g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Georg Kaser
Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics
Center for Climate and Cryosphere
Pls note that unattributed images are extracted
from http://www.wikicommons.com
11*01*22 * cambridge
We are 6.7 x 109 glaciologists http://www.worldometers.info/population/: >6.9 this afternoon!
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
IPCC (2007) WG2 Ch. 10.6.2
Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other
part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate
continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035
and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at
the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present
500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005).
Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh, 2007: Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 469-506.
25 fold greater
mass loss than
observed 33,000
Same as average (IPCC 2007, WG1) Air temperature
to rise by 12°C!
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
• 2004 – 2007: Lead Author:
IPCC AR4 WGI – Glaciers and Ice Caps
• 2006 – 2008:
Lead Author: IPCC Technical Paper on Climate
Change and Water 2008
• December 2009 (in the run-up to the UNFCCC-COP15):
Indian Governmental White Paper
• December 2009:
phone call from AFP ………….. appr. 2 months in the eye of the typhoon
Google seach „kaser hialaya 2035“: 424.000 scores
• J. G. COGLEY, J. S. KARGEL, G. KASER, C. J. VAN DER VEEN (2010)
Tracking the Source of Glacier Misinformation,
29 JANUARY 2010 VOL 327 SCIENCE
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Farmers in Trivandrum: “Glaciers disappear and we will die of thirst“
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (NCGIA)
Number of people per square kilometer around the world in 1994
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Kaser et al. (2010) PNAS
Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Scientific findings vs
~6 x109
experts‘ opinions
Engineer (Alps): „I don’t believe this. YOU have to proof it to ME “
Academic „experts“: “climate lie“, “climate mafia“
‚Experts‘ from the street: „SIE kleiner Glaziologe“, „DU Klimawixer“
Farmers in Trivandrum: „Glaciers disappear and we will die of thirst“
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Physical Scientists
(Non-communicators)
We might not like the general
media and arts and entertainment
media, but they are our link to the
public.
Physical Scientist- communicators
Social scientists
Science news media General news media Arts and enter- attainment media
Science imposters
Government/policy officials
Corporate world Science-educated public General public
POLICY DECISIONS
Color key: Red = misinformation/lies Green = neutral or partly faulty information. Gray-blue: imperfect but overall mostly reasonable information flows. Bright blue: high-quality information flow
Courtesy Jeff Kargel (2010)
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Political System
regulates interaction and
development
of the society
Legal System:
regulates
justice and injustice
Economy
regulates
exchanges
and
trade relations
Science
provides
specific knowledge
Egner (2007)
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Political System
regulates interaction and
development/change
of the society
Legal System:
regulates
justice and injustice
Economy
regulates
information exchanges
and
trade relations
Science
provides
specific climate change
knowledge
Egner (2007)
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Political System
regulates interaction and
development
of the society
Legal System:
regulates
justice and injustice
Economy
regulates
information exchanges
and
trade relations
Science
provides
specific knowledge
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Experieces with media
Lessons learned
Example 1: Gasherbrum 2 (8035 m)
• Interview and than a drink at the bar
Result:
• erotic dreams at 7.500 m
• faster than R. Messner
• etc.
• don‘t go for a drink!
Have an urgent appointment after the interview,
• fill the interview with (invented) ‚sexy‘ stories
• show great interest in the hard life of a journalist while having a drink
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Example 2:
Avalanche accident in Peru (heavily injured field worker)
• Information oozes to Astria
• Journalist calls
• I refer to a media conference when coming home
• He wants to write a sensetional story, even without information
• never threaten with a media conference (exclusivity)
• have a good lawyer who proves your innocence in the accident
• organise the boot of the J. before publication -
(very) good connections
Experiences with media
Lessons learned
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Rules for the intercourse with journalists
Only written interviews.
Proof reading!
CAUTION!: check also the TITLE and the picture CAPTIONS!
After the interview:
• DON‘T watch TV
• DON‘T listen to the radio
• DON‘T read newspapers
How to avoid annoyances?
