ANALISENSIBANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDADSISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLEVariacion PorcentualINVERSIONOPERACION Y MANTENIMIENTOALTERNATIVA 01ALTERNATIVA 01VANSTIRVANSTIRVANSTIRVANSTIR10000.0000.006000.0000.003000.0000.002000.0000.001000.0000.00000.0000.00-1000.0000.00-2000.0000.00-3084.280.0084.280.00LINEA DE CORTEPPPSAMPLIACION DE SERVICIO DE AGUA POTABLE (COSTO TOTAL)24530273.52,595,6532,050,565INVERSOIN A RELIZAR00OKANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDADSISTEMA DE SANEAMIENTOVariacion PorcentualEn la inversionEn la inversionALTERNATIVA 1ALTERNATIVA 2C/EINVERSIONL.CORTEC/EINVERSIONL.CORTELC6000195000195020001,950001,95010001,950001,9500001,950001,950-10001,950001,950-20001,950001,950LINEA DE CORTEPPPSAMPLIACION DEL SERVICIO DE ALCANTARILLADO COSTO TOTAL2333,0273.52,468,5191,950,130INVERSION A REALIZAR00OK

ANALISENSIB11

ALTER 01LINEA DE CORTEVARIACIONICEINVERSION

SELECCION11

ALTER 01LINEA DE CORTEVARIACIONICEOPER Y MANTENIMIENTO

CRONOG

% VAR INVERSION% VARIACIONT I R% VAN INVERSION

POB Y O&M

% VAR INVERSION% VARIACIONVANS

VAC ALC

17.5%INVERSION A PSL CORTE% DE VARINVERSION A PSALTERNATIVA 01

VAC PTAR1

INV A PS.L.CORTE% DE VARINVERSION PSALTERNATIVA 2

VAC PTAR2INDICADORESALTERNATIVA 01ALTERNATIVA 02PPPSPPPSINVERSION0.000.000.000.00Agua potable0.000.000.000.00Sistema de Saneamiento0.000.000.000.00Red de alcantarillado0.000.000.000.00Planta de tratamiento0.000.000.000.00EVALUACIONAgua potable (alt unica)VAN00TIR0.00%0.00%SaneamientoC/EVACICEVACICERed de alcantarillado00.0000.00Planta de tratamiento00.0000.00TOTAL00.0000.00SENSIBILIDADNO SENSIBLENO SENSIBLESOSTENIBILIDADSOSTENIBLESOSTENIBLEIMPACTO AMBIENTALNO GENERANO GENERAANALISIS DE RIESGONO EXISTENO EXISTE

20%65%65%

VAN Y TIRCRONOGRAMA DE DESEMBOLSOSCODGDESCRIPCIONCOSTO/DIRCOSTO/TOTAL1R MES2D MES3R MES4R MES5T MES6TO MES1.00Sistema de Agua Potable107,999.59155,187.311.02Sedimentador7,565.6910,871.335,435.665,435.661.04Reservorio28,576.9241,062.8941,062.891.05Filtro Lento62,332.7589,567.4944,783.7444,783.741.09Mitigacion ambiental6,024.238,656.378,656.371.10Capacitacion3,500.005,029.245,029.242.00Saneamiento172,236.31364,994.302.01Red de alcantarillado80,165.10169,881.7442,470.4442,470.4442,470.4442,470.442.02Planta de tratamiento (Tanque Imhof)92,071.21195,112.5697,556.2897,556.28TOTAL520,181.615,435.6692,689.84128,317.0742,470.44140,026.71111,241.88520,181.61AVANCE %100.001.0417.8224.678.1626.9221.39CRONOGRAMA DE METASCODGDESCRIPCIONUNDTOTAL1R MES2DO MES3R MES4TO MES5TO MES6TO MES1.00Sistema de Agua Potable1.02SedimentadorUND1.000.500.501.03ReservorioUNID1.001.001.04Filtro LentoUND1.000.500.501.09Mitigacion AmbientalPAQ1.001.001.10CapacitacionPAQ1.001.002.00Saneamiento2.01Red de alcantarilladoML3,129.50782.38782.38782.38782.382.02Planta de Tratamiento (Tanque Imhof)UND1.000.500.50

