Vic Hydroclimate Chile v2

8/13/2019 Vic Hydroclimate Chile v2

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Using a gridded global data set to characterize regional hydroclimate in central Chile

E.M.C. Demaria1, E. Maurer2*, J. Sheffield3, E. Bustos1, D. Poblete1, S. Vicua1, !. Me"a1

1Ce#tro de Cambio $lobal, Po#tificia %#i&ersidad Cat'lica de Chile, Sa#tia(o, Chile

2Ci&il E#(i#eeri#( De)artme#t, Sa#ta Clara %#i&ersit, Sa#ta Clara, C+, %S+

3De)artme#t of Ci&il a#d E#&iro#me#tal E#(i#eeri#(, Pri#ceto# %#i&ersit, Pri#ceto#, J, %S+

*Corres)o#di#( author, emaurer-e#(r.scu.edu, /0210.

Pro)osed submissio# to J. 4drometeorolo(

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Abstract

Ce#tral Chile is faci#( dramatic )ro7ectio#s of climate cha#(e, 8ith a co#se#sus for decli#i#(

)reci)itatio#, #e(ati&el affecti#( hdro)o8er (e#eratio# a#d irri(ated a(riculture. 9isi#( from

sea le&el to 5,/// meters 8ithi# a dista#ce of 2// :ilometers, )reci)itatio# characteri"atio# is

difficult due to a lac: of lo#(term obser&atio#s, es)eciall at hi(her ele&atio#s. !or

u#dersta#di#( curre#t mea# a#d e;treme co#ditio#s a#d rece#t hdroclimatolo(ical cha#(e, as

8ell as to )ro&ide a baseli#e for do8#scali#( climate model )ro7ectio#s, a tem)orall a#d

s)atiall com)lete data set of dail meteorolo( is esse#tial.


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Introduction

# res)o#se to this #eed,

data sets of dail (ridded meteorolo(ical obser&atio#s ha&e bee# (e#erated, both o&er

co#ti#e#tal re(io#s Ae.(.,Cosgrove et al., 2//3Maurer et al., 2//2 a#d (loball [Adam and

Lettenmaier, 2//3Sheffield et al., 2//5. @hese ha&e be#efited from 8or: at coarser time scales

[Chen et al., 2//2Daly et al., 166Mithell and !ones, 2//New et al., 2///Willmott and

Matsuura, 2//1, 8ith ma# )roducts combi#i#( multi)le sources, such as statio# obser&atio#s,

remotel se#sed ima(es, a#d model rea#alses.


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Ce#tral Chile is a# es)eciall challe#(i#( e#&iro#me#t for characteri"i#( climate a#d hdrolo(

si#ce the terrai# e;hibits dramatic ele&atio# cha#(es o&er short dista#ces, a#d the oro(ra)hic

effects this dri&es )roduce hi(h s)atial hetero(e#eit i# )reci)itatio# i# )articular. ># (e#eral, the

obser&atio# statio# de#sit i# South +merica is i#ade?uate for lo#(term hdroclimate

characteri"atio# [de "onalves et al., 2//5. # this stud, 8e utili"e a #e8 hi(hresolutio# (lobal dail (ridded dataset of tem)erature a#d)reci)itatio#, ad7ust it 8ith a&ailable local climatolo(ical i#formatio#, a#d assess its utilit for

re)rese#ti#( ri&er basi# hdrolo(. 9eco(#i"i#( the &alue i# simulati#( realistic e;treme e&e#ts,

8e assess the #e8 data )roduct for its abilit to )roduce reaso#able dail streamflo8 statistics.


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of the ad7usted data set &alidatio# a#d model simulatio#s are discussed i# Sectio# . !i#all, the

mai# co#clusio#s of the stud are )rese#ted i# Sectio# .

Region

@he focus area of this stud is ce#tral Chile !i(ure 1F, e#com)assi#( the four ma7or ri&er basi#s

from #orth to south, the 9a)el, Mata?uito, Maule, a#d >tata 9i&ersF bet8ee# latitudes 3.2G S

a#d 3.G S. @he climate is Mediterra#ea#, 8ith 0/H of the )reci)itatio# falli#( i# the rai#

seaso# from Ma+u(ust [$alvey and "arreaud, 2//. @he terrai# is dramatic, risi#(a))ro;imatel 5/// meters 8ithi# a hori"o#tal dista#ce of a))ro;imatel 2// :m, )roduci#(

shar) (radie#ts i# climate [$alvey and "arreaud, 2//6.

Dri&e# b the terrai#, the area e;hibits a dramatic climate (radie#t, 8ith mea# )reci)itatio# of

a))ro;imatel // mm )er ear at the orth e#d of the stud domai#, a#d as much as 3/// mm

)er ear i# the hi(h ele&atio#s at the Souther# e#d of the domai#. >t is e&ide#t from !i(ure 1 that

the hi(h ele&atio# areas are u#derre)rese#ted b a# of the obser&atio# statio#s.

