Extending the scientific discipline of Psychology in order to deal with the complexity of applied practice

David Clarke

School of PsychologyUniversity of Nottingham

WARNING: This talk contains some examples drawn from studies of violent behaviour, including rape.

Part 1Some general points about psychological research and ‘the real world’.

Part 2 A brief ‘tutorial’ on sequence analysis, as an example of these principles.

Point One

On any journey, start from where you are now.

Science Humanaffairs

Experimental psychology

Science Humanaffairs

Experimental psychology

‘Natural psychology’

We have to start from where we are now ... The real world is messy (but not entirely incomprehensible).We have to accept that, and refine our approach gradually towards more precise descriptions.NOT begin with methods that require complete precision and bemoan them for not working properly.

Point Two

Do things in the right order.

Typically research tries to start from descriptions of single cases, and end up with general explanations.There are two steps: combining over instances; and finding the meaningful (causal) patterns.Traditional research aggregates first and then looks for patterns (which are often lost during aggregation).The alternative is to find patterns and explanations case-by-case, and then identify the commonalities.

Data Conclusions

Particular

General

Data Conclusions

Particular

General

Impossible (Psych training)

Data Conclusions

Particular

General

Impossible (Psych training)

Impossible (My claim)

Data Conclusions

Particular

General‘Aristotelian’ Experimental Psychology

Impossible (Psych training)

Impossible (My claim)

Lossof

structure

Data Conclusions

Particular

General‘Aristotelian’ Experimental Psychology

Impossible (Psych training)

Impossible (My claim)

Lossof

structure Impossible?

Data Conclusions

Particular

General‘Aristotelian’ Experimental Psychology

New approaches to case study

Impossible (Psych training)

Impossible (My claim)

Lossof

structure

QUESTION ANSWER

SPECIFIC

GENERALAPPLIED RESEARCH

CASE-BASEDMETHODS

Point Three

Don’t try to count everything.

“In truth, a good case could be made that if your knowledge is meagre and unsatisfactory, the last thing in the world you should do is make measurements. The chance is negligible that you will measure the right things accidentally.”

(George Miller, 1962)

Parametric vs structural sciences (Harré)Physics vs chemistry...

... and anatomy, geology, astronomy, crystalography, etc etc

Point Four

Beware of ‘cause’ and ‘effect’...

...and falling objects.

Point Five

Beware of assuming...

1) That all experiments are quantitative, and all non-experimental studies are qualitative.

2) That ‘qualitative methods’ can only be certain kinds of approaches to the study of language, such as Conversation Analysis, and Discourse Analysis.

Point Six

Beware of generalisations.

Therefore, Jane’s ability at XYZ, (relative to men), is ???(Typical inference needed in practical situations. Conclusion.)

Research has shown that women are significantly better at XYZ, than men.(Typical format for research finding. Major premise.)

Jane is a woman.(Typical occasion for application of findings to individuals. Minor premise.)

Point Seven

To thine own self be true.

The structure of knowledge?Waterstones Bookshop (Nottingham)Floor Plan - alphabetical index

History (indexed under ‘H’)Law (indexed under ‘L’) etc, etcAcademic Psychology (under ‘A’) - 3rd floorPopular Psychology (under ‘P’) - 2nd floor

What you know as a person, and what you know as a scientist are very different.They seem impossible to reconcile.Our official view, as a discipline and a profession, is that it would be wrong to try, because the former is worthless, and the latter is ideal.But ...

If I lived on a hill and wanted to see further, I would build a tower on the hill.I wouldn’t build my tower in the valley, and hope that one day it would be even taller than the hill.(What we know as scientists should be designed to complement what we know as people; not substitute for it.)How can we do that?

Treat what you know (as a professional, and as an everyday person) as part of ‘the literature’.Not because it is perfect (the literature isn’t either) but because we have to use it, challenge it, engage it, in order to make it better, and to integrate it with scientific / professional knowledge.

But(and this is a very big ‘but’)It is ‘tacit’. You can’t state, review, and critique it as your starting point, like ordinary literature.You have to elicit it, and work on it, through the medium of case study.

That is where tacit (professional and ‘everyday’) knowledge, and explicit (scientific) knowledge, can be made to meet and complement each other.

Pool of ideas and beliefs@ time tt - 1 t + 1

Sources

Experiments

rivalpossibilities

evaluation/selection

General applicationsand future versions

‘SCIENCE’

Pool of ideas and beliefs@ time tt - 1 t + 1

Sources

Experiments

rivalpossibilities

evaluation/selection

General applicationsand future versions

‘SCIENCE’

PRE-THEORETICAL PROBLEM SOLVING

Problem Solution

Direct face-valuelink

Pool of ideas and beliefs@ time tt - 1 t + 1

Sources

Experiments

rivalpossibilities

evaluation/selection

General applicationsand future versions

‘SCIENCE’

PRE-THEORETICAL PROBLEM SOLVING

Problem Solution

Direct face-valuelink

‘PRACTICE’Research-based

knowledge

Case particulars Plan/remedy

(?)(?)

