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R e p o r t o n t h e P o lis h p o w e r s y s t e m V e r s io n 1 .0 C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E
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Page 1: V e r s i o n 1 . 0 C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E › fileadmin2 › ... · U O K i K U r z ą d O c h r o n y K o n k u r e n c j i i K o n s u m e n t ó w ( O ffi c e o f C o m p

R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r

s y s t e m

V e r s i o n 1 . 0

C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E

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R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r

s y s t e m

I M P R I N T

C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E

R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

V e r s i o n 1 . 0

W R I T T E N B Y

E d i t h B a y e r

T h e R e g u l a t o r y A s s i s t a n c e P r o j e c t

5 0 S t a t e S t r e e t , S u i t e 3

M o n t p e l i e r , V T 0 5 6 0 2

U S A

O N B E H A L F O F

A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e

R o s e n s t r a ß e 2

1 0 1 7 8 B e r l i n

E d i t i n g : C h r i s t o p h P o d e w i l s

0 2 9 / 0 2 - C P - 2 0 1 4 / E N

T y p e s e t t i n g : P e t e r P e l i k a n

C o v e r : A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e

P u b l i s h e d i n F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 4

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C o n t e n t s

1 . O v e r v i e w 7

2 . I n d u s t r y s t r u c t u r e , o w n e r s h i p a n d r e g u l a t i o n 9

2 . 1 I n d u s t r y s t r u c t u r e 9

2 . 2 O w n e r s h i p s t r u c t u r e o f P o l i s h e n e r g y c o m p a n i e s 1 1

2 . 3 P o l i c y s e t t i n g a n d r e g u l a t i o n 1 1

2 . 4 T r a n s p o s i t i o n o f E U e n e r g y p o l i c y 1 2

3 . E n e r g y p r o d u c t i o n a n d c o n s u m p t i o n 1 3

3 . 1 I n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y 1 3

3 . 2 E l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n 1 4

3 . 3 E l e c t r i c i t y c o n s u m p t i o n 1 5

3 . 4 P e a k d e m a n d 1 5

3 . 5 P l a n n e d c o n v e n t i o n a l p o w e r p l a n t s i n t h e p i p e l i n e 1 6

4 . I m p o r t s a n d e x p o r t s 1 9

5 . E l e c t r i c i t y m a r k e t 2 3

5 . 1 W h o l e s a l e m a r k e t , p r i c e s a n d l i q u i d i t y 2 3

5 . 1 . 1 E l e c t r i c i t y m a r k e t d e s i g n 2 3

5 . 1 . 2 M a r k e t l i q u i d i t y 2 4

5 . 2 T h e r e t a i l m a r k e t 2 5

5 . 3 A l l o c a t i o n o f g r i d c o s t s 2 6

6 . E l e c t r i c i t y b a l a n c i n g / r e s e r v e m a r k e t s 2 7

7 . L o n g - t e r m e n e r g y p o l i c y / d e c a r b o n i s a t i o n 2 9

8 . R e n e w a b l e e n e r g y 3 1

9 . E n e r g y e ffi c i e n c y 3 3

1 0 . G r i d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e a n d r e l i a b i l i t y 3 5

1 0 . 1 G e n e r a t i o n a d e q u a c y s t a n d a r d 3 5

1 0 . 2 C u r r e n t S A I D I 3 5

1 0 . 3 S m a r t m e t e r i n g 3 6

R e f e r e n c e s 3 7

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A c r o n y m s

C A C M C a p a c i t y A l l o c a t i o n a n d C o n g e s t i o n M a n a g e m e n t

C C S C a r b o n C a p t u r e & S e q u e s t r a t i o n

C E E C e n t r a l E a s t e r n E u r o p e

C E E R C o u n c i l o f E u r o p e a n E n e r g y R e g u l a t o r s

C F I M C o m m o d i t y F o r w a r d I n s t r u m e n t s M a r k e t w i t h P h y s i c a l D e l i v e r y

D S O D i s t r i b u t i o n S y s t e m O p e r a t o r

E C E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o n

E D F É l e c t r i c i t é d e F r a n c e

E N T S O - E E u r o p e a n N e t w o r k o f T r a n s m i s s i o n S y s t e m O p e r a t o r s f o r E l e c t r i c i t y

E R O P o l i s h E n e r g y R e g u l a t o r y O ffi c e

E S D E ff o r t S h a r i n g D e c i s i o n

E T S E U E m i s s i o n s T r a d i n g S c h e m e

E U E u r o p e a n U n i o n

G H G G r e e n h o u s e G a s

G W G i g a w a t t

G W h G i g a w a t t h o u r

H H I H e r fi n d a h l - H i r s c h m a n I n d e x

K W K i l o w a t t

M W M e g a w a t t

P G E P o l s k a G r u p a E n e r g e t y c z n a S A

P O E E W a r s a w S t o c k E x c h a n g e P l a t f o r m f o r T r a d i n g E l e c t r i c i t y

P o l P x P o l i s h P o w e r E x c h a n g e

P S E P S E O p e r a t o r

S A I D I S y s t e m A v e r a g e I n t e r r u p t i o n D u r a t i o n I n d e x

T S O T r a n s m i s s i o n S y s t e m O p e r a t o r

T W T e r a w a t t

T W h T e r a w a t t h o u r

U O K i K U r z ą d O c h r o n y K o n k u r e n c j i i K o n s u m e n t ó w ( O ffi c e o f C o m p e t i t i o n a n d C o n s u m e r P r o t e c t i o n )

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P r e f a c e

Dear reader,

A glance at a map reveals a simple truth: Geographically speaking, Germany lies in the heart of Europe. Knowing thatannual electricity demand in Germany is the highest in Europe, its generation fleet the largest, and its power system in-terconnected with ten countries with a total transfer capacity of almost 17 GW, onemaywonder how anyone could claimthat the Energiewende is purely a national endeavour. The opposite is true: German and European energy systems areheavily intertwined. Whatever happens in Germany has effects on its neighbours and vice versa. It is widely acceptedthat enhancing cooperation among European partners would create positive welfare effects for all. Sharing resources anddeveloping joint regulatory frameworks could, for instance, help achieving system reliability at lower costs and balancevariable power generation across Europe.

Cooperation starts with mutual understanding. So far, the German energy debate has been focused merely on the Germanpower system, with very little awareness of neighbouring countries. In order to enhance the knowledge basis and pre-pare the ground for thinking about potential cooperation, Agora Energiewende asked the Regulatory Assistance Project(RAP) to develop a set of short, standard and readable reports on the power sectors of Germany’s neighbouring countries,focusing on key features, regulatory frameworks and important political developments. Originally, the country profileswere supposed to serve internal purposes only. But, as we believe this information could be valuable for others as well, wedecided to publish it and make it accessible to everyone.

This country profile on Poland is the first of a series that will eventually cover twelve countries - including one on Ger-many. It is certainly not exhaustive. We rather consider it as work in progress that wewill be reviewing on a regular ba-sis, checking latest developments, improving the text and adding new aspects. Wewould thus invite everyone to send uscomments and corrections that could be incorporated into the next versions to [email protected].

May this country profile be helpful for your work!

Dr. Patrick Graichen

Executive Director of Agora Energiewende

Markus Steigenberger

Head of European Energy Cooperation of Agora Energiewende

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

1 . O v e r v i e w

This report explores the structure of the Polish power sector.It looks at the fuel mix, production and consumption, own-ership andmarket structure, cross-border trade, and energypolicy.

Poland’s power sector is dominated by hard coal and lignite,which in 2012 accounted for 88.6 percent of total electricityproduction. Nearly 55 percent of coal-fired power plants are30 years old or older, and a significant portion of the gener-ation fleet will need to be retired between now and 2030 inorder to comply with European environmental regulations.The power market is dominated by four large, vertically in-tegrated power companies, which are legally unbundled.The three largest generating companies in Poland accountfor some two thirds of production, and wholesale marketconcentration remains relatively high.

Poland is interconnected with its neighbours, Germany,Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and Sweden. Overthe past decade, Poland has been a net exporter of electricity,though exports have been dropping in recent years. There isa marked difference between contracted cross-border powerflows and total physical flows, primarily due to unplannedflows through Poland carrying electricity from Germanytowards Austria.

Poland expects to see an increase in overall demand for elec-tricity through 2030, combinedwith a trend of decommis-sioning old power plants. The Polish Energy Policy to 2030foresees significant investments in coal and lignite, devel-opment of nuclear power, and some added investment inrenewable energy and gas-fired capacity to meet demandin 2030. In order to reduce carbon in the electricity sector,the energy policy depends largely on construction of nuclearpower and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for coaland natural gas. Energy efficiency is expected to play a rolein slowing the growth in demand.