@he re(io# of Ce#tral Chile is es)eciall im)orta#t from a hdroclimatolo(ical sta#d)oi#t, as it

co#tai#s the lar(est )ro)ortio# of irri(ated a(riculture a#d reser&oir stora(e of a# re(io# i# the

cou#tr a#d )ro&ides 8ater su))l for some of ChileIs lar(est cities. + cha#(i#( climate is

e&ide#t i# rece#t hdroclimate records [%u#io&'lvare( and M)hee, 2/1/, a#d future climate

)ro7ectio#s for the re(io# i#dicate the )ote#tial for &er lar(e im)acts [*radley et al., 2//5. @he

&ul#erabilit of Ce#tral Chile to )ro7ected climate cha#(e is hi(h, 8ith robust dri#( tre#ds i#

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$e#eral Circulatio# Model $CMF )ro7ectio#s, a#d a hi(h se#siti&it to cha#(i#( s#o8 melt

)atter#s [+iuna et al., 2/1/, 8ho also discuss the challe#(es i# characteri"i#( climate i# a

Chilea# catchme#t 8ith fe8 )reci)itatio# obser&atio#s, a#d #o#e at hi(h ele&atio#s.

Methods and data

"ridded data set develoment


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the C9% s)atial scale. Ma;imum a#d mi#imum tem)eratures are also scaled to match the C9%

time series, usi#( C9% mo#thl mea# tem)erature a#d diur#al tem)erature ra#(e.


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those that had at least 6/H com)lete mo#thl records for the 2ear )eriod 16032//. @he

mo#thl a&era(e )reci)itatio# for the 2ear )eriod for these / D$+ statio#s 8as i#ter)olated

o#to the same /.2G (rid usi#( co:ri(i#(, 8ith ele&atio# bei#( the co&ariate. @his method of

co:ri(i#( has bee# sho8# to im)ro&e :ri(i#( i#ter)olatio# to i#clude oro(ra)hic effects i#duced

b com)le; terrai# [Diodato and Cearelli, 2//.evesi et al., 1662.

@his )rocess )roduced 12 mo#thl mea# )reci)itatio# ma)s for the re(io#. @he same 16032//

)eriod 8as e;tracted from the dail (ridded data set, a#d mo#thl a&era(e &alues 8ere calculated

for each (rid cell. 9atios 12, o#e for each mo#thF of obser&ed climatolo( di&ided b the(ridded data set a&era(e 8ere the# calculated for each (rid cell. Dail &alues i# the (ridded data

set 8ere ad7usted to create a #e8 set of dail )reci)itatio# data, Pad7, 8hich matches the

i#ter)olated obser&atio#s )roduced 8ith co:ri(i#(, usi#( a sim)le ratio

( ) ( ) ( )

( )ji)

ji)tji)tji)

mongrid

mono#s

gridadj,

,

,,,,

,

,

= 1F

8here P(rid is the ori(i#al dail (ridded /.2G data at locatio# i,jF, Pobs is the i#ter)olated

obser&ed climatolo(, o&erbars i#dicate the 2ear mea#, a#d the subscri)t monN i#dicates the

mo#th from the climatolo( i# 8hich da tfalls.

@his same method 8as a))lied to a (lobal dataset of dail meteorolo( i# a data s)arse re(io# i#

Ce#tral +merica, resulti#( i# im)ro&ed characteri"atio# of )reci)itatio# a#d la#d surface

hdrolo( [Maurer et al., 2//6. ># additio#, this #e8 ad7usted data set i#cludes the full 160

2//0 )eriod, des)ite the fact that local obser&atio#s are &er s)arse before 160/.

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@o &alidate the ad7usted )reci)itatio# data set, 8e com)uted a set of statistical )arameters 8idel

used to describe climate e;tremes [dos Santos et al., 2/11 /0 1hang and 2an(, 2//.

+dditio#all to e&aluate the tem)oral characteristics of rai#fall e&e#ts 8e com)uted the 8et, dr

a#d tra#sitio# )robabilities. @able 1 sho8s a descri)tio# of the statistics used.

@o e&aluate if the ad7usted )reci)itatio# data set 8as ca)turi#( the oro(ra)hic (radie#t of

)reci)itatio# 8e com)ared V>C simulated S#o8 S s#o8 co&er data are based o# a s#o8 ma))i#( al(orithm that em)los aormali"ed Differe#ce S#o8 >#de; [.all et al., 2//5. @o estimate s#o8 co&er from the

meteorolo(ical data, a hdrolo(ical model 8as em)loed.

