Weather Technology R&D Improvementsto Support the FCS and Objective Force

with Brigade and Below C4 & ISR

US Army Research LaboratoryComputational Information & Science Directorate

Battlefield Environment Division

•NATO MCMG WG/BMSS• US Principal, Artillery Liaison from ARL• Coordinate Tactical Met Systems and TDA Development

•Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research (CSU)• R&D for Army/USAF/Navy• Hydrology, Clouds, NWP/Assimilation, MetSat Apps• $7M 6.2, $2M 6.1 funding for Phase IV (3+ year)

•University Partnering for Operational Support• Terrestrial & Space Weather Technology Transfer• JHU/APL & UoA/Geophysical Institute• $4M 6.2 (Army), $4M OMA (USAF)

BE Division Major External ProgramsBE Division Major External Programs

• Legacy technology: Current weather forecast feeds to IMETS ABCS are “top-down”- Not based on any recent observations in the actual Area of Interest - Does not make real-time use of METSAT and other on-scene sensors - 0 - 3 hr forecasts often based on data 6 to 12 hr old.

• Is there an Army “Nowcast” requirement? - Concepts for SWO / IMETS-light in Combat Brigades - IMETS ORD - Relevance to Objective Force/FCS INTEL - New decision aids and weather products for echelons below brigade - Dismounted Battlespace Battle Lab

• What’s the new technology R&D Challenge? Weather “nowcast” centerpiece - Technical shortfalls in current GOVT and commercial forecast technology to use on-scene and real-time remote sensors - Inability to fuse forecasts & “ground-truth” observations

• What’s the Accuracy Improvement Metric? Preliminary results from nowcast proof of concept study showing quantitative reduced error vs. number of regional sensors available

OUTLINEOUTLINE

Purpose: Future year technology follow-on to IMETS – Support to Future Combat System (FCS) and Army Objective Force including Brigade and Below

IMETS receives two daily runs of the 120-hour Navy NOGAPS global forecasts (100 km spacing) and two daily runs of the 48-hour Air Force MM5 regional forecasts (15 km spacing down to about 50 m above the surface) from the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The IMETS Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM) combines these forecasts with surface and upper air observation data to introduce more layers near the surface (at 2.5 km spacing down to 2 m above the surface) over the first 24-hour forecast for Army applications. These data and derived weather hazards and features (icing, turbulence, …) from the Atmospheric Sounding Program (ASP) are stored in a 4-D Gridded Met Database (GMDB) of 70 parameters.

Integrated Meteorological System (IMETS) Weather Forecast Functions

Integrated Meteorological System (IMETS) Weather Forecast Functions

Air Force Weather Agency CONUS provides “top-down” weather information feeds to the Army -“anywhere, anytime”

Air Force Weather Agency CONUS provides “top-down” weather information feeds to the Army -“anywhere, anytime”

Commercial Tactical Very Small Aperture Terminal (T-VSAT)

ABCS Integrated Meteorological System - IMETS CP / Heavy TOC

Weather Effects Workstation

(WEW)

High-Resolution Forecasts Weather (Wx) Hazards SWO analysis of AF / Navy / Army “Model of the Day” IWEDA Wx Impact TDA TOC Web Page Generator Gridded Met DatabaseJoint Common Database Wx WxSAT Analysis / Imagery Weather Contour Client Application Support 3-D Wx Data Browser

JCDB Weather

CTP Weather FeatureABCS BFA IWEDA Overlays

ABCS Wx Contour Overlays MTF Met Messages

AF SWO Operation & Analysis

US: GE-1 / EUR: Eutelsat-W3 / PAC: IntelSat-802

Background: Army Weather for DIV and Above TOCIMETS currently operates with only “top-down” data feeds - no local data

Background: Army Weather for DIV and Above TOCIMETS currently operates with only “top-down” data feeds - no local data

Max Area: 500 x 500 km

Max Height: 30 km

Min Resolution: 2 km (goal < 100 m)

Meteorological Measuring Set - Profiler (MMS-P)

• Precipitation Rate• Precipitation Size• Turbulence• Severe Weather• Reduction of Vis (fog,dust, …)

