MAY 2003VOLUME 13 - NO. 5

1

Figure 3 Figure 4

Figure 1 Figure 2

Figure 5 Figure 6

Commercial Bank Weighted Domestic Interest Rates Feb 2002 - Feb 2003

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

Feb-02

Mar-02

Apr-02

May-02

Jun-02

Jul-02

Aug-02

Sep-02

Oct-02

Nov-02

Dec-02

Jan-03

Feb-03

Months

Per

Cen

t

DepositRate Loan Rate

12-Month Point to Point Inflation RatesFeb 2002 - Feb 2003

-1

2.5

6

9.5

Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-

02

Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02Sep-02 Oct-02Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03

Months

Per

Cen

t

BOJ Net International ReserveFeb 2002 - Mar 2003

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-02

Feb-02

Mar-02

Apr-02

May-02

Jun-02

Jul-02

Aug-02

Sep-02

Oct-02

Nov-02

Dec-02

Jan-03

Feb-03

Mar-03

Months

US

$MN

Money Supply M1Jan 2002 - Feb 2003

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Jan-

02

Feb-

02

Mar-

02

Apr-

02

May-

02

Jun-

02

Jul-

02

Aug-

02

Sep-

02

Oct-

02

Nov-

02

Dec-

02

Jan-

03

Feb-

03

Months

J$M

N

Money Supply (M1) Curr with Public Demand Deposits

Commercial Banks Loans and DepositsJan 2002 - Feb 2003

0.0020000.0040000.0060000.0080000.00

100000.00120000.00140000.00160000.00180000.00200000.00

Jan-

02

Feb-

02

Mar-

02

Apr-

02

May-

02

Jun-

02

Jul-

02

Aug-

02

Sep-

02

Oct-

02

Nov-

02

Dec-

02

Jan-

03

Feb-

03

Months

Loans**

Deposits

Estimated Tourism Expenditure Jan 2002 - Feb 2003

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03

Months

2

1. MONETARY AGGREGATES (J$mn.)Local and Foreign CurrencyMoney Supply (M1)....................................................

(a) Currency with the Public.................................(b) Demand Deposits (adj.)***..............................

Quasi-Money..............................................................(a) Time.................................................................(b) Savings.............................................................

Money Supply (M2)....................................................Domestic Credit (net)..................................................

Local CurrencyMoney Supply (M1)...................................................

(a) Currency with the Public.................................(b) Demand Deposits (adj.)***..............................

Quasi-Money..............................................................(a) Time.................................................................(b) Savings.............................................................

Money Supply (M2)....................................................Domestic Credit (net)..................................................

Base Money................................................................

II. COMMERCIAL BANKS (J$mn.)Assets & Liabilities (J$mn.)**....................................

Loans** .......................................................................Agriculture..............................................................Manufacturing........................................................Construction & Land Development........................Mining.....................................................................Tourism...................................................................Transport, Storage & Communication....................Consumer-Oriented................................................Government Services..............................................Other.......................................................................

DEPOSITS..................................................................Private Sector (including overseas residents).........

Time...................................................................Savings..............................................................Demand.............................................................

Government............................................................Time...................................................................Savings..............................................................Demand.............................................................

Public Entities.........................................................Time...................................................................Savings..............................................................Demand.............................................................

Feb 200342,576.4618,356.5624,219.90

112,495.2529,345.3183,149.94

155,071.71168,640.58

Feb 200336,358.0518,356.5618,001.4972,145.2117,436.1154,709.10

108,503.26150,068.27

Mar 2003*32,499.96

Feb 2003271,166.20

78,393.321,586.783,712.524,113.46

149.797,270.315,703.41

26,776.0925,397.373,683.59

Feb 2003178,114.53149,135.30

34,165.5589,579.2925,390.46

14,769.22717.81

1,436.4212,614.99

6,410.72 2,783.502,292.101,335.12

Feb 200242,941.8916,677.1926,264.70

102,915.9330,205.1272,710.81

145,857.82149,544.16

Feb 200236,305.3616,677.1919,628.1771,423.7520,520.8250,902.93

107,729.11138,437.38

Mar 2002+30,221.45

Feb 2002240,824.40

50,586.271,472.503,298.311,962.17

116.035,313.833,573.90

21,140.6312,197.68

1,511.22

Feb 2002160,174.14138,119.1832,729.3878,238.9627,150.84

10,970.17418.27344.74

10,207.16

5,823.843,733.38

728.191,362.27

% Change p.a.