.ydrologi Model Simulations

@o assess the abilit of the dail (ridded meteorolo( de&elo)ed i# this stud to ca)ture dail

climate features across the 8atersheds, 8e simulate the hdrolo( of ri&er basi#s i# the re(io# to

obtai# streamflo8 a#d s#o8 co&er estimates. @he hdrolo(ic model used is the Variable

>#filtratio# Ca)acit V>CF model [Cherkauer et al., 2//3Liang et al., 166. @he V>C model is

a distributed, )hsicallbased hdrolo(ic model that bala#ces both surface e#er( a#d 8ater

bud(ets o&er a (rid mesh. @he V>C model uses a mosaicN scheme that allo8s a statistical

re)rese#tatio# of the sub(rid s)atial &ariabilit i# to)o(ra)h, i#filtratio# a#d &e(etatio#Kla#d

co&er, a# im)orta#t attribute 8he# simulati#( hdrolo( i# hetero(e#eous terrai#. @he resulti#(

ru#off at each (rid cell is routed throu(h a defi#ed ri&er sstem usi#( the al(orithm de&elo)ed b

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Lohma## et al. A1665. @he V>C model has bee# successfull a))lied i# ma# setti#(s, from

(lobal to ri&er basi# scale Ae.(.,Maurer et al., 2//2Nijssen et al., 2//1bSheffield and Wood,

2//.

!or this stud, the model 8as ru# at a dail time ste) at a /.2G resolutio# a))ro;imatel 53/

:m2)er (rid cell for the stud re(io#F. Ele&atio# data for the basi# routi#( are based o# the 1

arcseco#d 4drosheds dataset [Lehner et al., 2//5, deri&ed from the Shuttle 9adar @o)o(ra)h

Missio# S9@MF at 3 arcseco#d resolutio#. La#d co&er a#d soil hdraulic )ro)erties 8ere based

o# &alues from Sheffield a#d C soil )arameters8ere modified duri#( calibratio#. @he ri&er sstems co#tributi#( to selected )oi#ts 8ere defi#ed

at a /.2G resolutio#, follo8i#( the tech#i?ue outli#ed b =ODo##ell et al. A1666.

Results and Discussion

@he ad7usted data set 8as &alidated i# se&eral 8as. !irst, dail statistics 8ere com)ared

bet8ee# the ad7usted (lobal dail data set a#d local obser&atio#s, 8here a&ailable. Seco#d,

hdrolo(ic simulatio# out)uts 8ere com)ared to obser&atio#s to i#&esti(ate the )lausibilit of

usi#( the #e8 data set as a# obser&atio#al baseli#e for studi#( climate im)acts o# hdrolo(.

"ridded meteorologial data develoment and assessment

@he ?ualit of dail (ridded )reci)itatio# fields 8as im)ro&ed usi#( a&ailable mo#thl obser&ed

)reci)itatio#. 9ai# (au(e records from D$+ 8ere selected usi#( t8o criteria statio#s 8ith

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records of t8e#tfi&e ears a#d 8ith #o more tha# 1/H missi#( dail measureme#ts. Based o#

those t8o co#strai#ts the )eriod 16032// 8as ide#tified as that 8ith the lar(est #umber of

re)orti#( statio#s. !rom the )ool of / a&ailable statio#s, / statio#s met the t8o criteria !i(ure

1F. E;ce)t for the >tata ri&er basi#, 8hich had t8o statio#s located at 12// a#d 2// meters

abo&e sea le&el, most of the selected statio#s 8ere located i# the ce#tral )art of the re(io# at

ele&atio#s belo8 // meters. Mea# )reci)itatio# 8as com)uted for each mo#th a#d for each

selected statio#, resulti#( i# 12 mea# &alues for the 2ear climatolo(ical )eriod.

Co:ri(i#( 8as the# a))lied to )roduce a set of 12 ma)s of climatolo(ical )reci)itatio# at /.2Gs)atial resolutio#. + scatter )lot bet8ee# obser&ed a#d )redicted mo#thl )reci)itatio# for Jul,

the middle of the rai# seaso#, is sho8# i# !i(ure 3. Co:ri(ed mo#thl totals match

obser&atio#s ?uite closel for the re(io# 8ith a bias e?ual to /.0 H 8ith res)ect to the obser&ed

&alues a#d a relati&e 9MSE of /./ H.

!i(ure sho8s the ad7usted (ridded a##ual )reci)itatio# fields a#d the differe#ce from the

ori(i#al (ridded obser&ed data set for the )eriod 16/2//5. >t is e&ide#t that i# the more humid

souther# mou#tai#ous )ortio# of the stud area there has bee# a mar:ed i#crease i# )reci)itatio#

8ith the ad7ustme#t, i#cor)orati#( the more detailed i#formatio# embedded i# the rai# (au(e

obser&atio#s. Differe#ces bet8ee# ori(i#al a#d ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio# i#dicates the

e;iste#ce of a ba#d alo#( the +#des 8here a##ual )reci)itatio# is (reater i# the ad7usted

)reci)itatio# data set !i(ure bF.