• Wind Velocity• Temperature (T & Tv)• Pressure• Cloud Base Height• Cloud Tops• Precipitation Type

Artillery Meteorology Parameters

AN/TMQ-50 Semi-Automated Meteorological Station (SMS) surface sensor NOAA/DMSP

MetSat Data

80 km

30 km

Current and extended range trajectories

20

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MM5 Forecast Model -> 4D Data Cube

The Engineering Manufacturing Development (EMD) Artillery Met Profiler pre-production prototype:

Artillery Meteorology - Characterizing meteorological environment along the trajectory and in the target area

Artillery Meteorology - Characterizing meteorological environment along the trajectory and in the target area

Upgrades the MMS-P balloon profile with surface obs (AN/TMQ 50) and POES MetSat to fuse with the MM5 forecast model output to forecast 4-D artillery met data over the region

Initializing NOGAPS forecast and observation data broadcast from AFWA

• Develop capability for IMETS-light and 2-person SWO Combat Weather Teams in MI CO

• Support C2 “on-the-move” with up to date met data, met-sat overlays and weather impact decision aids fully compatible with CTP and C4I systems

• Continue to exploit reach-back for “top-down” weather (from DIV and above IMETS and AF Weather Hubs) for 24 hr and 5 day forecasts

FCS - A “sensor rich” environment C2, Brigade ISR collection & analysis, UAV/UGV and sensor webs

FCS - A “sensor rich” environment C2, Brigade ISR collection & analysis, UAV/UGV and sensor webs

• Fuse higher echelon forecasts with– local sensor obs– remote sensing (METSAT)– weather HUMINT

• Improve first-in and daily mission support – 0-3 hr local nowcasts– 0-48 hr regional forecasts (MM5)– 3-5 day theater forecasts (NOGAPS)

• Support Brigade ops, UAV, RSTA & weather over complex terrain and MOUT

Contrasts in Weather Technology for DIV and Above Vs BDE and BelowContrasts in Weather Technology for DIV and Above Vs BDE and Below

34 Vehicle Mounted IMETS

92 Light Systems

The Technical Challenges to Nowcast Weather TechnologyThe Technical Challenges to Nowcast Weather Technology

Existing commercial and military forecast models are limited to standard observations - an upper air vertical profile and standard met at standard sensor heights above the surface.

Most forecast models can not use isolated surface observations even if they are available.

The Army tactical Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM) on IMETS enhances 15 km scale MM5 gridded data forecasts received twice a day, which are themselves based on world wide met observations. Data can be 6-12 hours old by the time the forecast reaches the IMETS.

Currently BFM can assimilate standard surface observations - but only within a 1 hr window centered on the BFM start time (usually 0 Z or 12 Z for NOGAPS inputs; 6 Z or 18 Z for MM5).

Army weather situational awareness and weather impact decision aids for digital map overlays should use current on-scene observations, if available, and remote sensing to continuously update short-term (0-3 hr) nowcasts and decision aids.

Basic “data fusion” adjustments can be implemented now, with more sophisticated data assimilation and nowcast numerical modeling later, to exploit non-conventional met data (for example, observed weather data en-route along arbitrary paths and at arbitrary times, METSAT data, and human INTEL observations - “UAV sees fog lifting and visibility improving now across the target area”).

Station used as input data for analyses using 1 station Stations used as input data for analyses using 3 stations Stations used as input data for analyses using 5 stations Stations used as input data for analyses using 12 stations

Remaining 96 stations in the model domain used for forecast/nowcast validations

Simple Data Fusion Nowcast - Proof of Concept StudySimple Data Fusion Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study

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Forecast/Nowcast Temperature Absolute Error

Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet

22 Jan – 28 Feb 2000

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Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept StudyPreliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study

Data Set - Three months of Oklahoma Mesonet Observations:22 Jan- 28 Feb 2000 (38 days); 1 May - 29 Jun 2000 (60 days)

Applies simple data fusion of actual surface sensor observations with the standard 0-24 hourly outputs from BFM, the current tactical Battlescale Forecast Model used in the field on the AN/TMQ-40C Integrated Meteorological System (IMETS)

Reports the absolute forecast error averaged over the other 96 Oklahoma surface stations at each hour of the day (0-24) and then averaged over the 38 and 60 day study windows