-0.8510.07-7.799.31

-2.8514.366.32

12.77

0.1510.07-8.291.01

-15.037.480.728.40

7.54

15.05

54.977.76

12.56109.64

29.1036.8259.5926.66

108.21143.75

11.207.984.39

14.49-6.48

34.6371.61

316.6723.59

10.08-25.44214.77

-1.99

Jan 2003+45,308.3918,122.0827,186.31

112,635.7130,361.1882,274.53

157,944.10156,718.58

Jan 2003+38,649.8118,122.0820,527.7372,874.4718,110.7854,763.69

111,524.28138,602.36

Feb 2003 +32,495.01

Jan 2003272,976.25

76,096.751,653.593,586.893,715.30

113.177,102.655,656.15

25,750.7924,189.06

4,329.15

Jan 2003181,773.02151,283.07

35,065.1288,680.2527,537.70

14,544.39625.66

1,371.1512,547.58

6,175.43 3,745.551,204.431,225.45

** Includes provision for loan losses; and excludes loans acquired by FINSAC. *** Excludes Deposits of Government, Public Entities, Financial Institutions and Overseas Residents. * Provisional

+ Revised

3

Feb 20037,799.291,789.611,094.974,914.71

Mar 2003519.55

Feb 200330.59

1.979.310.500.007.85

10.9623.00

Mar 2003

9.45-13.158.50-13.155.00-45.00

8.1824.73

Feb 20039.31

17.44

Apr 2003 -

30.34--

Apr 2003

15.0015.3020.0024.0028.0032.5033.00

Mar 20032.00-4.502.00-4.502.00-6.00

3.25-4.753.50-4.753.50-6.25

8.00-14.00

2.72

Jan 20039,770.131,729.911,684.296,355.93

Feb 2003450.79

Jan 200336.03

2.409.730.680.007.20

16.0223.00

Feb 2003

8.00-13.158.50-13.151.00-38.00

8.5924.73

Jan 20039.00

18.12

Mar 2003 -

33.47--

Mar 2003

15.0015.3020.0024.0033.1534.5035.95

Feb 20032.00-4.502.00-4.502.00-6.00

2.00-4.752.00-4.752.00-6.25

10.00-16.00

3.47

II. COMMERCIAL BANKS (J$mn.) (Cont'd)

Spec. & O. F. Insts..................................................Time.................................................................Savings.............................................................Demand............................................................

Current Account Balances (J$mn.).........................

LIQUIDITY (Average) %Actual Liquid Assets Ratio......................................

Cash.................................................................Deposits with B.O.J.........................................Treasury Bills...................................................Equity Investment Bonds.................................Local Registered Stocks...................................Other................................................................

Statutory Requirement.............................................

III. SELECTED INTEREST RATES (%)COMMERCIAL BANKS (Domestic Currency)

Fixed Deposits (J$100,000 & over)3-6 months..........................................................9-12 months........................................................Call Deposits......................................................

Savings Deposits (average rate)...............................Average Loan Rate..................................................

Weighted Fixed Deposits Rate................................Weighted Loan Rate................................................

G.O.J. Treasury Bills (Weighted Average) Yield 3 Months:........................................................

6 Months:........................................................ 9 Months:........................................................12 Months:........................................................

BOJ Reverse Repurchase Rates (%) 30-Day ..................................................................... 60-Day ..................................................................... 90-Day ..................................................................... 120-Day .................................................................... 180-Day .................................................................... 270-Day .................................................................... 360-Day ....................................................................

COMMERCIAL BANKS (Foreign Currency) Fixed Deposits (Under US$100,000)

1-3 months..........................................................3-6 months..........................................................6-12 months........................................................

Fixed Deposits (US$100,000 & Over)1-3 months..........................................................3-6 months..........................................................6-12 months........................................................

Foreign Currency Loan Rates (%)........................... Foreign Currency Deposit Rates

Savings (average)%..............................................

