Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030

8/7/2019 Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030

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Three possible scenarios

for the fu ture

Rough SeasIn the world of Rough Seas, scarcity of resources is predominant. Climate change adds further

stress. Cartels and bilateral agreements have overtaken free markets. Wealth is divided unequally

among nations, resulting in tension. The entire logistics chain is optimised regionally and national

governments control ports.

Yellow RiverIn Yellow River, China dominates the global arena economically, geopolitically and in shipping. China

is no longer the world’s cheapest manufacturing region. Instead, labour and resource-intensive manu-

facturing has moved to Africa and other Asian countries. Economic growth is signicantly slower in

the West and climate change is tackled only on a regional level – no global agreements exist.

Open OceansThe world of Open Oceans is a strongly globalised one. Global mega-corporations and megacities have

gained power over the nation state. Governments cooperate on the governance of climate issues and

free trade protocols. Climate change is perceived as an opportunity, and innovating green solutions is a

lifestyle. Highly optimised and integrated large scale logistics systems support global trade.

Sources

Con ten

WH YTo support our strategy work and

provide a foundation for nding

ways of being prepared for the

future, together with the industry.

WH A TThree challenging and different,

yet plausible, scenarios about

what shipping could look like in

the year 2030.

HO WBy combining expert input,

quality research, hard work,

dedication and a bit of

imagination.





U N C E R T AI N T I E S

One way of making sense of a complex and changi

scenarios – stories describing alternative, plausible

come about. But how do you go about doing that?

At Wärtsilä, we rst set the year 2030 as the target

enough in the future to let fundamental changes ta

be tangible.

The team then set out to determine what could sha

alternative, plausible futures is about understanding

understanding the changes in the contextual enviro

on the shipping industry, helps us understand the w

turn out and what kind of effects it can have on ind

Through an intensive process of researching, interv

workshops, the team found two certainties and six

The only things we felt we could be sure of were tha

be part of the transportation matrix and that water w

The next page explains how this information was tu

scenarios.

Ho w do you c

a comple x wo

three scenari

C O N T

E X T U A

L EN V I R O N M E N

T

T H

E S H I P

P ING I N D U S T R Y

Shipping industry

player

Energy

Geopolitics

Figure: Adapted from van der Heijden 2005

Macroeconomics Climate

Social values

Technology

= Key uncertainties

EnvironmentLegislation

International nance Globalisation

Competitors

Investors

Employees

Suppliers

Regulators

Customers

NGOs Trade

Demographics

6



1

2 43

5

Scrambledgeopolitics

Globalleadershipby China

Global actionagainst climate

change

Neo-colonialisticapproach

creates friction

Nationalgovernmentscontrol power

Protectionistic,bilateral, uneven

growth

Free trade andow of capital,strong growth

Megacities andmega corporations

form the power base

Technologicalor market-driven

solutions

Local means to dealwith sustainability

issues

K e y uncer tain ti

la y the ground w

for scenarios

T hr ee scenar ios

emer geBy analy sing these uncer tainties, the combinations of dif f er ent outcomes y ielded three plausible scenar ios.

8



In the world of Rough Seas, scarcity o

is predominant. Climate change adds f

Rough Seas

Cartels and bilateral agreements have overtaken free

limited and unevenly distributed. Resources are sca

a source of power. Wealth is divided unequally amo

sion, and indeed, some nations are under pressure

geopolitics is scrambled. The key words for the Rou

tension and bilateralism.

New trade routes have emerged as a result of two k

in bilateral agreements and industries moving to res

of water and agricultural products being transported

The global tension has increased the need for arme

routes, now mostly open due to climate warming, a

The entire logistics chain is optimised regionally. Fle

the era of ags of convenience (registering a ship in

regulation) has come to an end. Oil tankers are decr

riers take on a bigger role instead. In regional trade,

transports. The changed pattern of goods ow has some major container terminals have closed down.

control ports.

