Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks

Dr. Peter H. Gleick

www.pacinst.orgPacific Institute, Oakland, California

Tufts University

February 2005

Water and Conflict: Conclusions

There is a long history of conflicts over fresh water.

Such conflicts have taken many forms. The risks of water-related disputes are

growing. But: water can also be a cause for

cooperation, negotiation, and agreement.

Key Concepts and Issues

“Environmental Security” Water and conflict “Water Wars” International Rivers Shared watersheds/watercourses Environmental agreements and treaties

Environment and Security

Outgrowth of the ending of the Cold War (mid-1980s);

Outgrowth of the improved understanding of environmental issues;

Marked by a rich, albeit cantankerous political science debate;

Water piece enriched by diverse case studies.

Fresh water is widely shared internationally.– Half of all land area on Earth– Over 260 “international river basins”

There is growing competition for water.– Rising populations– Rising demand from all sectors

International efforts to resolve water-related disputes are often inadequate.

Water and Conflict:Critical Issues

Water as a goal– Middle East (2700 BPE to present)

Water as a weapon– Han River, Korea; Ataturk Dam

Water systems as targets– WWII, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Iraq

Water in development disputes– Apartheid SA, Cauvery River, Gabcikovo

“Water Wars?” Or More Complex?

Chronology of water conflicts: www.worldwater.org

Continent

International Basins

Africa 60

North/Central America 39

South America 39

Asia 51

Europe 72

Totals 261

Number of International River Basins, by Continent

Source: Wolf et al. 1999

Danube 18Congo 13Niger 11Nile 10Zambezi 9Lake Chad 8Aral Sea 8Rhine 8Amazon 8

Volta 6Jordan 6Mekong 6Tigris/Euphrates 6Kura-Araks 6Ganges/Brahmaputra 5Neman 5Vistula/Wista 5La Plata 5

Transboundary Rivers Shared by Five or More States

New Concerns/New Challenges?

Water and economic development: poverty, allocation.

Subnational, state-to-state, ethnic, local disputes are all increasingly common.

Water-related acts of terrorism.

Subnational Water Conflicts; Terrorism

Los Angeles Aqueduct, Alabama Gates

Credit: G.D.Bain 1991

Meuse River

Vaal Dam, South Africa, DWAF

Technical (scarcity) *– Improve efficiency of water use in all sectors– Explore new supply options

Economic (allocation)– Reduce water subsidies; re-evaluate rates– Re-evaluate agricultural policies

Institutional (management)– Joint basin management– Dispute resolution mechanisms

Political *– Effective and comprehensive joint agreements– Equitable water rights allocations and control

Reducing the Risks of Water Conflicts

The “productivity” of water use can be greatly increased

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Political Approaches: Treaties

Many specific international river basin treaties, e.g.,– The Nile (the Sudan and Egypt)– The Colorado (the U.S. and Mexico)– The Jordan (Israel and Jordan)– The Ganges/Brahmaputra (India and

Bangladesh)• Mixed success; continued challenges

Obligation to Share Data Obligation to Resolve Disputes Peacefully Equitable Utilization of Water Prevention of Significant Harm Obligation to Notify and Inform Cooperative Management

UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997)

Political Approaches: General Principles of International Water Law

Conclusions: Water, Conflict, and Cooperation

There is a long history of both conflict and cooperation over fresh water resources.

New challenges are developing. Will our abilities to reach agreement and

cooperation keep pace with the developing challenges?

Dr. Peter H. Gleick

www.pacinst.org

Pacific Institute, Oakland, California

See also: www.worldwater.org