition

HydrologySoil

Wate

r

Snow

Inte

r-ce

pte

dW

ate

r

PhenologyPhenologyBud Break

Leaf Senescence

HydrologicCycle

VegetationDynamics

Min

ute

s-T

o-H

ou

rsD

ays-T

o-W

eeks

Years

-To-C

en

turi

es

Phenology is an essential component of the biospherePhenology is an essential component of the biosphere

Bonan (2002) Ecological Climatology: Concepts and Applications. Cambridge University Press


Phenology modulates

terrestrial

carbon cycles at multiple

temporal & spatial scales

Global Change Influences & is Influenced by PhenologyGlobal Change Influences & is Influenced by Phenology

Amplification of seasonal cycle


Global Phenological MonitoringGlobal Phenological MonitoringIssues: Issues: Few Networks, Multiple Standards, and Little CoordinationFew Networks, Multiple Standards, and Little Coordination

EuropeEurope AsiaAsia North AmericaNorth America Southern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere Role of ISB Phenology CommissionRole of ISB Phenology Commission




Jill Attenborough, Woodland Trust

http://www.phenology.org.uk

157,000 observations from citizens

157,000 observations from citizens

In the UK in spring 2005 alone!

In the UK in spring 2005 alone!


Elisabeth BeaubienPlantwatch National CoordinatorUniversity of Alberta, Edmonton

www.naturewatch.ca


Example Benefits of Phenological Research/DataExample Benefits of Phenological Research/Data


Example Phenological Example Phenological ApplicationsApplications

(emphasizing advantages(emphasizing advantages of co-location/coordination of co-location/coordination

with climate data) with climate data)


Integrated ApproachIntegrated Approach(to Data Collection)(to Data Collection)

Satellite Observations Satellite Observations (MODIS-NDVI/EVI in USA)(MODIS-NDVI/EVI in USA)

Indicator Species PhenologyIndicator Species Phenology Native Species PhenologyNative Species Phenology


Cloned lilac first leaf and first bloom datesCloned lilac first leaf and first bloom datesat a single station in Vermontat a single station in Vermont


Spring indices based on first leaf date for lilacsSpring indices based on first leaf date for lilacs

Schwartz and Reiter 2000 Schwartz and Reiter 2000 International. J. ClimatologyInternational. J. Climatology

Syringa vulgarisSyringa vulgaris(common lilac)(common lilac)Syringa chinensisSyringa chinensis(cloned lilac)(cloned lilac)


Spring Index based on Simulated First Leaf Date: Slope from 1961-2000Spring Index based on Simulated First Leaf Date: Slope from 1961-2000

Spring Index based on Damage Index Value (First Leaf – Last Frost)Spring Index based on Damage Index Value (First Leaf – Last Frost)

Schwartz Schwartz et alet al..2006 2006 Global Global Change BiologyChange Biology


Integrated Species Indices (ISI)Integrated Species Indices (ISI)southwestern Wisconsinsouthwestern Wisconsin


Diurnal Range Change with Lilac First LeafDiurnal Range Change with Lilac First Leaf

- 5 6 - 4 2 - 2 8 - 1 4 0 1 4 2 8 4 2 5 6Days After First Leaf Date

7 . 5

8 . 5

9 . 5

1 0 . 5

1 1 . 5

1 2 . 5

1 3 . 5

1 4 . 5

1 5 . 5

Diu

rna

l R

an

ge

(°C

)Snow DateM ean = -27.9s.e. = 1.6 +

Freeze D ateM ean = +12.5s.e. = 0.9 +

Source: Schwartz 1996, Figure 3


Comparative Net Ecosystem ExchangeComparative Net Ecosystem Exchange

-70 -56 -42 -28 -14 0 14 28 42 56 70Days after Spring Index First Bloom

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

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-2

0

2

4

6

Mea

n D

aily

NE

E (

um

ol/m

2 /s)

Oak Ridge, TNH. Forest, MAM-Monroe, IN

Park Falls, W I


Spring Phenology Campaign 2006Spring Phenology Campaign 2006 Spatially: 3/7 cyclic sampling; 25m unit distance; 300m×600m Area; 216 treesSpatially: 3/7 cyclic sampling; 25m unit distance; 300m×600m Area; 216 trees


Start-of-Season ComparisonsStart-of-Season Comparisons


Hu, Q., Weiss, A., Feng, S., & Hu, Q., Weiss, A., Feng, S., & Baenziger, P.S. (2006) Baenziger, P.S. (2006) Early winter Early winter wheat heading dates and warmer wheat heading dates and warmer springs in the U.S. Great Plainssprings in the U.S. Great Plains. . Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 135:284135:284..