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@o &erif ho8 the ad7usted dail )reci)itatio# relates to obser&atio#s, 8e com)ared dail rai#fall

at selected /.2G (rid )oi#ts 8ith the dabda mea#s of three rai# (au(e statio#s located i#

a))ro;imatel a / :m diameter circle !i(ure F. 9ai# (au(e statio#s 8ere selected from the

)ool of / statio#s used to )erform the co:ri(i#( i#ter)olatio#, he#ce the had record of 2 ears

8ith #ot more tha# 1/H missi#( &alues. Selected statio#s 8ere located, 8he# )ossible, #ot more

that /H hi(her or lo8er ele&atio#s tha# that of the /.2G (rid cell. !our /.2G (rid )oi#ts 8ere

selected for the com)ariso#. @he locatio#s of the four (rid )oi#ts are listed i# @able 2. !or these

four locatio#s, 8e com)uted basic statistics, bias, 9MSE a#d correlatio# coefficie#t for dail

obser&ed =BSF a#d dail ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio# +DJF for +ustral summer DJ!F a#d+ustral 8i#ter JJ+F for the )eriod 16032//. Summar statistics are sho8# i# @able 3. @he

bias is defi#ed as the sum of the differe#ces bet8ee# +DJ a#d =BS a#d the 9MSE is e?ual to

the root mea# s?uared error bet8ee# the +DJ a#d =BS dail )reci)itatio# &alues.

Mea# dail &alues are &er close for the obser&ed a#d ad7usted datasets for both seaso#s, 8hich

is e;)ected (i&e# the ad7ustme#t )rocess. @he &ariabilit of dail )reci)itatio# 8ithi# each

seaso#, re)rese#ted b the sta#dard de&iatio#, also com)ares relati&el 8ell, thou(h the ad7usted

(ridded data sho8 (reater &ariabilit tha# the obser&atio#s duri#( the rai# 8i#ter seaso#. +

hi(h 9MSE a#d lo8 correlatio# &alues i#dicate that tem)oral se?ue#ci#( differs bet8ee# the t8o

data sets. @his is #ot u#e;)ected, si#ce the dail )reci)itatio# i# the ori(i#al /.2G (ridded data

8as deri&ed from rea#alsis, a#d as such it is a model out)ut that does #ot i#cor)orate statio#

obser&atio#s [-alnay et al., 1665. @hus, 8hile im)orta#t characteristics of dail )reci)itatio#

&ariabilit are re)rese#ted i# the /.2G (ridded data, a#d mo#thl totals should bear resembla#ce

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to obser&atio#s at least as re)rese#ted b the u#derli#( mo#thl data such as C9%F,

corres)o#de#ce 8ith obser&ed dail )reci)itatio# e&e#ts is #ot a#tici)ated.

#de; SD>>F, 8hich is a measure of the mea# a##ual i#te#sit of rai#fall,

also sho8s (ood a(reeme#t at the four locatio#s, i#dicati#( that the #umber of rai# das is 8ell

re)rese#ted i# the ad7usted dataset. @he #umber of das 8ith i#te#sities lar(er tha# the 2/ mm

92/mmF com)ares 8ell bet8ee# obser&atio#s a#d ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio#, thou(h the

ad7usted (ridded data sli(htl u#derestimate obser&atio#s. @he ma;imum co#secuti&e #umber of

dr das a#d 8et das i# a ear is lo8er for the ad7usted (ridded obser&atio#s com)ared to

obser&atio#s su((esti#( the duratio#s of 8et a#d dr e&e#ts are shorter i# the ad7usted (ridded

data set.

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!i(ure sho8s that the )robabilities of a da bei#( 8et or dr are com)arable bet8ee# both

datasets )a#els a a#d bF. Co#&ersel the ad7usted )reci)itatio# data sho8s a# a&era(e

tra#sitio# )robabilit of a 8et da follo8ed b a 8et da of /.21 com)ared to /./ obtai#ed for

the obser&atio#s su((esti#( that the duratio# of storm e&e#ts is shorter i# the ad7usted (ridded

dataset. @his could )artiall e;)lai# the u#derestimatio# of ma;imum co#secuti&e 8et das

C


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@o assess the re)rese#tatio# i# the #e8 meteorolo(ical data set of basi#8ide a#d hi(h ele&atio#

areas, the ad7usted (ridded data de&elo)ed a#d assessed i# the )re&ious sectio#s 8ere the# used

to dri&e the V>C hdrolo(ic model. Si#ce the )reci)itatio# 8as sho8# to be com)arable to

obser&atio#s 8here a&ailableF i# ma# im)orta#t res)ects, a#other &alidatio# of the dri&i#(

meteorolo( 8ould be the successful simulatio# of obser&ed streamflo8 a#d s#o8 co&er.

9ecords of obser&ed streamflo8 i# the re(io# te#d to be i#com)lete or for short )eriods, a#d

si#ce most of the ri&ers are affected b reser&oirs a#d di&ersio#s the flo8s ofte# do #ot reflect

#atural streamflo8 as simulated b the V>C model. !or this )ro7ect, 8e focused o# three sites,

8hich are sho8# i# !i(ure 1.