Feb 20025,260.951,028.90

647.163,584.89

Mar 2002 195.04

Feb 200241.90

1.7010.32

0.470.00

12.3717.0428.00

Mar 2002

7.75-15.007.75-15.00

2.00-8.759.36

26.29

Feb 200210.0519.33

Apr 200213.4313.84

--

Apr 2002

13.2513.3513.4513.5513.8014.2015.00

Mar 20022.00-4.502.00-4.502.00-6.00

2.00-5.002.00-5.702.00-6.25

10.75-18.00

2.89

% Change p.a.

48.2573.9369.2037.10

4

IV. SECURITIES (J$mn.) (outstanding balances)GOJ Local Registered Stock.....................................

BOJ Open Market Operations 1/..............................GOJ Treasury Bills..................................................

V. INSTALMENT CREDIT (J$mn.)(Banks & Near-Banks)Total Credit Outstanding.........................................New Business........................................................

VI. NEAR-BANKS (J$mn.)(Merchant Banks, Trust Com. & Finance Houses)Assets/Liabilties....................................................Loans Outstanding.................................................Total Deposits.......................................................

Loans............................................................Agriculture..........................................................Manufacturing.................................................Construction & Land Development.....................Mining, Quarrying & Processing..................Tourism...........................................................Transport, Storage & Communication..........Consumer Oriented..............................................Government Services...........................................

Other.....................................................................

Liquid Assets Ratio (average) %..................................Statutory Requirement...........................................

VII. BUILDING SOCIETIES (J$mn.)(members & associate members)

Assets/Liabilities..............................................Loan Balances..................................................Savings Funds..................................................

VIII. INFLATIONConsumer Price Index (Jan. 1988 = 100)..............Monthly Rate (%)................................................Calendar Year to Date (%) (point to point)..........Fiscal Year to Date (%) (point to point)..............

IX. ACTUAL PRODUCTION ('000)Bauxite (metric tonnes)....................................Alumina (metric tonnes)...................................Sugar (metric tonnes).......................................Banana (tonnes)................................................

X. STOCK MARKET ACTIVITIESIndex............................................................Volume Traded (mn.)....................................... Ordinary Shares............................................. Block Transactions........................................

Apr 2002101,133.66

4,350.00

Feb 2002

5,682.23433.02

Feb 2002

18,976.733,489.497,489.97

3,489.4932.40

672.94200.95

48.52305.14

55.061,959.89

132.0882.51

Mar 2002110.50

28.00

Feb 2002

51,192.1117,801.7839,122.79

Mar 20021,468.5

0.00.67.6

Mar 2002343.82304.21

39.493.69

Mar 200237,592.97

258.10257.44

0.66

Mar 200386,203.85

2,950.00

Jan 2003

7,168.56531.97

Jan 2003

28,662.524,586.238,666.36

4,586.23112.71614.13502.90

54.88380.19

12.071,842.23

883.18183.94

Feb 2003101.30

23.00

Jan 2003

55,714.2020,287.7143,664.81

Feb 20031,552.2

-0.6-0.95.7

Feb 2003337.49291.01

33.222.78

Feb 200346,447.36

356.56236.66119.90

-14.63 -32.18

29.4911.85

58.5942.1816.84

42.18220.59

-8.96175.7013.5443.27

-66.494.69

581.87176.20

8.7915.9511.01

6.20

-7.475.421.77

-24.66

24.982.76

-48.6420,051.52

Apr 200386,331.202,950.00

Feb 2003

7,357.74484.32

Feb 2003

30,095.834,961.498,751.52

4,961.49103.87612.65554.01

55.09437.16

18.452,051.75

900.62227.89

Mar 2003195.40

23.00

Feb 2003

55,691.4820,641.0143,431.36

Mar 20031,559.5

0.5-0.46.2

Mar 2003318.13320.71

40.192.78

Mar 200346,981.96

265.22132.22133.00

1/ BOJ Open Market Operations include Reverse Repurchases

Feb 2002217,534.72

Jan 2003242,740.24

Feb 2003249,140.24 14.53

% Change p.a.