VAC LETtasa1.50%DENSIDADPOBLACIONAGUAAGUAACANTARILLADOINCREMENTALES OyM -AGUAINCREMENTALES OyM -ALCANTARILLADOINCREMENTALES OyM -PTAR 1 ALTERINCREMENTALES OyM -PTAR 2 ALTAOCantupataChichucanchaPachipatapob totalCantupataChichucanchaPachipataVIVpob totalVIVCantupataChichucanchaPachipataTOTALCantupataChichucanchaPachipataTOTAL2007610358219118720130665390239126435511223.5620141675396242128536111412758.974910.865325.6920152685402246130736711602766.174910.865325.6920163695408249132837311792773.374910.865325.6920174705414253134937911972780.144910.865325.6920185715419257137038512162786.924910.865325.6920196725425260139239112362794.124910.865325.6920207735431264141339712542801.324910.865325.6920218745437267143440312732808.094910.865325.6920229755443271145640912922815.294910.865325.69202310765449275147741513112822.494910.865325.69202411775455278149842113302829.274910.865325.69202512785460282152042713492836.474910.865325.69202613795466285154143313682843.244910.865325.69202714805472289156243913872850.444910.865325.69202815815478292158344514052857.224910.865325.69202916825484296160545114252864.424910.865325.69203017835490300162645714432871.194910.865325.69203118845496303164746314622878.394910.865325.69203219855501307166946914822885.594910.865325.69203320865507310169047515002892.374910.865325.69AoN de familias conectadas al servicioantiguasnuevas050.00305150.00311250.00317350.00323450.00329550.00335650.00341750.00347850.00353950.003591050.003651150.003711250.003771350.003831450.003891550.003951650.004011750.004071850.004131950.004192050.00425

tasa de descuento9%INVERSION DE ALCANTARILLADOponer la poblacion dell servicio de alcantarilladoAoInversion Total (S/.)Incrementales de O&M (S/.)Total Costos (S/.)Poblacion Beneficiaria IncrementadaPoblacion Beneficiada TOTALMETODOLOGIA COSTO - EFECTIVIDAD-ALCANTARILLADOCD1,166,702.0301,365,041.381,365,041.381,122CI198,339.3510.000.00191,141MONTO1,365,041.3820.000.00191,16030.000.00191,17940.000.00181,19750.000.00191,21660.000.00201,23670.000.00181,25480.000.00191,27390.000.00191,292100.000.00191,311110.000.00191,330120.000.00191,349130.000.00191,368140.000.00191,387150.000.00181,405160.000.00201,425170.000.00181,443180.000.00191,462190.000.00201,482200.000.00181,500VAC social (S/.)1,365,041.38Prom. Poblacion Beneficiada (hab.)1,311Costo Efectividad (S/./hab.)1,041.22EVALUCION DE LINEA DE CORTEIncremento de costos de Inversiondisminucion de la poblacion beneficiadaIncrementoINVERSION (S/.)VAC (S/.)Poblacion BeneficiadaCosto per Capita (S/.)disminucionPoblacion BeneficiadaINVERSION (S/.)VAC (S/.)Costo per Capita (S/.)0%1,365,041.381,365,041.381,3111041.220%1,3111,365,0411,365,041.381041.222%1,392,342.201,392,342.201,3111062.05-2%1,2851,365,0411,365,041.381062.474%1,419,643.031,419,643.031,3111082.87-4%1,2591,365,0411,365,041.381084.616%1,446,943.861,446,943.861,3111103.69-6%1,2321,365,0411,365,041.381107.688%1,474,244.691,474,244.691,3111124.52-8%1,2061,365,0411,365,041.381131.7610%1,501,545.511,501,545.511,3111145.34-10%1,1801,365,0411,365,041.381156.9101145.3401145.3401145.3401145.3401145.3401145.34

Costo per CapitaLinea de CorteIncremento% de increnmentoCosto per capita (S/./hab.)

tasa de descuento9%AoInversion Total (S/.)Incrementales de O&M (S/.)Total Costos (S/.)Poblacion Beneficiaria IncrementadaPoblacion Beneficiada TOTALMETODOLOGIA COSTO - EFECTIVIDAD- PTARCD1,757,599.7302,056,391.682,056,391.681,122CI298,791.9514,910.864,910.86191,141MONTO2,056,391.6824,910.864,910.86191,16034,910.864,910.86191,17944,910.864,910.86181,19754,910.864,910.86191,21664,910.864,910.86201,23674,910.864,910.86181,25484,910.864,910.86191,27394,910.864,910.86191,292104,910.864,910.86191,311114,910.864,910.86191,330124,910.864,910.86191,349134,910.864,910.86191,368144,910.864,910.86191,387154,910.864,910.86181,405164,910.864,910.86201,425174,910.864,910.86181,443184,910.864,910.86191,462194,910.864,910.86201,482204,910.864,910.86181,500VAC social (S/.)2,101,220.69Prom. Poblacion Beneficiada (hab.)1,311Costo Efectividad (S/./hab.)1,602.76EVALUCION DE LINEA DE CORTEIncremento de costos de Inversiondisminucion de la poblacion beneficiadaIncrementoINVERSION (S/.)VAC (S/.)Poblacion BeneficiadaCosto per Capita (S/.)disminucionPoblacion BeneficiadaINVERSION (S/.)VAC (S/.)Costo per Capita (S/.)0.0%2,056,391.682,101,220.691,3111568.570.0%1,3112,056,3922,101,220.691602.7610.0%2,262,030.852,306,859.861,3111725.42-5.0%1,2452,056,3922,101,220.691687.1215.0%2,364,850.442,409,679.451,3111803.85-10.0%1,1802,056,3922,101,220.691780.8520.0%2,467,670.022,512,499.031,3111882.28-15.0%1,1142,056,3922,101,220.691885.6027.5%2,621,899.402,666,728.411,3111999.92-19.8%1,0512,056,3922,101,220.691998.4630.0%2,673,309.192,718,138.201,3112039.14-25.0%9832,056,3922,101,220.692137.0201311.0001311.0001311.0001311.0001311.0001311.00

