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Vorstand
EMB Mechanical engineering 30. september 2010 to 01.10.2010
Kerstin Warneke, FB Wirtschaft – Technologie – Umwelt, Maschinenbau
Mechanical engineering in the EU 27The Crisis and Challenges of the future
Sources:
• IG Metall, FB Wirtschaft - Technologie – Umwelt
• Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
• Eurostat
• Ifo-Institut (Ifo) Stand: 30.09.2010
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 2
Background information about mechanical engineering
The crisis in 2009
The Pick-up in 2010
Future beyond 2011
Contents
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 3
Background
information
about mechanical engineering in the EU
Part 1
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Part 0: Background information about mechanical engineering
two basic characteristics of mechanical engineering:
concentrated in the EU 27 in • Germany, • Italy, • France, • United Kingdom,• Spain
heterogenous branche• many different products• large-scale production in many cases not paying off• many small enterprises
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 5
0,00,00,10,10,20,30,30,4
0,50,60,7
1,31,62,02,02,12,1
3,43,43,8
4,79,1
9,615,8
36,9
0,4
0,0CyprusLatvia
EstoniaLithania
LuxembourgBulgariaGreece
SlovakiaRomaniaSlovenia
IrelandPortugalHungaryNorway
Czech RepublicBelgium
PolandDenmark
FinlandAustria
NetherlandsSweden
SpainUnited Kingd.
FranceItaly
Germany
Source: Eurostat
Distribution of Gross Value Added in mechanical engineering in the EU 27 in 2007
fraction, figures as percentage
Part 1: Background information
Mechanical engineering is concentrated in the EU in Germany, Italy, F, UK, E
76 %
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 6
Part 1: Background information
Mechanical engineering consists of many small branches
Subbranches of mechanical engineering in the
EU 27gross value added in 2007, fraction as percentage
2,53,2
4,0
4,9
5,4
5,4
5,6
6,2
7,37,6
8,9
10,4
10,8
11,30,8
1,4
1,31,11,8
Manufacture of non-electric domestic appliances
Manufacture of furnaces and furnace burners
Manufacture of machinery for paper and paperboardproduction
Manufacture of machinery for metallurgy
Manufacture of machinery for textile, apparel andleather production
Manufacture of weapons and ammunition
Manufacture of machinery for food, beverage andtobacco processing
Manufacture of engines and turbines, except aircraft,vehicle and cycle engines
Manufacture of agricultural and forestry machinery
Manufacture of taps and valves
Manufacture of electric domestic appliances
Manufacture of machinery for mining, quarrying andconstruction
Manufacture of bearings, gears, gearing and drivingelements
Manufacture of pumps and compressors
Manufacture of non-domestic cooling and ventilationequipment
Manufacture of machine-tools (split into DK2941,DK2942 and DK2943 in NACE Rev.1.1)
Manufacture of lifting and handling equipment
Manufacture of other general purpose machineryn.e.c.
Manufacture of other special purpose machineryn.e.c.Quelle: Eurostat
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Part 1: Background information
SME are typical for mechanical engineering
Number of Enterprises in mechanical engineering as percentage in 1997
86
14
96
5
92
8
90
10
97
3
up to 250 employees over 250 employees
Germany Italy France UK Spain
Source: Eurostat
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 8
Background information about mechanical engineering
Policy for SME
The crisis in 2009
The Pick-up in 2010
Future beyond 2011
Contents
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 9
Background information about mechanical engineering
The crisis in 2009
The Pick-up in 2010
Future beyond 2011
Contents
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 10
Year 2009
worldwide financial and economic crisis• worldwide stop of investmens
mechanical engineering:
worldwide simultanous break-down of turnover and production
time-delayed decrease of employment
Part 2
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Worldwide GDP:The worldwide financial and economic crisis of 2009
Real growth of worldwide productionchange rate against previous year in percent
4,7
2,2
2,9
3,6
4,94,5
5,1 5,2
3,0
-0,6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Source: IWF, july 2010
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 12
Effects on mechanical engineering in the EU 27
Mechanical Engineering 2008 2009
new order - 5,3 % - 30,3 %
production + 1,3 % - 26,0 %
turnover + 21,3% - 24,0 %
employment + 2,2% - 5,1 %
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 13
Production of mechanical engineering in the EU 27 index, seasonally adjusted, 2005 = 100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q1
Source: Eurostat
Production of mechanical engineering
peak to low: decrease -30%
122,3 (1. Qt. 08)
108,3 (2006)
-30%
85,6 (2. Qt. 09)
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 14
all branches of mechanical engineering
Downturn hits … (change rates yoy)
all countries of the EU 27
-13,8
-17,5
-19,8
-21,2
-21,5
-22,6
-22,7
-26,0
-28,7
-30,7
-31,8
-33,1
-33,3
-34,1
-36,7
-36,9
-54,2
-13,6
-27,4
machinery for food, beverage and tobaccoprocessing
machinery for metallurgy
other general-purpose machinery n.e.c.