5

X. STOCK MARKET ACTIVITIES (cont'd)

Value of Stocks Traded (J$mn.).................................... Ordinary Shares..................................................... Block Transactions................................................Advance/Decline Ratio.............................................

XI. EXTERNAL TRADE (US$mn.)1. EXPORTSa) Major Traditional Exports........................................

Bauxite....................................................................Alumina..................................................................Sugar.......................................................................Bananas...................................................................

b) Other Traditional Exports........................................c) Non-Traditional Exports........................................d) Re-exports...............................................................

General Merchandise Exports........................................

(e) Freezone Exports.....................................................(f) Goods Procured in Port...........................................Total Goods Exports.......................................................

2. IMPORTS(a) Consumer Goods....................................................(b) Raw Materials.........................................................(c) Capital Goods..........................................................General Merchandise Imports........................................

(d) Freezone Imports....................................................(e) Goods Procured in Port...........................................Total Goods Imports.......................................................

Trade Balance.................................................................Memo:

Caricom Exports.....................................................Caricom Imports......................................................Caricom Trade Balance...........................................

XII. TOURISM

Tourist Arrivals ('000)....................................................Stopovers.............................................................Cruise..................................................................Armed Forces...............................................................

Cumulative Expenditure (US$mn.)................................

XIII. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (US$mn.) Balance of Payments (Calendar)

1. Current Account...................................................A. Goods balance................................................

Exports (f.o.b.)..............................................Imports (f.o.b.)..............................................

B. Service Balance..............................................Transportation...........................................Travel........................................................Other Services............................................

Jan-Sept 2001

677.5773.07

520.1770.5013.8356.45

206.4818.84

959.34

147.8126.70

1,133.85

704.991,362.51

446.112,513.61

109.3729.10

2,652.08

-1,518.23

37.58332.43

-294.85

Jan-Feb 2002

358.31190.11168.20

-193.30

Jan-Sept 2001-499.8

-1,148.41,133.92,282.3

350.1-177.5828.8

-301.2

Jan-Sept 2002

591.1376.00

435.5666.1513.4260.31

169.9115.52

836.87

130.9323.40

991.20

777.891,329.48

490.472,597.84

80.4827.00

2,705.32

-1,714.12

35.96283.06

-247.10

Jan-Feb 2003

448.05212.76235.29

-215.60

Jan-Sept 2002-716.6

-1,329.5991.2

2,320.7

230.1-200.1695.5

-265.3

Change

-86.442.93

-84.61-4.35-0.413.86

-36.57-3.32

-122.47

-16.88-3.30

-142.65

72.90-33.0344.3684.23

-28.29-2.1053.24

-195.89

-1.62-49.37-47.75

% Change

25.0511.9139.89

-11.54

Change-216.8-181.1-142.7

38.4

-120.0-22.6

-133.335.9

714.32712.99

1.3330/2

2,956.231,474.841,481.39

10/22

1,368.131,029.69

338.4411/21

91.5344.42

25,346.62

Mar 2002 Feb 2003 Mar 2003 % Change p.a.

6

Change

-7.25.9

-13.1

91.5-12.7104.2

216.8-0.2-0.2-1.91.70.0

217.0-364.5-139.1

-243.9-230.6-119.7110.9

-71.8-18.3-70.917.4

-12.27.5

-19.7

70.7 -1.8

72.5

243.91.71.7

-0.21.90.0

242.2-301.6

-39.1

Balance of Payments (Calendar) (Cont'd)

C. Income................................................................Compensation of Employees...........................Investment Income..........................................

D. Current Transfers.............................................Official......................................................Private.......................................................

2. Capital and Financial Account..................................A. Capital Account................................................

Capital Transfers.............................................Official..................................................Private...................................................

Acq./Disp. of non-produced non-fin. assets....

B. Financial Account..............................................Other Official Investment.............................Other Private Investment.............................. (incl. errors & omissions)Reserves................................................

Balance of Payments (Fiscal)1. Current Account.................................................

A. Goods balance.............................................Exports (f.o.b.)............................................Imports (f.o.b.)..............................................

B. Service Balance..............................................Transportation...........................................Travel........................................................Other Services............................................

C. Income.........................................................Compensation of Employees........................Investment Income..........................................