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

2 . I n d u s t r y s t r u c t u r e , o w n e r s h i p a n d r e g u l a t i o n

M a i n i n d i c a t o r s T a b l e 1

T o t a l p o p u l a t i o n : 3 8 . 5 1 m i l l i o n ( 2 0 1 1 )

G D P : € 4 8 9 . 8 b i l l i o n

A v e r a g e e l e c t r i c i t y

c o n s u m p t i o n :

2 3 0 3 k W h / y e a r p e r h o u s e -

h o l d ( 2 0 0 9 )

T o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n : 1 5 7 T W h

O w n r e s e a r c h

1 Market shares for 2011 from Energa (2013)2 Woszczyk (2013), p. 153 Market shares for 2012 for PGE, Tauron, and EDF fromWoszczyk

(2013)

2 . 1 I n d u s t r y s t r u c t u r e

Poland has unbundled electric transmission from distribu-tion. The Transmission System Operator (TSO), PSE Operator,is the owner and operator of the national transmission gridand it in turn is wholly owned by the State Treasury. Thereare five distribution companies which, while legally unbun-dled, are in fact part of large parent companies with signifi-cant generation and distribution assets, as well as a signifi-cant share of the retail market. Two companies, Energa andRWE, do not own a large amount of generation assets.

M a r k e t s h a r e o f P o l i s h e l e c t r i c i t y c o m p a n i e s T a b l e 2

S e c t o r L e a d i n g c o m p a n i e s M a r k e t s h a r e R e m a i n i n g c o m p a n i e s

T r a n s m i s s i o n P S E O p e r a t o r 1 0 0 % N o n e

D i s t r i b u t i o n1

T a u r o n D y s t r y b u c j a 3 6 . 9 % 1 4 3 s m a l l D S O s ( u n d e r 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 c u s t o m e r s )2

P G E D y s t r y b u c j a 2 5 . 5 %

E n e r g a - O p e r a t o r 1 6 . 1 %

E n e a O p e r a t o r 1 4 %

R W E S t o e n O p e r a t o r 5 . 8 %

G e n e r a t i o n3

P G E 3 8 % G D F S U E Z , P G N i G , D a l k i a , C E Z , F o r t u m , R W E

T A U R O N 1 3 %

E D F 1 0 %

E n e a4

8 %

Z E P A K5

7 %

R e t a i l6

T a u r o n P o l s k a E n e r g i a 3 6 . 1 % 7 7 o t h e r a c t i v e r e t a i l s u p p l i e r s , t o t a l , 2 0 1 2

P G E 2 4 . 4 %

E n e r g a 1 4 . 9 %

E n e a 1 1 . 5 %

R W E 5 . 1 %

O t h e r 8 %

4 Enea (2013a)5 Market shares for 2012 from PAK (2013)6 Energa (2013)

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A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

D S O s – G e o g r a p h i c S e r v i c e A r e a s F i g u r e 1

NumberBofBTPABcustomersB

acrossBtheBareasBofBtheBfiveBDSOs

I.B-BCustomersBinBGBtariffBgroup

II.B-BCustomersBinBA,BB,BCBtariffBgroups

W o s z c z y k ( 2 0 1 3 )

The consolidation of Polish power companies into four (PGE,Tauron, Energa, and Enea) vertically integrated, state-ownedcompanies is the result of a policy adopted in 2006, the “Pro-gramme for the Electric Power Sector”. This strategic docu-ment, adopted by the Council of Ministers, laid down a pathfor the development of the power market in Poland. The pro-gramme called for the consolidation of energy companies

into four, vertically integrated energy groups holding gen-eration and distribution assets, and owned by the NationalTreasury. Today, three out of four of the largest distributioncompanies remain majority owned by the State Treasury.

PGE holds the largest share of power production, followedby Tauron Polska and Électricité de France (EDF). Together,

1 0

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

these companies account for 61 percent of total electricityproduction in Poland.

In 2012, there were 82 active retail suppliers on the electric-ity market, though the top four suppliers accounted for 86.9percent of the retail market. 360 entities were licensed totrade in electricity – primarily vertically integrated indus-trial power companies conducting sales and distributionservices.7

2 . 2 O w n e r s h i p s t r u c t u r e o f P o l i s h e n e r g y

c o m p a n i e s

Most of the Polish power companies continue to be ownedby the State Treasury. The Treasurywholly owns PSE Op-erator, the TSO, and holds a majority share in PGE, Energa,and Enea. Tauron is the only one of the four energy giantsnot majority owned by the Treasury, though the Treasurycontinues to hold a 30 percent stake in the company. RWEPolska is wholly owned by RWE.

7 Woszczyk (2013), p. 198 GK PGE (2013)9 Tauron (2013)10 The Initial Public Offering of Energa’s shares on theWarsaw Stock

Exchange on 11 December 2013 brought the Treasury’s shares in thecompany down to 50 percent. Martewicz (2013)

2 . 3 P o l i c y s e t t i n g a n d r e g u l a t i o n

The Polish Energy Regulatory Office (ERO) is responsiblefor the regulation of the electricity, gas, and heating mar-kets. Its responsibilities are set forth in the Polish EnergyAct of 1997 (“Energy Act”), which has been amended overtime. The ERO is an independent agency. The President ofthe ERO is appointed by the PrimeMinister for a term of fiveyears. The ERO’s responsibilities include: licensing, settingtariffs, approving investment plans by regulated companies,deregulation of electricity and gas markets, and oversightover quality of supply and customer service. The ERO alsooversees compliance with energy company obligations un-der Poland’s “coloured” certificate schemes. The ERO is incharge of issuing certificates (white certificates for energyefficiency, green for renewable energy, etc.), as well as re-tiring certificates to track compliance with correspondingobligations.13

TheMinistry of Economy is responsible for preparing areport on the security of electricity supply every two years.The last report was prepared in 2013.14 The President of

O w n e r s h i p s t r u c t u r e o f P o l i s h e n e r g y c o m p a n i e s T a b l e 3

C o m p a n i e s O w n e r s h i p

P S E O p e r a t o r 1 0 0 % o w n e d b y t h e S t a t e T r e a s u r y .

P G E 6 1 . 9 % S t a t e T r e a s u r y ; 3 8 . 1 % o t h e r s h a r e h o l d e r s .8

T a u r o n 3 0 % S t a t e T r e a s u r y ; 1 0 % K G H M P o l s k a M i e d z ; 5 % I N G R e t i r e m e n t F u n d ; 5 5 % o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l

a n d i n s t i t u t i o n a l i n v e s t o r s .9

E n e r g a 5 0 % S t a t e T r e a s u r y ; 5 0 % r e m a i n i n g s h a r e h o l d e r s .1 0

E n e a 5 1 % S t a t e T r e a s u r y ; 1 9 % V a t t e n f a l l A B ; 3 0 % o t h e r s .1 1

R W E R W E P o l s k a i s w h o l l y o w n e d b y R W E E a s t , w h i c h i n t u r n i s w h o l l y o w n e d b y R W E A G , w h i c h i s

8 6 % o w n e d b y i n s t i t u t i o n a l i n v e s t o r s , 1 3 % p r i v a t e s h a r e h o l d e r s , a n d 1 % e m p l o y e e s .1 2

11 Enea (2013b)12 RWE (2012)13 More on ERO’s responsibilities is available at http://www.ure.gov.

pl/en/about-us/presidents-duties/22,Presidents-duties.html(English).

14 Ministry of Economy (2013)

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A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

the ERO is also obliged to prepare a report on the conditionsof conducting electricity business and the monitoring ofnetwork investments, which is also required on a bi-annualbasis.13

Poland’s competition authority is Urząd OchronyKonkurencji i Konsumentów (UOKiK). It is responsible forshaping antitrust and consumer protection policies, includ-ing those in the power sector. The ERO also plays a role inantitrust and competition issues. For example, it has di-rected cases to UOKiK relating to customer complaints ofcompany activities related to customer switching.14

The PolishMinistry of Economy is responsible for settingenergy policy in the country. TheMinistry issues legislativeproposals, such as amendments to the Energy Law or theAct on Energy Efficiency. TheMinistry consults the ERO onenergy-related policies.

2 . 4 T r a n s p o s i t i o n o f E U e n e r g y p o l i c y

Currently, Poland is subject to three infringement proceed-ings relating to the energy sector:

→ InMarch 2013, the European Commission referredPoland to the Court of Justice for failing to transpose theRenewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC).15

→ In June 2013, the Commission issued a Reasoned Opinionfor Poland to take action and ensure full compliance withits obligations under the Energy Performance of BuildingsDirective (2010/31/EC).