Climate change is perceived as a threat, not an opp

regional solutions are in place to cope with this cha

zens’ resource use by taxation and other mechanis

resources such as energy and water is expensive a

and involuntarily, to more sustainable and less reso

renewable energy is the energy of choice and the m

sustained communities is a major trend. Control of

the age pyramid are global challenges.

Sep tember 14, 2027 The rs t con vo y o f

ships

carr ying wa ter sails from

Russia to India, pro tec ted

b y Na v y escor ts.

10



Energy scarcity

Bilateral agreements

and protectionism

GDP growthFriction

Causes and e f fec ts

positive impact

negative impact

12



In Yellow River, China dominates the gl

and geopolitically, and the renminbi is n

exchange currency. The Chinese trade

well as its trade with India, the Middle-

China is no longer the world’s cheapest manufactu

intensive manufacturing has moved to Africa and ot

the nished goods are shipped to China for the afu

megacities. As the living standard rises in China, Ch

tors to the historical sites in Europe.

China has invested heavily in Africa, where local eco

ards rise at a rapid pace, although corruption has by

These fast-developing countries have adopted Chin

Economic growth is signicantly slower in the West

have responded with massive R&D investments and

facturing has been moved back to US and Europe.

EU try to strengthen their relationships with Latin Am

Climate change is tackled only on a regional level –

However, China has, in part, counterbalanced the fa

with efciency and cleantech. Western societies ada

Europe specically develops efcient buildings and

The shipping industry, in the world of Yellow River, the big shipping companies are Chinese-owned, an

cording to Chinese trade interests. New ports are b

sia and India, and Chinese ports have grown into s

centres.

Towards 2030, the Chinese economy is becoming o

widens, the supply of water and food is of increasin

down. At the same time, China’s African allies start

economically.

Yello w Ri ver

Ma y 21, 2028

A Chinese con tainership – one

o f man y – is crossing the Indian

Ocean on i ts wa y from Dar es

Salaam to Shanghai, loaded

wi th manu fac tured goods.

14



Strong internal

consumption and

intra-Asian trade

Shift in balance

of power

Alliances create

Chinese “satellite states”

especially in Africa

Challenges in

governance within

the Chinese sphere

of inuence

Growth in Chinese

economyCauses and e f fec ts

positive impact

negative impact

16





Causes and e f fec ts

Agreements on

climate and trade

Growth of global

corporations

Governments

focus on corporate

governance

Protection of

commercial interests

positive impact

negative impact

20





SourcesThese scenarios would not be the same without the valuable input of

various experts. We are grateful to the various academics, economists, NGO

representatives, independent researchers, business leaders, and the representatives

of governments and trade organisations, as well as our own specialists, for their

contributions. Wärtsilä powers every third ship and servicsailing the world’s seas. Our power plants p

world’s electricity.

Currently, shipping is the most efcient and

transporting goods over long distances an

to contribute to ensure that this remains th

sustainable solutions is the cornerstone of

commitment.

Wärtsilä has over 18,000 professionals, ma

in 70 countries around the world. Wärtsilä

OMX Helsinki, Finland.

Share your views, challenge us and provide your fee

the Shipping Scenarios at www.wartsila.com/shippin

You can also follow our Twitter feed at www.twitter.c

This release includes various forward-looking statements regarding potential risks, conditions and Wärtsilä’s business, as assumed by Wärtsilä

Corporation as of the date of this release. The forward-looking statements are based on unclear and unknown factors, risks, events and uncertainties

beyond Wärtsilä’s control. Accordingly, the forward-looking statements may or may not materialise, or may materialise substantially differently.

Consequently, neither Wärtsilä Corporation nor any of its subsidiaries assume liability on the basis of, or related to, this release. The readers of this

release must not rely on, take, or fail to take any actions based on this release or contents thereof. Wärtsilä Corporation undertakes no obligation to

update or adjust this release.

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Wartsila Shipping Scenarios 2030

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