D. Current Transfers.........................................Official......................................................Private.......................................................

2. Capital and Financial Account......................................A. Capital Account.............................................

Capital Transfers.............................................Official..................................................Private...................................................

Acq./Disp. of non-produced non-fin. assets

B. Financial Account.......................................Other Official Investment.........................Other Private Investment..........................

(incl. errors & omissions)Reserves................................................Government Reserves.........................

Jan-Sept2001

-336.541.9

-378.4

635.0 52.6 582.4

499.8 -18.0 -18.0 2.1 -20.1 0.0

517.8 384.7 700.3

-567.2

Apr-Sept2001/2002

-319.9-730.2773.5

1,503.7

196.7-126.2510.2

-187.3

-210.037.7

-247.7

423.631.0

392.6

319.9-12.9-12.9

0.3-13.2

0.0

332.8269.7313.5

-250.40.0

Jan-Sept2002

-343.7 47.8-391.5

726.5 39.9 686.6

716.6-18.2-18.2 0.2-18.4 0.0

734.8 20.2561.2

153.4

Apr-Sept 2002/2003

-563.8 -960.8

653.81,614.6

124.9-144.5439.3

-169.9

-222.245.2

-267.4

494.329.2

465.1

563.8-11.2-11.2

0.1-11.3

0.0

575.0-31.9352.6

254.30.0

7

() Exclude deposits in "B" accounts ** Indicative Rates

XIV. BOJ NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(US$mn.)

BOJ Net International Reserves (US$mn.)................Gross Foreign Assets..............................................Gross Foreign Liabilities........................................

Estimated Gross Reserves in Weeks of Imports..........Estimated Gross Reserves in Weeks of Goods and

Services Imports...........................................................

XV. FOREIGN EXCHANGEDEVELOPMENTS (US$mn.)

Combined Foreign Exchange TradingForeign Exchange Purchases (spot)............................Foreign Exchange Sales (spot)...................................

Foreign Currency Deposit Balances of AuthorisedDealers (US$mn.) ()

Commercial Banks Balances..................................."A" Accounts........................................................Other.....................................................................

F.I.As Balance.........................................................."A" Accounts........................................................Other.....................................................................

Building Societies Balances....................................."A" Accounts........................................................Other ....................................................................

Total Foreign Currency Deposits (US$mn.)............

Total Foreign Currency Loans (US$mn.)................Commercial Banks................................................F.I. As ...................................................................Building Societies.................................................

Mar. 2002

1,941.672,000.33

58.6635.20

23.77

Mar 2002

716.28726.68

Mar 2002

1,000.2553.41

946.84

91.159.56

81.59

148.1599.4748.68

1,239.55

384.12340.2831.7712.07

Mar 2003

1,339.671,382.15

42.4822.36

14.97

Mar 2003

755.74770.78

Mar. 2003

1,204.8782.04

1,122.83

118.0432.8885.16

177.05121.29

55.76

1,499.96

596.99530.04

53.2513.70

%Change p.a.

-31.00-30.90-27.58

5.516.07

20.4653.6018.59

29.50243.93

4.38

19.5121.9414.54

21.01

55.4255.7767.6113.50

Feb 2003

1,252.941,299.30

46.3621.02

14.08

Feb 2003

879.77857.47

Feb. 2003

1,120.5081.13

1,039.37

123.1132.1590.96

177.44122.21

55.23

1,421.05

589.48516.92

58.3714.19

London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) Eurodollars (%) 3 months............................................................. 6 months.............................................................

U.S. Prime Rate (end of period) (%)..........................

Selling Exchange Rates (end period) US$1.00 = J$...................................................... Can. $1.00 = J$................................................... U.K. Pound = J$................................................. Euro = J$**........................................................

Caricom Selling Exchange Rates** T.T. $1 = J$......................................................... Bdos. $1 = J$...................................................... Guy. $1 = J$........................................................ E.C. $1 = J$........................................................