Pool of ideas & beliefs

& lay at Time t

Pool ofbeliefs at

t +1

Pool ofbeliefs at

t - 1

Pool of ideas & beliefs

& lay at Time t

Pool ofbeliefs at

t +1

Pool ofbeliefs at

t - 1

Experiments

RevisedweightingsConflicts SLOW

CYCLE

‘SCIENTIFIC’METHOD

Pool of ideas & beliefs

& lay at Time t

Pool ofbeliefs at

t +1

Pool ofbeliefs at

t - 1

Experiments

RevisedweightingsConflicts SLOW

CYCLEUSES

FRESHSOURCES

‘SCIENTIFIC’METHOD

Pool of ideas & beliefs

& lay at Time t

Specific‘cases’

Specific hypotheses, forecasts &

recommendations

Pool ofbeliefs at

t +1

Pool ofbeliefs at

t - 1

Experiments

RevisedweightingsConflicts SLOW

CYCLE

ApplicationsIdeas

EvaluationsProblems

FASTCYCLE

CASEMETHOD

USESFRESH

SOURCES

‘SCIENTIFIC’METHOD

Point Eight

Don’t assume that ‘one size fits all’

Psychology sets out to describe what kinds of people behave in what kinds of ways in what kinds of situations.And of course not all people, behaviour and situations are the same.So -

What kinds of people are there? What kinds of behaviour are there? What kinds of situations are there?

We don’t know. In the main we have not stopped to ask. We have ploughed ahead with the illusion that ‘one size fits all’, and that’s why our generalisations do not apply reliably to individuals.

Imagine a world..

..where chemists did not distinguish different compounds, but just dealt in the common properties that apply to them all

..where doctors did not distinguish different diseases, but applied the same generally helpful remedies to all ‘poorly people’

..where biologists had not discovered species but dealt with the average data from all life-forms !!!

We need to get a life

(but first we must get an ontology)

Point Nine

Don’t be too sceptical

All other things being equal, false positives can only be reduced at the expense of increasing false negatives.We are trained to be ultra-sceptical, so we avoid believing most conclusions which are false (and also a great many that are true).Instead of being a profession that can ‘see further through a brick wall than the next person’, we can often fail to notice or accept what everyone else finds blindingly obvious.

Sequence Analysis

Of all truths relating to phenomena, the most valuable to us are those which relate to the order of their succession. On a knowledge of these is founded every reasonable anticipation of future facts, and whatever power we possess of influencing those facts to our advantage. 

John Stuart Mill, 1851

Motor Skill Model

Perception

Translation

Motorresponses

Changes in outside world

Motivation,goal

SOCIAL SKILL

INDIVIDUAL PSYCHOLOGY

I O

Non-

? ?

SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY

'

Problems as ‘Game Trees’

to

time

Past Future

a j p x b

Discrete Event, Continuous Time

a a p q r

Discrete Event, Fixed Time

p j a q r z a c i

Discontinuous Event, Event Timei.e. Pure (Mere?) Sequence

a j p i ax

a

b

c

d

.

.

.

.z

a b c d . . . . . . . . . . z SEQUITURS

ANTECEDENTS

SEQUENCE ANALYSIS OF COURTSHIP BEHAVIOR

IN THE DIMORPHIC JUMPING SPIDER MAEVIA

INCLEMENS(ARANEAE, SALTICIDAE)

START

END

Attracted

Responsible

Fulfilled

Confident

Content

Close

Accepted

Trusting

Ashamed

Angry

Restless

Passive

Anxious

Rejected

Lonely

Confused

APPLICATIONS INCLUDE  

•  Road accidents•  Violent incidents•  Family breakdown•  Human-computer interaction•  Escaping from fires•  Military operations•  Economic forecasting•  Restorative justice•  School disruption•  Anorexia nervosa•  Rape & sexual assault

•  Mining safety•  Language acquisition•  Train & plane crashes•  Depression•  Voice disorders•  Stress•  Counselling•  Eye disease•  Occupational selection•  Automatic classification•  Drug abuse

Knots in chainsThe problem of ‘higher order’ sequences

A-B-CA-B-D

(A-B, B-C, B-D)

A B

C

D

A

B

C

DE

A-B-CD-B-E

(A-B, B-C, D-B, B-E)

A-B-CA-B-E - wrongD-B-C - wrong

D-B-E

A

B

C

DE

A-B-CD-B-E

A-B-C-D * E-B-C-F * G-H-C-I * J-H-C-K(AB, BC, CD, EB, CF, GH, HC, CI, JH, CK)

A

B

C

D

E F

G HI

JK

Gives 4 correct sequences and 12 others besides: ABCF, ABCI, ABCK, etc, etc.