Costo per CapitaLinea de CorteIncrementoANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

tasa de descuento9%AoInversion Total (S/.)Incrementales de O&M (S/.)Total Costos (S/.)Poblacion Beneficiaria IncrementadaPoblacion Beneficiada TOTALMETODOLOGIA COSTO - EFECTIVIDAD- PTARCD1,798,620.1502,104,385.582,104,385.581,122CI305,765.4315,325.695,325.69191,141MONTO2,104,385.5825,325.695,325.69191,16035,325.695,325.69191,17945,325.695,325.69181,19755,325.695,325.69191,21665,325.695,325.69201,23675,325.695,325.69181,25485,325.695,325.69191,27395,325.695,325.69191,292105,325.695,325.69191,311115,325.695,325.69191,330125,325.695,325.69191,349135,325.695,325.69191,368145,325.695,325.69191,387155,325.695,325.69181,405165,325.695,325.69201,425175,325.695,325.69181,443185,325.695,325.69191,462195,325.695,325.69201,482205,325.695,325.69181,500VAC social (S/.)2,153,001.38Prom. Poblacion Beneficiada (hab.)1,311Costo Efectividad (S/./hab.)1,642.26EVALUCION DE LINEA DE CORTEIncremento de costos de Inversiondisminucion de la poblacion beneficiadaIncrementoINVERSION (S/.)VAC (S/.)Poblacion BeneficiadaCosto per Capita (S/.)disminucionPoblacion BeneficiadaINVERSION (S/.)VAC (S/.)Costo per Capita (S/.)0.0%2,104,385.582,153,001.381,3111605.180.0%1,3112,104,3862,153,001.381642.2610.0%2,314,824.142,363,439.941,3111765.69-5.0%1,2452,104,3862,153,001.381728.6915.0%2,420,043.412,468,659.221,3111845.95-10.0%1,1802,104,3862,153,001.381824.7320.0%2,525,262.692,573,878.501,3111926.21-15.0%1,1142,104,3862,153,001.381932.0724.5%2,619,960.042,668,575.851,3111998.44-17.9%1,0762,104,3862,153,001.382000.3230.0%2,735,701.252,784,317.051,3112086.73-25.0%9832,104,3862,153,001.382189.6801311.0001311.0001311.0001311.0001311.0001311.00

131113110131113110131113110131113110131113110131113110

Costo per CapitaLinea de CorteIncrementoANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