→ In September 2013, the European Commission issued aReasoned Opinion asking Poland to transpose the EU ETSDirective (2009/29/EC) into national law.16

In August 2013, the Polish Government adopted a legisla-tive package introducing changes to the Energy Act relating

13 Article 23.2a of the Polish Energy Act14 Woszczyk (2013)15 European Commission (2013a)16 European Commission (2013b)

to regulation of the electricity and natural gas sectors, andrenewable energy.17 The legislation brought Poland intocompliance with the Third Energy Package, but not withthe Renewable Energy Directive.18 Poland has not yet com-plied with its obligations under the Energy Performance ofBuildings Directive.

17 The package is referred to as the “Three-pack” as it amends leg-islation relating to electricity, natural gas, and renewable en-ergy. The text of the legislation is available in Polish at http://isap.sejm.gov.pl/DetailsServlet?id=WDU20130000984.

18 Euroinfrastructure.eu (2013)

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

3 . E n e r g y p r o d u c t i o n a n d c o n s u m p t i o n

M a i n i n d i c a t o r s T a b l e 4

I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y : 3 8 G W ( 2 0 1 2 )

P e a k D e m a n d : 2 9 , 2 8 7 M W ( J a n 2 0 1 2 )

E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n : 1 5 7 , 0 1 3 G W h ( 2 0 1 2 )

3 . 1 I n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y

Poland has a little more than 38 GW of installed capacity.The power mix is dominated by hard coal and lignite, whichaccount for 88.6 percent of total electricity production. Com-bined heat and power plays a significant role in the Polishpower sector. In 2011, 16.6 percent of total electric genera-

P o l i s h p o w e r m i x , i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y i n

G W ( T o t a l o f 3 8 . 0 3 G W ) , 2 0 1 2 F i g u r e 2

2.6

2.2

2.5

9.6

0.9

20.2

Hard Coal

Lignite

Industrial power

Large hydro

Wind, other renewables

Gas

P S E ( 2 0 1 3 )

tion in Poland was combined heat and power production.19

At the end of 2012, renewable energy accounted for about4.8 GW of the installed capacity, including 1,330MWofpumped hydro. In 2013, the share of renewable energy in-creased due to the addition of significant wind resourcesto the mix. Figure 3 shows the mix of renewable sources inSeptember 2013.20

I n s t a l l e d r e n e w a b l e c a p a c i t y i n G W ( T o -

t a l o f 6 . 5 G W ) , 2 0 1 3 F i g u r e 3

Wind

Biomass

Hydro

Biogas

2.30

0.15

3.08

0.97

E n e r g y R e g u l a t o r y O ffi c e ( 2 0 1 3 a ) a n d P S E ( 2 0 1 3 )

19 Eurostat (2013a)20 Note that biomass in this graph counts only biomass-fired facilities,

and does not account for co-firing.

1 3

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E l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n b y e n e r g y s o u r c e , 1 9 5 0 – 2 0 1 2 ( i n G W h ) F i g u r e 4

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

GW

h

1950

195

1

1953

1955

1957

1959

196

1

196

3

196

5

196

7

196

9

197

1

1973

1975

1977

1979

198

1

198

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

20

01

2003

2005

20

07

200

9

20

11

1952

1954

1956

1958

196

0

196

2

196

4

196

6

196

8

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

2000

2002

200

4

2006

2008

20

10

20

12

Years

Hard coal

Large hydro

Lignite

Wind and other renewables

Natural gas

Thermal power plants

Industrial power stations

Total

P S E ( 2 0 1 3 )

3 . 2 E l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n

In 2012, national gross electricity production was 159,853GWh. This was 2 percent smaller than in the previous year,due to the economic downturn.21 Renewable electricityproduction has increased significantly since 2008, primar-ily due to increases in wind power and co-firing. Whileco-firing is difficult to take into account when calculatinginstalled capacity, energy production from co-firing can betracked by Poland’s green certificates scheme. In 2012, re-newable energy production, including co-firing, accountedfor about 8.7 percent of total energy production. Co-firingaccounted for about 41 percent, and wind accounted forabout 32 percent. 22

21 Woszczyk (2013), p. 1222 PolishWind Energy Association (2013) and PSE (2013)

R e n e w a b l e e n e r g y p r o d u c t i o n ,

2 0 0 6 – 2 0 1 2 ( i n G W h ) F i g u r e 5

BiogasBiomass

Solar9PVWind

HydroCo-firing

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

P o l i s h W i n d E n e r g y A s s o c i a t i o n ( 2 0 1 3 ) . N o t e t h a t t h e d a t a a r e b a s e d o n

r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y c e r t i fi c a t e s i s s u e d a s o f 2 3 A p r i l 2 0 1 3 .

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

3 . 3 E l e c t r i c i t y c o n s u m p t i o n

Electricity consumption in 2012 was 157,013 GWh. This was0.6 percent smaller than 2011. The drop is attributable inpart to increased end-use energy efficiency. According tothe PolishMinistry of Economy, electricity consumption isexpected to rise to just under 167,600 GWh by 2030.23

3 . 4 P e a k d e m a n d

In Poland, peak demand occurs in the winter early eveninghours. The annual peak in 2012 occurred on 7 February atapproximately 17:30. The lowest level of demand occurredon 17 June at 22:00.24 It is important to note that while the

A v a i l a b l e c a p a c i t y o f d o m e s t i c p o w e r p l a n t s a n d t h e p e a k d e m a n d a t t h e e v e n i n g p e a k , 2 0 1 2 a v e r -

a g e v a l u e s o n w o r k i n g d a y s i n a m o n t h ( i n M W s ) F i g u r e 6

X

X

X

XXX

X

X

X

X

XX

X

X

X

X

X

X X

X

X

XX

X

30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000

22,000

20,000

18,000

MW

Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Aug 2012 Sept 2012 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012

29,267.0

25,135.6

25,844.7

23,505.7

22,425.2

20,409.8

19,489.0 19,349.3

21,067.7

22,233.7

23,554.423,870.6

25,123.4

29,080.328,680.7

26,935.5

24,966.7

26,205.7

24,317.6 24,546.1 24,502.6

26,106.1

27,695,4

28,504,1

Maximum domestic capacity demandX Available capacity of domestic power plantsX

W o s z c z y k ( 2 0 1 3 )

23 Energy Regulatory Office (2011), p. 3024 PSE (2013)

peak demand occurs in winter, the lowest level of reservesoccurs in summer – 4 percent in 2012. (The TransmissionGrid Code requires an operational reserve of 9 percent,which wasmet or exceeded in 2012 for all but four weeks ofthe year.)25 This is due to the fact that less capacity is avail-able in summer as some combined heat and power plantsclose when the heating season is over.

Figure 6 shows available capacity of domestic power plantsduring evening peaks, alongside peak demand, in 2012. Thelow level of reserves experienced in June 2012 is not re-flected, as it occurred during the morning hours.

25 Woszczyk (2013), p. 38

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A n t i c i p a t e d i n c r e a s e i n d e m a n d , 2 0 0 8 – 2 0 3 0 F i g u r e 7

M i n i s t r y o f E c o n o m y ( 2 0 1 1 ) , p . 1 8

3 . 5 P l a n n e d c o n v e n t i o n a l p o w e r p l a n t s i n t h e

p i p e l i n e

Poland has a number of planned conventional power plantsin the pipeline. In order to put these plans in context, it isuseful to first consider the broader resource context inPoland. Between now and 2030, Poland is expected to de-commission 12.26 GW of generation capacity. 4.4 GW ofcapacity are expected to decommission between 2014 and2017.26

Figure 7 demonstrates the anticipated increase in demandbetween 2008 and 2030 and the reduction in available ca-pacity as existing capacity is retired. The top line represents

26 Easton (2013)

total power demand, plus a 15 percent capacity margin.27

The red line below that represents actual projected demand.

According to the Polish Energy Policy for 2030, the gap inavailable capacity is expected to be met with a combinationof lignite, hard coal, and nuclear power, as well as some in-crease in natural gas and renewable generation. At the sametime, there is significant uncertainty as to how the fuel mixwill in fact develop, given the timeframe and level of invest-ment needed.

Figure 8 shows the expected share of various fuels in elec-

27 It is worth noting that the 15 percent capacity margin is higherthan the current operational reserve of 9 percent mandated by theTransmission Grid Code.