other taps and valves
other pumps and compressors
engines and turbines, except aircraft, vehicleand cycle engines
ovens, furnaces and furnace burners
non-domestic cooling and ventilationequipment
machinery and equipment
plastic and rubber machinery
other special-purpose machinery n.e.c.
lifting and handling equipment
agricultural and forestry machinery
bearings, gears, gearing and drivingelements
machinery for textile, apparel and leatherproduction
metal forming machinery and machine tools
fluid power equipment
machinery for mining, quarrying andconstruction
office machinery and equipment
Production in the branches of mechanical engineeringchange rate 2009 against 2008 as percentage
-1,6-3,7-3,9
-5,4-5,6
-9,6-10,4
-11,0-11,1-11,3
-12,6-13,4
-14,8-15,1-15,5
-16,7-18,6
-20,9-21,0
-21,5-22,2-22,7
-24,3-28,2
-30,7-35,9
-37,6-46,6
TurkeyCroatiaPoland
SloveniaItaly
MaltaSlovakia
LuxembourgHungary
FranceRomania
LatviaEstoniaAustriaCyprusFinland
Czech RepublicBulgaria
IrelandPortugalGreece
Euro areaNetherlands
SpainUK
SwedenDenmarkGermanyLithuania
Source: Eurostat
Downturn of Production in mechanical engineeringchange 2009 against 2008 in percentage
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Employment in mechanical engineering in the EU 27 index, seasonally adjusted , 2005 = 100
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
10820
07Q
3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
Source: Eurostat
Employment in mechanical engineering:
Decrease of production causes fall of employment
- 11 % (01/2010 to (03/2008)
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Background information about mechanical engineering
The crisis in 2009
The Pick- up in 2010
Future beyond 2011
Contents
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 17
2010
turnover and production• strong growth but
• speed of growth goes down because recovery of europe mainly based on exports recovery in USA looses pace recovery in China looses pace, too
• still lower level than before crisis• growth not everywhere (country, sector)
employment• decrease
Part 3
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Worldwide Economic Activity (of 41 countries): slowdown
Source: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW)
Real GDP
Climate-Index (right scale)
percentage index
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 19
GDP: growing worldwide economy
Real growth of worldwide productionchange rate against previous year in percent
4,7
2,2
2,9
3,6
4,9
4,5
5,1 5,2
3,0
-0,6
4,64,3
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: IWF, july 2010
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 20
GDP: Biggest growth from countries like
China and India
Strongest growth in emerging marketschange rate against previous year in percent
-4,1
1,0 1,3
-2,4
3,32,9
-5,2
2,41,8
-3,2
2,6 2,4 2,5
6,86,4
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
Source: IWF, july 2010
Euro area USA Japan Industrial Emerging countries markets
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Effects on mechanical engineering in the EU 27
2008 2009 1. half 2010
new order - 5,3 % - 30,3 % + 25,0 %
production + 1,3 % - 26,0 % -
turnover + 21,3% - 24,0 % +3,8 %
employment + 2,2% - 5,1 % -10,7%
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Development of growth of New order is gaining speed quarter by quarter despite risks
New order in mechanical engineering in the EU 27 index, seasonally adjusted , 2005 = 100
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
20
00
M0
1
20
01
M0
1
20
02
M0
1
20
03
M0
1
20
04
M0
1
20
05
M0
1
20
06
M0
1
20
07
M0
1
20
08
M0
1
20
09
M0
1
20
10
M0
1
Source: Eurostat
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-0,5
-0,2
0,4
1,1
5,6
5,8
6,4
6,5
7,6
8,8
9,3
12,0
13,8
14,2
14,6
15,4
17,4
24,8
2,2
7,0
-3,5Greece
France
Ireland
Turkey
Poland
Czech Republic
Spain
Bulgaria
Latvia
Austria
Euro area
Netherlands
Germany
EU 27
Romania
Sweden
Estonia
Lithuania
Hungary
United Kingdom
Italy
New order in mechanical engineeringchange rate second quarter 2010 against first quarter 2010 as percentage
Source: EurostatRemark: For Italy 1. quarter of 2010 against 4. quarter of 2009
Development of growth of New order by country (02/2010) vs. (01/2010) nearly everywhere improvement
for Italy change rate 01/2010 against (04/2009)
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 24
Production of mechanical engineering in the EU 27 index, seasonally adjusted, 2005 = 100
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q1
Source: Eurostat
Production of mechanical engineering: growing quickly (yoy), already +8,5% compared to crises,
but still low level
122,3 (1. Qt. 08)
-24%
92,5 (2. Qt. 10)
84,4 + 8,5%(3. Qt. 09)
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 25