Beneficios de u. antiguos (S/./ao)41.26Tasa de descuento9%Beneficios de u .nuevos (S/./ao)702.50AoPoblacion Beneficiada TOTALN de familias conectadas al servicioBeneficios brutos S/./aoBeneficios brutos(S/.)Inversion Total (S/.)Incrementales de O&M (S/.)Flujos netos (S/.)METODOLOGIA COSTO - BENEFICIO -AGUA POTABLEPRECIOS SOCIALEantiguasnuevasantiguasnuevasCD1,806,035.8901,264503052,113,061.99-2,113,061.99CI307,026.1011,285503112,063.00218,477.50220,540.502,758.97217,781.53MONTO2,113,061.9921,307503172,063.00222,692.50224,755.502,766.17221,989.3331,328503232,063.00226,907.50228,970.502,773.37226,197.1341,349503292,063.00231,122.50233,185.502,780.14230,405.3651,370503352,063.00235,337.50237,400.502,786.92234,613.5861,392503412,063.00239,552.50241,615.502,794.12238,821.3871,413503472,063.00243,767.50245,830.502,801.32243,029.1881,434503532,063.00247,982.50250,045.502,808.09247,237.4191,456503592,063.00252,197.50254,260.502,815.29251,445.21101,477503652,063.00256,412.50258,475.502,822.49255,653.01111,498503712,063.00260,627.50262,690.502,829.27259,861.23121,520503772,063.00264,842.50266,905.502,836.47264,069.03131,541503832,063.00269,057.50271,120.502,843.24268,277.26141,562503892,063.00273,272.50275,335.502,850.44272,485.06151,583503952,063.00277,487.50279,550.502,857.22276,693.28161,605504012,063.00281,702.50283,765.502,864.42280,901.08171,626504072,063.00285,917.50287,980.502,871.19285,109.31181,647504132,063.00290,132.50292,195.502,878.39289,317.11191,669504192,063.00294,347.50296,410.502,885.59293,524.91201,690504252,063.00298,562.50300,625.502,892.37297,733.13VAN social (S/.)134,921.87TIR social9.8%Incremento de costos de InversionDisminucion de los beneficiosIncremento de los costos de O&MIncrementoINVERSION (S/.)VAN (S/.)TIRdisminucionINVERSION (S/.)VAN (S/.)TIRIncrementoINVERSION (S/.)VAN (S/.)TIR0.0%2,113,061.99134,921.879.83%0.0%2,113,061.99134,921.879.83%0.0%2,113,061.99134,921.879.83%2.0%2,155,323.2392,660.639.56%-2.0%2,113,061.9989,449.799.55%20.0%2,113,061.99129,797.849.80%4.0%2,197,584.4750,399.399.30%-4.0%2,113,061.9943,977.719.27%40.0%2,113,061.99124,673.829.77%6.4%2,248,297.96-314.109.00%-5.9%2,113,061.99779.239.00%60.0%2,113,061.99119,549.809.74%8.0%2,282,106.95-34,123.098.80%-8.0%2,113,061.99-46,966.458.71%80.0%2,113,061.99109,301.759.67%10.0%2,324,368.19-76,384.338.56%-10.0%2,113,061.99-92,438.538.42%100.0%2,113,061.9994,291.929.67%ECENARIOS DE CAMBIO AUMENTO DE INVERSIONECENARIOS DE CAMBIO disminucion de beneficioECENARIOS DE CAMBIO INCREMENTO DE O&MbenflujobenflujobenflujobenflujobenflujobenflujoO&MflujoO&MflujoO&MflujoO&MflujoO&MflujoO&Mflujo-2,113,061.99-2,155,323.23-2,197,584.47-2,248,297.96-2,282,106.95-2,324,368.19-2,113,061.99-2,113,061.99-2,113,061.99-2,113,061.99-2,113,061.99-2,113,061.99-2,113,062.0-2,113,062.0-2,113,062.0-2,113,062.0-2,113,062.0-2,113,062.0217,781.53217,781.53217,781.53217,781.53217,781.53217,781.53220540.5217,781.53216129.69213,370.72211718.88208,959.91207528.6105204,769.64202897.26200,138.29198486.45195,727.482758.9665217,781.533310.7598217,229.743862.5531216,677.954414.3464216,126.155517.933215,022.575517.933215,022.57221,989.33221,989.33221,989.33221,989.33221,989.33221,989.33224755.5221,989.33220260.39217,494.22215765.28212,999.11211494.9255208,728.76206775.06204,008.89202279.95199,513.782766.166221,989.333319.3992221,436.103872.6324220,882.874425.8656220,329.635532.332219,223.175532.332219,223.17226,197.13226,197.13226,197.13226,197.13226,197.13226,197.13228970.5226,197.13224391.09221,617.72219811.68217,038.31215461.2405212,687.88210652.86207,879.49206073.45203,300.082773.3655226,197.133328.0386225,642.463882.7117225,087.794437.3848224,533.125546.731223,423.775546.731223,423.77230,405.36230,405.36230,405.36230,405.36230,405.36230,405.36233185.5230,405.36228521.79225,741.65223858.08221,077.94219427.5555216,647.41214530.66211,750.52209866.95207,086.812780.1415230,405.363336.1698229,849.333892.1981229,293.304448.2264228,737.275560.283227,625.225560.283227,625.22234,613.58234,613.58234,613.58234,613.58234,613.58234,613.58237400.5234,613.58232