!or the site o# the Mata?uito 9i&er, the V>C model 8as calibrated to mo#thl stream flo8s for

the )eriod 166/1666 usi#( the Multi=b7ecti&e Com)le; E&olutio# M=C=M%+F al(orithm

[2ao et al., 1660. @he three o)timi"atio# criteria used i# this stud 8ere the ashSutcliff

model efficie#c [Nash and Sutliffe, 16/ usi#( both flo8 SEF a#d the lo(arithm of flo8

SElo(F, a#d the bias, e;)ressed as a )erce#t of obser&ed mea# flo8. @his )ro&ides a bala#ce

bet8ee# criteria that )e#ali"e errors at hi(h flo8s a#d others that are less se#siti&e to a small

#umber of lar(e errors at hi(h flo8s [Lettenmaier and Wood, 1663. !i(ure 0 sho8s the V>C

simulatio# results for the calibratio# )eriod a#d for a &alidatio# )eriod of 2///2//. @he flo8s

for both )eriods (e#erall meet the criteria for satisfactorN calibratio# based o# the criteria of

Moriasi et al. A2//, 8ith a SE Q /./ a#d absolute bias R 2H the third criterio# of Moriasi

8as #ot calculated for this e;)erime#tF.


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calibratio# )eriod, the reaso#able )ea:s, lo8 flo8s, a#d satisfactor calibratio# a#d &alidatio# do

ser&e to )ro&ide further &alidatio# of the dri&i#( meteorolo( as )lausible.

Des)ite the hi(hl &ariable )reci)itatio# across the stud re(io#, 8e a))lied the same V>C

calibrated )arameters from the Mata?uito basi# to the e#tire domai# a#d used the V>C model to

(e#erate streamflo8 at the other t8o (a(e sites. @his a&oids the )ossibilit of allo8i#( e;te#si&e

calibratio# to hide meteorolo(ical data deficie#cies. @he simulated flo8s for the )eriod 2///

2// for each site, a#d the associated statistics, are i# !i(ures 6 a#d 1/. @he simulated flo8s o#

a&era(e sho8 little bias i# both locatio#s. @he Claro 9i&er SElo( &alue is lo8, reflecti#( theu#derestimatio# of lo8 flo8s a#d o&erestimatio# of )ea: flo8s duri#( the simulatio# )eriod,

thou(h the hi(her SE &alue su((ests the errors at the hi(h flo8s are #ot as sstematic. @he

Lo#comillo 9i&er dis)las a (e#eral o&erestimatio# b V>C of lo8 flo8s, thou(h both SE a#d

SElo( are abo&e the satisfactorN threshold. C model could

)roduce si#ce #o calibratio# 8as )erformed for t8o of the three basi#sF, the do )ro&ide some

further &alidatio# that the dri&i#( meteorolo( a))ears )lausible, a#d does #ot a))ear to sho8

a# sstematic biases.

+ com)ariso# of four streamflo8 )ro)erties are sho8# i# !i(ure 11 for the three simulated

basi#s.


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@he u#)aired Stude#tOs ttest i#dicates the distributio#s ha&e e?ual mea#s at a H si(#ifica#ce

le&el. @he 8ater ear &olume a#d the 3da )ea: flo8 are sstematicall o&erestimated b V>C

simulatio#s, ho8e&er their mea#s are fou#d to statisticall e?ual 8ith the e;ce)tio# of the 9io

Claro 3da )ea: flo8. Lo8 flo8s are o&er a#d u#derestimated b V>C simulatio#s but o#l the

Lo#comillo 9i&er has mea#s that are statisticall differe#t !i(ure 11dF.

9eco(#i"i#( the hi(h de)e#de#ce of this re(io# o# s#o8 melt a#d thus the im)orta#ce of this

)rocess bei#( 8ell re)rese#ted, 8e &alidate the hi(h ele&atio# meteorolo( of the #e8 data set

b com)ari#( V>C simulated SS 0da (lobal s#o8 co&era(e for si; e&e#tsbet8ee# 2//2 a#d 2//. @he satellite ima(es 8ere selected i# mid +u(ust to ca)ture the

ma;imum s#o8 accumulatio# i# the re(io#. !ollo8i#( Maurer et al. A2//3 a s#o8 de)th of

2. mm 8as used as threshold to i#dicate the )rese#ce of s#o8 o# the (rou#d. M=D>S s#o8

co&era(e 8as i#ter)olated to a /.2G (rid usi#( tria#(lebased cubic i#ter)olatio#. V>C simulated

SS ei(htda )eriod. Stro#( similarities i# the s)atial

e;te#t is fou#d bet8ee# M=D>S a#d V>C simulated the s#o8 co&era(e for the )eriod +u(ust

2120, 2//2 !i(ure 12F. @he a&era(e area co&ered b s#o8 i# the si; ears is 12,32/ a#d

15,// :m2 i# V>C simulatio#s a#d M=D>S, res)ecti&el. @his re)rese#ts a 3H error i# the

SC+ simulated b the V>C model, 8hich is &er small.