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

F u e l m i x i n e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n – f o r e -

c a s t f o r 2 0 3 0 ( 1 9 3 , 2 T W h ) F i g u r e 8

Lignite

Hard Coal

Natural Gas

Fuel Oil Biogas

Nuclear Power Hydro

Biomass Wind

33 %

21 %10 %

10 %

17 %

4 %

2 %

1 %

1 %

M i n i s t r y o f E c o n o m y ( 2 0 1 1 ) T a b l e 3 . 7

tricity production in 2030 as set forth in the Polish En-ergy Strategy to 2030.28 It is worth noting that in a highercarbon-price scenario, the Strategy foresees a greater shareof demand to be met by natural gas (35 percent greater thanin the baseline scenario) and biomass, with a 15 percent de-crease in the share of hard coal in the fuel mix.

Currently a number of gas- and coal- fired power plants arebeing planned, though the dates for starting operations re-main uncertain. Table 5 lists the conventional power plantsthat are being planned, their net capacity, fuel and currentstatus.

28 Ministry of Economy (2011) p 44

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P l a n n e d c o n v e n t i o n a l p o w e r p l a n t s T a b l e 5

C o m p a n y / n a m e N e t c a p a c i t y F u e l S t a t u s

P G E , T u r ó w 4 3 0 M W L i g n i t e T e n d e r e d

P G E , O p o l e 1 , 8 0 0 M W H a r d c o a l A f t e r t e n d e r

T a u r o n , J a w o r z n o 9 1 0 M W H a r d c o a l T e n d e r e d

E n e a , K o z i e n i c e 9 0 0 M W H a r d c o a l A f t e r t e n d e r

Z a k ł a d y A z o t o w e P u ł a w y S A M e l a m i n a

I I I

8 4 0 M W G a s C C G T A n n o u n c e d / p l a n n i n g b e g u n

P o l s k i K o n c e r n N a f t o w y O r l e n S A

W ł o c ł a w e k

4 7 0 M W G a s C C G T F i n a n c i n g s e c u r e d / u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n

E l e k t r o w n i a B l a c h o w i n a N o w a S p z o o 8 0 8 M W G a s C C G T A n n o u n c e d / p l a n n i n g b e g u n

E l e k t r o w n i a P ó ł n o c S P Z o o 2 , 0 0 0 M W C o a l A n n o u n c e d / p l a n n i n g b e g u n

E n e r g a I n v e s t S A P r o g a z G a s P o w e r

P l a n t

1 , 0 0 0 M W G a s C C G T A n n o u n c e d / p l a n n i n g b e g u n

E n e r g a I n v e s t S A P r o g a z C H P G a s P o w e r

P l a n t

2 0 0 M W G a s C C G T A n n o u n c e d / p l a n n i n g b e g u n

F o r t u m P o w e r a n d H e a t P o l s k a W r o c ł a w

C H P G a s P o w e r P l a n t

4 0 0 M W G a s C C G T A n n o u n c e d / p l a n n i n g b e g u n

B l o o m b e r g N e w E n e r g y F i n a n c e a n d o w n a n a l y s i s

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4 . I m p o r t s a n d e x p o r t s

Poland is interconnected with its neighbours Germany, Slo-vakia, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and Sweden. For pur-poses of this paper, we focus on interconnections only withEUMember States, thereby omitting Ukraine from the anal-ysis. Poland is a net exporter of electricity, though the ratioof exports to imports has been declining, and in fact Polandfaces a potential capacity shortage by 2016 as not enoughnew capacity is expected to come online to make up for ca-pacity reductions.29 The surplus of exports over importsamounted to 3,606 GWh in 2012, which was lower than in2011 (5,309 GWh). Most Polish exports flow to Slovakia andthe Czech Republic, while most imports come from Germany.

Transmission capacity between Poland, Germany, the CzechRepublic, and Slovakia is allocated via coordinated explicitauctions between the transmission system operators inthe Central Eastern Europe (CEE) region. Auctions are or-ganized and conducted by the Central Allocation Office inFreising/Germany. Trading along the Polish-Swedish inter-connector – SwePol Link – is carried out through amarketcoupling mechanism. Transactions are carried out throughthe power exchanges (POLPX and Nord Pool Spot) on a day-

29 4.4 GW of capacity are planned to be decommissioned between2014 and 2017, and 12.26 GW of capacity are expected to decommis-sion by 2030. Sections 7. and 10. of this report address the capacityshortage and planned additions to the power system inmore detail.

ahead basis.30 In July 2013, Poland signed aMemorandum ofUnderstanding to join with Romania in the integrated day-ahead electricity markets of the Czech Republic, Slovakia,and Hungary.31

I m p o r t / e x p o r t b a l a n c e , 2 0 0 2 – 2 0 1 2 ( i n

G W h , p h y s i c a l fl o w s ) F i g u r e 9

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

20102011

2012

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

I m p o r t / e x p o r t b a l a n c e s ( e x p o r t s − i m p o r t s ) ( i n G W h , p h y s i c a l fl o w s ) T a b l e 6

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2

C Z 8 , 0 9 4 9 , 4 2 6 9 , 0 7 1 1 1 , 0 9 0 9 , 9 8 5 9 , 1 9 7 6 , 8 4 0 7 , 0 9 5 5 , 3 5 4 8 , 1 9 7 8 , 7 5 4

S K 2 , 2 9 4 2 , 7 2 8 2 , 6 2 3 2 , 7 9 2 3 , 3 7 3 3 , 6 0 0 2 , 5 5 1 2 , 3 3 7 1 , 4 9 9 3 , 0 5 2 3 , 4 9 8

S E − 9 2 9 2 , 6 3 5 2 , 1 6 4 3 6 5 1 , 2 2 7 − 1 , 9 8 0 − 1 , 9 2 0 − 1 , 1 3 9 − 2 6 6 − 1 , 2 3 6 − 2 , 6 1 8

D E − 1 , 2 6 6 − 2 , 4 7 9 − 2 , 7 5 4 − 1 , 2 1 8 − 1 , 8 2 6 − 4 , 8 4 1 − 5 , 4 8 1 − 5 , 4 8 2 − 5 , 1 6 4 − 4 , 7 0 4 − 6 , 0 2 8

T o t a l 8 , 1 9 3 1 2 , 3 1 0 1 1 , 1 0 4 1 3 , 0 2 9 1 2 , 7 5 9 5 , 9 7 6 1 , 9 9 0 2 , 8 1 1 1 , 4 2 3 5 , 3 0 9 3 , 6 0 6

E u r o s t a t ( 2 0 1 3 c ) a n d E u r o s t a t ( 2 0 1 3 d )

30 Woszczyk (2012), p. 2231 CEPS (2013)

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A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

It is important to note that the import/export balancesrecorded for Poland reflect physical flows. There is a markeddifference between the volume of physical flows and con-tractual imports/exports, particularly between Poland andGermany. In 2011, for example, gross contracts for importsamounted to 1,984 GWh, while physical cross-border flowsinto Poland were 6,779 GWh. Similarly, 7,234 GWh of energywere contracted for export, while electricity dispatched fromPoland amounted to 12,023 GWh.32

Poland, in commonwith other countries in the CEE region,experiences physical energy flows that often differ markedlyfrom those expected from commercial activities.33 Theseunplanned or “loop flows” are principally associated withenergy transactions within the common German-Austrianbidding zone and tend to flow from Germany through Poland,the Czech Republic, and Slovakia into Austria and Hungaryand partly back to Germany. The impact of these loop flowscan be to add to or cause network congestion in the transitcountries, incurring re-dispatch costs and reducing avail-able interconnection capacity. In extremis, loop flows cancause transit systems to become insecure due to the possibil-ity of post-fault or even pre-fault circuit overloading.

In January 2013, the regulators from Poland, the Czech Re-public, Slovakia, and Hungary undertook a study to assessthe scope of unplanned power flows in the CEE region, andthe effect of these flows on power systems.34 Scheduledcommercial flows between Germany and Austria representabout 28 percent of all exchanges within the CEE region.Poland and the Czech Republic were identified as the coun-tries most affected by the unplanned flows. It was found that,during the three-year period analysed, Poland experiencedpermanent unplanned flows in the range of 500–1500MWin the opposite direction to those expected from commercial

32 Woszczyk (2013), p. 3333 The CEE region is one of seven regions created for purposes of

transmission planning and European electricity market integration.The CEE region is made up of Austria, Czech Republic, Germany,Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, and is led by Austrianregulatory authority E-Control. See CEPS et al. (2013), p. 2.