652.49229,865.57227904.48225,117.56223393.8705220,606.95218408.46215,621.54213660.45210,873.532786.9175234,613.583344.301234,056.203901.6845233,498.824459.068232,941.435573.835231,826.675573.835231,826.67238,821.38238,821.38238,821.38238,821.38238,821.38238,821.38241615.5238,821.38236783.19233,989.07231950.88229,156.76227360.1855224,566.07222286.26219,492.14217453.95214,659.832794.117238,821.383352.9404238,262.563911.7638237,703.744470.5872237,144.915588.234236,027.275588.234236,027.27243,029.18243,029.18243,029.18243,029.18243,029.18243,029.18245830.5243,029.18240913.89238,112.57235997.28233,195.96231326.5005228,525.18226164.06223,362.74221247.45218,446.132801.3165243,029.183361.5798242,468.923921.8431241,908.664482.1064241,348.395602.633240,227.875602.633240,227.87247,237.41247,237.41247,237.41247,237.41247,237.41247,237.41250045.5247,237.41245044.59242,236.50240043.68237,235.59235292.8155232,484.72230041.86227,233.77225040.95222,232.862808.0925247,237.413369.711246,675.793931.3295246,114.174492.948245,552.555616.185244,429.325616.185244,429.32251,445.21251,445.21251,445.21251,445.21251,445.21251,445.21254260.5251,445.21249175.29246,360.00244090.08241,274.79239259.1305236,443.84233919.66231,104.37228834.45226,019.162815.292251,445.213378.3504250,882.153941.4088250,319.094504.4672249,756.035630.584248,629.925630.584248,629.92255,653.01255,653.01255,653.01255,653.01255,653.01255,653.01258475.5255,653.01253305.99250,483.50248136.48245,313.99243225.4455240,402.95237797.46234,974.97232627.95229,805.462822.4915255,653.013386.9898255,088.513951.4881254,524.014515.9864253,959.515644.983252,830.525644.983252,830.52259,861.23259,861.23259,861.23259,861.23259,861.23259,861.23262690.5259,861.23257436.69254,607.42252182.88249,353.61247191.7605244,362.49241675.26238,845.99236421.45233,592.182829.2675259,861.233395.121259,295.383960.9745258,729.534526.828258,163.675658.535257,031.975658.535257,031.97264,069.03264,069.03264,069.03264,069.03264,069.03264,069.03266905.5264,069.03261567.39258,730.92256229.28253,392.81251158.0755248,321.61245553.06242,716.59240214.95237,378.482836.467264,069.033403.7604263,501.743971.0538262,934.454538.3472262,367.155672.934261,232.575672.934261,232.57268,277.26268,277.26268,277.26268,277.26268,277.26268,277.26271120.5268,277.26265698.09262,854.85260275.68257,432.44255124.3905252,281.15249430.86246,587.62244008.45241,165.212843.243268,277.263411.8916267,708.613980.5402267,139.964549.1888266,571.315686.486265,434.015686.486265,434.01272,485.06272,485.06272,485.06272,485.06272,485.06272,485.06275335.5272,485.06269828.79266,978.35264322.08261,471.64259090.7055256,240.26253308.66250,458.22247801.95244,951.512850.4425272,485.063420.531271,914.973990.6195271,344.884560.708270,774.795700.885269,634.625700.885269,634.62276,693.28276,693.28276,693.28276,693.28276,693.28276,693.28279550.5276,693.28273959.49271,102.27268368.48265,511.26263057.0205260,199.80257186.46254,329.24251595.45248,738.232857.2185276,693.283428.6622276,121.844000.1059275,550.394571.5496274,978.955714.437273,836.065714.437273,836.06280,901.08280,901.08280,901.08280,901.08280,901.08280,901.08283765.5280,901.08278090.19275,225.77272414.88269,550.46267023.3355264,158.92261064.26258,199.84255388.95252,524.532864.418280,901.083437.3016280,328.204010.1852279,755.314583.0688279,182.435728.836278,036.665728.836278,036.66285,109.31285,109.31285,109.31285,109.31285,109.31285,109.31287980.5285,109.31282220.89279,349.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Metodologia Costo Per Cpita - Letrina de hoyo seco ventiladoMETODOLOGIA COSTO - EFECTIVIDAD-ALCANTARILLADOPrecio de Mercado (S/.)Factor de CorreccionPrecio de SocialCD16,958.77Monto de Inversin19841.7609-19841.7609CI2,882.99Beneficiarios160MONTO19,841.76Inversin Per Capita124.011005625Tipo de Cambio2.775Ratio C/E$44.69Linea de Corte$58.000.84$48.72Variacion indicadoresEvalucaion baseIncremento de Inversion (S/.)Disminucion de pob. Benef. (Hab.)09.0%8.2%Inversion per capita (S/.)124.011005625135.1719961312135.0882414216Linea de Corte $48.72$44.69$48.71$48.68