VirginiaHOME SALESREPORTQ4 2016
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 1
The Virginia REALTORS® association publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide
our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data
comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia REALTORS®. All data may be used
with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia REALTORS®.
The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent
cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not
necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in
Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more
counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®
(NVAR). Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Central Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond
Eastern Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland
Hampton Roads Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg
Northern Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park
Southside Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville
Southwest Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton
Valley Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester
West Central Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 2
Fourth Quarter and Year End Market Summary
The fourth quarter of 2016 contributed to a year of significant market strength. With
particularly strong sales in November, following consumer reaction to the conclusion of the
Federal election cycle and the anticipation of rising rates, sales in the fourth quarter of 2016
outperformed the prior year fourth quarter by 6.8 percent (from 24,639 transactions to
26,308). Likewise, fourth quarter volume grew year‐over‐year, from $7.830 billion in 2015 to
$8.527 billion in 2016. The 8.9 percent increase in volume resulted from the boost in sales
numbers, magnified by rising median prices. Statewide, median price for the fourth quarter
rose 3.9 percent from 2015 to 2016, from $255,175 to $265,000.
The value of transactions for all of 2016 exceeded $37.916 billion, up 8 percent from the
accumulated volume in 2015 ($35.095 billion). Despite mid‐year inventory constraints, every
quarter of 2016 outperformed prior year benchmarks. The strongest relative gains occurred
in the second quarter, with the aggregate of sales for April, May, and June rising 10.7 percent
higher than for the same months in 2015. Pace for the year rose 6.6 percent, with 116, 091
transactions in 2016, over 108,870 in 2015.
Year‐over‐year, fourth quarter home sales increased in all price bands except the lowest ($0
to $100,000), where limited inventory typically restricts market activity. The most significant
increase in market activity was in the $300,000 to $500,oo0 price range, with 13.1 percent
more transactions in that range than in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Sales increased in every region of the state in the fourth quarter. Median price rose regionally
for the quarter everywhere except in the Southwest, where there was a moderate decline.
Though 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest rates remain at enticing lows, they each
jumped notably from October to November and again from November to December.
Responding to the Federal Reserve Bank’s decision to raise the key rate in December,
average rates for 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest rates in the fourth quarter rose
to 3.81 percent and 3.07 percent, respectively. Effectively, the cost of borrowing rose in the
fourth quarter by an average of 10.6 percent and 11.6 percent for 30‐year and 15‐year fixed
mortgages, respectively. Rising but accessible rates may contribute to greater activity in 2017
as buyers react with urgency.
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 5,647 6,022 7,555 8,739 10,582 10,872 10,456 10,234 8,243 7,995 6,989 7,606
2014 5,427 5,705 7,150 8,507 9,701 10,633 10,176 9,486 8,360 8,448 6,662 8,306
2015 5,807 6,086 8,521 9,170 10,369 12,684 11,821 10,205 9,568 8,871 7,020 8,748
2016 5,943 6,561 8,672 10,202 11,772 13,274 11,509 11,754 10,096 8,953 8,504 8,851
Each month of the fourth quarter in 2016 had higher sales than in the corresponding months of the
previous year. November 2016 sales increased especially, rising more than 21 percent year‐over‐
year, from 7,020 in 2015 to 8,504 in 2016. Whereas pace usually declines markedly in the middle of
the fourth quarter, November 2016’s buoyancy contributed to a quarter that outperformed the end
of 2015 by 6.8 percent. Still reflecting industry seasonality, the 2016 fourth quarter pace declined
from the third quarter pace by 21.1 percent. The seasonal taper through the end of 2016 was on par
with 2015’s, when sales declined 22 percent from the third quarter to the fourth.
5,943 6,561
8,672
10,202
11,772
13,274
11,509 11,754
10,096
8,953 8,504
8,851
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Number of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales
Month‐to‐Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2013 2014 2015 2016
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 4
Sales in the fourth quarter of 2016 grew by 6.8 percent year‐over‐year, from a total of 24,639 in 2015
Q4 to 26,308. Relative to the fourth quarter of 2014, fourth quarter sales for 2016 rose 12.4 percent.
Further indicated through the annualized sales trend (page 5), year‐over‐year improvements in
quarterly performance indicate sustained market expansion.
Note: the horizontal bar in the graph indicates the variance in fourth quarter sales from 2013
through 2016, beginning with 22,590 sales in 2013 and rising eventually to 26,308 sales in 2016, with
graduated increases for each year in between. 2016 fourth quarter sales were 16.5 percent higher
than their 2013 benchmark.