34 CEPS, MAVIR, PSE, and SEPS (2013)

transactions and that there was a high correlation betweenthose unplanned flows and realised transactions within theGerman-Austrian bidding zone. The study concluded thatthe solution to the loop flow problemwas the coordination ofall cross border transactions via the introduction of marketcoupling and flow-based capacity allocationmethodology,stressing the need for all significant constraint boundaries tobe included in the process.

The market coupling and flow-based capacity allocationmethodology to be implemented as part of the market inte-gration process is defined by the Capacity Allocation andCongestionManagement (CACM) Code.35 The Code is cur-rently progressing through the Comitology procedure, fol-lowing a recommendation by ACER to adopt the Code.36 TheCode recommends that bidding zones be defined so as to sup-port congestionmanagement andmarket efficiency, and itmight therefore be implied that bidding zones should be de-fined by congestion rather than national boundaries. How-ever, the Code is not explicit on this point and the question ofwhat might constitute the most efficient means of managingcongestion, market splitting or coordinated re-dispatch, isleft open.

As an interimmeasure, PSE, and 50Hertz, signed a “virtualphase shifter” agreement in December 2012 to carry outa trial generation re-dispatch program to investigate thepossibility of managing loop flows in a more coordinated andcost effective fashion, prior to the installation of actual phaseshifting transformers by 2016.

35 ENTSO-E (2012)36 ENTSO-E (2013b)

2 0

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R e a l i s e d s c h e d u l e s , m e a s u r e d l o a d fl o w s a n d u n p l a n n e d fl o w s o n t h e D E - P L b o r d e r F i g u r e 1 0

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

-500

-1,000

MW

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

2010 2012

PL

Unplanned Flow

Realised Schedule

Measured Load Flow

DE

C E P S e t a l . ( 2 0 1 3 )

2 1

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5 . E l e c t r i c i t y m a r k e t

5 . 1 W h o l e s a l e m a r k e t , p r i c e s a n d l i q u i d i t y

5 . 1 . 1 E l e c t r i c i t y m a r k e t d e s i g n

The structure of the Polish wholesale electricity marketfollows the typicalWest-Europeanmodel in that energycan be traded on a bilateral basis using “over the counter”standard contracts, via the PolPX power exchange, and alsoin the balancing market operated by the TSO, PSE Operator.A small portion of electricity is also traded on theWarsawStock Exchange Platform for Trading Electricity (POEE). In2012, trades on the POEE accounted for about 4.7 percent oftotal electricity consumption.

PolPX operate four markets, which together in 2012 ac-counted for over 84.1 percent of total electricity consump-tion in Poland.

P o l i s h e l e c t r i c i t y m a r k e t s ( 2 0 1 2 ) T a b l e 7

M a r k e t V o l u m e t r a d e d

C o m m o d i t y F o r w a r d I n -

s t r u m e n t s M a r k e t w i t h

p h y s i c a l d e l i v e r y ( C F I M )3 7

1 1 2 . 8 7 4 T W h , n e a r l y 7 2 %

o f a l l e l e c t r i c i t y c o n s u m p -

t i o n

D a y - a h e a d m a r k e t 1 9 . 1 0 4 T W h , o v e r 1 2 % o f

a l l e l e c t r i c i t y c o n s u m p -

t i o n

I n t r a - d a y m a r k e t 0 . 0 1 9 T W h

E l e c t r i c i t y a u c t i o n s 1 . 2 6 7 T W h

W o s z c z y k ( 2 0 1 3 )

Energy trading takes place on an unconstrained basis, withnetwork congestionmanaged by redispatch via the balanc-ing market. However, theMinistry of Economy has beeninvestigating the introduction of a nodal pricing model at

37 Forwards derivatives market introduced in 2008

some point in the future, which would effectively include thecosts of resolving congestion in wholesale energy prices.38

Energy trading via the PolPX power exchange has seen sig-nificant growth in recent years at the expense of both bi-lateral and “internal” trading. This growth has been drivenprimarily by the introduction in 2010 of the “exchange obli-gation,” a requirement that electricity generators sell at least15 percent of power generated through a power exchange.Companies entitled to receive funds for covering strandedcosts in connection with the early termination of long-termpower and electricity contracts must offer 100 percent oftheir electricity production on the power exchange.39 Theshare of companies obligated to offer 100 percent of theirelectricity on the power exchange is significant. In 2005,when the European Commission opened an investigationinto the issue of long-term purchase power agreements inPoland, around 40 percent of generation was covered bylong-term agreements.40

W h o l e s a l e e n e r g y t r a d i n g b y m a r k e t ( % ) T a b l e 8

A p p r o x i m a t e p e r c e n t a g e

o f t o t a l e n e r g y t r a d e b y

v o l u m e

2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2

B i l a t e r a l 9 0 + 9 0 3 3 3 0

P o w e r E x c h a n g e 0 . 2 4 5 9 6 2

W o s z c z y k ( 2 0 1 3 ) a n d W o s z c z y k ( 2 0 1 2 )

Figure 11 reflects base and peak prices on the electricity spotmarket for 2012–2013.

38 Sikorski (2011)39 Woszczyk (2013), p. 1240 European Commission (2013c)

2 3

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P o l P X 2 0 1 3 d a y - a h e a d m a r k e t a v e r a g e d a i l y p r i c e s ( E u r / M W h ) F i g u r e 1 1

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

Eu

r / M

Wh

Day

325

337

349

36

1 8

20 32

44

56

68

80

92

104

116

128

140

152

164

176

188

20

0

212

224

236

24

8

26

0

272

28

4

29

6

30

8

320

Spot base

Spot peak

P o l i s h P o w e r E x c h a n g e ( 2 0 1 3 )

5 . 1 . 2 M a r k e t l i q u i d i t y

Wholesale market concentration in Poland remains rela-tively high, with the three largest generating companiesaccounting for some two thirds of production. In 2011, thewholesale market Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)41 wasmeasured at 1,835, on the borderline between a moderately

41 The Herfindal-Hirschman Index (HHI) is defined as the sum of thesquares of the percentage market share of eachmarket participant.The Index can range in value from 0 to 10,000, the higher the indexthe more concentrated the market. Amarket with an HHI of lessthan 1000 is generally considered competitive, a market with anHHI in the range 1000–1800would be considered as moderatelyconcentrated, while a market with an index above 1800would beconsidered highly concentrated.

and highly concentrated market.42 The Energy RegulatoryOffice reported that the HHI index (measured on the basisof energy production) fell slightly in 2012.43 With the (par-tially mandated) transfer of energy trading from the bilateraland over the counter market, liquidity on the PolPX powerexchange has increased significantly in recent years.

42 European Commission (2012)43 Woszczyk (2013)

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

E l e c t r i c i t y c o n s u m p t i o n a n d p r i c e s b y c u s t o m e r s i z e T a b l e 9

C o n s u m e r g r o u p s

b y c o n s u m p -

t i o n v o l u m e

T o t a l n u m b e r

o f c o n s u m e r s

C o n s u m p t i o n

v o l u m e ( M W h )

V a l u e ( P L N4 4

) A v e r a g e p r i c e

( P L N / M W h )

<5 0 M W h 1 6 , 5 7 3 , 9 1 1 4 6 , 9 1 6 , 5 0 4 1 3 , 7 6 5 , 4 3 1 2 9 3 . 4 0

5 0 – 2 0 0 0 M W h 3 8 , 4 7 5 2 8 , 8 7 1 , 0 7 5 7 , 9 3 5 , 7 2 2 2 7 4 . 8 7

>2 0 0 0 M W h 1 , 0 3 1 3 0 , 8 9 3 , 7 4 5 7 , 7 7 9 , 2 9 7 2 5 1 . 8 1

T o t a l 1 6 , 6 1 3 , 4 1 7 1 0 6 , 6 8 1 , 3 2 4 2 9 , 4 8 0 , 4 5 0

W o s z c z y k ( 2 0 1 3 )

5 . 2 T h e r e t a i l m a r k e t

In 2012, there were 16.7 million total consumers in Poland,90 percent of whomwere households. 24 percent of totalelectricity supply went to household consumers.45 Res-idential and other small end-users consuming under 50MWh per year accounted for 44 percent of total consump-tion. Those consuming between 50–2000MWh per yearaccounted for 27 percent of consumption, and large con-sumers (over 2,000MWh per year) accounted for 29 percentof consumption.