Mar 2002

2.032.334.75

April 200247.9130.4569.0843.61

7.8524.220.26

17.94

Feb 2003

1.341.344.25

Mar 200356.2437.4887.4161.87

9.1428.380.30

21.02

Mar 2003

1.291.274.25

April 200357.3139.6091.1064.62

9.3028.90

0.3021.41

8

INFLATIONMARCH 2003

The All Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5 per cent in March 2003,marginally above the Bank’s projection. This outturn brought inflation for the FY 2002/03to 6.2 per cent, 1.4 percentage points less than that which obtained in the similar period of2001/02. Similarly, the mean annual inflation rate was 6.5, relative to the 7.5 per cent recordedat March 2002. (Table 1).

The inflation in March, was largely due to the Housing & Other Housing Expenses sub-index, which increased by 1.9 per cent and contributed 34.3 per cent to the overall infla-tion. Of note is the fact that the contribution was much greater than its weight of 7.9 percent. Other inflationary impulses of note were registered in the Fuels & Other HouseholdSupplies (1.3%), Healthcare & Personal Expenses (0.7%) and Transportation (0.7%). sub-indices. These groups contributed 16.3 per cent, 11.5 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively,to the overall inflation.

The increase in the Housing & Other Housing Expenses sub-category emanated mainlyfrom the expected increases in both the Other Housing Expenses and Rental sub-groups.The indexes of these sub-groups increased by 2.0 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively(see Table 2). The increase in the Other Housing Expenses sub-index largely reflected anupward movement in the utility rates for water (1.6%), and electricity (4.4%). Additionalimpulses were reflected in the prices of cement, lumber and steel (see Table 4).

The expansion in the Fuels & Other Household Supplies sub-index of 1.3 per cent wasprimarily attributable to a 2.0 per cent increase in the Fuels sub-group. The movement inthis sub-group was largely the result of higher prices for cooking gas in all regions and a 3.8per cent increase in the price of kerosene in the Other Towns region. To a lesser extent, a 0.4per cent increase in the household supplies sub-index, contributed to the expansion in thegroup.

The upturn in the Transportation sub-category resulted primarily from increases inairfares and petroleum prices. These increases largely reflected recent upward trends in worldoil prices. The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of crude has experienced anaverage monthly increase of 4.9 per cent since January 2003.

At the regional level, all areas reported an increase in its overall index for the month. TheCPI in the KMA increased by 0.3 per cent, while the index for the Other Towns andRural Areas rose by 0.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively. The inflation in the threeregions was influenced mainly by the Housing & Other Housing Expenses sub-index, whichincreased by 1.8 per cent, in the KMA, and 2.0 per cent in the Other Towns and Rural Areas,respectively.

The measure of inflation that excludes agricultural prices (CPI-A) was 0.79 per cent forMarch. This estimate was 0.19 percentage point above the measure in the previous month and0.61 percentage point above that which obtained in March 2002. It is note worthy that thisindex has been exhibiting a general upward trend since the beginning of the calendar year.

9

For the March quarter, the measure of inflation without agriculture was 2.0 per cent relative toa deflation of 0.4 in the overall index. This measure is also higher relative to the 1.6 per cent inMarch 2002. This is illustrating the effect of the oil prices and exchange rate movements onthe other items in the basket.

Prices of durable products have edged up since the beginning of the calendar year. Thismovement has been influenced by the depreciation in the exchange rate since the Decem-ber 2002 quarter. However, the movement in the prices of durables, which has a high importcontent, has been smaller relative to the movement in the exchange rate, indicating a relativelysmall pass-through to prices. In this context, the prices of these commodities could continue toexperience additional impulses over the next few months.

World oil prices had been reflecting an upward trend in recent times. This movement hasbeen mirrored in the changes in a fuel index, which is composed of commodities that aredirectly impacted by movement in the price of oil.

For March, the trimmed mean index was estimated to have increased by 0.54 per cent,0.16 percentage points above the estimate for the previous month (table 5). This estimatebrings core inflation for the FY2002/03 to 4.15 per cent, 0.83 percentage point above thatwhich obtained for FY 2001/02. However, the annual average core inflation rate of 3.26 percent revealed an improvement of 0.9 percentage points relative to the same measure in thecorresponding month of 2002.