Development of growth of Production:growing quarterly, low speed
Growth of Production in mechanical engineering EU 27
seasonally adjusted, change rate as percentage against one quarter before
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1020
07Q
3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
Source: Eurostat
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 26
Productionis growing in comparison to last year
in many branches of mechanical engineering
-2,8
-2,4
-1,4
1,6
1,7
4,4
8,2
9,2
9,8
10,0
13,6
18,5
19,1
25,0
29,7
36,5
62,7
-5,0
9,3
ovens, furnaces and furnace burners
non-domestic cooling and ventilationequipment
metal forming machinery and machine tools
lifting and handling equipment
machinery for food, beverage and tobaccoprocessing
machinery for metallurgy
other general-purpose machinery n.e.c.
machinery and equipment
other special-purpose machinery n.e.c.
agricultural and forestry machinery
other taps and valves
engines and turbines, except aircraft, vehicleand cycle engines
bearings, gears, gearing and drivingelements
other pumps and compressors
office machinery and equipment (exceptcomputers and peripheral equipment)
machinery for mining, quarrying andconstruction
plastic and rubber machinery
fluid power equipment
textile, apparel and leather production
Production in the branches of mechanical engineeringchange rate 2. quarter 2010 against 2 quarter 2009 as percentage
at least in some important countries (Germany, Italy, UK)
Production in mechanical engineeringchange rate of the first half of 2010 against the first half of 2009 in
percentage
10,0
8,0
1,5
-0,8
-3,1
-9,9
UK
Italy
Germany
France
Poland
Spain
Source: Eurostat
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 27
Employment in mechanical engineering in the EU 272005=100
111,6
108,6
106,2107,4
105,8
103,5
100,9100,0
100,8
103,6
105,9
100,6 100,9
94,6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009Q2 2010Q2
Source: Eurostat
Employment of mechanical engineering is still going down (yoy)
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 28
Growth of volume of working time in mechanical engineering
EU 27 seasonally adjusted, change rate as percentage against one quarter before
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
Source: Eurostat
Growth of employment in mechanical engineering EU 27
seasonally adjusted, change rate as percentage against one quarter before
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
200
7Q3
200
7Q4
200
8Q1
200
8Q2
200
8Q3
200
8Q4
200
9Q1
200
9Q2
200
9Q3
200
9Q4
201
0Q1
201
0Q2
Source: Eurostat
Development of growthVolume of working time and employment
negative development comes to an end
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Future beyond 2011
Part 4
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 30
1. Change of climate:
2. Globalization:
4.1 Growing interdisziplinarity
4. Individualization of markets
3. Demographic change
1.3 Rising costs for resources and factors of production
2.1 competition with low cost countries
3.1 Lack of skilled workers
3.2 other goods are demanded
2.2 presence in foreign countries
2.3 developing countries grow with greater force than „old markets“
4.2 Shorter processing times
5. Reduction of public debts mean to less demand which means more competition, too
1.1 Other products 1.2 Other ways of production
Megatrends, that effect mechanical engineering
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 31
Examples how employers may react as a result of the megatrends
2. Liqudity (more and more flexible)
3. Cluster
Cooperations1.1 lower wages
1. cut costs
5. Improve Public Appearance of enterprise
2.1 innovation
3.1 to gain skilled workers
3.2 spend money on workers
2.2 service abroad1.2 push more tasks on employees
1.3 longer working time and more flexible working time
1.4 more temporary work
1.5 employment of workers of low cost countries
4. tax reduction for enterprises
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 32
What the megatrends mean for employees(and what this means unions)
1. higher flexibility:
2. higher physical fitness
4.1 job security 4. less security
3. higher productivity
1.3 knowledge is at every time up to date
1.4 interdisciplinary knowledge
1.5 to pay for the constant eduction on ones own
2.1 to be able to work longer
4.2 income security
5. higher pressure on wages because of low-cost competition
1.1 time flexibility1.2 geographic mobility
- New Working time modells, - against temporary employment, -minimum wages,
- save social standards, - make employers pay for education, …
Examples for Tasks for unions
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 33
Reasons for a special
policy for SME
Part 5
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 34
outside the enterprise
Characteristics of SME...