Heading date: when head (spike) on 50% of the Kharkof cultivar emerges from the flag leaf.

1946


Phenology can help in detecting/anticipating climate Phenology can help in detecting/anticipating climate change effects on the synchrony between organismschange effects on the synchrony between organisms

0

10

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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Host

Parasite

Plants and pollinatorsPlants and pollinators

Natural enemies of Natural enemies of insect pestsinsect pests


Forest wildfire frequency for Forest wildfire frequency for early, mid and late tercile early, mid and late tercile timing of spring since 1970.timing of spring since 1970.

Correlation between large (> Correlation between large (> 400 ha) forest wildfire400 ha) forest wildfirefrequency & streamflow frequency & streamflow center timing.center timing.

Fire Vulnerability Fire Vulnerability associated with earlier associated with earlier spring onset.spring onset.Vulnerability = % change Vulnerability = % change moisture deficit with moisture deficit with delayed spring onset, delayed spring onset, scaled by fraction of forest scaled by fraction of forest areaarea

Changes in Wildfire and the Timing of Spring in Western US ForestsChanges in Wildfire and the Timing of Spring in Western US ForestsA.L. Westerling, H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, T.W. Swetnam. A.L. Westerling, H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, T.W. Swetnam. Science Science (in press)(in press)


Vision of a USA National Vision of a USA National Phenology Network (NPN)Phenology Network (NPN) a continental-scale network a continental-scale network observing observing

regionally appropriate native plant species, regionally appropriate native plant species, cloned indicator plants (lilac +?), and cloned indicator plants (lilac +?), and selected agricultural cropsselected agricultural crops

designed to complement remote sensing designed to complement remote sensing observationsobservations

data collected will be freely available to the data collected will be freely available to the research community and general publicresearch community and general public


PREAMBLE:PREAMBLE: Phenology is a far-reaching component of Phenology is a far-reaching component of environmental science but is poorly understood. Critical environmental science but is poorly understood. Critical questions include how environmental factors affect the questions include how environmental factors affect the phenology of different organisms, and how those factors vary phenology of different organisms, and how those factors vary in importance on different spatial and temporal scales. in importance on different spatial and temporal scales. We We need to know how phenology affects the abundance and need to know how phenology affects the abundance and diversity of organisms, their function and interactions in the diversity of organisms, their function and interactions in the environment, especially their effects on fluxes in water, environment, especially their effects on fluxes in water, energy, and chemical elements at various scales.energy, and chemical elements at various scales. With With sufficient observations and understanding, phenology can be sufficient observations and understanding, phenology can be used as a predictor for other processes and variables of used as a predictor for other processes and variables of importance at local to global scales, and could drive a variety importance at local to global scales, and could drive a variety of ecological forecast models with both scientific and of ecological forecast models with both scientific and practical applications. practical applications.

USA-NPN Implementation Team 4/16/06USA-NPN Implementation Team 4/16/06


The predictive potential of phenological phenomena The predictive potential of phenological phenomena requires a new data resource, requires a new data resource, a national network of a national network of integrated phenological observations and the tools to integrated phenological observations and the tools to analyze them at multiple scales.analyze them at multiple scales. This network is essential to This network is essential to evaluate ongoing environmental changes. It can now evaluate ongoing environmental changes. It can now capitalize on integration with other observation networks capitalize on integration with other observation networks and remote sensing products, emerging technologies and and remote sensing products, emerging technologies and data management capabilities, myriad educational data management capabilities, myriad educational opportunities, and a new readiness of the public to opportunities, and a new readiness of the public to participate in investigations of nature on a national scale. participate in investigations of nature on a national scale.

USA-NPN Implementation Team 4/16/06USA-NPN Implementation Team 4/16/06


IntensiveIntensiveSitesSites

Spatially Extensive Spatially Extensive Science NetworksScience Networks

Remote Sensing andRemote Sensing andSynoptic (wall-to-wall) Synoptic (wall-to-wall)

DataData

Decr

easi

ng S

pati

al

Covera

ge

Incr

easi

ng P

roce

ss K

now

led

ge

Data

Qu

alit

y#

of

Measu

rem

ents

USA-NPN Monitoring FrameworkUSA-NPN Monitoring Framework

Spatially Extensive Spatially Extensive Volunteer & Education NetworksVolunteer & Education Networks

AmeriFlux, AgriFlux NSF LTER, NEON USGS WEBB USDA FS Exp. F & R

NWS Coop NPS Inv. & Mon. USDA FIA State Ag. Exp. Sta.