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
• the subject of study is permanently changing
• measurements cannot be repeated
The dilemma of (climate) reserach (ers)
• This violates the principles of physical reserach
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
• to record obeservations
• inventory of the drivers, budget e.g. heat fluxes
• identify the reasons (processes, statistics, modeling)
• seacrh for similar cases in the past (climate history)
• precise rules – providing uncertainties –
awkward terminology
The methods used in (climate) reserach
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
www.ipcc.ch
Report (1500 pp)
Technical Summary (300 pp)
Summary for PM (30 pp)
each WG + Synthesis Report 2004 - 2007:
Governm. Repres.
The IPCC Reports
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Temperatures are 7°C higher by 2100!
Disagreement among scientists!
Science language
Media language
Die anthropogen verursachten Störungen verursachen im Klimasystem
zurzeit ein energetisches Ungleichgewicht im Ausmass von 1,6 [0.6 – 2.4]
W m-2. Unter Annahme des Emissionsszenariums B1 erfährt das
Klimasystem eine Wärmezufuhr, die bis 2100 einem Anstieg der
Temperatur an der Erdoberfläche um 2°C gegenüber der
Mitteltemperatur im 19. Jahrhundert entspricht.
[A1FI; 7°C] …..
[Beschreibung der Grenzen und Unsicherheiten dieser Berechnungen]
ranges
scenarios
uncertainties
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
STERN – GORE – IPCC AR4
Heike Egner:
Überraschender Zufall
oder gelungene wissenschaftliche Kommunikation:
Wie kam der Klimawandel in die aktuelle Debatte?
A surprising coincidence or an (intended) successful
communication of scientific findings:
How came the climate change into debate?
GAIA 16/4 (2007)
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Wie gehen Journalisten mit mir um?
Example 3:
Error in IPCC WG2 Report: Himalaya glaciers melted by 2035
• Information about my eraly detection of the erreor gets to AFP
• for about 3 weeks journalists call 24h/d from around the world
• „a new climate lie“ = „glacier gate“
•„answer the following 10 questions!“
•„Who is THE culprit “
• patiently (scientifically) explain how the error happened
• „an error can happen in a 3000 pages volume“
• Internationality of the IPCC, (scientific)-cultural differences
• counter question: „does denunciation add to knowledge?“
• Hope that: „Paris Hilton gets pregnant from Roman Polanski!“
Experiences with media
Lessons learned
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Need to be sensational
New (and exclusive) information
→ great theat, fear, names!
account – counter account (a fatal conceptual error!)
→ scientists have different opinions (results)!
The jornalists‘ dilemma
The scientists‘ dilemma
Codes are not unedsrtood outside the community
→ Transformation of information by (i) scientists, (ii) journalists
Consolidation of new knwoledge only after a couple of years
→ no sensation content.
Pressure (appeal) to go (from) public :
→ Reserachers talk as experst and as laymen,
but are always taken as experst (such as I here and today)
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
The Earths climate
can develop unpredictable dynamics
when reaching a tipping point and it can tip over
if no swift (within a decade) radical changes
take place in our economic behaviour.
The short time span until 2020
-only two to three legislative periods,
a short economic cycle,
2 olympic summer games ahead –
decides
upon the living conditions of future generations
„Das Ende der Welt, wie wir sie kannten“
„The end of the world as we know it“
Harald Welzer u. Claus Leggewie
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
With this, a perspective of finiteness has come
into the linear progress.
This is unknown, almost monstrous,
to the modern way of thinking.
„Das Ende der Welt, wie wir sie kannten“
„The end of the world as we know it“ Harald Welzer u. Claus Leggewie
g. kaser * 110122 * cambridge
Risiks turn back into danger.
Not are only earth‘s resources finite,
with it also
the achievements of western modern age can cease
such as:
market economy, civil society, and democracy.
Climate Change is a Culture Change and an outlook onto future life conditions.
„Das Ende der Welt, wie wir sie kannten“
„The end of the world as we know it“
Harald Welzer u. Claus Leggewie