A

B

C

D

E F

G

H

I

J K

A-B-C-D * E-B-C-F * G-H-C-I * J-H-C-K

STATIONARITYThe probabilities which link events are

constant- they do not ‘drift’ over time

HOMOGENEITYThe probabilities which link events are

the same in different sequences

ZERO ORDERDays to is for they have proposed I the it material of are its go studies the our

of the following not over situation if the greater.

FIRST ORDERGoes down here is not large feet are the happy days and so what is dead

weight that many were constructed the channel was.

THIRD ORDERWe are going to see him is not correct to chuckle loudly and depart for

home.George Miller, 1951

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Training Data

Mean

Entropy

(bits per

symbol)

Order

Schematic basis for the Logical Pathway Model.

The simplified forward empirical pathway map (cut-off pf = .15). All numbers in parentheses following an event refer to the percentage of the total number of incidents that involved that event.

The logical pathway model for the reported violent incidents.

1 2 3 40

Clumped Over-spaced Bursts & Pauses

%Intervals

>T

Log %Intervals

>T

100

T

T

The log percentage survival without reoccurrence for initial incidents over a period

of 26 weeks.

The log percentage survival without reoccurrence for initial incidents over a period of 15 days.

Phase DescriptionA Events leading up to the victim being alerted to the offender.B Events between the victim being alerted to the offender and the offender making

first physical contact with the victim.C Events between first physical contact and penetration occurring (penetration was

defined as digital, genital or oral).D Events between first penetration and last withdrawal.E Events between last withdrawal and when the offender last contacts the victim

physically.F Events between last physical contact and the last sighting of the offender (also

included hearing the offender leave the scene).G Events between the offender escaping and the end of the statement.

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Victimengages in

own behaviour

Victimfeels/sensessomeone inthe vicinity

Victim isalerted to

the offender

Victim hearsa (unusual)

noise

Victimignores the

noise ordisturbance

VB6

START

END

Bedroom rapes, all cases, until victim notices offender.

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offender isverbally

aggressive

Victimconfronted by

offender

Victimspots aweapon

Victim isalerted toOffender

Victim isscared

Offender gainsphysicalcontrol

Victimscreams

Offenderapproaches

victim

Victimattempts to

escape

Victim fallsover

involuntary

Offenderengages in an

aggressivephysical attack

Single bedroom rapes, from victim’s first awareness of offender until first physical contact

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offenderpulls atvictimsclothing

Offenderfeels/gropes

victim

Offenderundresses the

victimaggressively

Offendercontrols thevictim witha weapon

Offenderattempts to

penetrate thevictim genitally

Offenderdemands the

victim removesan item ofclothing

Offenderverbally

controls thevictim

aggressively

Victimscreams

Offenderreplies

aggressively

Offenderpositions himself

sexually

Offenderpenetratesthe victimgenitally

Offendermoves

close to thevictim

VictimResists

Offenderphysically

controls thevictim

Offenderreassuresthe victim

Victimasks the

offender aquestion

Offenderdemand s

victim movesto a location

Victimcomplies

Victim isscared

Single bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offender asks apersonalquestion

Victim repliesabout the situation

they are in.e.g. alone

Offenderenquiresabout thesituation

Victim replies toa personalquestion

e.g. her name

Offenderasks for an

objecte.g. money

Victimdeclares

situational facte.g. no money

Offenderexpresseshow he is

feeling

Victimasks the

offender aquestion

Victimprovides an

explanation inresponse to a

question

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration - speech

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offenderpulls atvictimsclothing

Offender kissesthe victim

Offender positionshimself sexually

Offendertouches/feelsthe victims

body

Offendermoves closerto the victim

Offenderundresseshimself

Offenderpositions the

victim sexually

Offenderpenetratesthe victimgenitally

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration - sexual behaviour

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offender makesa sexual

statement aboutthe victim

OG14

Offenderdemands that thevictim moves to a

particularlocationOffender

withdrawssexually

Offendermoves

away fromthe victim

Offenderpositions the

victim sexually

Victim makesa statementabout thesituation

Offenderphysically

controls thevictim

END

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first penetration until last withdrawal—control and reorientation

0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00

Offenderattempts to kiss

the victim

Victim isscared

Offenderstimulates the

victim genitallyOffender

engages incunnilingus

Victimresists theoffender

VC2Victim is rendered

physicallyimmobile

Offenderphysically forces

the victim tomanipulate his

genitals

Offenderpenetratesthe victimgenitally

Offenderpositionshimselfsexually

Multiple bedroom rapes, from first penetration until last withdrawal—sexual behaviour

The end