Virginia Yield Trend
-8.5
+10.7
y = 1.2755x - 2445.3
R2 = 0.0765
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Gra
in Y
ield
, bu
/ac
USDA, NASS, 2008USDA, NASS, 2008
Crop Value to Virginia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Cro
p V
alu
e, M
illi
on
$
USDA, NASS, 2008USDA, NASS, 2008
Virginia Planted Acres
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Pla
nte
d A
cres
, 10
00's
USDA, NASS, 2008USDA, NASS, 2008
December 2008 Corn
CBOT.com 3/12/08CBOT.com 3/12/08
Current Research Topics
Examples
• 3000 lb (DM) of Vetch as a cover crop can produce 80 lb N/ac.
• Cover crop needs to grow until early May to achieve this much DM.
• How much yield do I give up by planting at this later date?
Delayed Planting?
020406080
100120140160180200
Best yield 75%percentile
Median yield 25%percentile
Worst yield
10-May
20-Apr
Mod
eled
Gra
in Y
ield
, bu
/ac 14.2
4.6
The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values
The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values
The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values
The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values
What the Sensor “Sees”What the Sensor “Sees”
Note that the biomass of each plant is observable in NDVI valueNote that the biomass of each plant is observable in NDVI value
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
NDVI
N Application Model
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Pre
sc
rib
ed
N R
ate
, lb
/ac
NDVI
Compare grain yields followingsensor-based, variable-rate Napplications and standard in-season N recommendations for Virginia
Compare grain yields followingsensor-based, variable-rate Napplications and standard in-season N recommendations for Virginia
Large Scale Strip TrialsLarge Scale Strip Trials
The System
• Wheat – 16 Studies
• Corn– 11 Studies
LB N/AC BU/ACSTD 65.6 85.9GS 61.2 85
STD-GS -4.4 -0.8
LB N/AC BU/ACSTD 100 147.9GS 79.1 148.5
STD-GS -20.9 0.7
y = 0.0014x + 110.37
R2 = 0.6138
y = 0.0021x + 82.01
R2 = 0.8312
y = -0.0003x + 154.31
R2 = 0.4189y = 0.0009x + 120.08
R2 = 0.3072
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 37000 39000
Plants/ac
Yie
ld, b
u/a
c
15 Inch 20 Inch 30 Inch Twin 30 Inch
Price Paid to Farmers/Bu Corn
USDA, NASS, 2008USDA, NASS, 2008
Corn is king -- and therefore a growing problem
– Increasing dependence on the grain leaves the U.S. vulnerable to drought-induced price spikes in food and fuel.
•Jerry Hirsch, Los Angeles Times
March, 2008
Rick Tolman, NCGARick Tolman, NCGA
Rick Tolman, NCGARick Tolman, NCGA
• In January, China levied export tariffs of 5% for corn, rice and soybeans and 20% for wheat to keep grains from leaving the country.
• The Russian government has increased grain export tariffs by 40% - Jan 30, 2008
• Argentina and other nations also are placing tariffs on grain exports to protect their food supplies.
NCGANCGA
Corn Nutrient Efficiency
0.61
1.331.05
0.84
2.1
1.65
1.03
2.89
2.49
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium
Bu
shel
s o
f G
rain
/ lb
Fer
tiliz
er
1980
1990
2005
World Wheat Production
Versatile, with excellent milling and baking
characteristics for pan bread, HRW is also a
choice wheat for Asian noodles, hard rolls, flat breads, general purpose flour and as an improver
for blending.
The aristocrat of wheat when it comes to
"designer" wheat foods like hearth breads, rolls, croissants, bagels and
pizza crust, HRS is also a valued improver in flour
blends.
Versatile, with excellent milling and baking
characteristics for pan breads, general purpose flour and as an improver
for blending.
Hardest of all wheats, durum has a rich amber
color and high gluten content. I t sets the "gold standard" for premium
pasta products, couscous and some Mediterranean
breads.