GLOBE Garden clubs Nat. Plant Soc. Campuses

NASA USGS NOAA


Colocation with NWS Colocation with NWS Cooperative Observer Cooperative Observer Program (COOP)Program (COOP)

Tier 2:Tier 2: Example of Example of Spatially Extensive Spatially Extensive Science NetworkScience Network


Tier 3:Tier 3: ExampleExampleOf Volunteer &Of Volunteer &Education Education NetworksNetworks


NPN-Tier 4:NPN-Tier 4: REMOTE SENSING REMOTE SENSING can fill gaps between ground can fill gaps between ground observations to produce a continuous surface of phenology observations to produce a continuous surface of phenology

estimates at the continental scaleestimates at the continental scale

Start of seasonEnd of seasonDuration of seasonPeak seasonSeasonally integrated vegetation index

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GPP avPg

NDVI

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GPP avPg

NDVI

Mandan, ND1999 2000

Days offsetn = 13x = 2.23std = 8.21

-10+5

Satellite SOS vs. GPP estimates (USDA-AgriFlux)

Land surface phenology metrics, based on time-series Vegetation Index


http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/Geography/npn/


Milestones for USA-NPNMilestones for USA-NPN

8/24-25/20058/24-25/2005 11stst NPN Planning Workshop, Tucson funded NPN Planning Workshop, Tucson funded

by NSF, USGS, NPS, FS, & EPAby NSF, USGS, NPS, FS, & EPA

3/22-24/20063/22-24/2006 NPN Implementation Team meetingNPN Implementation Team meeting

6/12/20066/12/2006 Presentation USGS Exec. Leadership TeamPresentation USGS Exec. Leadership Team

8/15/20068/15/2006 USGS Bureau Planning Council approvesUSGS Bureau Planning Council approves

$275K/yr for Natl. Coordinating Office$275K/yr for Natl. Coordinating Office

9/1/20069/1/2006 Univ. of AZ offers free space + Asst. Dir.Univ. of AZ offers free space + Asst. Dir.

9/8/20069/8/2006 USGS approves plan to locate Natl. OfficeUSGS approves plan to locate Natl. Office

at Univ. of Arizonaat Univ. of Arizona

10/1/200610/1/2006 USGS advertises Exec. Direction positionUSGS advertises Exec. Direction position

10/9-13/200610/9-13/2006 22ndnd NPN Planning Workshop, Milwaukee NPN Planning Workshop, Milwaukee

funded by NSF, USGS, FWS & NASAfunded by NSF, USGS, FWS & NASA

Fall/2006Fall/2006 NSF RCN grant $500K/5 yrs hopefully fundedNSF RCN grant $500K/5 yrs hopefully funded

1/01/20071/01/2007 National Coordinating Office staffed and located in TucsonNational Coordinating Office staffed and located in Tucson

Spring 2007Spring 2007 First set of observations nationwideFirst set of observations nationwide


Global Phenological Monitoring:Global Phenological Monitoring:Implementation ChallengesImplementation Challenges

Development of ProtocolsDevelopment of Protocols—in good shape thanks to —in good shape thanks to BBCH standardization BBCH standardization

Species selection/coordinationSpecies selection/coordination—careful study and —careful study and implementation using a nested approachimplementation using a nested approach

Data sharing agreementsData sharing agreements—non-trivial issue—non-trivial issue

Site Colocation and Integration IssuesSite Colocation and Integration Issues—being —being addressed by COST 725 action in Europe, different challenges addressed by COST 725 action in Europe, different challenges in other regionsin other regions


RecommendationsRecommendations Draw from NPN and EPN/COST experience Draw from NPN and EPN/COST experience as templates as templates

for starting phenology networks in other placesfor starting phenology networks in other places Consider funding a studyConsider funding a study of how to best establish of how to best establish

phenology networks, accounting for existing phenology networks, accounting for existing environmental networks and potential for volunteer environmental networks and potential for volunteer observers (best by country or continent?)observers (best by country or continent?)

First stepFirst step could be promotion of phenological could be promotion of phenological observations by national weather networksobservations by national weather networks

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USA-NPN 2006 Integrating Phenological Measurements into Climate Monitoring.

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