@able is a co#ti#(e#c table of relati&e fre?ue#cies of s#o8K#o s#o8 i# M=D>S a#d V>C

simulated SS 8ith fre?ue#cies of /.5

a#d /.2H for #o s#o8 a#d s#o8 classificatio#, res)ecti&el. Co#&ersel the occurre#ce of

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misclassified s#o8K#o s#o8 e&e#ts is ?uite lo8, i# the order of /./5H i#dicati#( a# e;celle#t

a(reeme#t bet8ee# both data sources.

Conclusions

># this studa# ad7usted (ridded dail )reci)itatio# data set is de&elo)ed for Ce#tral Chile for

the )eriod 1602//0. 9ai# (au(e data are used to correct the i#accuracies i# the re)rese#tatio#

of oro(ra)hic distributio# of )reci)itatio# e;iste#t i# the a&ailable (lobal (ridded data set.

+d7usted (ridded data are &alidated usi#( statio# obser&atio#s a#d hdrolo(ical modelsimulatio#s.

># datas)arse re(io#s, a sim)le co:ri(i#( method that i#cor)orates to)o(ra)hic ele&atio# as

co&ariate ca# be successfull used to im)ro&e the s)atial re)rese#tatio# of (ridded )reci)itatio#

i# areas 8ith com)le; terrai#. + mo#thtomo#th ad7usti#( ca# effecti&el remo&e biases i#

)reci)itatio# &alues haili#( from fe8 or #o#e;iste#t rai# (au(e obser&atio#s.

@he ad7usted (ridded )reci)itatio# is able to ca)ture )reci)itatio# e#ha#ceme#t due to oro(ra)h

i# the re(io# 8ith a (ood re)rese#tatio# of a##ual totals a#d )reci)itatio# i#te#sit. 4o8e&er the

duratio# of storm e&e#ts is sli(htl shorter tha# obser&ed )erha)s as a result of com)ari#( a 53/

:m2(rid cell to the smaller, more discrete, areal )reci)itatio# re)rese#ted b three a&era(ed rai#

(au(es. @he statistics of e;treme )reci)itatio# e&e#ts are 8ell ca)tured b the ad7usted (ridded

data set 8hich e#coura(es its use for climate cha#(e a))licatio#s.

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Streamflo8 simulatio#s i# three basi#s realisticall ca)ture hi(h a#d lo8 flo8s statistical

)ro)erties i#dicati#( that the dri&i#( meteorolo( i# the ad7usted (ridded data set is 8ell

re)rese#ted. Simulated S=V+ (ra#t to the Ce#tro de Cambio $lobal a#d the

De)artame#to de >#(e#iera 4idrTulica +mbie#tal at the Po#tificia %#i&ersidad Cat'lica de

Chile. + !ulbri(ht Visiti#( Scholars $ra#t also )ro&ided )artial su))ort to the seco#d author.

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References

+dam, J. C., a#d D. P. Lette#maier 2//3F, +d7ustme#t of (lobal (ridded )reci)itatio# for

sstematic bias,!0 "eohys %es0, 456D6F, 11.

Bradle, 9. S., M. Vuille, 4. !. Dia", a#d


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Diodato, ., a#d M. Ceccarelli 2//F, >#ter)olatio# )rocesses usi#( multi&ariate (eostatistics

for ma))i#( of climatolo(ical )reci)itatio# mea# i# the Sa##io Mou#tai#s souther# >talF,

9arth Surfae )roesses and Landforms, 753F, 26250.

dos Sa#tos, C. +. C., C. M. %. eale, @. V. 9. 9ao, a#d B. B. da Sil&a 2/11F, @re#ds i# i#dices

for e;tremes i# dail tem)erature a#d )reci)itatio# o&er %tah, %S+,3nt0 !0 Climatol0, 7412F,

10131022.

!al&e, M., a#d 9. $arreaud 2//F, #flue#ces, !0 .ydrometeorology,

62F, 11163.!al&e, M., a#d 9. D. $arreaud 2//6F, 9e(io#al cooli#( i# a 8armi#( 8orld 9ece#t

tem)erature tre#ds i# the southeast Pacific a#d alo#( the 8est coast of subtro)ical South

+merica 166WX02112//5F,!0 "eohys0 %es0, 44:DF, D/1/2.

4all, D. U., $. S. 9i((s, a#d V. V. Salomo#so# 2//5F, %)dated dail. M=D>SK@erra S#o8

Co&er 0Da L3 $lobal /./de( CM$ V//, Di(ital media, edited, atio#al S#o8 a#d >ce

Data Ce#ter, Boulder, Colorado %S+.

4e&esi, J. +., J. D. >sto:, a#d +. L. !li#t 1662F, Preci)itatio# Estimatio# i# Mou#tai#ous

@errai# %si#( Multi&ariate $eostatistics. Part > Structural +#alsis, !ournal of Alied

Meteorology, 74F, 55155.

4uffma#, $. J., D. @. Bol&i#, E. J. el:i#, D. B.