The newest class of U.S. wheat, HW receives
enthusiastic reviews when used for Asian noodles,
whole wheat or high extraction applications,
pan breads and flat breads.
A low moisture wheat with high extraction rates,
providing a whiter product for exquisite cakes,
pastries, and Asian-style noodles, SW is also ideally suited to Middle Eastern
flatbreads.
US Winter Wheat Production
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Kansa
s
Texas
Was
hingt
on
Oklaho
ma
South
Dak
ota
Colora
do
Nebra
ska
Mon
tana
Virgini
a
Pro
du
ctio
n (
1000
bu
)
24th of 42 States
USDA, NASSUSDA, NASS
Virginia Wheat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Wh
eat
Val
ue
(mil
lio
n $
)
USDA, NASSUSDA, NASS
Virginia Wheat Yield
y = 0.7751x - 1493.2
R2 = 0.6918
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Avg
. Yie
ld, b
u/a
c
USDA, NASSUSDA, NASS
USDA, NASSUSDA, NASS
$ !
World Wheat Stocks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Sto
cks:
Use
Rat
io
ProductionDisappearance
Lowest since 1948
FAOFAO
Future directions for VA
• Increased Value Small Grain Crops– Bread Wheat– Durum Wheat– Other IP Wheat Opportunities
• Strong gluten• Super soft
– Hulless Barley
Survey
What price/bushel level would it take for you to re-introduce wheat on your farm or increase wheat acreage?
6% $3.50-3.75
28% $3.76-4.00
48% $4.01 +
17% Do not plan to grow wheat regardless of price
Wheat Prices, CBOT & KCBOT
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00
01/0
2/19
96
01/0
2/19
97
01/0
2/19
98
01/0
2/19
99
01/0
2/20
00
01/0
2/20
01
01/0
2/20
02
01/0
2/20
03
01/0
2/20
04
01/0
2/20
05
01/0
2/20
06
AVG. of $0.40/bu or more
2006 – ~ 2.2 M bushels of SRW~ 5 M bushels HRW
2007 – ~ 10.5 M bushels/year~ 6 M bushels Durum
Durum and Soft Red Winter Wheat
Durum wheat is over $21 per bushel today!
Hulless Barley
• Higher Starch• Higher Protein• Lower Ash• Lower Fiber
Results: Hulless Versus Hulled Barley Fermentations (No -Glucanase
Added)
Value Hulled Doyce Hulless
Fermentation Sample 7.5 lbs 7.5 lbs
Starch (db) in Grain 50% 59%
%Protein (db) in Grain 10.0 12.8
% B-Glucan (db) in Grain 2.9 3.3
Ethanol Yield (% Theory) 103% + 5% 105% + 5%
Ethanol Conc. in Beer 74 g/l 86 g/l
Ethanol per lb Barley 116 g/lb 137 g/lb
Gallons/Bushel (Theoretical)
1.64 gal/bu (test wt. = 48 lb/bu)
2.27 gal/bu (test wt. = 56 lb/bu
Worldwide Wheat
• Grain Contamination– Pesticide Residue Thresholds– Insects – Disease
• End-use Quality
• GMO Wheat
GMO Wheat
• 2002-2003
• Roundup Ready - Hard Red Spring Wheat
• NAWG claims markets will be lost
• June 2004 – Monsanto withdraws application
• Segregation
GMO Wheat – Current & Future
• Roundup Ready– Monsanto– Approved in US but withdrawn due to industry
concerns• Fusarium Head Blight Resistance
– Syngenta– Field trials complete, not submitted for approval– Available 2013 ?
• Drought?• Grain Quality?• Nitrogen Efficiency?
W. Wilson, NDSU
Current Position
• Sherman Reese, former president of NAWG and an Oregon wheat commissioner
"My take is there is not a lot of concern about biotech wheat. The concern is that there is wheat at all," he said.
Questions?
• Is this a “knee-jerk” to current low supply?
• Will wheat production and quality improve with the additions of GM traits?
• How will our trading partners react?
• Does farmer-saved seed make this different from other markets?