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We can’t predict what will happen on the world stage...
…but we do have a firm grip on the automotive industry.
Glass’s 2018 Predictions:
The UK Motorcycle Market
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Positive outlook for life on two wheels
Although enthusiasts provide a solid base for new and used
motorcycle sales, the dominant factor influencing activity in this
sector of the market in 2018 will be the economy and its impact on
the spending power of buyers.
Strong growth predicted in the new market
In 2018 we expect sales of new motorcycles to grow by as much as
9% to between 110,000 and 115,000 bikes. Last year saw
registrations of 104,655 machines as the market slipped back by
18% due to a flood of pre-registered bikes hitting the market at the
end of 2016. The introduction of the new Euro4 standard on 1
January 2017 prompted dealers to pre-register their Euro3 stock and
offer them for sale at attractive prices before the end of the year.
Buyers predictably swooped on the cheaper machines. However,
economic uncertainty no doubt also played a part in the decline.
This year, manufacturers plan to launch up to 75 new models which
should also help the market to a stronger performance after the
overall decline in 2017, settling closer to 2015 levels. New models
will drive higher sales as enthusiasts find themselves unable to resist
the temptation of new machines with improved specification and
performance.
Top 10 selling new models in 2017
2Glass's 2018 Predictions – Motorcycle market
# Model 2017 Registrations Market share
1 Honda PCX 125 2,329 2.2%
2 Honda NSC 110 WH 2,018 1.9%
3 Honda CRF 1000 1,966 1.9%
4 Honda CB 125 F 1,888 1.8%
5 BMW R 1200 GS 1,821 1.7%
6 BMW R 1200 GS Adventure 1,520 1.4%
7 Yamaha NMAX 125 1,426 1.4%
8 Yamaha MT 125 1,205 1.1%
9 Honda MSX 125 1,186 1.1%
10 Honda NC 750 X 1,155 1.1%
Data courtesy of MCIA
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Positive outlook for life on two wheels
A buoyant used market expected in 2018
In the used market, the availability of good quality stock is expected
to improve during 2018 from the effects of the last recession.
Following the economic crash of 2008, dealers exported much of
their used stock to mainland Europe and UK new sales fell sharply.
This meant there have been fewer bikes coming on to the used
market in recent years. However, rising new sales over recent years,
coupled with the arrival on the market of 3-year-old machines
purchased using Personal Contract Purchases (PCPs), could ensure
a better supply of used bikes in 2018.
The growth in the popularity of 3-year PCPs in the bike market is
also helping to improve the quality of used machines. PCPs impose
limits on annual mileage, stipulate regular servicing and encourage
careful ownership through penalties for damage to machines. The
result is that bikes bought using PCPs are generally of a higher
quality.
Like all vehicle sectors, the motorcycle market faces the twin
economic headwinds of Brexit uncertainty and the squeeze on real
incomes caused by inflation. Together these factors have the
potential to destabilise the market but, unlike other sectors, this one
can fall back on its enthusiast base. The most likely impact of bad
economic news will be a switch from new to used by some buyers,
but overall we expect both new and used sales to grow over the year.
3Glass's 2018 Predictions – Motorcycle market
Flying high: the BMW R1200GS and it’s Adventure variant (pictured) are proving
popular in the new and used markets.
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Positive outlook for life on two wheels
What’s in store for used values?
Values should hold up in 2018 as increases in the prices of new
bikes feed through into strong residual values for used machines. In
the used market demand could remain similar to last year with larger
sports bikes in demand with strong sales in the £3,000 to £5,000
price bracket. Volumes at auctions at the end of 2017 were up and
conversion rates were improving. The BMW R1200GS is particularly
popular in the used market.
Of course, commuting by bike or scooter remains a cost-effective
alternative to car ownership for many people who remain undeterred
by fears surrounding the rising rate of bike thefts in London and the
major cities. Smaller bikes and scooters are particularly popular for
commuting - six of the top ten best-selling bikes in 2017 were 125cc
models and the Honda PCX125 was still heading best seller list in
January 2018.
Although people of all ages buy bikes, the average age of buyers of
new bikes is rising steadily and increasingly affluent customers now
own more than one bike. This trend will help sales of sports bikes
and high-end models. And across the board there is evidence that
dealers have been stocking up in the expectation of a strong 2018.
“Warning: Severe Temptation Ahead”
The first real test of buyer sentiment will come next month with the
MCN London Motorcycle show at London’s Excel Centre which
opens on 16 February. So close to Valentine’s Day, it will be an
opportunity for the industry to feel the love of enthusiasts and the
wider motorcycling community. With many new models on display,
the event carries a mock health warning: “Warning: Severe
Temptation Ahead”. Dealers and manufacturers alike are hoping that
2018 will be the year buyers succumb to that temptation on a grand
scale.
4Glass's 2018 Predictions – Motorcycle market
The MCN London Motorcycle Show at Excel London will offer the first
indication of buyers’ appetites in 2018
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Author:
Douglas Broom, Communications Consultant
Contributors:
Paul McDonald, Motorcycle Editor, Glass’s
Media enquiries: [email protected]
Glass’s, part of Autovista Group
5th Floor, Wellington House
125 Strand
London
WC2R 0AP
w: www.glassbusiness.co.uk
p: +44 (0)20 3897 2500
T: @GlassGuide
Published by Glass’s Information Services Ltd. All material © Glass’s Information Services 2018. 5
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Glass’s 2018 Predictions:
The UK Motorcycle Market
Paul McDonald
Motorcycle Editor
Glass’s