Retail market concentration in Poland is high, with the threelargest companies, Tauron, PGE, and Energa, holding a totalmarket share of around 70 percent. The retail market had aHHI of 2000 in 2010.46

Since 2007, all customer classes in Poland have had the rightto switch their supplier. While the number of customersswitching supplier is increasing, the switching rate remainsextremely low (0.86 percent in 2012).47 The switching rate islowest for residential customers, despite significant growthover the past year. It is worth noting that tariffs for residen-

44 PLN is the acronym for the Polish złoty, the national currency ofPoland.

45 Woszczyk (2013)46 European Commission (2013d)47 Woszczyk (2013)

tial customers that have not switched from their “incumbent”supplier continue to be subject to approval by the ERO; there-fore, the majority of residential customers continue to haveregulated rates.48

From January 1, 2014, electricity distributors and retailerswill be required to offer small customers a bundled rate thatincludes the generation and distribution charge on one bill.This is expected to facilitate customer switching by simpli-fying the process for customers.49

Electricity prices for household and industrial consumers inPoland fall within the median range of prices in Europe.50

48 Woszczyk (2013), p. 3049 Energy Regulatory Office (2013b)50 Eurostat (2013f)

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A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

E l e c t r i c i t y p r i c e s ( E u r o / k W h , e x c l u d i n g t a x e s ) F i g u r e 1 2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.1400

0.1200

0.1000

0.0800

0.0600

0.0400

0.0200

0.0000

Eu

r / kW

h

Domestic Industrial

E u r o s t a t ( 2 0 1 3 f )

5 . 3 A l l o c a t i o n o f g r i d c o s t s

Transmission charges are applied on a uniform or “postagestamp”51 basis within Poland and are paid almost entirely byload (versus some EUmember states such as the UKwherepart of the cost of transmission is paid by generators). Inaddition to recovering operational costs, depreciation, andreturn on capital invested, transmission charges cover netbalancing costs, the costs of providing ancillary services,internal congestion costs, and the costs of transmissionlosses.52 Certain non-TSO costs are also included, for ex-ample a transition charge to cover the stranded costs of theearly termination of long-term energy sales contracts. Re-covery is split 57 percent/43 percent in terms of capacityand energy usage respectively.

51 Under “postage stamp” rates, “[e]very transmission customer pays asingle rate for any transmission transaction within a defined region,regardless of the contractual origin and contractual destination ofthe electricity transmitted.” See Hempling (2009).

52 ENTSO-E (2013c)

Customers connecting to the network are responsible forthe costs of the connection but not for grid reinforcement.All wider or shared network costs associated with the con-nection are socialised through transmission charges. For atypical connection, final customers pay 25 percent of thecost of connecting, renewable and co-generation units withan installed capacity of 5MWor less pay 50 percent, andgenerators and distribution companies pay 100 percent.53

53 ENTSO-E (2013c)

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6 . E l e c t r i c i t y b a l a n c i n g / r e s e r v e m a r k e t s

As is the case in the majority ofMember States, the energybalancing arrangements in Poland consist of three main ele-ments: programme responsibility, the single-buyer marketfor balancing energy operated by the TSO followingmarketclosure, and the imbalance settlement process. Balancingmarket participants can either be active (larger generatorsequipped with appropriate control and communication sys-tems) or passive (smaller generators and all loads). All partici-pants are required to submit forecast energy volumes at theday ahead stage, with active participants also offering bal-ancing energy bids and offers at this stage. However, withthe introduction of intra-day trading, energy volumes cannow be adjusted prior to market gate closure, two hours be-fore real time.54 In the case of renewable technologies, suchas wind, forecasts of energy volumes can bemodified up toone hour ahead of real time.

Accepted balancing offers and bids are remunerated on a“pay as bid” basis, while imbalances are settled via a marginal

54 Obersteiner (2008)

dual-price mechanism: participants who are long with re-spect to their declared contractual position are paid at thesystem sell price, and participants who are short are re-quired to buy balancing energy at the system buy price.

There is little opportunity for imbalances to be aggregated,other than for participants connected at the same connec-tion point. This does, however, favour smaller distribution-connected participants.

Primary and secondary reserves (referred to as “second” and“minute” reserves respectively) are procured on an annualbasis via bilateral agreements. Tertiary or hourly reservesare predominately purchased via the day ahead balancingmarket. Remuneration for contracted second andminutereserves is via an enabling payment when the service isactivated and a utilisation payment for energy. The techni-cal requirements of second, minute and tertiary or hourlyreserve are given in Table 10.

R e s e r v e r e q u i r e m e n t s T a b l e 1 0

P r i m a r y o r s e c o n d r e s e r v e S e c o n d a r y o r m i n u t e r e s e r v e T e r t i a r y o r h o u r l y r e s e r v e

D e l i v e r e d a u t o m a t i c a l l y v i a g o v e r n o r

r e s p o n s e / l o a d f r e q u e n c y c o n t r o l ( L F C ) i n

o r d e r t o c o n t a i n f r e q u e n c y d e v i a t i o n s w i t h i n

p r e s c r i b e d l i m i t s .

A l l g e n e r a t o r s w i t h “ r o t a t i n g m a s s e s ” a n d a

c a p a c i t y i n e x c e s s o f 5 M W a r e r e q u i r e d t o

r e s e r v e 1 p e r c e n t o f t h a t c a p a c i t y f o r u s e a s

P C R .

T h e s e r v i c e , w h i c h n e e d s t o b e f u l l y d e l i v e r e d

w i t h i n 3 0 s e c o n d s a n d m a i n t a i n e d f o r u p t o 5

m i n u t e s , i s n o t r e m u n e r a t e d .

A n a u t o m a t i c a l l y c a l l e d s e r v i c e

w h i c h i s t o b e f u l l y d e p l o y e d o v e r

t h e p e r i o d 3 0 s e c t o 1 5 m i n u t e s .

T h e s e r v i c e i s u s e d t o r e p l a c e

p r i m a r y o r s e c o n d r e s e r v e a n d

r e s t o r e f r e q u e n c y t o i t s n o m i n a l

l e v e l .

A m a n u a l l y d i s p a t c h e d

r e s e r v e p r o d u c t , w h i c h

n e e d s t o b e f u l l y d e p l o y e d

o v e r t h e p e r i o d 1 5 m i n -

u t e s t o 1 h o u r i n t h e c a s e

o f s p i n n i n g r e s e r v e s a n d

4 t o 8 h o u r s i n t h e c a s e o f

p l a n t a t s t a n d s t i l l .

P o l i s h P o w e r G r i d C o m p a n y , S A ( 2 0 0 1 )

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7 . L o n g - t e r m e n e r g y p o l i c y / d e c a r b o n i s a t i o n

The EU has set the goal of reducing GHG emission 20 percentbelow 1990 levels by 2020. This target is divided betweensectors covered under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS) – covering about 45 percent of total GHG emissions– and the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD), which sets targetsfor all remaining economic sectors. Under the ETS Directivethere are no country-level targets; however, Poland is partof the EU-wide cap requiring covered sectors in the EU tocut greenhouse gas emissions 21 percent below 2005 levelsby 2020. The ESD caps Poland’s GHG emissions in non-ETSsectors at 14 percent over 2005 levels by 2020.

Themain policy document laying out Poland’s long-termenergy policy, including the strategy for decarbonising thepower sector, is the Polish Energy Policy to 2030 and theaccompanying Energy and Fuel Demand Forecast to 2030(updated September, 2011). The Polish Energy Policy to 2030sets six leading priorities for development of the energysector to 2030:

→ Improving energy efficiency→ Increasing energy security→ Developing nuclear power→ Increasing the share of renewable resources, including

biofuels→ Developing competitive energy and fuel markets→ Limiting the effect of the power sector on the environ-

ment.55

The document does not set specific targets for carbon emis-sions, energy efficiency, or renewable energy (though Polandis pursuing targets and policies pursuant to related Europeandirectives, discussed in more detail below). Rather, it indi-cates a general pathway to decarbonisation. As mentionedearlier, Poland is expected to face significant capacity re-tirements between now and 2030. The Polish Energy Policy

55 Ministry of Economy (2009), p. 4–5

anticipates a concurrent increase in demand between 2008and 2030. In order to meet this shortfall while maintain-ing a low-carbon trajectory, the Energy Strategy envisionsthat demandwill be met with a combination of fuel diver-sification (particularly development of nuclear power andrenewables) and exploitation of new lignite mines. CCS playsa central role in decarbonising the power sector, which con-tinues to rely on coal and lignite for a significant portion ofsupply. The updated projections for fuel and energy demandto 2030 forecast a reduction of GHGs in electricity produc-tion from 144.2 million tons CO2 in 2008 to 84.2 million tonsof CO2 in 2030 – a 42 percent reduction.56

In addition to the Energy Strategy 2030, theMinistry ofEconomy has commissioned several analyses of low-carbonpathways for Poland. Moreover, twoworking groups – theNational Program for Developing a Low-Emissions Economyand the Public Council for Development of a Low-EmissionsEconomy – are helping to develop low-emissions strategiesfor Poland.57

56 Ministry of Economy (2011), p. 4857 More on these work streams is available on theMinistry of

Economy’s website http://www.mg.gov.pl/Bezpieczenstwo+gospodarcze/Gospodarka+niskoemisyjna.