10

1998 MarJunSeptDec

1999 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec

2000 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec

2001 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec

2002 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec

2003 Jan Feb Mar

1,115.91,149.21,175.81,185.51,189.91,176.81,182.51,179.91,190.61,205.91,220.41,234.31,237.61,247.51,259.91,265.91,268.11,273.11,281.71,294.41,300.01,311.41,324.01,335.91,349.31,351.11,352.41,342.61,342.91,358.61,365.01,370.81,381.11,404.91,418.71,431.11,442.91,454.91,456.21,460.21,468.81,468.01,468.51,475.91,480.01,492.81,515.61,521.21,528.01,539.21,558.31,566.1

1561.3 1552.2 1559.5

1,110.11,132.71,170.91,176.91,182.91,184.11,183.11,179.71,184.31,192.11,205.61,220.21,230.71,239.81,248.31,257.71,264.61,269.01,274.31,283.01,292.01,301.91,311.81,323.71,336.41,345.41,350.91,348.71,345.91,348.01,355.51,364.81,372.31,385.61,401.61,418.31,430.91,443.01,451.31,457.11,461.71,465.61,468.41,470.81,474.81,482.91,496.11,509.91,521.61,529.51,541.81,554.5

1561.9 1559.9 1557.7

0.761.790.111.050.37

-1.100.48

-0.220.911.291.201.140.270.800.990.480.170.390.680.990.430.880.960.901.000.130.10

-0.720.021.170.470.420.751.730.980.870.820.830.090.270.59

-0.050.030.500.280.861.530.370.450.731.240.50

-0.31 -0.58 0.47

1.522.982.310.821.520.31

-0.25-0.841.171.983.433.672.632.222.072.291.651.051.252.072.112.322.292.762.892.051.24

-0.50-0.610.461.672.081.652.933.503.632.702.551.751.200.960.810.570.48

0.821.652.692.79

2.361.562.442.49

1.44 -0.39 -0.42

8.8210.148.427.857.516.265.975.375.464.934.995.095.266.437.396.786.578.188.399.709.198.758.498.239.038.307.346.065.906.726.505.906.247.137.157.136.947.687.688.769.388.057.587.677.166.256.83

6.295.90

5.807.017.25

6.30 5.74 6.20

9.069.219.288.638.488.308.067.797.537.106.676.286.025.966.035.955.886.046.256.616.927.247.537.798.108.258.258.178.117.987.827.517.277.147.036.946.786.736.766.997.287.397.487.62

7.697.617.58

7.517.417.257.207.08

6.83 6.64 6.52

12Month #

%change

12Month*

%change

3 Month #%

change

3 Month*%

change

Monthly%

change

3 MonthAVG.C.P.I.

1/C.P.I.

Table 1JAMAICA: INFLATION RATES

1.122.043.380.520.740.880.52

-0.260.020.772.203.033.242.832.312.192.001.661.311.461.812.172.242.462.652.562.050.920.04

-0.210.501.401.802.222.703.353.272.952.331.831.300.990.780.620.620.99

1.722.382.612.232.122.16

2.12 1.17 0.20

1/ January 1998 = 100# Moving average* Point to pointSource: STATIN

11

FOOD & DRINKMeals away from homeMeat Poultry & FishDairy Products Oils & FatsBaked Products Cereals & Breakfast DrinkStarchy FoodsVegetables & FruitsOther Food & Beverages