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>PCC 2/11F, 3ntergovernmental )anel on Climate Change Seial %eort on Managing the

%isks of 9;treme 9vents and Disasters to Advane Climate Change Adatation, Summary for

)oliymakers, Cambrid(e %#i&ersit Press, Cambrid(e, %#ited Ui#(dom a#d e8 Yor:,

Y, %S+.

Ual#a, E., M. Ua#amitsu, 9. Uistler, redell, S. Saha, $.


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Maurer, E. P., J. C. +dam, a#d +.


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i7sse#, B., $. M. =IDo##ell, D. P. Lette#maier, D. Lohma##, a#d E. !. . @., D. 9. Caa#, a#d M. D. Detti#(er 2//F, Cha#(es to8ard earlier streamflo8

timi#( across 8ester# orth +merica,!0 Climate, 460F, 113511.

Vicu#a, S., 9. D. $arreaud, a#d J. McPhee 2/1/F, Climate cha#(e im)acts o# the hdrolo( of

a s#o8melt dri&e# basi# i# semiarid Chile, Climati Change, in ressB.

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Table 1 !ist of statistical "uantities and descri#tions$

ame Descri)tio#

96) +##ual total )reci)itatio# 8he# rai#fall Q 6th )rctile

966) +##ual total )reci)itatio# 8he# rai#fall Q 66th )rctile

P9CP@=@ +##ual total )reci)itatio# i# 8et das 99 Q]1mmF

C> Sim)le dail i#te#sit i#de; mea# a##ual i#te#sit for 99 Q ] 1 mm

9mm +##ual cou#t of das 8ith Preci)itatio# Q] mm

92/mm +##ual cou#t of das 8ith Preci)itatio# Q] 2/ mm

91d Ma;imum 1 da )reci)itatio# i# the ear

9d Ma;imum das )reci)itatio# i# the ear

P< Probabilit of


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Loc3 3.0 1.12

Loc 35.12 1.52

2

3


28/44

Table ( Daily #reci#itation statistics for summer )D*+, and winter )**A, #eriods- 1./(%00$ 234 are

obser'ations- AD* are ad&usted gridded meteorology$

Summer DJ!F Statistics=BS

Mea#

mmF

+DJ

Mea#

mmF

=BS Std

mmF

+DJ Std

mmF

Mea#

Bias

mmF

9MSE

mmF

Correlatio#

Loc1 /./0 /./0 1.21 /.53 /.// 1.3 /./1Loc2 /.1 /.11 1.51 /.6 /./3 1.1 /./2Loc3 /.5 /.5/ . 2.26 /./ .00 /./1Loc /.5/ /. .30 2.3 /./ .66 /./1


29/44

Table 5 Correlation coefficients between obser'ed and ad&usted daily #reci#itation statistical #arameters$

4haded 'alues indicate the null hy#othesis of e"ual means cannot be re&ected at the 67 le'el based on a ttest$

966) 96) P9C@=@ SD>> 9mm 92/mm C


30/44

Table 6 Contingency table summarizing the com#arisons of M2DI4 and 9IC simulated snow co'er$ 9alues

are relati'e fre"uencies calculated as the total number of occurrences in each category di'ided by the number

of #i:els )16(0,$

o S#o8 S#o8 @otalo S#o8 /.5 /./ /.56S#o8 /./5 /.2 /.31@otal /.1 /.26 1./

3/

5

0

6

5/


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!ist of +igures

!i(ure 1 $eo(ra)hic locatio# of the stud area i# Ce#tral Chile. !rom #orth to south the basi#s

are 9a)el, Mata?uito Mata?uito ri&er at Lica#te#F, Maule Claro ri&er at 9au?ue# a#d

Lo#comilla ri&er at Bode(aF a#d >tata ri&er basi#s. Circles i#dicate the locatio# of D$+ rai#

(au(es a#d stars the locatio# of the three stream (au(es used i# V>C simulatio#s

!i(ure 2 Ma)s of a##ual )reci)itatio# for the )eriod 161160/. Source aF (ridded (lobal

obser&atio#s a#d bF D$+. Preci)itatio# la)se rates for latitudi#al ba#ds 3.12 S a#d 35.12 S

for cF (lobal (ridded )reci)itatio# data set a#d dF D$+ data set.!i(ure 3 Scatter)lots of obser&ed a#d )redicted mo#thl )reci)itatio# for the mo#th of Jul.

!i(ure aF +##ual ad7usted (lobal )reci)itatio# for the )eriod 16/2//5 a#d bF differe#ces

bet8ee# the ori(i#al (lobal (ridded a#d the ad7usted (lobal )reci)itatio# data sets.

!i(ure Locatio# of D$+ rai# (au(e statio#s a#d ad7usted (lobal )reci)itatio# (rid )oi#ts used

for &alidatio# of dail rai#fall.