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8 . R e n e w a b l e e n e r g y

Under the Renewable Energy Directive, Poland is expectedto increase the share of energy from renewable energysources to 15 percent of gross final consumption by 2020.In 2012, renewables accounted for nearly 4 percent of totalelectricity production and 13 percent of installed electriccapacity (including large hydro).58

Poland has in place a green certificate scheme, which wasfirst introduced in 2005. The scheme establishes annual re-newable energy targets that obligated entities must meet byretiring green certificates. Certificates are tradable. Renew-able energy includes renewable electricity or heat generatedthrough hydroelectric power, wind, biomass, biogas, solarphotovoltaic and heat, and geothermal energy.59

The obligation applies to:

→ electricity retailers who are also power producers ortraders,

→ large industrial end-users who consumed not less than100 GWh of electricity in the previous calendar year andfor whom electricity accounted for no less than 3 percentof production cost, and

→ brokerage firms and end-users transacting on the PolishPower Exchange.

Targets are set as a percentage of total annual sales. For2012–2021, the targets are shown in Table 11.

Obligated parties can also pay an alternative compliance feeto make up for any shortfall in meeting the target.

Prices for green certificates plummeted in late 2012/ early2013, due to an oversupply of green certificates. The over-supply was caused by a combination of production exceedthe annual renewable obligation and certificates from previ-

58 PSE (2013)59 Ministry of Economy (2012)

R e n e w a b l e e l e c t r i c i t y t a r g e t s T a b l e 1 1

T a r g e t Y e a r

1 0 . 4 % 2 0 1 2

1 2 . 0 % 2 0 1 3

1 3 . 0 % 2 0 1 4

1 4 . 0 % 2 0 1 5

1 5 . 0 % 2 0 1 6

1 6 . 0 % 2 0 1 7

1 7 . 0 % 2 0 1 8

1 8 . 0 % 2 0 1 9

1 9 . 0 % 2 0 2 0

2 0 . 0 % 2 0 2 1

M i n i s t r y o f E c o n o m y ( 2 0 1 2 )

ous years that had been banked. In 2012, co-firing produced5.8 TWh of energy, while wind power produced 4.5 TWh ofenergy (out of a total of 13.9 TWh).60 In 2013, the share ofwind increased significantly.

Due to the price volatility of green certificates, the desireto diversify sources of renewable energy, and the need tofully transpose the European Renewable Energy Directive,Poland is considering an entirely new incentive scheme forrenewables. Under discussion is a departure from the greencertificate scheme and transition to a reverse auction forrenewable energy.61

Recent changes to the Polish Energy Law have introducedsome changes to the law governing renewable energy inPoland. The amendments introduce a system for guaranteesof origin, a framework for setting a national renewable en-ergy target for 2020, as well as intermediate targets, and a

60 Zaremba (2013)61 Krasuski (2013)

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framework for preparing a national renewable energy ac-tion plan. As noted previously, the Polish Energy Law hasnot brought Poland into full compliance with the EuropeanRenewable Energy Directive, and work on transposing theDirective continues.

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9 . E n e r g y e ffi c i e n c y

Poland has a national, economy-wide target of achieving a9 percent reduction in final annual energy use by 2016, ascompared to Poland’s average energy use from 2001 to 2005.The central compliance mechanism tomeet this target is anenergy supplier obligation, combinedwith a tradable whitecertificate scheme.

The energy efficiency obligation covers suppliers of elec-tricity, natural gas, and district heating, as well as brokeragefirms and end-users transacting on the Polish Power Ex-change. Annual targets are set by theMinistry of Economy.Obligated entities comply with the obligation by retiringwhite certificates in the amount corresponding with theirtarget. They can also pay an alternative compliance fee tocover any shortfall. Money from the alternative compliancefee is paid into the National Fund For Environmental Protec-tion andWaterManagement.

The first tender for white certificates was issued in January2013. Only 3.76 percent of the expected value (in tonnes ofoil equivalent) of white certificates expected to be issued inthe first tender were issued.62 The Regulator had to denyhalf of the applications due to trivial errors, such as account-ing errors. Another tender is being organised before the endof the year.

62 Energy Regulatory Office (2013c)

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1 0 . G r i d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e a n d r e l i a b i l i t y

1 0 . 1 G e n e r a t i o n a d e q u a c y s t a n d a r d

While the ERO considers that sufficient domestic capacitycurrently exists to meet peak demand, there is a significantconcern over potential capacity shortages starting in 2016.The shortages are anticipated as a result of the planned de-commissioning of 4.4 GW of capacity between 2014 and2017, in part due to deferred implementation of the LargeCombustion Plant Directive and a delay in commission-ing new capacity to meet the shortfall. Poland has an agingpower fleet – nearly 55 percent of the country’s installedcapacity is over 30 years old – and there are plans to decom-mission 12.26 GW of generation capacity by 2030.63

Responsibility for security of supply in Poland lies withtheMinister of the Economy. Following theMinister’s di-rection, the ERO has the competence to organise tendersfor new capacity should the need arise and to implementinitiatives aimed at reducing the demand for electricity. Be-fore announcing such a tender, the President of EROmustagree with the minister in charge of public finance and otherrelevant public authorities on the types of economic andfinancial instruments enabling the construction of new gen-eration capacity or the delivery on preferential terms ofinitiatives leading to the reduction of electricity demand.64

To date, the need to tender for new generation capacity hasnot arisen. However, recently work has begun to developa capacity market in Poland. In order to support capacitymargins in the period before a capacity market would be inplace, an operational reserve mechanismmay be introducedto prevent otherwise unprofitable generation capacity fromdecommissioning.65

63 Easton (2013)64 SeeWoszczyk (2013) and CEER (2013)65 Strzelecki &Martewicz (2013)

1 0 . 2 C u r r e n t S A I D I

Although there is limited historic data available for Poland,the number of supply minutes lost by consumers due to un-planned transmission and distribution outages is high com-pared withmany other EuropeanMember States. A likelycontributing factor is the relatively low ratio of undergroundcable (as opposed to overhead lines) to total circuit km in thePolish low- andmedium- voltage distribution networks.There is a clear correlation between the use of overhead linesand increased SAIDI. Comparing Poland and Germany as anexample, Polish SAIDI is some eight times higher than theaverage for Germany. The ratio of underground cable to totalcircuit km for the Polish low-voltage andmedium-voltage

S A I D I – u n p l a n n e d i n t e r r u p t i o n s , e x -

c l u d i n g e x c e p t i o n a l e v e n t s F i g u r e 1 3

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Min

ute

s Lo

st

Germany Austria GB

Netherlands France Poland

Denmark

C E E R ( 2 0 1 2 )

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distribution systems is 0.32 and 0.22, respectively, com-pared with figures of 0.87 and 0.75 for Germany.

A comparison of average Polish SAIDI with other EuropeanMember States is given in Figure 13.

1 0 . 3 S m a r t m e t e r i n g

A number of smart metering pilot projects are underwayin Poland; however, currently there is no national roll-outplan. Several of the large power companies, including Energa,Enea, and Tauron are beginning large-scale installation ofsmart meters. Energa alone plans to install 400,000 smartmeters by the end of 2014. The Regulator has prepared aconceptual market model for smart metering in Poland andis working with the government and stakeholders on de-veloping a smart metering plan for the country. The Polishgovernment has not undertaken a cost-benefit analysis ofsmart metering, though there are industry analyses.66

66 See CEER (2013)

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R e f e r e n c e s

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2013). http://www.bnef.com.

CEER (2013). Status Review of Regulatory Aspects of SmartMetering (including an assessment of roll-out as of 1 Jan-uary 2013). Retrieved from http://www.energy-regulators.eu/portal/page/portal/EER_HOME/EER_PUBLICATIONS/CEER_PAPERS/Customers/2013/7-1_C13-RMF-54-05-Status_Review_of_Regulatory_Aspects_of_Smart_Metering_FOR_PUBLICATION.pdf.