FUELS & OTHER HOUSEHOLD SUPPLIES

Household SuppliesFuels

HOUSING & OTHER HOUSING EXPENSES

RentalOther Housing Expenses

HOUSEHOLD FURNISHINGS & FURNITURE

FurnitureFurnishings

HEALTHCARE & PERSONAL EXPENSES

PERSONAL CLOTHING FOOTWEAR & ACCESSORIES

Clothing MaterialsReadymade Clothing & AccessoriesFootwearMaking & Repairs

TRANSPORTATION

MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES

ALL GROUPS

Weight inthe CPI

MonthlyInflation

(%)WeightedInflation

Table 2COMPONENT CONTRIBUTION TO INFLATION

March 2003

0.55630.07410.16130.0668

0.08640.05250.06500.0502

0.07350.04820.0253

0.07860.02090.0577

0.02830.00680.0215

0.0697

0.05070.00550.02420.01590.0051

0.0644

0.0785

1.0000

0.11.50.81.2

0.5 -1.5-4.40.7

1.30.42.0

1.91.22.0

1.52.51.1

0.7

0.40.00.30.41.0

0.7

0.3

0.46

0.02880.11010.12260.0808

0.0441-0.0763-0.28890.0364

0.06970.01870.0510

0.14240.02500.1174

0.03980.01670.0231

0.0478

0.01860.00000.00690.00680.0048

0.0443

0.0236

0.41

6.66.6.6.926.529.619.5

10.6-18.4

--69.68.8

16.84.5

12.3

34.36.0

28.3

9.64.05.6

11.5

4.50.01.71.61.2

10.7

5.7

100.0

% Contribution to Inflation

12

Table 3REGIONAL INFLATION

March 2003

Rural(%)

OtherTowns

(%)KMA(%)

FOOD & DRINKMeals away from homeMeat Poultry& FishDairy Products Oils & FatsBaked Products Cereals & Breakfast DrinkStarchy FoodsVegetables & FruitsOther Food & Beverages

FUELS & OTHER HOUSEHOLD SUPPLIES

Household SuppliesFuels

HOUSING & OTHER HOUSING EXPENSES

RentalOther Housing Expenses

HOUSEHOLD FURNISHINGS & FURNITURE

FurnitureFurnishings

HEALTHCARE & PERSONAL EXPENSES

PERSONAL CLOTHING FOOTWEAR & ACCESSORIES

Clothing MaterialsReadymade Clothing & AccessoriesFootwearMaking & Repairs

TRANSPORTATION

MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES

ALL GROUPS

0.33.91.1

1.00.8

-0.2-5.5-0.5

0.90.51.2

2.01.02.1

2.52.82.4

0.5

0.40.00.10.12.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.21.21.01.8

0.5-2.2-3.60.5

1.80.82.5

2.01.02.1

1.03.00.2

1.0

0.80.00.71.30.5

1.0

0.6

0.7

-0.20.40.41.1

0.3-3.5-3.91.9

1.30.12.5

1.81.22.0

0.81.60.5

0.7

0.20.00.20.20.0

0.6

0.0

0.3

13

Pt to Pt Average

12-Mth CoreActual CoreFiscal Year to Date

ActualMonthly

Core

-0.220.911.291.201.140.270.800.990.480.170.390.68

0.990.430.880.960.901.000.130.10

-0.720.021.170.47

0.420.751.730.980.870.820.830.090.270.59

-0.050.03

0.50 0.28 0.86 1.53 0.37 0.45 0.731.240.50

Table 4INFLATION: ACTUAL & CORE

1999/2000

AprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMar

2000/01AprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMar

2001/02AprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMar

2002/03AprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDecJanFebMar

0.010.410.440.640.560.170.230.320.350.110.370.35

0.500.270.340.290.520.420.370.280.160.130.850.22

0.140.500.350.440.390.280.340.150.130.350.150.06

0.280.19 0.390.30 0.240.21 0.280.550.34

0.37 0.38 0.54

-0.220.681.983.214.384.665.506.557.057.247.668.39

0.991.432.323.304.235.275.415.524.754.776.006.50

0.421.182.933.944.855.716.596.686.977.607.557.58

0.50 0.781.653.213.594.054.826.126.65

6.32 5.70 6.20

0.010.420.861.502.072.242.472.803.163.273.654.01

0.500.771.111.401.922.352.723.013.183.314.194.41

0.140.651.001.441.842.122.462.612.753.113.263.32

0.280.470.861.161.411.621.902.472.82

3.20 3.59 4.15

2.562.602.632.812.972.973.103.283.213.033.744.01

4.524.384.273.913.874.134.274.234.034.054.554.41

4.044.294.304.464.334.184.154.013.984.223.493.32

3.463.143.183.04 2.89 2.82 2.763.183.39

3.41 3.65 4.15

4.584.404.224.063.893.713.563.473.433.363.303.33

3.243.393.533.623.693.793.893.974.034.124.184.22

4.184.174.174.224.264.264.254.234.234.244.154.06

4.013.913.823.703.583.473.353.293.24

3.17 -0.31 -0.58 0.47

3.19 3.26