inside the enterprise
higher
local
dependency
(not typical for
mechanical
engineering)
can‘t survive a price competition
against large scale produciton
• worse access to qualified staff
• no / few personnel policy
• worse employee participation than in GU
• low innovative power
• few research and development
• worse access to money
• ……
lack of (good)
reputation in
other regions
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 35
Possible tasks
1. Förderung von Kooperationen transparente finanzielle Förderung von der Gründung bis zur Erzeugung marktreifer Produkte ?
Reasons for a special policy for SME with regard to the supply side / the enterprise
Characteristis of SME
1. less innovations
less research and development
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Reasons for a special policy for SME in Germany
SME invest less than bigger enterprises in the future
Innovatoren sind Unternehmen, die innerhalb der letzten 3 Jahre zumindest ein Innovationsprojekt erfolgreich abgeschlossen haben. Es muss sich dabei nicht um eine Neuerfindung handeln.
Source: ZEW, Mannheim
industries wit a high proportion of research
other industries service sector with other services high proportion of skill-intensive work
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 37
Reasons for a special policy for SME in Germany
Higher costs for innovations in SME
Innovationsintensität: Anteil des Umsatzes, den ein Unternehmen für Innovationen ausgibt
Source: ZEW, Mannheim
industries wit a high proportion of research
other industries service sector with other services high proportion of skill-intensive work
share of sales for innovations
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 38
Innovations pay off less in SME
Source: ZEW, Mannheim
share of sales caused by new innovative products
reduction of costs caused by innovations of the production process
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 39
Reasons for a special policy for SME
Investment in mechanical engineering in Germany
25 % spent money in research and development only every now and then
49 % don‘t do any research and development
Reason:
- not enough financial power
- innovations are more expensive for SME because of high share of fixed costs for innovative projects
- less profits through innovations
not in times of big changes high risk that SME realise too late what is going on
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 40
Possible tasks
2. steuerliche Forschungsförderung speziell für KMU?
Reasons for a special policy for SME with regard to the supply side / the enterprise
Characteristis of SME
2. not enough equity capital / problems in financing
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 41
Reasons for a special policy for SME
Less equity capital in SME
27,8
20,8
24,3
27,3 28,0
total industry turnover lessthan 2 Mio. €
turnover 1 - 10 Mio. €
turnover 9 - 50 Mio. €
turnover 49 Mio. € and
above
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank
Equity capital in mechanical engineering in Germanyamount of equity capital as proportion of total asset in percentage
SME according toEuropean Commission
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Reasons for a special policy for SME
Least equity capital in non-coporate SME
21,0
14,4
18,0 17,8
21,9
total industry turnover lessthan 2 Mio. €
turnover 1 - 10Mio. €
turnover 9 - 50Mio. €
turnover 49 Mio.€ and above
Source: Deutsche Bundesbank
SME according toEuropean Commission
Equity capital in non-corporate enterprises of mechanical engineering in Germany in 2007
amount of equity capital as proportion of total asset in percentage
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 43
Possible tasks
• gaining of members
• more codetermination
• higher wage-rises according to productivity Tarifbindung der KMU erhöhen
• working time models according to the whishes of workers
Reasons for a special policy for sme
Characteristics of SME
4. worse working conditions
Examples:
• less co-determination und wrights to get informations
• compensation
• longer working time
• more flexibility
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FB Wirtschaft-Technologie-Umwelt, Kerstin Warneke, Tel. 069-6693-2341 Folie 44
Handlungsansätze
• Ausbau der betrieblichen Altersrente
• mehr Weiterbildungsanstrengungen in KMU
• Anspruch auf Mitsprache bei der Weiterbildung
• Vernetzung von Forschung und Bildung
Reasons for a special policy for sme
Characteristika von SME
4. schlechtere Arbeitsbedingungen
Beispiele:
• Soziale Absicherung (Rente)
• Weiterbildung, Ausbildungsmöglichkeit der Beschäftigten
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Policy for the demand-side of the economy through the state
- monetary policy in favour of demand
- rise of wages according to productivity
- against austerity
Reasons for a special policy for sme
Characteristics of SMEs
- depend to higher degree than big enterprises on the demand of the domestic market