CEER (2012). 5th CEER Benchmarking Report on the Qual-ity of Electricity Supply. Brussels: Author. Retrieved fromhttp://www.energy-regulators.eu/portal/page/portal/EER_HOME/CEER_5thBenchmarking_Report.pdf.

CEPS (2013). Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romaniaand Poland signed theMemorandum of Understanding aim-ing to extend the CZ SKHUMarket Coupling towards RO andPLmarkets [press release]. Retrieved from http://www.ceps.cz/ENG/Media/Tiskove-zpravy/Pages/RozsirMC.aspx.

CEPS, MAVIR, PSE, and SEPS (2013). Unplanned Flows inthe CEE Region. Warsaw: Authors. Retrieved from http://www.pse.pl/uploads/pliki/Unplanned_flows_in_the_CEE_region.pdf.

Easton, A. (2013). Poland faces serious risk of power deficitin 2016-17 –ministry. Retrieved from http://www.platts.com/latest-news/electric-power/warsaw/poland-faces-serious-risk-of-power-deficit-in-26157950.

Enea (2013a). Informacje o Spółce (Information on EneaCapital Group). Retrieved from http://www.firma.enea.pl/serwis-korporacyjny/o-enea-169.html.

Enea (2013b). Shareholder Structure. Retrieved from http://www.ir.enea.pl/en/information_on_shares_and_the_shareholding/shareholding_structure/.

Energa (2013). Strategia i model biznesowy Grupy En-erga (Strategy and business model for Energa). Retrievedfrom http://grupa.energa.pl/upload/wysiwyg/Grupa%20ENERGA/Strategia%20i%20model%20biznesowy%20Grupy%20Energa.pdf.

Energy Regulatory Office (2013a), InteractiveMap ofInstalled Renewable Energy Capacity. Retrieved fromhttp://www.ure.gov.pl/uremapoze/mapa.html. (Note thatsolar PV amounts to only 1.75MWof installed capacity.)

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ENTSO-E (2012). Capacity Allocation and CongestionMan-agement (CACM) Code. Brussels: Author. Retrieved fromhttps://www.entsoe.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/_library/resources/CACM/120927_CACM_Network_Code_FINAL.pdf.

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European Commission (2011). EnergyMarkets in the Euro-

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Hempling, Scott (2009). Postage Stamp Transmission Pric-ing: The Seventh Circuit Reverses FERC.Washington, D.C.:

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

NRRI. Retrieved from http://www.narucmeetings.org/Presentations/nrri%20postage%20stamp%20coursebook%20hempling%20sept%2009.pdf.

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Zaremba, Marcin (2013). UREwydał do końcamaja 1943GWh zielonych certyfikatów za 2013 rok (The ERO issued1943 GWh of green certificates through the end ofMayfor 2013). Retrieved from http://www.reo.pl/ure-wydal-do-konca-maja-1943-gwh-zielonych-certyfikatow-za-2013-rok.

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P u b l i c a t i o n s b y A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e

I N G E R M A N

1 2 T h e s e n z u r E n e r g i e w e n d e

Ein Diskussionsbeitrag zu den wichtigsten Herausforderungen im Strommarkt (Lang­ und Kurzfassung)

B r a u c h e n w i r e i n e n K a p a z i t ä t s m a r k t ?

Dokumentation der Stellungnahmen der Referenten der Diskussionsveranstaltung am 24. August 2012 in Berlin

D i e Z u k u n f t d e s E E G – E v o l u t i o n o d e r S y s t e m w e c h s e l ?

Dokumentation der Stellungnahmen der Referenten der Diskussionsveranstaltung am 13. Februar 2013 in Berlin

E i n r a d i k a l v e r e i n f a c h t e s E E G 2 . 0 u n d e i n u m f a s s e n d e r M a r k t d e s i g n - P r o z e s s

Konzept für ein zweistufiges Verfahren 2014–2017

E i n r o b u s t e s S t r o m n e t z f ü r d i e Z u k u n f t

Methodenvorschlag zur Planung – Kurzfassung einer Studie von BET Aachen

E n t w i c k l u n g d e r W i n d e n e r g i e i n D e u t s c h l a n d

Eine Beschreibung von aktuellen und zukünftigen Trends und Charakteristika der Einspeisung vonWindenergieanlagen

E r n e u e r b a r e E n e r g i e n u n d S t r o m n a c h f r a g e i m J a h r 2 0 2 2

Illustration der anstehenden Herausforderungen der Energiewende in Deutschland. Analyse auf Basis von Berechnungenvon Fraunhofer IWES

K a p a z i t ä t s m a r k t o d e r S t r a t e g i s c h e R e s e r v e : W a s i s t d e r n ä c h s t e S c h r i t t ?

Eine Übersicht über die in der Diskussion befindlichenModelle zur Gewährleistung der Versorgungssicherheit in Deutsch-land

K o s t e n o p t i m a l e r A u s b a u d e r E r n e u e r b a r e n E n e r g i e n i n D e u t s c h l a n d

Ein Vergleich möglicher Strategien für den Ausbau vonWind­ und Solarenergie in Deutschland bis 2033

L a s t m a n a g e m e n t a l s B e i t r a g z u r D e c k u n g d e s S p i t z e n l a s t b e d a r f s i n S ü d d e u t s c h l a n d

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K r i t i s c h e W ü r d i g u n g d e s N e t z e n t w i c k l u n g s p l a n e s 2 0 1 2

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Gutachten vorgelegt von Raue LLP

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S t e i g e n d e E E G - U m l a g e : U n e r w ü n s c h t e V e r t e i l u n g s e ff e k t e k ö n n e n v e r m i n d e r t w e r d e n

Analyse des Deutschen Instituts fürWirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

S t r o m m a r k t d e s i g n i m V e r g l e i c h : A u s g e s t a l t u n g s o p t i o n e n e i n e s K a p a z i t ä t s m a r k t s

Dokumentation der Stellungnahmen der Referenten für die Diskussionsveranstaltung am 10. Juni 2013 in Berlin

W i e w i r d s i c h d i e W i n d e n e r g i e i n D e u t s c h l a n d w e i t e r e n t w i c k e l n ?

Dokumentation der Diskussion zur Kurzstudie Entwicklung derWindenergie in Deutschland am 5. Juli 2013

Z u s a m m e n h a n g v o n S t r o m b ö r s e n u n d E n d k u n d e n p r e i s e n

Studie von Energy Brainpool

I N E N G L I S H

1 2 I n s i g h t s o n G e r m a n y ’ s E n e r g i e w e n d e

ADiscussion Paper Exploring Key Challenges for the Power Sector

C o s t O p t i m a l E x p a n s i o n o f R e n e w a b l e s i n G e r m a n y

A comparison of strategies for expanding wind and solar power in Germany

L o a d M a n a g e m e n t a s a W a y o f C o v e r i n g P e a k D e m a n d i n S o u t h e r n G e r m a n y

Summary of intermediate findings from a study conducted by Fraunhofer ISI and Forschungsgesellschaft für En-ergiewirtschaft

All publications are available on our website: www.agora-energiewende.org

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C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E | R e p o r t o n t h e P o l i s h p o w e r s y s t e m

0 2 9 / 0 2 - C P - 2 0 1 4 / E N

H o w d o w e a c c o m p l i s h t h e E n -

e r g i e w e n d e ?

W h i c h l e g i s l a t i o n , i n i t i a t i v e s , a n d

m e a s u r e s d o w e n e e d t o m a k e i t

a s u c c e s s ? A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e

h e l p s t o p r e p a r e t h e g r o u n d t o e n -

s u r e t h a t G e r m a n y s e t s t h e c o u r s e

t o w a r d s a f u l l y d e c a r b o n i s e d p o w e r

s e c t o r . A s a t h i n k - & - d o - t a n k , w e

w o r k w i t h k e y s t a k e h o l d e r s t o e n -

h a n c e t h e k n o w l e d g e b a s i s a n d f a -

c i l i t a t e c o n v e r g e n c e o f v i e w s .

A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e

R o s e n s t r a ß e 2 | 1 0 1 7 8 B e r l i n | G e r m a n y

T + 4 9 . ( 0 ) 3 0 . 2 8 4 4 9 0 1 - 0 0

F + 4 9 . ( 0 ) 3 0 . 2 8 4 4 9 0 1 - 2 9

w w w . a g o r a - e n e r g i e w e n d e . o r g

i n f o @ a g o r a - e n e r g i e w e n d e . d e

A g o r a E n e r g i e w e n d e i s a j o i n t i n i t i a t i v e o f t h e M e r c a t o r F o u n d a t i o n a n d t h e E u r o p e a n C l i m a t e F o u n d a t i o n .


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