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Vulnerability of the Caribbean to Climate Change
The Coastal Zone of Belize
Carlos FullerCaribbean Community
Climate Change Centre (CCCCC)
Projected Temperature Rise
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC
Projected Change in Precipitation
Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990
Impacts of Climate Changein the Caribbean
• US Country Studies Programme
• GFDL, CCC, UKMO, GISS
• Temperature rise (1-2°C)
• Change in rainfall patterns (±10-20%)
• Sea level rise (4-50 cm)
Sea Level Rise
• Erosion• Coastal flooding• Inundation• Saltwater intrusion• Mangroves
• Tourist destinations• Human settlements• Water supply• Agriculture• Aquaculture• Fisheries
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone to Belize
Adapted from a presentation by:Ms. Tanya Williams
The Coastal Zone of Belize
Complex system comprised of:i. the barrier reefii. the three offshore atollsiii. hundreds of patch reefsiv. extensive seagrass bedsv. mangrove forestsvi. >1,000 cayes
The Coastal Zone
• Home to several endangered species such as:
i. the West Indian Manateeii. American crocodileiii. marine turtles and, iv. several birds
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Tourism
• 60% of the estimated 172,300 tourist arrivals in 1999 visited sites in the coastal zone.
• Approx. 7,000 employed in the industry.
• Single largest contributor to Belize’s economic growth.
Branching coral Brain coral
Coral bleaching events are expected to increase
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Fishing• Direct employment 2000
– 3000 employed per year.
• Indirect employment through processing, sales and maintenance.
• Subsistence fishing• In 1999, total financial
value was Bz$19.4 million
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Aquaculture
• Eight farms in operation 3,000 – 4,000 acres on pine ridge coastal lands.
• Generates approximately Bz$62.5 million
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Human Settlements
• Six of the ten major residential centers are located on the coast. (Belize City, San Pedro, Corozal, Dangriga, Punta Gorda, Ladyville)
• 45% of the population resides in coastal areas (1999).
Water Supply
• San Pedro– Desalination plant
• Placencia– Piped across lagoon
• Belize City– Supply located 17 miles inland– During drought, pumping limited to high tide– Salt water intrusion?
AVVA Vulnerability Analysis
• Entire coastline videotaped and analyzed in 1995
• Sea level rise of 4, 30 and 50 cm.
• Time periods of 25,50 and 100 yrs.
• Little impact in 25 yrs
• 50-100% of beaches lost in 100 yrs
Ultimate Adaptation Option
• Belize City destroyed in 1931 and 1961 by hurricanes
• New capital (Belmopan) created 50 miles inland
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Agriculture• Small scale farming on
riparian lands, coastal plains, etc to meet local needs.
• Sugar generated approximately Bz$84.5 million (2000).
• Citrus farming (Mullins River to South Stann Creek) Bz$76 million in 2000.
Picture: Government Press Office
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Agriculture continued• Banana (Sittee, South Stann Creek, Swasey and
Bladden Rivers) Bz$65 million.• Coastal communities of Corozal, Dangriga and
Independence heavily rely on these sectors
Vulnerability Studies in Agriculture
• 1995
• DSSAT
• Beans, corn and rice
• 1-2°C rise in temp
• ± 10-20% change in precip
• Result: 10-20% decline in yields
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Industry and Commerce
• Major centres located in the coastal zone (main centers – Independence, Belize City, Ladyville and the Corozal Commercial Free Zone).
• Employ a national total of approximately 5,600.• Garment industry generated approximately
Bz$40 million in 2000.
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Ports• Three main ports: Belize City, Commerce Bight and
Big Creek.• Commerce Bight – citrus products• Big Creek – banana
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Marine Dredging
• 1999 = 168,010 cubic yards of dredging. Primarily for landfill or for navigational purposes.(State of the Coast Report 1999)
• Most operations are related to tourism or real estate developments. (State of the Coastal Zone Report 1995)
Socio-economic Importance of the Coastal Zone
Oil Drilling• No major commercial fields for oil found.• Exploratory wells have been drilled, both inland and
offshore.
Bioprospecting Exploration and extraction of biological
diversity to be used for genetic and biochemical resources.
Possible multi-million dollar industry
Amendment to Fisheries Act Chapter 210 of 2000 includes bioprospecting.
Requirements/Suggestions
• Downscaling of global climate models• Vulnerability studies of other economically
important crops – bananas, citrus, sugar• Integrated vulnerability studies - salt water
intrusion• Improve data collection
– Topography, bathymetry, microscale monitoring
• Implementation of “no regrets” adaptation measures– IWRM, ICZM, EIA, Disaster mitigation
Other Concerns
• Forestry– 1999-2000– Pine bark beetle infestation– 75% of pine forest destroyed– High temps & high humidity– Poor management– Climate change signal?– Needs analysis– Impacts on timber industry and biodiversity– Contributes to emissions