!i(ure 5 Bo;)lots of statistical )arameters, (ree# re)rese#ts obser&atio#s a#d )ur)le re)rese#ts

ad7usted )reci)itatio# for each (eo(ra)hic locatio#. @he bottom a#d to) li#es re)rese#t the 2th

a#d th )erce#tiles a#d the middle li#e re)rese#ts the media#. #ter uartile 9a#(e. @he >#ter

uartile 9a#(e is the differe#ce bet8ee# the third a#d the first ?uartile, i.e., 2th a#d th

)erce#tiles. =utliers are dis)laed 8ith a )lus si(#.

!i(ure Probabilities of aF 8et a#d bF dr das, a#d tra#sitio# )robabilities cF a#d dF. Dail

obser&ed blac:F a#d ad7usted (ridded (reF )reci)itatio# for the four selected locatio#s.

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!i(ure 0 =bser&ed a#d Simulated mo#thl flo8s for the Mata?uito ri&er at Lica#te# for the

calibratio# )eriod to) )a#elF a#d &alidatio# )eriod bottom )a#elF. Summar statistics are

sho8# i# each )a#el.

!i(ure 6 Mo#thl obser&ed a#d simulated flo8s for the Claro ri&er at 9au?ue#.

!i(ure 1/ Same as !i(ure 6 but for Lo#comilla ri&er at Bode(a.

!i(ure 11 Statistical )ro)erties of obser&ed a#d V>C simulated stream flo8s i# three basi#s

Mata?uito ri&er, Claro ri&er a#d Lo#comilla ri&er. aF Ce#ter timi#(, bF 8ater ear &olume, cF

3da )ea: flo8s a#d dF da lo8 flo8s.

!i(ure 12 Com)ariso# of s#o8 co&era(e for the )eriod +u(ust 2120, 2//2. Shaded areasi#dicate s#o8 co&era(e. aF M=D>S a#d bF V>C simulated S#o8


33/44

+igure 1 ;eogra#hic location of the study area in Central Chile$ +rom north to south the basins are< Ra#el-

Mata"uito )Mata"uito ri'er at !icanten,- Maule )Claro ri'er at Rau"uen and !oncomilla ri'er at 3odega,

and Itata ri'er basins$ Circles indicate the location of D;A rain gauges and stars the location of the three

stream gauges used in 9IC simulations

33

51

52

535

5

5

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+igure % Ma#s of annual #reci#itation for the #eriod 1.611./0$ 4ource a, gridded global obser'ations and

b, D;A$ =reci#itation la#se rates for latitudinal bands (6$1%6 4 and (8$1%6 4 for c, global gridded

#reci#itation data set and d, D;A data set$

3

55

5

5056

/

1

5

50


35/44

+igure ( 4catter#lots of obser'ed and #redicted monthly #reci#itation for the month of *uly$

3

2

3

56

/


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+igure 5 a, Annual ad&usted global #reci#itation for the #eriod 1.60%008 and b, differences between the

original global gridded and the ad&usted global #reci#itation data sets$

35

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0

1

2


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+igure 6 !ocation of D;A rain gauge stations and ad&usted global #reci#itation grid #oints used for

'alidation of daily rainfall$

3

6

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01

02

3


38/44

+igure 8 3o:#lots of statistical #arameters- green re#resents obser'ations and #ur#le re#resents ad&usted

#reci#itation for each geogra#hic location$ The bottom and to# lines re#resent the %6th and 6th #ercentiles

and the middle line re#resents the median$ >hiskers e:tend from each end of the bo: to the ad&acent 'alues

in the data within 1$6 times the Inter ?uartile Range$ The Inter ?uartile Range is the difference between the

third and the first "uartile- i$e$- %6th and 6th #ercentiles$ 2utliers are dis#layed with a #lus sign$

30

03

0

0

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0

00

5


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+igure =robabilities of a, wet and b, dry days- and transition #robabilities c, and d,$ Daily obser'ed

)black, and ad&usted gridded )grey, #reci#itation for the four selected locations$

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61

62

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+igure / 2bser'ed and 4imulated monthly flows for the Mata"uito ri'er at !icanten for the calibration

#eriod )to# #anel, and 'alidation #eriod )bottom #anel,$ 4ummary statistics are shown in each #anel$

/

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6

65

6

0/


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+igure . Monthly obser'ed and simulated flows for the Claro ri'er at Rau"uen$

1

6

60

01

02


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+igure 10 4ame as +igure . but for !oncomilla ri'er at 3odega$

2

66

5//

5/1

03

0


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+igure 11 4tatistical #ro#erties of obser'ed and 9IC simulated stream flows in three basins< Mata"uito

ri'er- Claro ri'er and !oncomilla ri'er$ )a, Center timing- )b, water year 'olume- )c, (day #eak flows and

)d, day low flows$

3

5/2

5/3

5/

5/

5/5

0

05


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+igure 1% Com#arison of snow co'erage for the #eriod August %1%/- %00%$ 4haded areas indicate snow

co'erage$ a, M2DI4 and b, 9IC simulated 4now >ater @"ui'alent$

5/

5/0

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