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Number of Single Fam
ily, Townhome, C
ondo Sales
Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
6.8 %
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 5
Each data point on the graph above represents twelve months of home sales data ending in the
quarter shown. For example, the 2016 Q4 figure (116,091 sales) includes home sales from January
2016 through December 2016, and the 2016 Q4 figure (114,422 sales) includes home sales from
October 2015 through September 2016. This rolling sum of home sales reduces seasonal effect,
providing a clearer indicator of long‐term trends in Virginia’s housing market. The trend of
continued improvement in this measure illustrates how Virginia’s residential real estate market has
grown consistently over the long‐term. Annualized sales ending in the fourth quarter of 2016 grew
1.5 percent from the previous quarter. Year‐over‐year, the measure grew 6.6 percent.
Indicating that growth has been sustained regardless of seasonal market fluctuations, annualized
sales have grown for nine consecutive quarters. The average growth per quarter over that time
period has been 1.9 percent. This suggests that, if remaining on trend, the annualized sales figure
ending in the first quarter of 2017 may approach 118,000 sales.
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Number of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales
Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
6.6 %
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 6
Region 2015 Q4 2016 Q4
Central 5,296 5,690 7.4%
Eastern 488 555 13.7%
Hampton Roads 5,525 5,962 7.9%
Northern 9,016 9,598 6.5%
Southside 493 540 9.5%
Southwest 420 486 15.7%
Valley 1,420 1,431 0.8%
West Central 1,970 2,035 3.3%
Other 11 11 0%
ALL of Virginia 24,639 26,308 6.8%
The chart above compares 2015 fourth quarter sales to 2016 fourth quarter sales, by region. All
regions experienced growth from the same period last year, for a statewide aggregate jump of 6.8
percent. The greatest year‐over‐year percentage increases occurred in the Eastern and Southwest
regions. Performance metrics are relative to the absolute number of sales, so less dense regions
with increasing sales may show a relatively higher growth percentage. The densest regions –
Northern, Central, and Hampton Roads – all gained notably as well.
Regional Changes in Sales 2015 Q4 vs. 2016 Q4 Units
+15.7 %
+7.4 %
+3.3 %
+6.5 %
+9.5 %+7.9 %
13.7 %+0.8 %
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 7
In comparison to the fourth quarter of 2015, aggregate median price rose by 3.9 percent for the
fourth quarter of 2016. Relative to the fourth quarter of 2014, median price rose by 5.6 percent.
Price rises have been spurred by increased buyer confidence, with demand exceeding supply.
Reflecting typical seasonal trends, median price fell relative to the third quarter of 2016 by 2.2
percent, from $271,000 to $265,000. A decline in price from the third to fourth quarters is expected
as the industry seasonality is more pronounced in winter months.
$232,500
$268,242
$263,520
$249,000
$235,000
$267,000
$260,000
$251,000
$247,525 $274,950
$265,000
$255,175
$249,900 $279,000
$271,000
$265,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Med
ian Price
Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
5.6 %
3.9 %
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 8
Region 2015 Q4 2016 Q4
Central 220,000 229,500 4.5%
Eastern 205,000 210,000 2.4%
Hampton Roads 219,000 227,500 3.9%
Northern 396,000 400,000 1.0%
Southside 89,900 95,750 6.5%
Southwest 119,700 117,950 ‐1.5%
Valley 180,000 195,000 8.3%
West Central 160,750 166,500 3.6%
Other 80,000 78,500 ‐1.9%
ALL of Virginia $255,175 $265,000 3.9%
Median sales price increased year‐over‐year in every region except the Southwest. There were
particularly strong price gains in the Southside and Valley regions.
Regional Changes in Median Sales Price 2015 Q4 vs. 2016 Q4
+6.5 %
+3.6 %
‐1.5 %
+4.5 %
+8.3 %
1.0%
+3.9 %
+2.4 %
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 9
This graph represents the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter
for the last four years. The volume of real estate sold in the fourth quarter of 2016 rose by 8.9
percent year‐0ver‐year, from $7.830 billion to $8.527 billion. Volume is amplified year‐over‐year by
increases in both price and the number of transactions.
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Billions of dollars of resien
tial sales
Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B)Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
8.9 %
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 10
Annual volume for 2016 rose 8 percent year‐over‐year to $37.916 billion, over $35.095 billion for all
of 2015. 2016 annual volume was 20.7 percent higher than for 2014 ($31.425 billion). This chart
indicates clearly that for each quarter of 2016, volume exceeded performance for the
corresponding quarter in 2015, just as each quarter of 2015 exceeded the benchmarks of 2014. The
continued improvement over prior year quarterly comparisons illustrates sustained growth and
market strength.
$5.580 $5.410 $6.247 $6.475
$9.964 $9.553$10.789 $11.941
$9.334 $9.056
$10.228$10.973
$6.958 $7.405
$7.830
$8.527
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2013 2014 2015 2016
Billions
Annual Sales Volume by QuarterSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
$31.425
8.0 %
$34.095
$37.916
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 11
Year‐0ver‐year home sales increased in every price category except the lowest ($0 to $100K), where
restricted inventory limits the number of sales possible. Growth was particularly strong in the
ranges from $300k to $500k.