Clearly demonstrates the progressive improvements to BFM by fusing 1, 3, 5 and 12 on-scene, real-time surface observations from a few surface observations scattered across the Oklahoma Mesonet to produce a prototype 0-hr nowcast for each hour of the day:

% Reduction in Absolute Error Using: 1 Observation 3 Observations 12 Observations Temperature: 25 - 30 % 40 - 45 % 60 - 65 % Wind Speed: 15 - 25 % 25 - 35 % 30 - 45 % Wind Direction: 10 - 20 % 20 - 30 % 35 - 45 % Relative Humidity: 0 - 25 % 20 - 35 % 40 - 60 %

Additional improvements are expected when the observations can be assimilated directly into the BFM numerical model (as opposed to data fusion post-processing used here)

Preliminary Nowcast Proof of Concept StudyPreliminary Nowcast Proof of Concept Study

DynamicDust Storm

Polar and geostationary WxSAT (GOES, DMSP, NPOESS, …)

APT ~ 4 km/pix,

HRPT ~ 1.1 km/pixDynamicSoil Moisture Dynamic

Snow Cover

UAV derived data (ground vs air speed, snow cover, visibility…) and perhaps direct sensor data

Robotic Ground Vehicles may collect and use local met data - also should exploit NBC RECON met data, armor wind/pressure data, etc.

Arty-met surface and profile observations from AN/TMQ-50 Semi-Automated Meteorological Station (SMS) and AN/TMQ-41 Meteorological Measuring Set

Surface sensors: IREMBASS-compatible TACMET II sensor and ceilometer; Remote Miniature Weather Sensor (RMWS - Infantry and AF Combat Weather), Miniature Remote Weather Station (MRWS - SOF), Meteorological Automated Sensor and Transceiver (MAST); & AF TACMET-MOD II, Air Traffic Control Towers, Airfield Automatic Met Equipment, AF Marwinsonde profiles when in theater

Data Fusion of information from Combat Weather Teams, G2, and other soldier observations including weather HUMINT: “A heavy rain has begun now where we are”

New capabilities are needed to exploit the potential web of sensors on the future battlefield

New capabilities are needed to exploit the potential web of sensors on the future battlefield

Weather: Cloud cover, wind, turbulence, temperature, precipitation rate, icing

Target Acquisition: Illumination, background radiance, surface temperature, surface albedo (reflectance), aerosol events, reduced visibility

Ground State: Soil moisture, snow cover, flooding, vegetation type, precipitation amounts, snow depth

New IMETS display - GOES 10 data overlayed on IMETS forecast outputs - 6.5-7 m

Band - Water Vapor, Forecast Winds and Temperature

Capabilities are being developed for IMETS to exploit Air Force and Army satellite ground stations to produce real-time information for data denied areas

Military METSAT Exploitation - Conditions in Data Denied Areas

Military METSAT Exploitation - Conditions in Data Denied Areas

• High-resolution geostationary imagery, graphics and data

• High-resolution classified and unclassified POES imagery/graphics and special sensor data

Other Sources(Army, internet,… as available)

W-STT / JMIST(Comms feed from

AF Hubs - STT withoutWxSAT antennas)

AF STT(Enhanced with

antennas for IMETS Mounted & CP)

Direct UHF(Antenna & Low Res

LRIT / WEFAXLRPT / APT)

• Low-resolution geostationary Weather Facsimile (WEFAX ==> LRIT Low Rate Information Transmission)

• Low-resolution Polar Orbiter Automated Picture Taking (APT ==> LRPT Low Rate Picture Transmission)

(WEFAX and APT transition to digital LRIT and LRPT for most international WxSat in 2002+ )

Enhanced STT

METSAT will become a More Important Source of Real-time Data for Now-casts and Decision Aids

METSAT will become a More Important Source of Real-time Data for Now-casts and Decision Aids

IMETS Requirements:

Evaluation of Aerospace Corp Direct Receive Antenna -• Prototyping a low resolution solution - NPOESS L-Band Low Rate Data Channel surrogate is DMSP RDS (S-band). Aerospace is developing an antenna/receiver potentially suitable for Army “direct receive” capability deployed at small units• Potential as antenna for Mobile Weather Imagery Receipt • Supports current weather during comm-sat loss & ARTY-MET• “Low cost” horn antenna packaging analog electronics and receiver on the structure with “on-board baseband encrypted interface” • Requires tracking mount, PC with mission software and crypto device

Using DMSP F-15 Real-time Data Smooth (RDS) 2.5 km Line Scan and 15-50 km SSM/I and 45-175 km SSM/T as a

NPOESS surrogate for EDR data

Using DMSP F-15 Real-time Data Smooth (RDS) 2.5 km Line Scan and 15-50 km SSM/I and 45-175 km SSM/T as a

NPOESS surrogate for EDR data

NPOESS consolidates DoD DMSP and NOAA POE Satellite programsNPOESS consolidates DoD DMSP and NOAA POE Satellite programs

Exploitation of Next generation METSATExploitation of Next generation METSAT

1. Imagery2. Global Sea Surface Winds (Speed and

Direction)3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST)4. Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Profile5. Atmospheric Vertical Moisture Profile6. Soil Moisture (Surface)7. Cloud Base Height8. Cloud Cover/Layers9. Pressure (surface/profile)10. Precipitation Type/Rate11. Suspended Matter12. Cloud Top Height13. Cloud Optical Thickness14. Snow Cover/Depth15. Land Surface Temperature

16. Precipitable Water17. Cloud Top Temperature18. Aerosol Optical Thickness19. Cloud Ice Water Path20. Vegetation Index21. Cloud Top Pressure22. Surface Temperature23. Global Sea Surface Wind Stress24. Cloud Liquid Water25. Albedo26. Cloud Effective Particle Size27. Total Water Content28. Ocean Color29. Sea Ice Characterization30. Ocean Wave Characteristics-

Significant Wave Height31. Sea Surface Height/Topography

Proposed NPOESS Low Rate Data (LRD) - 3.5 to 4 Mbps satellite broadcasts will support future products. Current draft of priorities include these Environmental Data Records:

Additional Back-Up Information

Additional Back-Up Information

JAVA-Based, Platform Independent Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid (IWEDA)

Mission, System, Sub-system selection

Quick-look weather impact

Digital Map OverlayImplementing Plug-and-Play JAVASpace/JINI Decision Aid subscription services

Number of unique rules currently fielded on IMETS IWEDA ~ 250

Number of additional “shared” rules (duplicates between similar systems) ~ 500

Number of unique new rules recently generated for future IWEDA updates ~ 4,000

INTEGRATED WEATHER EFFECTS DECISION AID (IWEDA) Web Based IWEDA

Command Staffs often have little specific idea of how wind, temperature, fog, … relate to impacts on their systems and operations

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Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet

01 May – 29 Jun 2000

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Forecast/Nowcast Wind Speed Absolute Error

Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet

01 May – 29 Jun 2000

Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept StudyPreliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study

The BFM (green curve) is based totally on the 0 Z and 12 Z forecast data points from the regional Navy NOGAPS.

BFM uses no local observations. BFM here is initialized on NOGAPS that uses a few local met balloon soundings taken 6-12 hrs earlier.

The spring and summer results are consistent.

The 12-station nowcast better meets identified Army requirements from USAIC&FH for 1 deg C temperature and 1 m/s windspeed accuracy

Results may not reflect nowcast error in more complex terrain. These results are based on objective analysis only. ARL meteorologists expect better accuracy when BFM is modified to fuse local data inside the numerical model.

The additional value of nowcasts is to correct for timing errors and missed significant events ( frontal passage, dust storms, flash floods, …). This value is not captured in an “improvement in average error” metric.

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Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet

22 Jan – 28 Feb 2000

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Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept StudyPreliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study

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Forecast/Nowcast Wind Direction Absolute Error

Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet

01 May – 29 Jun 2000

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Forecast/Nowcast Relative Humidity Absolute Error

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22 Jan – 28 Feb 2000

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Forecast/Nowcast Relative Humidity Absolute Error

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01 May – 29 Jun 2000

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22 Jan – 28 Feb 2000

Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept StudyWind Direction and Relative Humidity Error Analysis

Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept StudyWind Direction and Relative Humidity Error Analysis