2,370
6,268
6,669
4,367
2,622
2,790
717
505
2,473
6,269
5,988
3,878
2,301
2,583
694
453
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
0 ‐ $100K
$100K ‐ $200K
$200K ‐ $300K
$300K ‐ $400K
$400K ‐ $500K
$500K ‐ $750K
$750 K ‐ $1M
$1 M+
Price Ran
ge
Price Distribution of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
2015‐Q4 2016‐Q4
NO CHANGE
9.0%
23.8%
25.3%
16.6%
10.0%
10.6%
2.7% 1.9%
Market Share for Price Bands
0 ‐ $100K
$100K ‐ $200K
$200K ‐ $300K
$300K ‐ $400K
$400K ‐ $500K
$500K ‐ $750K
$750 K ‐ $1M
$1 M+
‐4.2 %
11.4 %
12.6 %
14.0 %
8.0%
3.3 %
11.5 %
Because sales in ranges
below $750,000 represent
the vast majority of
transactions in Virginia, they
are the clearest indicator of
market performance. The
highest number of
transactions by price band in
2016 Q4 happened in the
$200k to $300k range.
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 12
The average number of days on the market in the fourth quarter of 2016 decreased from the same
quarter last year by 10.4 percent. Declining days on the market reflect sustained demand and
reaction to the prospect of rate increases, as buyers continue to transact with urgency. Typical of
industry seasonality, average time on the market lengthened from the third quarter to the fourth.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Average Days on the Market
Average Days on the MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
‐ 10.4 %
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 13
The changes in the pace of Virginia home sales in the fourth quarter tracked the changes in the
pace of sales in the United States as a whole.
Virginia median price changes were similar to the changes in the median of existing‐home sales
prices nationally for the fourth quarter of 2016. Both Virginia and the United States as a whole
showed moderate increase in median price year‐0ver‐year.
*Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as
reported by the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.
8,851
437,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Aug‐15 Oct‐15 Dec‐15 Feb‐16 Apr‐16 Jun‐16 Aug‐16 Oct‐16 Dec‐16
Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS‐Reported Home Sales*) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)
80,000
130,000
180,000
230,000
280,000
330,000
Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Feb‐16 Mar‐16 Apr‐16 May‐16 Jun‐16 Jul‐16 Aug‐16 Sep‐16 Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16
Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceUNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*) VIRGINIA (All MLS‐Reported Home Sales*)
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 14
The Virginia unemployment rate rose in the fourth quarter to seasonally‐adjusted 4.2 percent, on
par with the fourth quarter of 2015. Virginia unemployment continues to track below the national
average. Low unemployment is correlated with bolstered consumer confidence.
5.3% 5.3%5.1%
4.9% 4.8%
4.5%
4.2% 4.2% 4.1%
3.7%3.9%
4.2%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
2014‐Q1 2014‐Q2 2014‐Q3 2014‐Q4 2015‐Q1 2015‐Q2 2015‐Q3 2015‐Q4 2016‐Q1 2016‐Q2 2016‐Q3 2016‐Q4
Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 15
After multiple quarters of reduced average rates, average 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage
interest rates increased notably in the fourth quarter of 2016. With more intense anticipation of a
hike by the Federal Reserve Bank in the key rate, and then its actual announcement in December,
rates rose relatively steeply from October to November and again through the final two months of
the year. Both the 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest rates ended the year at their highest
points since the fourth quarter of 2015.
4.30%4.36%
4.23%4.14%
3.97%
3.72%3.83%
3.95%3.90%
3.74%
3.59%
3.45%
3.81%
3.00%
3.40%
3.80%
4.20%
4.60%
2013‐Q4 2014‐Q2 2014‐Q4 2015‐Q2 2015‐Q4 2016‐Q2 2016‐Q4
Average 30‐Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac
3.35%3.40%
3.32%3.27%
3.18%
3.01%3.06%
3.15% 3.13%3.03%
2.85%2.75%
3.07%
2.20%
2.40%
2.60%
2.80%
3.00%
3.20%
3.40%
3.60%
2013‐Q4 2014‐Q2 2014‐Q4 2015‐Q2 2015‐Q4 2016 Q2 2016 Q4
Average 15‐Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac
2016 Fourth Quarter
Published by the Virginia REALTORS®
Data recorded January 12, 2016 16
The Virginia REALTORS® association is the largest professional trade association in Virginia,
representing approximately 32,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real
estate business. The Virginia REALTORS® association serves as the advocate for homeownership
and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property
owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate
professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict
code of ethics.
All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to:
Jenny Wortham
Virginia REALTORS®
804‐262‐3755
The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing
services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is
sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.